| | | | Friday, October 25, 2024 | | Is Jose Ramirez at third base the most "Tier of One" player at any position right now? It's not that there aren't other great players at third base because, obviously, there are. But Ramirez is a no-doubt-about-it first-round pick in 2025, probably a top-five one in most leagues, and I'm not sure anyone else at the position is even guaranteed to be a second-rounder at this point. | | Rafael Devers and Austin Riley were second-rounders in 2024, of course, but both struggled at times – Riley early on, Devers later – and both saw their seasons ended by injuries, which is enough to drop them down a few spots in the rankings for most. And after those two, you've got Manny Machado and Jazz Chisholm, who figure to be fairly early picks but probably another round or two beyond Riley and Devers. | | Which is to say, there might be a 20-pick gap between Ramirez and the No. 2 player at the position and possibly a 40-pick gap between him and the No. 4 player. I think you could make a case for Ketel Marte having a similar gap on the competition at second base – I get the feeling Scott White might – but the fact that Ramirez might be a top-five pick and Marte more like a late-second rounder just makes that gap meaningfully more significant for Ramirez. | | Ramirez is, of course, coming off arguably his best season ever, as he finished just a double and a homer shy of a 40-40-40 season, with a huge bounce back in his counting stats after a weirdly down season in 2023. Entering his age-32 season, it seems reasonable to think he won't have another season quite as good as 2024 again, but he's also averaging 32 homers, 29 steals, 100 runs, and 107 RBI over the past four seasons combined and has been running more over the past couple of seasons since the rules changed to open up base stealing opportunities, so I can hardly make any kind of case that he's not worth ranking well ahead of the rest of the position. | | | | The bigger question to me at third base is, "Who should be No. 2?" Devers and Riley are, like I said, coming off relatively down seasons, while Machado's overall game has been a bit underwhelming relative to the true standouts at the position over the past couple of seasons. An elbow injury he played through in 2023 and had surgery on last offseason could help explain why things have gone (relatively) wrong for Machado, but betting on a 32-year-old to have a big bounce back isn't necessarily something you should be doing. | | Which raises an interesting question: Should Chisholm be in the discussion for the No. 2 third baseman in 2025? He was just the No. 5 player at the position in 2024, but three of the guys ahead of him won't be eligible at 3B in 2025; among players who are, then, he was already the No. 2 3B! The case against Chisholm primarily comes down to health, as 2024 is the first time since 2021 Chisholm has played more than 100 games – and, it's worth noting, he missed time in September with a fairly significant elbow injury he ended up playing through, so it's not like he avoided health issues despite playing a career-high 147 games. | | But Chisholm finished with 24 homers and 40 stolen bases and was significantly better in both regards after the trade to New York, putting up a 162-game pace of 39 homers and 63 stolen bases. Do I think Jazz Chisholm is just suddenly peak Ronald Acuña because he has a short fence in right field to aim for in half his games? Of course not! But we got excited about the trade to New York for a reason, and we just saw a one-third-season sample where he absolutely played like a first-rounder there. With questions surrounding the other candidates for the No. 2 third base spot, Chisholm deserves to be in the discussion, at the very least. | | And part of the reason I'm willing to roll the dice on Chisholm as a third-round pick (at least) in 2025 is because the position gets pretty thin after him. Like Scott White did here, I'm ranking Chisholm as my No. 5 third baseman, but there's going to be a pretty big gap between him and the next guys up – likely Jordan Westburg , though he's more likely to be used at the even shallower second base position if you draft him. Beyond Westburg, you've got Alex Bregman, Royce Lewis, Matt Chapman, Alec Bohm, Eugenio Suarez, and Junior Caminero , all of whom have upside, certainly, but not to the same extent as Chisholm, and all of whom have significant downside questions of their own. | | But one thing I think is clear looking ahead to 2025 is there might not be a single sure thing at this position outside of Ramirez. I have a lot of confidence in Devers, Riley, Machado, and Chisholm, but if things go sideways and any of them finish 2025 outside of the top-75 hitters, I really wouldn't be particularly surprised. So, you might be faced with the choice of paying a premium for upside that carries more risk than at other positions in the same range of the draft or waiting at third base and potentially missing out on anyone who could make a true impact. | | Of course, just because it looks like that right now, in October, five months away from Spring Training, doesn't mean it will look like this forever. Riley and Devers have been borderline first-round picks before and are still in their primes; Lewis and Westburg look like potential superstars; Caminero might have even more upside than either, and Vientos could be the next Austin Riley. Worrying too much about positional scarcity can often be a mistake, so it should only ever be used as a tie-breaker between players across positions. | | We're continuing our "State of the Position" series today with a look at where third base stands. You've heard a bunch of my thoughts on this already, but I've got more for you below, including a recap of 2024, a preview of 2025, and some rookies to keep in mind. Scott White's thoughts on third base can be found here, and you can see my thoughts on catcher, first base, and second base as the first three parts of the series. We'll be back next week to go deep on shortstop and outfield, the two deepest positions in Fantasy, before turning our eyes to the pitching side of things after that. | | | | 2024 Third Base Review | | 2024 top-12 finishers | | Jose Ramirez, CLE: 0.279 - 114 - 39 - 118 - 41Elly De La Cruz, CIN: 0.259 - 105 - 25 - 76 - 67Gunnar Henderson , BAL: 0.281 - 118 - 37 - 92 - 21 Vladimir Guerrero, TOR: 0.323 - 98 - 30 - 103 - 2Jazz Chisholm, NYY: 0.256 - 74 - 24 - 73 - 40Manny Machado, SD: 0.275 - 77 - 29 - 105 - 11Matt Chapman, SF: 0.247 - 98 - 27 - 78 - 15Eugenio Suarez, ARI: 0.256 - 90 - 30 - 101 - 2 Rafael Devers, BOS: 0.272 - 87 - 28 - 83 - 3Spencer Steer, CIN: 0.225 - 74 - 20 - 92 - 25Alex Bregman, HOU: 0.26 - 79 - 26 - 75 - 3Maikel Garcia , KC: 0.231 - 84 - 7 - 58 - 37 | | We think of second base as being a shallower position for Fantasy than third base, and you can see that here, as Maikel Garcia is the No. 12 3B compared to the No. 9 2B. But still... Maikel Garcia was really a top-12 3B? With zero power and a .237 batting average? Yeah, things are pretty grim here, and it's even worse than this makes it appear, as three of the top four finishers from last season won't even be 3B eligible for 2025. More than at maybe any other position, Ramirez feels like a one-man tier at the top. | | Biggest Breakout from 2024 | | Mark Vientos, Mets | | Vientos made huge strides with his plate discipline, allowing his plus raw power to play up in games at the major-league level, something there was real concern about before this season. To be clear, there is still a lot of swing and miss in Vientos' game -- his in-zone contact rate is just 75%, well below the league average of 82%, and he chases pitches out of the strike zone a lot more than average, too. It's a tough approach to make work, but not exactly an impossible one; Rafael Devers is a great hitter with an even lower in-zone contact rate in 2024, as was Teoscar Hernandez . | | But it does leave Vientos with a narrow margin for error, especially since we really only have about a four-month sample of him playing at this level. Could he be a Teoscar Hernandez-level producer moving forward? Oh, absolutely, and that would be enough to make him an easy top-10 third baseman and probably closer to the top half than the bottom half of that top 10. But you only need to look at other players with similar in-zone whiff rates to see how things could go wrong; Nolan Gorman earned a trip back to the minors, while Tyler O'Neill hasn't exactly been a model of consistency, either. | | I think my expectations for Vientos probably aren't that different than for O'Neill, actually. Both have potentially difference-making power, but do I want to bet on them being must-start options year in and year out? O'Neill certainly hasn't been, and I'm skeptical that Vientos is just someone you can rely on now. | | Biggest Bust from 2024 | | Austin Riley, Braves | | This one is tough because Riley was more or less himself from June 1 on, hitting .275/.339/.531 with a 38-homer pace. But he had a miserable first two months, compounded by an oblique injury in mid-April, and then his season came to an early end with a fractured right hand in mid-August. If he played the season out, I'm pretty confident Riley would have ended up with numbers more or less like we expected; instead, he finished with a .256 average and 19 homers and wasn't even a top-200 player in Fantasy. I'm pretty confident in a bounceback in 2025, and I'll be happy to take a discount on him in drafts if it's coming. | | | | Biggest rankings movers from 2024 to 2025 | | Up: Jordan Westburg, Orioles; Matt Chapman, Giants; Eugenio Suarez, Diamondbacks | | Westburg broke out from the crowd in Baltimore with enough thump in his bat to make up for the fact that he had pretty poor plate discipline. Playing in a park that suppresses right-handed power with the kind of chase and swing-and-miss issues he has makes me a bit wary of trusting Westburg, but his underlying data suggests he might have actually deserved even more of a breakout than he actually got -- his .355 xwOBA is a decent amount higher than his actual .340 mark. I'm more comfortable with him as my second baseman, but I don't mind the positional flexibility. | | Chapman had such a strange season. After attempting just 23 steals in his seven seasons prior to 2024, all of a sudden, he stole 15 this season. And lest you think it's because of the new rules, he had just two steals (on four attempts) in 2023. Changing teams surely played a part there, though Chapman did also see his sprint speed rebound to 84th percentile, his highest ranking since he was a rookie; a sign, perhaps, that his troublesome hip injuries are behind him. The other weird thing for Chapman is that, despite batting fourth or fifth in the order almost exclusively, he ended up with 98 runs and only 78 RBI, numbers you'd expect to be flipped for someone with his skill set and lineup slot. I'm not necessarily all the way out on Chapman, but I don't really buy him as much more than a fringe starter for 2025, either. | | Suarez is a tougher call, but I'm leaning toward buying into him as a low-end starting option for 2025. He severely underperformed his expected stats in 2023, something that seems to happen quite often in Seattle. He went to Arizona -- not exactly a hitter's paradise -- and suddenly started performing more or less like you would expect based on his underlying numbers. I don't think there's much to be gained from pointing out Suarez's outrageous hot stretch from July on because I don't think anyone should draft him expecting something like that. But 30 homers, a batting average that won't help you but shouldn't kill you, and a ton of runs and RBI in a very good Arizona lineup? Yeah, I don't see why we shouldn't expect that from him, at least. | | Down: Nolan Arenado, Cardinals; Josh Jung, Rangers; Ke'Bryan Hayes, Pirates | | Arenado seems to be in a free fall, dropping from 34 homers in 2021 to 30, 26, and then just 16 in 2024, with his doubles dropping in each of the past two seasons. Arenado's skill set has never left much margin for error since he left Colorado, with a contact- and pull-heavy approach that is light on raw power. He lived off 370-foot homers to left field, and if a few of those die at the warning track, it doesn't seem like he has much to fall back on. He'll be a 34-year-old shortly after Opening Day, and it just doesn't seem like there's much upside worth chasing here anymore. | | Hayes is a case where a half-season breakout at the end of 2023 just doesn't seem to have been real. He suddenly started elevating the ball to the pull side more to take advantage of his solid raw power and contact skills, but he just couldn't carry it over into 2025. He's shown the ability before, but he needs to prove himself after a disastrous season before we can view him as anything more than a deep-league CI option. | | Jung is definitely the one of this trio I'm most optimistic about. He's still young enough to bet on a bounceback from, especially since so much of his 2024 was impacted by recurring wrist injuries. In 2023, he showed a strong enough bat to overcome his contact issues, sporting a solid .337 xwOBA that should have played up in a very good Rangers lineup. Instead, the lineup disappointed all season long, and Jung just never seemed right. I'll probably be drafting him a lot at a reduced price this season, hoping for a bounceback as a CI. | | Offseason preview | | Who needs an upgrade most? | | This is one position where the contenders are all actually in pretty good shape. The Royals and Brewers could probably use a third base upgrade, and the Astros may need one, too. But other than that, the 2024 playoff teams mostly don't have glaring holes at third base. | | But there are certainly would-be contenders who could use an upgrade. The Reds got the second-worst production in the league from their third basemen, and the Cubs were bottom-five -- they are surely hoping Isaac Paredes bounces back after struggling post-trade, though there are real reasons to think that won't happen. And if the Nationals want to take a step toward competitiveness as their rebuild starts to come into focus, they are another obvious candidate to make a move after getting a .589 combined OPS from their third basemen. | | Top impending free agents | | Alex BregmanYoan Moncada*Eugenio Suarez* | | *Both have team options for 2025. Suarez seems likely to have his picked up, while Moncada will almost certainly be turned down. | | Bregman is the biggest name here, and while I'm a bit wary of buying into him if he leaves Houston and that short porch in left field, it may not be as big of an issue as you'd think. Since 2020, when Bregman went from being a perennial MVP candidate to just the decent hitter he's been since, he has about a 20-point gap in wOBA at home compared to away. That's not nothing, but it also isn't as big of a deal as you might think -- for the league as a whole, in 2024, hitters had about a seven-point wOBA edge at home. Bregman's is bigger, certainly, but it doesn't suggest he's just going to collapse if he gets away from Houston. I'd still prefer him to return there, but there might be enough of a discount if he leaves that he still ends up being a value for Fantasy. | | Moncada is a name to keep an eye on. His season was wrecked, yet again, by injuries, as he played just 12 games in 2024. He hasn't topped 105 games since 2021 and really hasn't been more than a fringe Fantasy option since 2019, so I'm not saying you should be excited about him. But he's likely to end up taking a one-year prove-it deal this offseason and will be playing for his future in the majors, so there will definitely be plenty of incentive for Moncada to stay on the field and stay productive. Is he likely to be anything more than a CI, even in the best-case scenario? Probably not, but he could be useful in deeper leagues and is likely to go undrafted more often than not. Just keep an eye on him, is what I'm saying. | | Trade candidates | | Vladimir GuerreroJake BurgerCoby Mayo Brett BatyJeimer Candelario | | Guerrero isn't actually 3B eligible, but we'll include him here because he played 12 of his final 102 games at third base and could gain eligibility relatively quickly in 2025 if the Blue Jays (or some other team) want to give him some early looks there. It only takes five, and he would be a boon to the position. | | The rest of the names on this list aren't nearly as exciting, though Mayo obviously has plenty of upside as a very recent top prospect who just never really got an everyday chance with the Orioles. It seems inevitable they'll have to consolidate some of their young talent just to have enough playing time for everyone, and if Mayo isn't in the immediate plans for 2025, he could be the most obvious call. He still likely has plenty of value on the market and could help the Orioles find a badly needed front-line starter. This is the outcome we should be hoping for from a Fantasy perspective. | | Otherwise, we'd be looking for a change of scenery for Brett Baty, which also feels inevitable at this point. Baty has flopped at the MLB level and has been clearly overtaken by Vientos in the team's hierarchy. It's possible they opt to give Baty a chance at first base if Pete Alonso leaves via free agency, but that would be such a significant step back for a contender that it feels untenable. Baty continues to produce in the minors, but he just hasn't figured out how to consistently elevate the ball against major-league pitching. At this point, I'd bet against Baty becoming an impact player for Fantasy, but I'd at least like to see him get one more extended look to see if he can figure things out. | | Top 2025 rookies to know | | Matt Shaw , Cubs -- I'm not sure any of these guys are particularly likely to end up on an Opening Day roster, but Shaw probably has the best chance. He reached Triple-A and kept hitting, posting a .298/.395/.534 line in 35 games there after a solid season at Double-A. I don't think the Cubs are going to toss Isaac Paredes aside for a rookie immediately, but I don't think it's out of the question they could move one of Shaw or Paredes to first base if Shaw forces the issue in the spring. Shaw has plenty of pop and has played second and shortstop, too, so there could be a spot for him somewhere if he proves ready. | | Orelvis Martinez, Blue Jays -- Martinez mashed his way to the majors for exactly one game before receiving an 80-game suspension after testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance. He was never a sure-fire prospect even before the suspension, and it's fair to wonder whether the suspension has hurt him in the eyes of the organization. If they are willing to give him another chance, Martinez did just hit 17 homers over 74 games in Triple-A as a 22-year-old and could have a Mark Vientos-like impact in a best-case scenario. | | Charlie Condon, Rockies -- Condon struggled enough in his first taste of pro ball that it probably makes it pretty unlikely we'll see him until the second half of next season. The No. 3 pick hit just one homer in 25 games at High-A Spokane, with a 31% strikeout rate. It's not the end of the world that a college pick struggled in his first time playing against professionals, it just makes it a lot less likely we'll see him fast-tracked to the majors. When he does get here, he'll be a big-time power prospect in the best home park for hitters in the majors, so Condon is still worth being excited about in the long run. Just maybe not immediately. | | Brayden Taylor, Rays -- The problem for Taylor is the organization he plays in. We typically expect the Rays to get the most out of their young players, but we also know this is a team that wants guys to prove it at Triple-A before they call them up for good. And Taylor struggled enough in his first taste of Double-A in 2024 that he'll probably start the season there. He still had 20 homers and 29 steals in 114 games last season overall, so we're certainly not out on him. It's just that we're probably looking at more of a late-2025 debut at this point. And because it's the Rays, there's no guarantee he even gets that opportunity. | | | | | | | | Big Ten on CBS | | NWSL Summer Cup Final | If it looks like it, walks like it is and quacks like it is, it must be #20 Illinois vs. #1 Oregon! Watch live at 3:30 ET this Saturday on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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