| | | | Thursday, October 17, 2024 | | The story of the changing second base landscape is also, at least in part, a story about the end of the juiced ball era. | | For most of baseball history, you basically never saw second basemen who hit for power. Prior to 2009, there had never been a season in MLB history where 10 second-base eligible players for Fantasy had at least 20 homers. Prior to the steroid era, there had never even been a season where even four second basemen had 20-plus homers, if you'd believe it. | | The steroid era changed the way the position played, but it wasn't until the past decade or so that things really changed. Beginning in and running through 2023, there were at least 14 second basemen to hit at least 20 homers in every season but one (not counting the shortened 2020 season). The juiced ball era didn't just juice power numbers for second baseman, of course, but there's no question that second baseman suddenly became overrepresented among the league's power hitters – from 2014 through 2023, 13.6% of the 20-homer seasons in the majors were by second basemen, while it was just 7.9% for the prior 10 seasons. | | In 2024, that shrunk back down to 6.7%, as only seven second basemen hit 20-plus homers. And, of those seven, only one hit 25-plus homers – Ketel Marte and his 36 homers were 13 more than anyone else at the position. Additionally, of those seven, only five will actually retain second base eligibility, as Spencer Steer and Ryan McMahon didn't reach the 20-game marker to keep it. | | | | Which is all to say, second base certainly isn't the strongest position in Fantasy these days. In fact, I'd argue it's probably the weakest non-catcher position at this point, dominated as it is by guys in their 30s like Marte, Jose Altuve, and Marcus Semien . In 2024, only five players at the position managed to hit at least .270 with even 15 homers here, so you just aren't going to find many big bats here. | | What you will find is speed, at least, as 10 different players had at least 25 steals. Though, the problem there is that the speed threats here tend to be pretty one-dimensional. Nico Hoerner was the only player at the position with more than 24 steals and a .270 or better batting average, and he had just seven homers and 48 steals; Jose Altuve, Luis Garcia, Tyler Fitzgerald, and Mookie Betts are the only players at the position to have at least 15 homers, 15 steals, and a .270 average. | | So, you're either drafting a second baseman in one of the first four or so rounds, or you're going to have to make a sacrifice somewhere. This is how the second base position played in Fantasy for a long time before the juiced ball era, and it seems like we're sliding back to those days. It doesn't help that some late-season second base breakouts like Connor Norby and Xavier Edwards won't be eligible there, at least to open the season. | | There is some hope here looking ahead to 2025, particularly in the DMV area, as Jordan Westburg, Luis Garcia, and Jackson Holliday could all have some breakout potential. And there are a few prospects at second base who could make the position look a little better. But, as things stand here in October, second base sure looks like the weakest position in Fantasy. Again. | | We're continuing our position recap/early-preview series this week by taking a look at second base. In case you missed it, you can check out my thoughts on catcher and first base here, and my way-too-early rankings for every position can be found here -- and if you want to go even deeper, Scott White's top 20 for both Roto and H2H leagues can be found for second base here. We'll be back next week with some bust candidates for 2025, plus a deep dive on the third base position as the series continues. | | | | 2024 Second Base Review | | 2024 top-12 finishers | | Ketel Marte, ARI: 0.292 - 93 - 36 - 95 - 7Jose Altuve, HOU: 0.295 - 94 - 20 - 65 - 22Brice Turang, MIL: 0.254 - 72 - 7 - 57 - 50Mookie Betts, LAD: 0.289 - 75 - 19 - 75 - 16Spencer Steer, CIN: 0.225 - 74 - 20 - 92 - 25 Luis Garcia, WAS: 0.282 - 58 - 18 - 70 - 22Nico Hoerner, CHC: 0.273 - 86 - 7 - 48 - 31Marcus Semien, TEX: 0.237 - 101 - 23 - 74 - 8Maikel Garcia, KC: 0.231 - 84 - 7 - 58 - 37 Ceddanne Rafaela, BOS: 0.246 - 70 - 15 - 75 - 19Bryson Stott, PHI: 0.245 - 65 - 11 - 57 - 32 Andres Gimenez, CLE: 0.252 - 64 - 9 - 63 - 30Luis Arraez, SD: 0.314 - 83 - 4 - 46 - 9 | | The bottom half of that top 12 is pretty depressing, no? Just a bunch of one-category contributors who don't really have much of a path to becoming much more than they already are. And a couple of them won't even be eligible in 2025 – so you can slot Willi Castro (.247-89-12-60-14) and Jose Caballero (.227-53-9-44-44) in instead. Yippee! | | Biggest Breakout from 2024 | | Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks | | We typically don't see guys break out in their 30s, but in fairness to Marte, he had shown this kind of upside in the past. Before his 36-homer season in 2024, he had 32 back in 2019 – in the heart of the juiced ball era. I think most probably wrote that off as a product of the era, but 2024 was Marete's third season with an OPS of at least .900 – in 2021, he had 14 homers and 29 doubles in just 90 games. And he has also consistently posted the kind of exit velocities and quality of contact metrics to indicate there might still be 30-homer upside here if he could just stay healthy. | | Of course, Marte didn't just (mostly) stay healthy: He was also better than ever in his age-30 season. His average exit velocity leapt from a career-high of 91.1 mph in 2023 all the way to 94 mph in 2024, the sixth-best mark in baseball. Just ahead of Vladimir Guerrero and Kyle Schwarber . Those dudes are, obviously, legit power hitters, and Marte was, too, at least in 2024. I don't think it's reasonable to expect a repeat of his 2024 dominance in 2025, but I do think he probably has the strongest all-around skill set at the second base position at this point, thanks to his strong contact skills, at least, plus power, and line drive swing. Even if I don't expect a repeat of 2024, I think he should be the clear No. 1 player at the position. | | Biggest Bust from 2024 | | Marcus Semien, Rangers | | Semien is a tough one to figure out. He was, along with Altuve, the class of the position for the half-decade before 2024, and he was still a solid starting option even in a down year. But there were some real warts in his profile, and it was always a profile that felt like the bottom could fall out fairly quickly. Semien has never hit the ball especially hard, relying instead on making lots of contact and optimizing for pull-side power. It's a trick that made him a lot of money, but it's also a skill set that tends to fall apart pretty quickly – just look at Nolan Arenado for a similar situation that seems unsalvageable. | | On the other hand, Semien's skill set doesn't look that different than it had in recent years. He had a .319 expected wOBA, which was a step back from 2023 but was actually just his third-worst since his 2019 emergence as a star. The biggest issue is that, after six straight seasons of outperforming his expected stats – thanks in large part to that pull-side power swing – he actually underperformed his xwOBA in 2024 by 13 points. Was that the result of a slippage in skills? Or just bad luck? I'm more inclined to believe it's the latter than the former, and I'm probably going to bet on a Semien bounceback in 2025. Even if it doesn't happen, a repeat of 2024 would still make him a very solid option at a position without many of them, and he'll certainly come at a discount relative to where he's been drafted in recent years. | | | | Biggest rankings movers from 2024 to 2025 | | Up: Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks; Luis Garcia, Nationals; Brice Turang, Brewers | | The question with Garcia is a fairly straightforward one: Do the Nationals view him as an everyday player or not? In 2024, they didn't, limiting him to 126 starts, which is why he managed just 128 combined runs and RBI despite a very solid .282/.318/.444 line. It's a very Fantasy-friendly skill set with 20-20 upside if he plays every day, but the Nationals didn't really use Garcia anymore in the second half against lefties, and if they weren't willing to do that while playing out the string of a season with no playoff aspirations, can we really expect them to do it in a year they presumably expect to take a step forward? There's top-five upside here if he does play every day, but I don't tend to think it's a good bet to make, unfortunately. | | The good news for Turang is he never stopped running. The bad news is he definitely stopped hitting. From July 1 on, he hit just .214/.275/.277, with too much swing-and-miss in his game for someone with little to no power to make up for it. It didn't really cost him too much playing time in the second half, but it feels like there is very little separating Turang from a low-usage, utility role on a roster with a lot of redundant parts. You cannot draft Turang as anything more than a steals specialist for 2025, I think. | | Down: Bryson Stott, Phillies; Gleyber Torres, Yankees; Zack Gelof, Athletics | | Stott collapsed to basically unplayable levels against lefties, hitting .223/.318/.277 against them after a solid 2023, and he just didn't do enough else to make up for it. In theory, he should be a solid source of batting average and a steals standout in a very good Phillies lineup. But if he's going to hit below .260, I'm not sure he does enough else well to be anything more than a decent steals specialist. | | There were enough weird baserunning blunders that I think you have to wonder if things went wrong for Torres mentally in 2024. His performance collapsed pretty much across the board as a 27-year-old heading into free agency, and I'm inclined to chalk it up to the pressure getting the better of him. The good news is Torres was better in the second half, hitting .292/.361/.419 after the break, and I tend to think he'll be a solid bounceback candidate wherever he signs this offseason. | | Rather than building on a solid debut, Gelof took a big step backward in pretty much every way possible in 2024. The good news is he's likely still looking at an everyday role, at least to open 2025. But he'll need to improve on his 40%-plus whiff rate against both breaking balls and offspeed pitches if he's going to have any chance of maintaining a long MLB career. There's a bit of pop and speed here and a swing geared to making the most of that pop when he does make contact. But Gelof looks like a fringe MLB player if he doesn't make significant improvements to his contact skills in 2025. I'm fine drafting him with a bench pick in a deeper categories league next season to see if he makes those gains, but he has no margin for error at this point. | | Offseason preview | | Who needs an upgrade most? | | Red Sox second basemen hit just .200/.250/.282 in 2024 with -2.3 WAR, per FanGraphs.com, so that feels like a pretty good place to start. I don't know if they're even looking to give Vaughn Grissom another chance, given how poorly he played when given the opportunity in an injury-plagued season, but getting even average play from the second base position might give Boston the biggest boost any would-be contender could hope for this offseason. | | The Giants, Twins, and Pirates could also certainly use some help at second base, but there's one other surprising team in the bottom 10 in WAR for second base: The Orioles. Jackson Holliday was the main anchor on the position, but he's also the likeliest reason why they won't pursue any kind of upgrade there. He's far too young for 2025 to be labeled a "sink-or-swim" kind of season – he won't even be 22 by the end of next season – but if he doesn't figure it out, that still looms as one of the potential key weaknesses for any contender. | | Top impending free agents | | Ha-seong KimGleyber TorresThairo EstradaBrandon Lowe* Jorge Polanco* | | *Both have team options for $10.5-12 million for 2025 | | Kim has a mutual option for 2025 that he is expected to turn down, and with the Padres' gigantic salaries, it seems unlikely that he'll be back. He won't be 2B eligible to open 2025, but if he signs somewhere with an in-house shortstop, a return to the keystone would certainly be good for his value. He regressed as a hitter after a breakout 2023, but he's a decent enough all-around contributor that he'd be in the top-12 discussion if he was eligible. | | I'm inclined to believe Torres is going to have a solid bounceback, and is an interesting candidate for a one-year prove-it deal. The same could be said for Estrada, who heads into free agency coming off an absolutely disastrous season where his offensive skill set completely collapsed. He never had a huge margin for error, but he's been a solid bat the previous few seasons and could help make the position look a bit deeper if he bounces back. | | Trade candidates | | Brandon Lowe | | The fact that Lowe has a perfectly reasonable, market-value contract for the next two seasons means the Rays very well may decide now is the time to part ways with him. Jonathan Aranda 's late-season emergence may help justify that decision, as the two seemingly have similar skill sets. Lowe will have injury concerns wherever he goes, but I do think any potential trade would likely be a net positive for his value – even amid another very good season, he played just 90 of 114 games after his return from injury in late May. Lowe holds his own well enough against lefties (.737 OPS) that he should be a viable everyday player, and that would certainly help his otherwise underwhelming counting stats. | | Gorman is an interesting case. There's clearly talent here, as the 24-year-old hit 19 homers in just 107 games in 2024 after hitting 27 in 119 games the year before. But his hit tool absolutely collapsed last season, earning him a trip back to Triple-A – where he hit just .205 in 23 games. Gorman feels like a classic change-of-scenery candidate, and getting away from St. Louis might not be a bad thing, given their struggles developing young guys in the majors lately. | | Top 2025 rookies to know | | Kristian Campbell, Red Sox – Campbell might be the single biggest reason to be optimistic about second base after his breakout season. The 2023 fourth-round pick mashed his way all the way to Triple-A this season and will likely be a consensus top-20 prospect in baseball heading into next season. He had 20 homers and 24 steals in his first full professional season and looks like a potential superstar at this point. Travis Bazzana, Guardians – Bazzana figures to move quickly, but after he hit just .238/.369/.396 with some uncharacteristic contact issues in his first taste of pro ball, hopes of an early 2025 debut seem unlikely to come true. We could still see the No. 1 overall pick from the 2024 draft sometime next season, but I'd expect it to be closer to the summer. Termarr Johnson, Pirates – Johnson's prospect standing has taken a hit since he was the No. 4 pick in 2022, but he's still pacing for a potential 2025 debut. A patient hitter with good pop and athleticism, he's held back by an inconsistent swing at this point and would need to really pop this season to have a chance at a big-league debut. Luke Keaschall, Twins – Keaschall got up to Double-A and more than held his own, hitting .281/.393/.439 in 58 games as a 21-year-old. I'd be surprised if he broke camp with the Twins in 2025, but he is clearly on the fast track and brings 20-20 upside to the table. JJ Wetherholt, Cardinals – Wetherholt hasn't played above Low-A yet, so he's probably further away than most here. But the No. 7 pick in last year's draft as a three-year starter out of West Virginia could move quickly. He stole just eight games across 67 games between college and the pros while dealing with hamstring issues, so the hope here is he runs a bit more to make the overall profile look a bit more impressive. Christian Moore, Angels – The Angels are more aggressive than any team in baseball with prospect promotions, so it's not out of the question we'll see Moore early on in 2025. He had some swing-and-miss issues in his pro debut, but his max-effort swing generates tons of power for any position, and he could be one of the next 20-homer 2B sooner than later. Adael Amador, Rockies – The Rockies called Amador up from Double-A as a 21-year-old, and he looked understandably overwhelmed in his 10-game cup of coffee. He hit just .230/.343/.376 in Double-A, but showed a bit of power and a bunch of speed (35 homers in 100 games) while still being pretty young for his level. I'd bet he opens the season at Triple-A, but if the Rockies want to be aggressive again, he could have a chance to crack the Opening Day lineup, and playing in Coors Field should help paper over some of the batting average issues he had last season. | | | | | | | | Grey Cup | | NWSL | We are one month away from the biggest game in Canadian Football! Mark your calendars for 111th Grey Cup on November 17th at 6 ET on CBS Sports Network.
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