🔍 The focus this week: Europe’s playing limbo to see how low it can go

📆 The European Central Bank (ECB) next meets on Thursday (June 5th). Investors expect a quarter-point cut to come from this one, which would pull interest rates down to 2%. That’s the same size of cut the ECB approved in April, when it lowered the benchmark deposit facility rate to 2.25% – the lowest level since early 2023.

🔮 See, the central bank is expected to forecast future inflation to stay below the 2% target. That reduces the need for higher rates to regulate prices. And, at the same time, the tired economy could use the relief of a trim.

📉 The central bank will likely reduce its growth outlook for Europe’s economy this year, predicting damage from US tariffs and the eurozone’s retaliation. The size of that impact is yet to be seen – but broadly speaking, the higher the tariffs, the bigger the punch.

✌️ Two other factors are putting pressure on inflation. For one, the euro has risen by around 4% against a basket of currencies – 8% against the US dollar since February. That stronger currency makes it cheaper to import goods, which feeds into lower prices for the end consumer. And for another, market prices for oil and gas have fallen by around 25%.

🇪🇺 Investors have toured Europe’s investment scene recently, eager to diversify their previously US-focused portfolios. That has pushed the Stoxx Europe 600 index almost 8% higher this year. And yet, the index still has a valuation of just over 14 times its price-earnings ratio (based on 12 months forward estimates) – almost in line with its 20-year history. In simpler terms, it’s trading at a 35% discount to US stocks. Even when you adjust for different sectors, you’ll see a roughly 24% discount. Now, chasing a rally isn’t usually a recommended strategy – but if concerns about the stability of the US continue, so might the flow into European stocks.

📅 On the calendar

• Monday: Eurozone PMI manufacturing (May), UK PMI manufacturing (May), US PMI manufacturing (May), US ISM manufacturing (May).
• Tuesday: Eurozone inflation (May), US factory orders (April). Earnings: Crowdstrike.
• Wednesday: Eurozone unemployment rate (April), US ISM services (May).
• Thursday: Eurozone PPI (April), ECB interest rate meeting. Earnings: Broadcom, Lululemon.
• Friday: UK house prices (May), eurozone retail sales (April), US payrolls (May). Earnings: Gamestop.

👀 What you might’ve missed last week

🇺🇸 US

• The US Court of International Trade ruled on Wednesday that the “Liberation Day” tariff scheme is illegal, a blow to the White House’s attempt to overhaul global trade. The judgment affects the levies imposed on April 2nd, including the baseline 10% tariff and higher reciprocal duties on many countries. But of course, the only certainty in politics these days is uncertainty. On Thursday, a US federal appeals court unblocked the block “until further notice”.

• Nvidia’s quarterly update was one to behold: revenue was up 69% to $44 billion and profit rose 26%. That was driven by rapidly expanding sales from the data center division – Nvidia’s AI engine. The firm’s CEO said the AI computing market is poised for “exponential growth”, which explains why Nvidia issued a slightly better-than-expected $45 billion revenue forecast for this quarter – even after factoring in $8 billion worth of lost sales in China. No wonder investors pushed the stock back toward January’s record highs.

• May marked a turnaround for Americans. They’d been growing increasingly antsy about the economy and their own finances this year. But, encouraged by the trade deal between the US and China, consumer confidence (measured by the Conference Board Index) rose for the first time since November. The 12-point jump to 98 marked the biggest monthly increase in four years, albeit from a near five-year low.

🌏 Asia

• Tokyo’s core inflation hit a worse-than-feared 3.3% in May, marking the biggest annual increase in two years and increasing the likelihood of an interest rate hike.

• Fast-fashion group Shein was reported to be planning a stock market listing in Hong Kong – not London, as it had long been planning. That will be a blow for the UK’s market, which has seen more tumbleweeds than listings lately. Mind you, the Hong Kong one’s hardly locked in: the listing needs approval from Chinese regulators, and progress has been very slow so far.