| | | | Monday, August 7, 2023 | | Alvin Kamara's suspension was finally handed down Friday, and you might be surprised to learn that I didn't move him down in my rankings at all. | | Kamara was hit with a three-game suspension for his part in a fight in February of 2022, after meeting with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell last week. I had been expecting a suspension of anywhere from 2 to 4 games, which is why I didn't move him down here. I still think there's room for him to be a solid No. 2 RB for Fantasy when he's active – I've got him projected for his fewest carries per game since his rookie season and his lowest target share ever, and he still comes out as RB19 in points per game for me. | | Now, of course, there's always a chance the Saints get off to a strong start with Jamaal Williams and rookie Kendre Miller looking better than expected and they just don't feel a need to make room for Kamara, which opens up some pretty ugly downside scenarios, which is why even I'm not ranking him as high as I'm projecting him. But there's also room for a bit of upside, where Kamara could return to a team desperate for playmaking and ends up averaging 14-plus carries and gets back to being an 18% target share guy and absolutely smashes as a low-end RB1 in an improved offense. | | | | Kamara remains RB29 for me after the suspension, while Williams and Miller are more like dart throws after the 100th pick. There's some upside with both, but unless it starts to look like Miller is a real threat for three-down work, I'm not sure there's a clear enough path for either to be worth much more than that. | | And with that out of the way, we're shifting gears for the rest of today's newsletter. You'll see where I've got Kamara, Williams, and Miller ranked in tomorrow's newsletter, but today, we're focusing on the QB position. I've got my latest rankings for the QB position ready for you, plus Salary Cap Draft values down at the bottom. But first, my thoughts on the state of the QB position heading into 2023, plus a quick introduction to this year's rookie class, and some sleeper, breakout, and bust picks for the position. | | We'll go through RB tomorrow, WR on Wednesday, and TE Thursday, before we take a look at some of the biggest questions heading into the first full week of preseason action this weekend. Draft season is heating up, and here's what you need to know about QBs: | | | | The State of the QB position | | | | Last year was a weird year for the QB position. The top options at the position were about as good as they ever have been, with the players ranked No. 1 through 4 in points per game (min. 8 games), averaged at least 26 points per game, second-highest average for those spots in the past five seasons. | | But it was kind of a disaster after that. The No. 5 QB averaged just 22.4 points per game, the lowest average for the No. 5 QB over the past five seasons, and that was true for every other spot in the rankings until you got to 15th. | | Which meant that the truly elite quarterbacks were more important than ever. And, they were also uniformly expensive options – Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes were top-three in ADP, Joe Burrow was QB5, and Jalen Hurts was QB7. If you wanted a true difference maker at QB last season, you had to pay for them. | | | | Though that's not to say that paying for a QB guaranteed a difference maker. Justin Herbert was QB2, ahead of Mahomes, and he finished as a top-six QB just three times all season; Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray had their moments, but injuries ultimate derailed both of their seasons, and they went off the board ahead of Hurts; it's better if we just don't talk about Russell Wilson (QB8 in ADP). | | Which is to say, last year doesn't necessarily provide any easy, obvious answers for how to approach the QB position. But one thing has become clear from drafting in 2023: If you want one of the high-end QBs, you're going to have to pay for them. Here's what NFC ADP looks like for the top-12 QBs over the past two weeks, with last year's ADP for each spot in parenthesis: | | Patrick Mahomes – 13.7 (28.49)Josh Allen – 20.04 (42.62)Jalen Hurts – 20.28 (44.51)Joe Burrow – 33.76 (61.18)Lamar Jackson – 36.43 (65.62)Justin Herbert – 38.55 (68.27) Justin Fields – 50.0 (70.44)Trevor Lawrence – 51.64 (83.94) Deshaun Watson – 72.12 (88.23)Tua Tagovailoa – 93.28 (88.57)Dak Prescott – 98.55 (98.95) Kirk Cousins – 101.73 (100.74) | | The trend is clear: Everyone wants a difference maker at the QB position! And rightly so! Being able to count on elite production is a huge differentiator. Allen and Mahomes both had at least 10 weeks as a top-six finisher, while Hurts did it nine times in 15 games; no other player had more than seven, and Burrow was the only player with more than six. That kind of high-end, bankable production is absolutely worth chasing. | | But the chase can go overboard. While that top three is, rightly, in a tier of their own – and rightly in the second round, in my opinion – you can see how the rest of the position is being inflated. QB4 through QB9 are all going at least a round ahead of where they did a year ago, with the hopes you can get one of those true difference makers at the position. | | But as I wrote a few months back, I'm not necessarily chasing that next-best-thing tier. I'm fine with Mahomes, Allen, and Hurts going off the board in the first two or three rounds, but I view Jackson, Burrow, Herbert, and Fields as more like fifth- or sixth-round players; Lawrence is another couple of rounds behind them and should be drafted closer to Tagovailoa, in my view). | | Which means I'm either going with one of the proven elite options, or I'm waiting. That doesn't mean that second tier can't be worth what they cost; every single one of them has 30-point upside. But, by pushing them into the third or fourth round, we're asking them to do something they either have never done before, or haven't done it in long enough to discount their chances. If one of Jackson, Burrow, Fields, or Herbert is there in the fifth round, I'll take them. If not, I'm probably taking Tagovailoa around 100th overall and pairing him with an upside play like Aaron Rodgers or Kyler Murray later. | | I'm calling it the "Hero or Zero" QB strategy. | | Meet the rookies | | Earlier in the offseason, Dave Richard profiled the rookies at every position. Here's who you need to know about from the 2023 NFL Draft class at QB: | | Anthony Richardson, Colts – No. 4 overall | | Draft outlook: Richardson will be one of the first 12 quarterbacks taken in every league, but it's a byproduct of his immense upside and the multitude of quarterbacks who are good enough to start on your teams but not good enough to be a top-100 pick. Richardson should get taken before the end of Round 8. | | Bryce Young, Panthers – No. 1 overall | | Draft outlook: No one should be compelled to take Young unless it's in a Superflex/two-QB league (where he's a top-20 type of option). There simply are too many veteran passers in better situations that managers would rather commit to. | | C.J. Stroud, Texans – No. 2 overall | | Draft outlook: Stroud won't get taken outside of two-QB leagues, where he'll be around the 20th passer off the board (probably after Young and definitely after Richardson). Other veteran QBs are safer bets with more upside. | | Will Levis, Titans – No. 32 overall | | Draft outlook: Levis won't get picked until late in Superflex/two-QB formats, which is to say he's unlikely to get picked at all in one-QB leagues. Only a change in Tannehill's status would alter that. | | Sleepers, breakouts, and busts | | Kyler Murray, Cardinals – Murray has said he's hoping to be ready for Week 1, but seeing as that'll be just over nine months since he had surgery to repair his ACL, that might be asking too much. We should see him sometime early in the season, though he probably won't look like himself for a while – we know how important rushing is to his game – so you shouldn't draft Murray expecting him to be an impact Fantasy option early on. But he could certainly end up being one eventually, and he makes perfect sense as a late-round stash who could end up being a must-start Fantasy option for the most important parts of the season. Murray hasn't emerged as the elite QB we hoped he would be, but he averaged 22.7 points per game in his 10 healthy games last season (would have been QB5), and averaged 24.8 per game in 2021. | | Justin Herbert, Chargers – Sometimes, "breakouts" are just "bounce-backs," and that's mostly what I expect from Herbert. Remember, he averaged 26-plus points per game in each of his first two NFL seasons, before injuries to both him and his top weapons (and star left tackle, to boot) held him back in 2022. For context, Burrow's 2022 matched Herbert's best season in points per game. And now, Herbert has a new first-round wide receiver and a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore who ran an aggressive, fast-paced offense in Dallas. If all Herbert does is get back to his 2020-21 production, he's a great pick more than a round in ADP after Burrow; if he takes a step forward, he might challenge for the No. 1 QB spot. | | Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars – This is one of the bust picks where it's mostly about the price. I like Lawrence, and I think it's unlikely he isn't at least worth starting for Fantasy. But he needs to be a whole lot better than just "worst starting" based on where he's going – he's QB7 in NFC ADP, just ahead of Justin Fields. Fields outscored him by 2.1 points per game last season, and feels at least as likely to take a big step forward as Lawrence. Lawrence had 12 games with fewer than 20 Fantasy points last season, and was really only a difference maker in Fantasy for one five-game stretch, when he had 13 of his 25 passing touchdowns between Weeks 10 and 15. Lawrence is a good player who is surrounded by plenty of weapons, but if I'm going to spend a fourth-round pick on a QB, I'd rather spend it on Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, or Fields, all of whom go within 12 picks of Lawrence right now. | | QB Tiers | | Here's how Dave is breaking down the tiers at QB. For the rest, and his thoughts on the position, head here: | Tier 1: Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen
Tier 2: Joe Burrow, Justin Fields, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence
Tier 3: Tua Tagovailoa, Anthony Richardson
Tier 4: Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson, Kirk Cousins
Tier 5: Geno Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Daniel Jones, Jared Goff, Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray | | Rankings/Salary Cap Values values | | Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs – $21Josh Allen, Bills – $17Jalen Hurts, Eagles – $16Lamar Jackson, Ravens – $8Joe Burrow, Bengals – $6 Justin Herbert, Chargers – $5Justin Fields, Bears – $5Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars – $4Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins – $3Anthony Richardson, Colts – $3Deshaun Watson, Browns – $3Dak Prescott, Cowboys – $2Geno Smith, Seahawks – $2 Daniel Jones, Giants – $2Kirk Cousins, Vikings – $2Aaron Rodgers, Jets – $2Matthew Stafford, Rams – $1Kyler Murray, Cardinals – $1 Russell Wilson, Broncos – $1Jared Goff, Lions – $1 Derek Carr, Saints – $1Jordan Love, Packers – $0 Brock Purdy, 49ers – $0 Ryan Tannehill, Titans – $0 Kenny Pickett, Steelers – $0 Sam Howell, Commanders – $0Desmond RIdder, Falcons – $0 Mac Jones, Patriots – $0C.J. Stroud, Texans – $0Bryce Young, Panthers – $0 Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers – $0 Jimmy Garoppolo, Raiders – $0 | | | | | | | | The First Cut | | Morning Footy | The First Cut takes you inside the ropes of the golf world, on the PGA Tour and beyond. Tournament previews and picks, deep dives into the players and storylines that matter in the sport of golf.
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