📉 The S&P 500's worst showing in years

What’s going on here?

The S&P 500 fell 4.6% over the first three months of the year – its worst quarterly showing since 2022 – after dreary outlooks for the US economy attracted the worst kind of attention.

What does this mean?

America’s tech companies led the slump, proving the old adage “the bigger they are, the harder they fall” correct. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 dropped off by more than 8% last quarter, with Nvidia, Tesla, and Microsoft acting as the market equivalent of lead balloons. More broadly, investors were spooked by the US president’s tariff tirade, with fresh reciprocal ones expected any minute. The levies will almost certainly increase prices for the everyday shopper, possibly bringing about “stagflation” – the dreaded combination of a weak economy and strong inflation. Goldman Sachs is now expecting inflation to stick around for longer and the big bank upped its odds of a recession in the next year to 35%.

Why should I care?

For you personally: Sucks to be a stock…

Stocks might have let you down last quarter, but certain safe-haven assets wouldn’t have. Gold prices broke records while 10-year Treasury bonds picked up by almost 4%. So, note to self: it’s wise to spread your portfolio across different asset classes and geographies. Diversification is a trusted rule of thumb for a reason, helping to offset losses in one area with stability or upticks in others.

Zooming out: Raise your Aperol Spritz for Europe.

US investors have long been rewarded for blocking out the rest of the world – but not last quarter. Europe’s Stoxx 600 stormed ahead of the S&P 500 by nearly 17 percentage points in dollar terms – the biggest-ever difference during a single quarter. The region’s comparatively cheaper stocks have looked more attractive lately, thanks to a significant spending push from Germany (the bloc’s biggest economy) into defense and infrastructure.

What’s going on here?

This year’s Easter festivities will cost you extra: eggs are roughly twice as expensive in the US, while the chocolate versions are up nearly 50% in the UK.

What does this mean?

America’s headlines have been egged this year – literally. Retail prices of the popular protein have nearly doubled from this time last year to hit record highs. That’s due to a one-two punch of inflation and a bird flu outbreak, devastating poultry farms across the States. So those aesthetically dyed Easter eggs will cost a pretty penny this year. And that’s not all: expect the chocolate versions to hurt your wallet, too. Cocoa crops have suffered from droughts over the last year, restricting supply and pushing prices up – even notching a record high in January.

Why should I care?

For you personally: Volume eaters, beware.

“Shrinkflation” is (probably) coming to a store near you. That’s when companies reduce the size or quality of their products without shrinking the price to match. Heck, sometimes they even jack the price up more. To get the best deal, check the “price per ounce” on the tag – for chocolate bunnies, but also for groceries in general. It’s a good way to compare differently sized products like-for-like, stripping out the influence of packaging.

Zooming out: Snacks aren’t just a staple for your pantry…

Investors have lost their appetite for some US stocks this year, but not consumer staples. Those companies – which make things that shoppers actually need – are generally able to increase their prices without losing customers, so they tend to perform well no matter the state of the economy. This “pricing power” even seems to have offset concerns that an Ozempic-led resurgence in diet culture would restrict demand for sweet and salty treats. Just look at Mondelez: the world’s biggest snack maker’s stock is up 14% this year.