| Good morning Voornaam, In Ernest Hemingway's novel The Sun Also Rises, he gave us perhaps the GOAT quote about going bankrupt. Here's the conversation between two of the characters:
"How did you go bankrupt?"
"Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly."
In the MultiChoice journey, we haven't reached the "suddenly" phase. We are firmly on the "gradually" trajectory, with absolutely everything resting on the Canal+ deal successfully getting across the line. By investing a fortune in Africa and not getting the basics right in South Africa, MultiChoice has tried to build a flashy castle on a weak foundation. Those foundations are now giving way, as evidenced by MultiChoice South Africa warning the market about a lower dividend going forwards.
This caused the Phuthuma Nathi structure to lose over half its value on Friday. This was the most dependable listed B-BBEE scheme in the market, with many investment entities and individual investors seeing it as a steady source of dividends. It would probably have remained steady, had MultiChoice not decided to throw everything at Africa while ignoring any tech upgrades in South Africa.
Moving on from that mess, we find ourselves at Bell Equipment, where regret must be sinking in for shareholders who blocked the take-private offer at R53 per share. Now trading below R38 and with earnings having nosedived in 2024 as the cycle turned against the company, it's probably going to take a long time to get anywhere close to that offer price again.
Adding to an interesting day of news on Friday, we saw Netcare flagging mid-single digit growth, Safari Investments announcing an exit from Namibia and Telkom putting out a solid earnings update. Orion Minerals released the definitive feasibility studies for the two major projects. Finally, Novus and the TRP still aren't friends.
As always, these details and the Nibbles are available in Ghost Bites at this link>>>
There's a great new Ghost Stories episode dealing with the budget speech. Specifically, I spoke to Tertius Troost of Forvis Mazars in South Africa about whether VAT really is anti-poor and how bracket creep affects middle-class South Africans. Having deliberately waited for the dust to settle before doing this podcast, it's a great way to zoom in on the most important concepts. Get it here>>>
The latest Magic Markets episode continues our theme of looking beyond the US to show you what else is out there. This week, we talked about the macroeconomic outlook for African currencies and the South African companies that would benefit if things went well. We also discussed the elements of offshore acquisitions that can make them successes or failures. Get it here>>>
In case you missed it at the end of last week, CA&S released really strong results. They value the strength and influence of the Ghost Mail audience, so the company has placed its results on the platform along with the investor presentation. This is genuinely one of the best growth stories we've seen on the local market in recent times, so take the opportunity to learn more about them here>>>
Have a great start to your week! |
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| SATRIX: Don't waste the TFSA opportunity |
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| | | Tax-free savings accounts (TFSA) are one of the most building blocks in any equity portfolio. The advantage of compounding tax-free returns over a long period is incredibly powerful and can really turbocharge a long-term wealth creation journey.
To discuss the importance of TFSA investments and the opportunities available to investors in the ETF universe, familiar voice Siyabulela Nomoyi of Satrix returned to the Ghost Stories podcast.
Enjoy it here>>> |
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| GHOST STORIES: VAT strategies, bracket creep and what it means for South Africans |
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| | | With the dust having settled on the Budget Speech and the proposals that parliament will need to vote on, Tertius Troost of Forvis Mazars in South Africa joined me to reflect on the key drivers behind the headlines.
VAT has been the focus area, but is it true that a VAT increase is anti-poor? And is it correct to rebut the “South Africa has a small taxpayer base” argument by pointing out that everyone pays VAT? What is bracket creep and how does it affect middle-class South Africans?
These questions and more are answered in this podcast>>> |
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| GHOST WRAP: Q1 winners on the JSE |
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| In considering how the first few months of the year have played out, some surprising winners have emerged. The performance in gold is simply a case of the sector carrying on where it left off in 2024, but what about platinum? And where did that telecoms rally come from? Also, have retail stocks continued their slide since the previous episode of Ghost Wrap that focused on that issue?
You can find the recording and the transcript (with charts) at this link>>> |
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| GHOST BITES - Making sense of SENS on the local market |
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| | | It's becoming increasingly obvious that MultiChoice is in trouble. Bell Equipment is a victim of the cycle. Netcare and Telkom flagged decent growth. Novus and the TRP are fighting. Safari Investments is exiting Namibia. Orion Minerals released the DFS for both major assets. Get the details in Ghost Bites>>> |
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| Unlock the Stock - Homechoice International |
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| In the 49th edition of Unlock the Stock, Homechoice International made its debut on the platform to talk about the interesting mix of retail and fintech businesses in the group. The recording of the management presentation and interactive Q&A is available at this link>>> |
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| DOMINIQUE OLIVIER - Hot takes: chillies and the human desire for suffering |
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| | | Curry. Con carne. Arrabbiata. Peri-peri. In almost every corner of this world, you’ll find a dish that’s been given the signature bite of the chilli pepper. As strong as they are small, these pungent peppers have achieved the culinary equivalent of world domination, when all they really wanted to do was to get us to stop eating them. Dominique Olivier explains>>> |
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| INVESTEC PODCAST: Global economy - recession or recovery? |
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| | | Recession risks, inflation pressures, and trade tensions - how is the global economy shaping up in 2025? Investec’s Chief Economists, Phil Shaw (UK) and Annabel Bishop (SA), take stock of the latest trends in No Ordinary Wednesday. From global growth forecasts to the economic outlook for Europe and South Africa, they break down what lies ahead in this podcast>>> |
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| International Business Snippet: |
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| Each morning, I scan the international business headlines to look for the most interesting earnings news. Sometimes, it's clear that the "mood" is more important than any underlying updates. I can't remember seeing such a negative mood in the US press since I launched Ghost Mail five years ago. Practically every consumer business is warning of a slower year, with tariffs as a convenient (and often realistic) excuse. Consumer sentiment surveys are returning negative results.
And against this backdrop, Trump is pushing ahead with tariffs that are practically guaranteed to make things more expensive for American consumers.
The old story of buying when there is blood in the streets is absolutely valid. The problem is that I don't think we are anywhere near the blood stage. Many of these companies are still trading at multiples well above their averages. Personally, I'm taking a cautious approach of having a watchlist and keeping cash in reserve for what I expect to be lower prices throughout the year.
Of course, Magic Markets Premium is where you'll find the research that drives my watchlist. This week, we covered BMW as part of our efforts to look at opportunities beyond the US. For our subscribers, the report on BMW drives home the point of how severe the Chinese disruption really is. |
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| Magic Markets: The art of investing in art |
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| | | Magic Markets: Tristanne Farrell isn’t shy to admit it: she’s mildly obsessed with art. As a Senior Wealth Manager at Investec Wealth & Investment International, her day job is to help clients build diversified, successful portfolios. Thankfully, with art as one of the more interesting (and certainly most visually stimulating) alternative assets out there, she gets to enjoy some overlap between her passion and her career, including hosting the Art in Focus podcast series.
She joined us to talk about art as an investment, bringing a mix of genuine passion and solid insights into this asset class. To learn more, listen to this podcast>>> |
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| Macroeconomic indicators and IG Markets macro update |
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| Wall Street futures have fallen as investors brace for President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" on April 2, marking the implementation of new tariffs. This uncertainty has amplified market volatility globally, with exchanges reacting nervously to the looming policy changes. Asian markets are already under pressure, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, where China's technology stocks have entered correction territory due to trade war fears and profit-taking.
European benchmarks are lower with Germany’s DAX40 now trading at roughly ten day lows.
The JSE All-Share Index is expected to open softer today following its international peers in early trade. The rand is however slightly firmer against a depreciating greenback.
The Japanese yen has strengthened as a safe-haven currency, while the US dollar has weakened. Gold prices have surged past $3,100, reflecting investor concerns that the tariffs could lead to inflation and hinder economic growth. Oil prices, however, have eased despite Trump's warnings of potential tariffs on Russian oil buyers, showcasing mixed market sentiment.
Market anxiety is intensifying ahead of reciprocal duties set to be announced on Wednesday. Trump recently hinted that all nations would face tariffs this week, reversing earlier suggestions of exemptions for certain countries. This aggressive stance has heightened fears of inflationary pressures and economic disruptions worldwide.
Key Indicators: USD/ZAR R18.43/$ | US 10yr 4.19% | Gold $3,116/oz | Platinum $1,007/oz | Brent Crude $72.72
As often as practically possible, insights from the IG Markets morning macro update by Shaun Murison will be featured here. Where this isn't possible, only indicators will be provided. If you want to learn more about trading, refer back to The Trader's Handbook, a podcast series that takes you through many of the important principles in trading. |
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