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Today's top stories
Good morning from Berlin.
 
Put to the test. The chancellorship of Friedrich Merz is facing its first crucial test even before it has officially started, writes Euractiv’s Nick Alipour. At 10 am today, the lawmakers of the outgoing Bundestag will come together for what is likely going to be their last session.    
 
Their task is to greenlight a historic debt-funded investment package, that could run up to €1 trillion and would give Germany’s election winner the fiscal headroom he needs to tackle the country’s deep-seated sclerosis in all areas, from defence to the economy.   
 
It is not yet a done deal, however: Merz and his allies are still facing unknowns, that could sink the legislation and doom his likely chancellorship from the start, even if the probability appears small.
 
Meanwhile, rollbacks in climate protection are “unconstitutional” and therefore impossible to implement, a group within Merz’s CDU party warned yesterday, citing a report by top constitutional law experts, writes Jasper Steinlein.

 
Bubbling in Brussels
Click on the picture to read the story |   [Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu via Getty Images]
Devil’s in the details. EU countries are hashing out the details of a new multi-billion Ukraine military aid plan, but key sticking points on participation and calculating contributions remain, writes Euractiv’s Alexandra Brzozowski. 

EU foreign ministers discussed yesterday the latest draft of the plan, circulated among EU member states and reported by Euractiv last week, which has pitched mobilising between €20 and €40 billion worth of military aid to Ukraine this year.  
 
According to EU diplomats, most countries are in favour of moving towards a quick agreement and attaching a rather ambitious figure to the proposal.  But a number of technical details remain unclear – including the total value of the package. EU diplomats have described the discussions as “complicated” and said they do not expect an agreement this week.

Meanwhile, later this week, during a European Council, EU leaders – except for Hungary’s Viktor Orbán – are expected to repeat their promise to “step up” financial pressure on Russia if it refuses to make peace with Ukraine, writes Thomas Moller-Nielsen.
 
Mostly performative. Major online platforms’ risk assessments under the EU’s Digital Services Act (DSA) are “mostly performative,” a civil society-led report has found, writes Anupriya Datta. 
 
€5.8 billion for Syria. The European Union and its partners have pledged €5.8 billion for Syria and its neighbours, said the EU's foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas yesterday. “The EU and its partners just pledged €5.8 billion for Syria and its neighbours. This will support Syria at a crucial time of transition and address the dire needs on the ground,” she wrote on X.
 
How much lower? A comprehensive civil society ‘shadow report’ to Commission’s annual Rule of Law report has found a “democratic race to the bottom” observed for years. 
 
The NGO Eurocare has accused the Commission of “preferring” to speak to the alcohol industry instead of public health advocacy groups on alcohol policy, justifying its decision to quit a “useless” Commission-driven EU Alcohol and Health Forum, write Sarantis Michalopoulos and Thomas Mangin.
 
Frontex review. In a letter to EU leaders, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen outlined plans for EU migration policy, confirming a 2026 review of Frontex’s mandate to boost its role in returns, writes Nicoletta Ionta.
 
Egg hunting. As Americans keep wringing their hands over skyrocketing egg prices, the United States has been reaching out to European producers to chip in – but Europeans have little help to provide, writes Magnus Lund Nielsen.


 
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Western Europe
Click on the picture to read the story |    [EPA-EFE/MOSES NYONZIMA]]

BRUSSELS

Rwanda announced that the country will cut diplomatic ties with Belgium on the same day as a new list of EU sanctions targeting Rwandan officials was published. Read more.

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PARIS

France's nuclear energy buildup could be backed by state loan. Over half the costs of construction of France’s six new nuclear power reactors could be covered by a state loan, the French presidency indicated in a statement today, following a Nuclear Policy Council meeting. Read more.

Southern Europe

ROME

Italy is intentionally undermining democracy, report says. With its “heavy intolerance to media criticism” and judicial reforms that have “profoundly undermined” the rule of law, Italy stands as a clear example of Europe’s deepening “democratic recession,” according to a report by advocacy group Civil Liberties Union for Europe (Liberties). Read more.

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LISBON

Portugal: 'Wrong time' to discuss troops in Ukraine, foreign minister says. Questioned by journalists about Portugal's willingness to take part in a possible peacekeeping mission in Ukraine due to a peace agreement with Moscow, Portugal's foreign minister Paulo Rangel considered that this scenario “frankly, is totally the wrong time.”

At a ministerial meeting in Brussels, Rangel added that he “understands the curiosity, but it's impossible to give a clear answer at the moment.. What Portugal has always said - and what I reaffirm here - is that it will always be available, within the framework of the EU or others [...], to contribute to helping Ukraine.”

Other scenarios: Rangel acknowledged the possibility of "other scenarios" in which Portugal's support would be useful and would not include the presence of Portuguese military personnel on Ukrainian territory in the future, namely in education. He recalled the conversation he had with the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, last Friday during a visit to Kyiv, the capital of the country invaded more than three years ago by Russia.

"Aid to Ukraine is unquestionable [...], we are prepared," he said. The minister also said that the government, which cannot make any commitments because of the early parliamentary elections, will hold a dialogue with the opposition on the next parameters of support for Ukraine.

(André Campos Ferrão | Lusa.pt)

Eastern Europe
  [Janos Kummer/Getty Images]

BUDAPEST

A proposal to ban annual pride parades in Hungary  and permit authorities to use facial recognition software to identify attendees was introduced in parliament on Monday, with an expectation for it to pass due to the two-thirds majority currently held by Viktor Orbán's populist right-wing party.

According to a draft of the proposal, event organisers as well as participants could face fines of up to €500 if the ban is ignored. The draft is formally an amendment to the 2021 Child Protection Act, which prohibits minors from accessing media discussing non-heterosexual lifestyles. Assemblies are already mentioned, but the amendment would explicitly name the parade as a violation of the act.



Orbán expands tax relief for Hungary's mothers. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán announced on Sunday that mothers with one child would be exempt from paying income tax until they turn 30, beginning on 1 January 2026. Mothers with two or more children would be exempt for life.

The measure expands on a previous ruling granting lifelong exemption for mothers with four or more children.

This coincides with a renewed emphasis on financial support for traditional family units and a drive to boost the country's birth rates. Orbán has taken up the issue of financial stability for families in preparation for Hungary's parliamentary election in April 2026.

(Bella Zielinski | Euractiv)

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WARSAW

Russian intelligence linked to arson attacks in Poland and Lithuania. The Lithuanian Prosecutor's Office has stated that Russian intelligence is responsible for the fire at an Ikea store in Vilnius and the arson attack on a market hall in Warsaw, which was later cleared up.The information, provided by Arturas Urbelis of the Lithuanian General Prosecutor's Office, relates to the investigation into the arson of an Ikea store in Vilnius on 9 May 2024.

Ukrainian citizens: Both suspects of the terrorist attack are Ukrainian citizens. One entered Lithuania via Poland, while the other is currently being held in Poland. Law enforcement agencies in both countries are cooperating closely and coordinating their actions.

According to Vilnius, the same people may have been behind a series of arson attacks in Poland last year, including one at a large shopping center at 44 Marywilska Street in Warsaw.

Russian operations: “We have evidence that several groups in Poland are carrying out sabotage operations on behalf of Russian intelligence," Przemysław Nowak, spokesman for the Polish prosecutor's office,” said on Monday. This was confirmed by Interior Minister Tomasz Siemoniak, who said that "Russian intelligence services ordered arson attacks on large commercial facilities [in Poland], including the hall in Marywilska.

The Lithuanian reports were “in line with our suspicions,” Prime Minister Donald Tusk wrote on X. "As in the attempted arson of a paint factory in Wroclaw, the Russians hired Ukrainian citizens. Totally insidious,” he added. Despite initial statements, reports that the same people were responsible for the fires in Vilnius and Warsaw's Marywilska Street were later corrected by the Polish judiciary.

(Aleksandra Krzysztoszek | Euractiv.pl)

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BRATISLAVA

Slovakia's Fico doubles down on effort to restore Russian gas transit through Ukraine. Slovakia will continue its diplomatic efforts to restore Russian gas transit through Ukraine, reiterated Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico during Monday's meeting with ambassadors from EU countries in Slovakia.

“Without gas transit through Ukraine, Europe will never be competitive,” Fico wrote on Facebook after the meeting.

Ahead of EU Council: In light of the latest European Council meeting, he also reiteratedthat Slovakia will not participate in any military mission in Ukraine and will not allocate “a single cent” for military aid to Ukraine. At the same time, Fico supported holding another joint meeting of the Slovak and Ukrainian governments focused on “mutually beneficial projects”.

Without any context, Fico also wrote that Slovakia will never support any EU sanctions against Hungary for its sovereign positions, possibly referring to the Estonian foreign minister's recent comments that Hungary´s voting rights in the Council should be suspended because of its actions against European common interests.

(Zuzana Gabrižová | Euractiv.sk)

The Balkans

SOFIA

Bulgaria declares day of mourning in solidarity with North Macedonian fire victims. Bulgaria declared a day of mourning on Tuesday in solidarity with the victims of the fire in a North Macedonian disco. Fourteen seriously injured Macedonian citizens are being treated in Bulgarian hospitals, and the authorities in Sofia reacted immediately to the information about the tragic incident in the Macedonian city of Kocani and sent ambulances and a military plane to help transport the victims.

Bulgarian PM calls for solidarity: “We are ready to accept more people. We have the potential to help, we have provided opportunities for the relatives of the victims to arrive in Bulgaria to support them,” Bulgarian Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov said.

He expressed hope that at this difficult moment, Bulgarians and Macedonians will “put aside the hustle and bustle of everyday life in order to be united.”

Dozens of people have responded to calls to donate blood for the victims who are being treated in Bulgaria. Civic campaigns are also underway to raise funds to help the victims. The fire in the discotheque in Kocani killed at least 59 people and injured over 150, most of them seriously.

Bulgaria reacted immediately to the serious incident, and the announcement of a day of mourning is a show of empathy that could reduce the tension in bilateral relations between Sofia and Skopje.

North Macedonia cannot begin official negotiations for EU membership due to the Bulgarian veto.

(Krassen Nikolov | Euractiv.bg)

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BUCHAREST

Far-right candidate projected to lead first round of Romanian election but lose runoff. A far-right candidate is projected to win the first round of Romania’s presidential election, according to an opinion poll conducted by the AtlasIntel institute for Hotnews, a Euractiv Romania partner.

Reversal expected: In the second round, however, the situation would reverse. After the Romanian Constitutional court rejected the candidacy of pro-Russian Călin Georgescu, the far-right AUR and POT parties decided to enter both of their leaders into the race, with one expected to withdraw after candidacies are validated.

In the first round, set for May 4, AUR leader George Simion is projected to receive 30.4% of the vote, followed by the current mayor of Bucharest, Nicușor Dan, with 26%, and the joint candidate of the PSD-PNL-UDMR government coalition, Crin Antonescu, with 17.9%. Pro-EU liberal USR leader Elena Lasconi would receive only 3.9%.

In a scenario where POT leader Anamaria Gavrilă represents the far-right, she is projected to win 30.2% of the vote, with Nicușor Dan at 25.3%, Crin Antonescu at 17.7%, Victor Ponta at 9.2%, and Elena Lasconi at 3.9%.

However, in each second-round scenario, Nicușor Dan is forecasted to receive the most votes, regardless of his opponent.

(Catalina Mihai | Euractiv.ro)

Agenda
  • EUGeneral Affairs Council convenes to discuss EU-UK relations, legislative programming, and more;
  • Commission President Ursula von der Leyen hosts WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala; Participates in informal dinner with European Council President António Costa, UN Secretary General António Guterres;
  • High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas meets United Kingdom Chief of the Defence Staff Tony Radakin;
  • Commission Vice President Teresa Ribera participates in Parliament’s Environment, Climate and Food Safety Committee debate on “Clean, Just and Competitive Transition”;
  • Vice President Roxana Mînzatu delivers speech at FLAI annual report presentation on working conditions in the agricultural sector; Meets with LERU (League of European Research Universities) representatives; Participates in Parliament’s conference on “How to accelerate Gender Equality in the EU?”
  • Vice President Raffaele Fitto participates in European Court of Auditors (ECA) Conference on Cohesion Policy Future;
  • Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis hosts Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Secretary General Mathias Corman;
  • Equality Commissioner Hadja Lahbib meets with UN Special Representative for Children and Armed Conflict Virginia Gamba;
  • Mediterranean Commissioner Dubravka Šuica meets with Minister of Social Affairs of Lebanon Haneen Sayed;
  • Parliament President Roberta Metsola meets with European Council President Antonio Costa;
  • Parliament Committees on Transport & Tourism, Security & Defence and Budgetary Control hold joint meeting on ECA special report on military mobility.

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[Edited by Vas Panagiotopoulos, Charles Szumski, Daniel Eck, Sofia Mandilara]

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