The Stakes 2020: Texts With Rep. Jim Himes, and the Biden Line

THE LEDE

We just finished the first day of public impeachment hearings on Capitol Hill, and while this newsletter is supposed to be focused on the 2020 election, that’s the center of the political universe and of my attention. So I roped one of the key Democrats on the Intel committee into texting with me, below.

But even as all eyes look toward Washington, the plates are shifting in Iowa and other places the Democrats’ future is being decided. Here are two things to watch:

The Biden Line: The Iowa caucuses in early February are where we really learn who is in the race for president, and one of the wisest observers of Democratic primary politics made the following prediction to me this week: That the only candidates who survive Iowa will be the ones who beat Joe Biden, who is slowly sliding in the polls and who seems on track to make it his Waterloo. According to this prediction, the candidates above the Biden Line will advance to New Hampshire with a chance at victory. (Biden himself, in his theory, is right below the line.)

Mike’s Money: As Mike Bloomberg contemplates running for president, there are two key things to understand about his money. The first is that it’s effectively unlimited. He’s the new kind of rich — not Upper East Side society rich, not even wildly successful Tom Steyer rich. He could drop triple the amount of Steyer’s net worth into a political campaign without feeling it.

The second is that Bloomberg won’t just (or even primarily) buy TV ads. Mike has always bought people too. An old colleague of mine in New York’s City Hall once told me that Bloomberg “reversed the flow of corruption.” In his New York, the mayor bribed you. If he runs, expect a wild array of progressive people and groups — the ones he’s funded for years, and the ones he just hired to do...not that much — to intensely, inexplicably, really, really like the guy.

READ RECEIPTS

TEXTING WITH JIM HIMES

Jim Himes is a six-term member of Congress from Connecticut’s prosperous southern coast, and a senior Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee. He went a bit viral last week with an appearance on Meet The Press, where he yelled about Rand Paul and false equivalency and urged Democrats to keep it simple — just call it “corruption,” not a quid pro quo. On Wednesday during the hearing, he focused on that message: that Trump was engaged in “corruption.” We texted just after the hearing concluded.

ON THE TRAIL WITH BUZZFEED NEWS

Deval Patrick is jumping into the 2020 race, Darren reports. A bit late!

Nidhi went to Florida to talk about the shady characters who have found themselves in the center of the impeachment story — and found that everyone in Florida politics assumes you’re wearing a wire for the feds.

From Zahra: Elizabeth Warren wants to punish companies like Exxon for lying to federal agencies.

Kadia interviewed Rep. Pete King a few days after he announced his retirement, who says he’s voted against impeachment once and he’s planning on doing so again.

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