HOW TO THINK ABOUT IT Far from over. After losing swathes of territory in Iraq and Syria, the Islamic State’s dream of cobbling together a caliphate in the Middle East may be gone. But recent attacks — not only this week’s in Syria, but on Christmas Day in Iraq — seem to support analysts’ claims that the group won’t be totally defeated without a comprehensive stabilization plan in place in those countries. Al-Shabab, meanwhile, is still terrorizing Somalia despite being ousted from major towns and cities in recent years. A double bombing near the presidential palace in Mogadishu killed at least 20 people last month just weeks after an attack on a religious center in a central region killed 15. And in Kabul this week, a Taliban suicide bombing killed an American and an Indian, plus two others. Blurred lines. The apparent resilience of these groups could be partly due to their willingness to collaborate. Local al-Qaida affiliate al-Shabab, for instance, deepened its ties with militants in nearby Tanzania as Somali authorities cracked down at home. On a separate continent, Russia’s Federal Security Service recently warned that the Islamic State could merge with al-Qaida amid the Syrian- and U.S.-led offensives — a tactic the group has reportedly tested before in Afghanistan with the Taliban. Such cooperation is old news for security services in Pakistan, where analysts believe several terrorist organizations, particularly the Haqqani group, have long coordinated with counterparts to maximize their effectiveness. Shifting focus? Potentially troubling for global anti-terrorism efforts is Washington’s recent pivot toward planning for more traditional warfare against state actors. Last year, then-Defense Secretary James Mattis cited China and Russia as the country’s greatest threats, while the Pentagon’s reportedly prioritizing investment in space technology and artificial intelligence. Afghan officials are undoubtedly worried about President Donald Trump’s plan to pull some 7,000 U.S. troops from their country. So far, though, little has changed on the ground: After all, the American troops targeted in this week’s Syria bombing were on patrol, while their planned withdrawal doesn’t seem to be speeding up. Meanwhile, there are still more than 1,000 U.S. troops in Africa — from Niger to Djibouti — training local forces and sometimes even venturing into the field alongside them. Picking up the slack. Where American forces do cut back, Washington’s allies may need to devote more of their own resources to tackle terror threats. France has already signaled that it will retain its military presence in Syria after the U.S. withdraws. That’s in addition to its ongoing operations in Mali and several other countries around the southern Sahara, where French and African troops are fighting jihadists across wide swathes of desert. And despite a steady decline in Islamic State-related attacks in the Middle East, experts say the group has actually shifted its resources to North and Sub-Saharan Africa. That might partly explain why Nigeria remains the third-most terrorized country, according to the Global Terrorism Index, while Somalia and Egypt clocked the highest increases in terrorism deaths in 2017. |
