What’s going on here? The UK, Norway, and Switzerland all delivered better-than-expected economic performances, proving they don’t need sequins and backup dancers to dazzle a crowd. What does this mean? The British economy picked up by 0.7% last quarter, its fastest pace of growth in a year. That was mainly thanks to the services and construction sectors – along with a flurry of exports, as businesses rushed to ship stock stateside before tariffs took hold. Norway and Switzerland also handed in tidy numbers. Norway’s were a result of a successful fishing season, hardy retail sales, and a ton of hydroelectric power. (The country is Europe’s biggest producer of the renewable energy source.) And Switzerland revealed its biggest economic uptick in two years, with most of the country’s sectors pulling their weight. Together, that suggests Europe’s faring better than feared. But of course, ever-changing tariffs could easily hand it another stress test. Why should I care? For markets: Europe’s the tortoise to America’s hare. Europe is heavy on dependable, steady industries (think financials, manufacturing, and transport), as opposed to the hot-to-touch tech firms that have fueled stateside rallies. So with the US throwing out mixed signals, Europe could offer investors a rare sense of calm. These stronger-than-expected economic releases could keep central banks from rushing interest rate cuts, which could support the region’s currencies. It helps, too, that Europe’s stocks are still trading for less than their US counterparts. The bigger picture: Thanks for the present, I hate it. Even with the recently agreed tariff reductions, China still has to cough up serious cash to send stock to the US. So Chinese firms are shipping more stuff to regions like Europe – and most of that stash will be cheaper than wares made locally. The good news: that could help keep European inflation at a manageable rate. The bad: it’ll make it harder for local producers to hang on to customers. |