The last hurdle

Good morning. House Republicans clear a key hurdle to set up a final vote on Donald Trump’s tax bill before Independence Day. Argentina’s shale revolution is roaring to life. And Starlink staff may soon get kayaking perks in Texas. Listen to the day’s top stories.

All over bar the shouting? House Republicans cleared a critical procedural hurdle to advance Donald Trump’s sweeping tax and spending bill after a marathon vote. That sets up a potential final ballot on the package—featuring tax cuts, immigration funding, and repeals of Biden-era green incentives—before the president’s self-imposed July 4 deadline. Gamblers are raising alarm about a tax hike that will affect them. Here’s what’s inside.

The US lifted export license requirements for chip design software sales in China as part of its trade deal with Beijing. China appears to be softening its tone, just days after confirming details of a framework agreement. A senior official said he’s “optimistic” about the future of his country’s ties with the US and that a war between the two would be “unimaginable.”

Jerome Powell’s silence on whether he’ll step down from the Federal Reserve when his term as chair expires next May is muddling Trump’s search for a loyal successor. Trump called for his immediate resignation after the Federal Housing Finance Agency urged Congress to investigate Powell for allegedly “deceptive” testimony about costly Fed HQ renovations. Powell can legally remain a Fed governor until January 2028.

Spice lattes. Starbucks is dangling $6 million in performance-based stock grants for executives who swiftly execute CEO Brian Niccol’s turnaround plan. Unusually timed outside the regular cycle, the incentive signals an urgency to revive sales and confidence in Niccol’s bold strategy to reinvigorate the brand. Aspiring baristas, take heed.

Value investing may have fallen out of favor, but that didn’t stop savvy stock pickers from making a killing last quarter by targeting downtrodden companies. More than 60% of active value managers beat benchmarks by choosing cheap industrials and avoiding laggards like utilities and staples, according to Jefferies. As for today’s market action, it’s all about the payrolls report.

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Deep Dive: Data Hunger Games

OpenAI is tapping Oracle for a colossal 4.5 gigawatts of computing power—enough to power millions of homes—as part of its ambitious $500 billion Stargate project.

The Big Take: Argentina’s Shale-Oil Gambit

In the windswept wilds of Patagonia, Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale is roaring to life, delivering crude that’s as light and sweet as the Permian Basin’s—and cheaper. Fueled by President Javier Milei’s radical economic overhaul, this long-awaited oil boom could rescue Argentina’s economy, or risk it all if the clock runs out before the next election in 2027. It’s a high-stakes energy revolution on the edge of the world.

Opinion

The true tests of Trump’s economic agenda will be whether Michigan and Ohio see a boost to manufacturing jobs, Conor Sen writes. The problem is, economic momentum is trending down, and it’s unclear what’ll turn things around.

Before You Go

Perks and recreation. Elon Musk’s SpaceX is planning to develop a sprawling private recreation complex on land adjacent to his Texas Starlink factory. The Project Echo plan to develop basketball and pickleball courts, picnic areas, and even a floating deck for kayaks, mirrors Musk’s efforts to build an “ecological paradise” at his Tesla facility in the Lone Star state.

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