| | | | Wednesday, March 20, 2024 | | Before we get to the meat of today's FBT Newsletter, some quick thoughts on today's Seoul Series opener, where the Dodgers beat the Padres, 5-2. A game, mind you, that I actually managed to wake up in time for -- please clap: | | It was a pretty uneventful game overall, and neither Tyler Glasnow nor Yu Darvish was at his sharpest. They walked seven between them, but otherwise looked about as expected -- Glasnow had 13 whiffs on 77 pitches and his velocity was right where we expected it to be, while Darvish threw the whole kitchen sink and several appliances to try (and mostly succeeded) in slowing down the Dodgers offense. | | Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman really are batting consecutively for the Dodgers at the top of lineup. I mean, we knew that going in, but it's still kind of jarring to actually see those three guys lined up in a row, isn't it? Ohtani went 2 for 5 with a steal, and while we can't draw any conclusions from one game, he was safe by roughly 40 feet, per my estimate. Maybe Freddie Freeman wasn't joking about wanting him to steal 100 bases. | | The Padres led off with Xander Bogaerts, followed by Fernando Tatis, Jake Cronenworth , and Manny Machado ... and the lineup gets awfully shallow awfully quickly after that. Jackson Merrill hit ninth in his MLB debut, which isn't much of a surprise, but it also wouldn't be a surprise if he moved up in the order relatively quickly if he proves himself. Also, here's a pretty bonkers note from Baseball Prospectus about Merrill's debut: "[He becomes] just the third player under the age of 21 to start in center field on opening day, joining Ken Griffey Jr. and Andruw Jones." | | Evan Phillips got a quiet save for the Dodgers, as expected. On the Diamondbacks side, prospective closer Robert Suarez wasn't used in the loss, but Yuki Matsui, who we viewed as his primary competition for the ninth inning, worked in the sixth inning, recording two outs. It's only one game, but Suarez's role looks pretty safe. | | Alright, now let's get to the rest of today's newsletter! | | | | Before last night's Fantasy Baseball Today podcast listener's league -- which you can watch here! -- I hadn't drafted Fernando Tatis yet in a league I was going to play out. That might come as a surprise if you look at the CBS Fantasy Baseball rankings page: | | | | Heck, I was surprised to see it! We do a ton of drafts in the lead up to the season, but as of Tuesday afternoon, only 11 of them were going to be played out, and I somehow managed to not draft Tatis yet. Me! The guy who has said from the very beginning, "If I'm picking anywhere after fifth and Tatis is available, I'm taking him." | | Well, the thing is … I hadn't had that opportunity to take him before last night, when I picked fifth and promptly snatched him up. Before that, here's where I had picked in my other 11 drafts: 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 9th, 10th, 10th, 11th, 14th, 14th, 15th, 15th. | | (I had really bad luck in my 15-team leagues, huh?) | | I spread the love around with my first-round picks, drafting 11 different players in 11 different leagues, a nice distribution of high-end risk there. And Tatis wasn't the only first-rounder I didn't end up drafting: I also have, with one draft remaining, no shares of Bobby Witt, Corbin Carroll, or Trea Turner, and I only ended up with Shohei Ohtani in one Salary Cap league. I don't feel great about not having Witt or Carroll on my teams, and if I get the second or fourth pick in my lone remaining draft, I'll be sure to snag at least one of them, though the luck of the draw has not been on my side so far. | | But enough about the players I didn't draft, let's talk about the guys I drafted the most. In today's newsletter, that's what we'll be doing, going through the eight players I drafted in at least four of my 11 leagues, and the 19 others I drafted at least three times. This doesn't count mock drafts, where I do more experimenting to see what various team builds look like; I'm talking specifically about the leagues I'll be playing out in 2024. The ones that count. | | Before we get to that, though, let's quickly divert our attention to Scott White's top 12 prospects who won't make their team's Opening Day roster but who are still worth stashing to start the season. And I'm happy to say I do have at least a couple of these guys rostered. | | | | Top prospects to stash | | | | Jackson Chourio and Jackson Merrill are already confirmed for the Brewers and Padres Opening Day rosters, and it seems all but certain at this point that Jackson Holliday and Wyatt Langford will be joining them on the Orioles and Rangers rosters. You're not drafting them to stash; you're drafting them to play. | | But they're the lucky few, along with the likes of Colt Keith and Michael Busch who have been penciled into their team's Opening Day lineups for weeks now. Scott White ranked the top-12 prospects to know about for some potential early-season callups, or if you have room on your roster, to stash outright before they even get the call. Here's the top five, and you can read about the rest here: | | 1) Junior Caminero, 3B, Rays | 2023 minors: .324 BA (460 AB), 31 HR, .976 OPS, 42 BB, 100 K
2023 majors: .235 BA (34 AB), 1 HR, 1 2B, 2 BB, 8 K | | Calling up Caminero last September seemed like a precursor to putting him on the opening day roster. That's been standard operating precedure for top prospects since the latest CBA introduced new incentives to curb service time manipulation. But it became clear from the Rays' offseason maneuvering that they simply wouldn't have room for Caminero at the start of 2024. | | 2) Ricky Tiedemann, SP, Blue Jays | | 2023 minors: 0-5, 3.68 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 44 IP, 23 BB, 82 K | | Injuries to Alek Manoah and Yariel Rodriguez have whittled away the Blue Jays ' pitching depth this spring, and particularly in Manoah's case, it's hard to say if they'll be able to count on him at any point. It's left intended starter Bowden Francis as the last viable impediment for the team's top pitching prospect, Tiedemann. | | 3) Kyle Manzardo, 1B, Guardians | | 2023 minors: .237 BA (351 AB), 17 HR, .802 OPS, 55 BB, 80 K | | At the start of spring training, all signs pointed to Manzardo and Josh Naylor alternating between first base and DH to begin the season, but the Guardians apparently had other plans. That's hardly the fault of Manzardo, who hit .381 (8 for 21) with two doubles before the Guardians sent them down. | | 4) Paul Skenes, SP, Pirates | | 2023 minors: 6 2/3 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 10 K | | Every Skenes appearance this spring was appointment viewing, as far as Twitter was concerned, his triple-digit velocity readings being exactly as advertised. You could argue that unless the Pirates are surprise contenders, there isn't much incentive for them to call up Skenes prior to late August, thereby preserving his rookie eligiblity for a potential opening day assignment (and possible draft pick rewards) next year. | | 5) Jasson Dominguez, OF, Yankees | 2023 minors: .265 BA (456 AB), 15 HR, 40 SB, .802 OPS, 83 BB, 133 K
2023 majors: .258 BA (31 AB), 4 HR, 1 2B, 1 SB, 2 BB, 8 K | | Dominguez's situation is a little different from these others' because his timetable is outside of anyone's control. He probably won't be up until some point in July because of Tommy John surgery, but he'll almost certainly be up at some point in July, having already proved he belongs with a scintillating first week on the job last September. It's a longer wait than ideal -- and with the possibility of setbacks along the way -- but you should have the luxury of stashing him on the IL in the meantime. | | | | 'My Guys' for 2024 | | | | With one draft left, I've drafted 168 different players at least once across 11 leagues, including 59 players at least twice and 27 at least three times. Which means I've done a pretty good job of diversifying my teams so far. There are, obviously, a handful of players I'm going to have a lot of exposure to, and it's not necessarily all names I'd expect. Here are all the players I've drafted on at least three teams so far this season: | | Drafted five times | | Nick Castellanos, OF, PHI -- My ADP: 105.4; Total ADP: 100.99 | | It feels like Castellanos just tends to fall farther than he should in most drafts. That's life as an older, non-superstar player, but I think Castellanos is a pretty safe bet at this point. He's had at least 27 homers and 170 combined runs and RBI in three of his past five seasons, and one of the two exceptions was the shortened 2020, when he was on pace for 38 homers and 192 R-plus-RBI. He even took advantage of the rule changes for 11 steals last season. He's a perfect pick if you're looking for an OF around this range. | | Jarren Duran, OF, BOS -- My ADP: 153.8; Total ADP: 145.93 | | I'm not surprised I have Duran on so many of my rosters, but it is genuinely surprising that I'm not actually ahead of ADP in those picks. It feels like I've been ahead of ADP on Duran for most of the draft process, but his ADP caught up to my ranking once he was cleared to start playing games after offseason toe surgery. He's going to hit leadoff for the Red Sox if he can stay healthy, and Duran has had a pretty terrific spring, which always helps enthusiasm build (rightly or wrongly). | | Tyler Soderstrom, UT, OAK -- My ADP: 345.4; Total ADP: 651.5 | | Well, you always need someone to drop, right? So, this was a reserve-round pick almost exclusively, in two-catcher leagues, and it was a bet on a recent top-75 prospect with the potential to emerge as a difference-making option at catcher. However, Soderstrom had an abysmal spring and was sent back to minor-league camp, so he won't even be on the A's roster on Opening Day. He was a late-round roll of the dice, and an easy cut – I didn't go into any leagues with the expectation that he would be my starting catcher, so that's the good news. | | Drafted four times | | Bo Bichette, SS, TOR -- My ADP: 50.8; Total ADP: 38.43 | | I think the key thing for Bichette this season is whether he starts running again – he stole 13 bases on 21 attempts in 2022 and 25 on 26 attempts in 2021, but was just five for eight in 2023 as his spring speed fell to the 43rd percentile, per BaseballSavant.com – he had always had at least above-average speed before that. Bichette did deal with a knee injury in the summer, but he also wasn't running before that injury (three steals in his first 106 games), so I get being skeptical about his chances of turning things around. I'm optimistic, but it's a risk. | | Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B, PIT -- My ADP: 161.5; Total ADP: 157.5 | | Hayes came back from a back injury last August was finally the hitter we've wanted to see since his days as a top prospect. From Aug. 1 on, Hayes hit the ball in the air 41.5% of the time and hit it to the pull side 35.4% of the time, both of which would have been career-best marks, and he hit .299/.335/.539 with a 33-homer pace. He's always had the raw power to hit for that kind of power, and if he can sustain those gains, Hayes is going to crush his ADP. If spring is anything to go by, those gains stuck – he has three homers in 13 games with just one strikeout in 39 plate appearances. | | Yusei Kikuchi, P, TOR -- My ADP: 241.5; Total ADP: 230.03 | | We've seen a lot of different versions of Kikuchi throughout his career, and most of them have been pretty underwhelming despite always having interesting stuff. However, he seemed to find the right tweaks as 2023 went on and ended up posting a 3.56 ERA (3.20 FIP) over his final 21 starts, with 129 strikeouts in 111.1 innings of work. He added a curveball to his repertoire last spring to go along with his fastball and slider, and he's spent this spring refining his changeup with the hopes that it can help him build on last year's success. If all Kikuchi does is repeat last season, he's a good value at this price. | | Max Kepler, OF, MIN -- My ADP: 250.3; Total ADP: 270.77 | | I'm mostly buying the gains Kepler made last season, at least as long as he remains this cheap. For most of his career, Kepler has been the kind of hitter who had to sacrifice batting average to hit for power, because he hasn't typically had the kind of quality of contact to hit for both at the same time. That changed last season, as Kepler sported a career-best average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate, allowing him to put up his best power since 2019 along with a career-high batting average. I don't know if he'll be able to sustain those gains, but when all it costs me is a 21st-round pick in a 12-team league, I'll make him my fifth outfielder every time. | | Casey Mize, P, DET -- My ADP: 365.3; Total ADP: 549.91 | | I was never much of a believer in Mize earlier in his career, because I just didn't see where he was supposed to get strikeouts from – even in the minors, he routinely struck out fewer than a batter per inning. I still have those questions about Mize, whose slider, curveball, and splitter have all been fairly pedestrian swing-and-miss pitches in the majors. However, he's also throwing harder than ever coming back from Tommy John surgery this spring, and it's a cheap flier on a former top prospect. If he doesn't make the Tigers rotation, well hey, it's another player I get to drop. | | Drafted three times | | Jose Ramirez, 3B, CLE -- My ADP: 16.3; Total ADP: 16.02Pablo Lopez, P, MIN -- My ADP: 34.0; Total ADP: 39.18 Christian Yelich, OF, MLW -- My ADP: 61.0; Total ADP: 72.27Nolan Jones, OF, COL -- My ADP: 71.0; Total ADP: 53.69 Justin Verlander, P, HOU -- My ADP: 147.7; Total ADP: 172.76Kenley Jansen, P, BOS -- My ADP: 179.3; Total ADP: 161.04 Kodai Senga, P, NYM -- My ADP: 179.7; Total ADP: 228.38Gavin Williams, P, CLE -- My ADP: 179.7; Total ADP: 193.37 Mitch Garver, C, SEA -- My ADP: 184.3; Total ADP: 170.79Chris Paddack, P, MIN -- My ADP: 211.7; Total ADP: 300.61 Reid Detmers, P, LAA -- My ADP: 217.7; Total ADP: 238.95Henry Davis, OF, PIT -- My ADP: 229.3; Total ADP: 210.37 Nestor Cortes, P, NYY -- My ADP: 239.0; Total ADP: 228.19Carlos Correa, SS, MIN -- My ADP: 245.3; Total ADP: 238.06 Luis Severino, P, NYM -- My ADP: 252.7; Total ADP: 254.89Joe Boyle, P, OAK -- My ADP: 285.3; Total ADP: 462.58 Gavin Stone, P, LAD -- My ADP: 304.7; Total ADP: 399.2Michael Busch, 3B, CHC -- My ADP: 321.3; Total ADP: 411.93Travis d'Arnaud, C, ATL -- My ADP: 375.0; Total ADP: 551.47 | | I won't write about every player here, so I'll just highlight a few: | | Jones and Yelich are an interesting combination there. Both bring five-category potential to the table, but Yelich is a much safer pick, while Jones is the more high variance option of the two. I tend to gravitate toward Yelich when I don't grab an early-round outfielder and I need some projectable speed, mostly; I draft Jones mostly when he slips to a price where I feel like I can afford the risk inherent in his profile. Jones might play his way into a top-25 pick by this time next season, and Trevor Story 's Coors Field-fueled production could be a good barometer of what to expect – there's 30-25 potential here, with a better batting average than you'd expect thanks to a consistently high BABIP. | | You see a bunch of my favorite late-round pitcher dart throws, like Paddack, Detmers, Cortes, Severino, and Stone, all of whom are helping fill out the back half of a bunch of my rotations. | | I'm surprised Davis' price hasn't gone up even more as spring has gone on, as he's right around the top 200 in my rankings. The one thing that makes him kind of tough to draft is that he isn't actually catcher eligible, so you have to take up an outfield spot on him for at least the first week of the season. But he seems likely to be the Pirates Opening Day catcher at this point, and he easily has top-five catcher potential. | | I'm buying the injury discount on Verlander (shoulder), Jansen (lat/back), Senga (shoulder), and Williams (elbow), though I'm definitely more bearish on Verlander and Jansen, who could still be ready shortly after Opening Day. I will say, I was a bit disappointed to be reminded that I drafted multiple squads with both Senga and Williams, though in my defense, only one of those came after Williams' injury. Senga is definitely the one of the four I'm most worried won't make any kind of impact this season. | | Actually, let's go back to catcher for a second because the three in this group might be my ideal trio to draft in any two-catcher league. I'm not at all surprised that Garver is my most-drafted catcher – he's going to be the Mariners primary DH and has averaged 37 home runs per-162 games over the past five seasons, and I'd honestly be a bit disappointed if he didn't give us at least 25 this season. Davis will slot into the outfield for a week or two, with d'Arnaud filling in as a last-round pick who shouldn't hurt me too much; then I can fairly easily drop him once Davis is eligible for the C spot. If I can pull that off without spending a top-150 pick on the position, I'm thrilled. | | | | | | | | Concacaf Nations League | | 24/7 Sports News | The Semis begin on Thursday, March 21st for the Men's Concacaf Nations League with USMNT taking on Jamaica at 7 PM ET and Panama vs Mexico at 10:15 PM ET. Exclusively on Paramount+.
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