| | | | Friday, July 26, 2024 | | The trade deadline looms on Monday of next week, and we're finally starting to see some action. The first true blockbuster of the season came down Thursday night, as the Mariners tried to patch the gigantic, Julio Rodriguez-sized hole in their outfield with Randy Arozarena. | | It's a big deal for the Mariners, who gave up a couple of intriguing minor-leaguers in outfielder Aidan Smith and pitcher Brody Hopkins, but it's not one I'm terribly excited about for Fantasy, just because Seattle is such a tough place to hit. Over the past three seasons, it's been the toughest park in baseball for hitters, per BaseballSavant.com's park factors, and it's not just because of the large outfield dimensions – it's also been the best park for strikeouts, an especially worrisome sign for the whiff-heavy Arozarena. | | Of course, Tampa has never been a great place to hit either, and Arozarena has mostly been fine there. This hasn't been his best season, though he's been pulling out of it lately, posting an .892 OPS in June and then a .914 OPS in the month of July. And, while the overall line has been disappointing, Arozarena's underlying numbers have been better all along, in a way that suggests that the recent improvements are something we should be buying into. | | It's probably a downgrade for Arozarena's Fantasy value, especially since the Mariners lineup looks especially weak with Rodriguez out for at least a few weeks with that high-ankle sprain. But I'm not too worried about Arozarena – he should be a must-start Fantasy option moving forward, despite the park and lineup downgrade. | | The other big trade Thursday saw the Diamondbacks go out and grab Marlins lefty reliever A.J. Puk, who flamed out as a member of Miami's rotation early in the season but who has been excellent since moving back to the bullpen. He'll likely help set Paul Sewald up, though with Sewald struggling of late, it's possible Puk could be insurance in case last year's deadline acquisition relief ace falters. Puk's value doesn't change here, but he might have a path to closing for a playoff contender, which is better than what he was facing in Miami, so we'll call it an upgrade in value, albeit one that shouldn't send you running for the waiver wire just yet. | | Hopefully, those two deals have greased the skids and we're about to see a flurry of activity leading up to Monday's deadline – and I wrote about five deals we'd love to see go down from a Fantasy perspective here. In the rest of today's newsletter, we've got everything else you need to know about from Thursday's MLB action, plus some players to target in trades yourself if you need help in your Roto leagues – I've got five players on the hitting and pitching sides you should be looking to acquire if you need help in any of the 10 Roto categories. Let's get to it: | | | | News and notes | | Christian Yelich has elected to rest and rehab his back injury, delaying a potential surgery until the offseason. Ken Rosenthal added that offseason surgery is viewed as a strong possibility, and it's not guaranteed Yelich will even make it there without having to go under the knife. It's a tough situation for a guy who has been one of the best players in baseball in a bounceback season, and at this point, I'm kind of viewing anything I get from Yelich the rest of the way as a bonus. | | Mason Miller was placed on the IL with a fractured pinky on his left hand. The initial thought was that Lucas Erceg would take over as the closer since he's been the primary eighth-inning reliever for the A's, but when they had a save situation Thursday, Erceg pitched the eighth, while Tyler Ferguson got the ninth with a one-run lead, striking out two for his first save. One thing I'll note is that Erceg did face the heart of the order, so I don't want to write him off just yet. | | This Garrett Crochet trade situation is getting interesting. According to an article from The Athletic, Crochet desires a contract extension before he would agree to pitch in the playoffs this season. He also wants to remain a starter and isn't interested in transitioning back into a reliever role. It all makes sense from Crochet's perspective, but it does seemingly complicate his trade value. The White Sox aren't expected to shut Crochet down or move him to the bullpen if he isn't moved, though we'd likely see them limit him within certain starts, as they already have. I'm really not sure how to value him at this point, especially since it's an open question how Crochet will respond to his workload as he continues to rack up unprecedented amounts of innings. | | | | One note from the Puk trade: The Marlins acquired Deyvison De Los Santos in the deal, and he's worth talking about a bit. He's having a monster season in the minors, hitting .325 with 28 HR, and a 1.011 OPS between Double-A and Triple-A as a 21-year-old. He hits the ball extremely hard and has improved as a contact hitter this season, though he also has a massive chase rate that could certainly be exploited in the majors. He'll be worth a look whenever the Marlins opt to call him up, though he's not the kind of prospect you need to be stashing beforehand. | | Triston Casas has been taking full batting practice and could be ready for a rehab assignment by the end of this week. | | Bryan Reynolds was placed on the bereavement list and will miss a few days of action. | | Giancarlo Stanton is not expected to be activated this weekend. He's still rehabbing his hamstring injury. | | Starling Marte hopes to begin a running progression this week. He's on the IL with a bone bruise in his right knee. | | Jorge Mateo was officially placed on the IL with a left elbow subluxation. Connor Norby was recalled. The Orioles optioned Chayce McDermott back to Triple-A. | | The Giants are planning to move Jordan Hicks to the bullpen and could do so as soon as this weekend. Alex Cobb would likely take his place in the rotation when he is ready to return from the IL. | | Chris Taylor was placed on the IL with a left groin strain. James Outman was recalled for the Dodgers. | | | Thursday's standouts
| | Dylan Cease , Padres @WAS: 9 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 9 K – Yeah, that's a no-hitter, the second in Padres history! Cease struggled a bit from June to early July, but he's gone three straight starts without allowing a run, culminating with this gem. He leaned on that slider for 53% of his pitches and generated 11 whiffs and a ton of weak contact with it, while the fastball was up to 98.3 mph, 1.4 mph up from his average. He was pumped, and you should be pumped if you have Cease on your team. Because, even when he was struggling, the command remained much better than we've ever seen it; that's why I never lost faith in him. He's a top-10 SP in my rankings. | | Clayton Kershaw , Dodgers vs. SF: 4 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – I usually write these standouts in order of Fantasy rankings, but I'm bumping Kershaw up because it's important to talk about him here. Making his first start back from shoulder surgery, the 36-year-old looked more or less like himself, averaging 90.6 mph with his fastball (0.1 mph down from last season) and generating eight whiffs with his slider. I was skeptical that Kershaw could be a difference-maker again this season, but the fact that he looked this solid in his first outing has given me some hope. I don't expect Kershaw to be an ace, but I do think he's a useful Fantasy option moving forward, and I've moved him into the top 200 of my overall rankings after this move. | | Logan Webb , Giants @LAD: 5 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K – Webb has just looked a little bit off for much of the season, and it's starting to catch up to him lately, as his ERA has ballooned to 6.65 in the month of July. His strikeout rate is down to 20.7%, his second-lowest mark as a pro, while his walk rate has regressed from last season's career-best mark, leading to an unsightly 4.29 xERA. The changeup just hasn't been as effective for him, either as a swing-and-miss pitch or in the quality of contact it allows, and it's dragging the whole profile down. I think it's fair to assume he'll pull out of this slide and remain a must-start pitcher moving forward, but I'd be lying if I said I was certain of it. | | Taj Bradley, Rays @TOR: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – I don't really have much to say about Bradley anymore. He's awesome, and the move to prioritize his splitter as his primary non-fastball pitch has really paid off. He's a top-36 pitcher for me now, and that might be underrating him; Frank Stampfl has moved him into his top-30 pitchers in his latest rankings update. | | Gavin Williams, Guardians vs. DET: 6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 9 K – Welcome back, Mr. Williams. Williams had shelved his slider in his first few starts back from his elbow injury, but he brought it back for this one, throwing it 19% of the time and generating four of his 17 whiffs with it. I will note that his velocity with the pitch was up 3.0 mph from last season, so there might be some classification issues here with BaseballSavant's tracking; he had been throwing the cutter more than the slider prior to this one, so maybe some of those sliders are actually cutters? Either way, the whole arsenal played up in this one, and while the matchup against the Tigers surely helped, this is the first time in four starts that he has looked like the guy we were so excited about last year. He's 71% rostered, and that should probably tick up after this one. | | Max Scherzer, Rangers vs. CHW: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K – That's a nice bounceback for Scherzer, who really needed it. He leaned heavily on his slider, throwing it 32% of the time, and why not: It generated 10 whiffs and a 52% called-plus-swinging-strike rate, an elite mark. His fastball velocity remains down, but he does have a 3.57 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in seven starts now. I don't think Scherzer is an ace anymore, but he should still be a pretty useful pitcher for Fantasy, especially now that he has shown this kind of upside again. | | Roto category targets | | At the beginning of the season, you're just trying to build the best generalist Fantasy roster that you can. One that can compete in all 10 Rotisserie categories, ideally. But you know what they say about the best-laid plans of Fantasy players, so by this point in the season, surely some strengths and weaknesses have emerged. I've written about players on both the pitching and hitting side who can help you make up ground in every category, and here are some to consider, either via trade or on the waiver wire: | | Pitching category helpers | | Wins | | Jack Flaherty, SP, Tigers – We're operating under the assumption that the Tigers are going to trade Flaherty to a contender between now and the deadline, with the Orioles recently emerging as an unexpected suitor. Flaherty was a disaster with Baltimore after a trade there last season, but he's taken a big step forward this season, and going to Baltimore to be backed up by an elite offense in a great home park would be a best-case scenario for his chances to rack up wins down the stretch. | | ERA | | Matt Strahm, RP, Phillies – Non-closing relievers are some of my favorite category helpers to target, and Strahm is one of the best in the league. He combines elite strikeout rates and control with the ability to pitch multiple innings when needed, which is how he got to 108 strikeouts last season. He's been even better in a more traditional one-inning role this season and should be an elite source of ratios the rest of the way. | | Strikeouts | | Robbie Ray, SP, Giants – With one start, Ray leaped to the top of the must-add pitcher list, because the swing-and-miss stuff looked fully intact in his return from Tommy John surgery Wednesday . His fastball velocity was actually way up, and though he struggled with command early on, he eventually found his feel for the breaking balls and racked up big whiff numbers with all three of his pitches. Ray won the Cy Young in 2021 and was still a must-start pitcher in 2022 despite totally losing the feel for his curveball. That pitch looked like it was back in his debut, and that could mean Ray is once again a force to be reckoned with. | | Saves | | Devin Williams, RP, Brewers – Williams is working his way back from preseason back surgery, and it sure looks like he's been no worse for the wear, with six strikeouts over three shutout innings on his rehab assignment. He could be back from the IL next week, and while Trevor Megill has been excellent in his stead, I don't think it's going to take Williams long to regain his closer job. We're talking about one of the best relievers in baseball over the past half-decade, a guy with a 1.75 ERA since 2020. As long as he's right after the injury (his velocity was actually up in his Triple-A debut ), I don't see much reason Williams shouldn't be an elite closer the rest of the way. | | WHIP | | Bryce Miller, SP, Mariners – The lack of a dependable, non-fastball to lean on has seemingly capped Miller's ceiling as a Fantasy option; he'll give you a decent but unspectacular ERA and below-average strikeouts, but doesn't seem to have a ton of upside in either regard. But he is a standout in WHIP, ranking ninth among 50 pitchers with at least 240 innings over the past two seasons; he is 26th in ERA and 32nd in strikeout rate, by comparison. Miller is, for the most part, just a fine option to have around, but if you specifically need help with WHIP, he should be a priority target in trade talks. | | Hitting category helpers | | Batting average | | Gabriel Moreno, C, Diamondbacks – It's been a tough season for Moreno, who was considered one of the breakout picks of the season. That hasn't come to fruition, but he still has a skill set that should lend itself to good batting averages, including high contact rates, excellent plate discipline, and an all-fields approach. He has hit .315 in July and should remain a plus relative to the rest of the position moving forward. | | Runs | | Xander Bogaerts, SS, Padres – Bogaerts has primarily hit fifth since his return from the IL, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Padres started to move him up in the lineup if he stays hot – he has multiple hits in five of six games since coming back. Bogaerts is more of an all-around helper, but his consistently excellent OBPs should make him a very good source of runs especially. | | Home runs | | Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Yankees – The Yankees badly need Stanton back in their lineup, and the hope is that should happen sometime in the next week or so. He has his flaws as a hitter, to be certain – he strikes out over 30% of the time and has completely collapsed athletically, to the point where even his meager .254 xBA might be expecting too much. But he still hits the ball as hard as anyone in baseball and should remain a 35-plus homer-pace guy when healthy. | | RBI | | Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B, Royals – The thing that makes targeting RBI in particular difficult is, RBI are primarily a function of two things: Batting order placement and overall offensive production. If you're a great hitter but hit leadoff, you aren't going to drive in a ton of runs; if you aren't a great hitter, you probably aren't going to drive in a ton of runs. But there are players like Josh Naylor and peak Jose Abreu who consistently overperform in RBI relative to their production, and Pasquantino's contact-heavy approach that still generates power could make him another example of that. Despite a pretty middling .735 OPS, he is 17th in RBI for the season with 64. Hitting behind Bobby Witt certainly helps, but guess what: Neither Pasquantino nor Witt is going anywhere. | | Stolen bases | | Xavier Edwards, SS, Marlins – Edwards has only played 20 games for the Marlins this season, but he's been pretty awesome, hitting .333/.420/.391 with four steals. He probably isn't a batting title contender, but Edwards has consistently hit for average at the minor-league level and has been a 30-plus steal guy in the high-minors, too. The Marlins have every reason to let him play every day moving forward, and he should chip in double-digit steals the rest of the way. | | | | | | | | 24/7 Sports News | | Golazo Network | Stay up to date on all the sports you love with CBS Sports HQ. We bring you the top stories, news, picks, highlights and more anywhere, anytime, all the time.
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