This gauge says no recession

The US junk bond market is forecasting that the economy may weaken, but won’t tip into a recession. The indicators come as Federal Reserve officials vow to continue to fight inflation aggressively, even if higher rates increase the risk of a downturn. But some strategists and money managers think credit markets aren’t paying enough attention to how bad any potential upcoming downturn could be. —David E. Rovella

Bloomberg is tracking the coronavirus pandemic and the progress of global vaccination efforts.

US stocks snapped a two-day decline as corporate earnings and economic data came in better than expected. Treasuries trimmed losses as traders priced in further interest-rate hikes from the Fed. Solid reports from vaccine-maker Moderna and PayPal pushed the Nasdaq 100 up as much as 3%, taking it to a level last seen in May. The S&P 500 closed up 1.6%. Here’s your markets wrap.

In roughly 24 hours, Chinese officials and propagandists went from warning of confrontation to pleading for patience as Beijing struggled to articulate a cohesive response to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s landmark trip to Taiwan. Ahead of Pelosi’s visit, Chinese leader Xi Jinping warned the Biden administration would get “burned” while nationalist Chinese commentators suggested she would “ignite the powder keg.” Yet after Pelosi landed safely, stayed the night in Taipei and hailed US-Taiwan ties in a meeting with President, China’s tone shifted from belligerent to defensive.

Republican nominees for statewide office who subscribe to Donald Trump’s falsehoods about the 2020 vote could—if they win in November—hold sway over elections in four states, all battlegrounds. The prospect significantly accelerates the two-year-old GOP effort to restrict access to voting in states it controls while placing partisans in charge of deciding if elections are fair.

Tesla hosts its annual meeting on Thursday from its new plant in Austin, Texas, where the biggest item on the agenda is a likely shoo-in proposal clearing the way for a 3-for-1 stock split. With Elon Musk though, who knows what will happen.

It’s “wishful thinking” to expect relations between Russia and the West to return to their pre-war status soon after the fighting stops in Ukraine, as the Kremlin appears bent on creating a buffer between itself and NATO, Romania’s prime minister warned. Meanwhile, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres skewered Big Oil, saying it’s “immoral for oil and gas companies to be making record profits from this energy crisis” spawned by Vladimir Putin’s war. He called for nations to impose excess profit taxes.

President Joe Biden predicted the threat to abortion rights would drive people to the polls in November after Kansas voters rejected an effort to strip abortion protections from the state constitution. Speaking before signing an executive order on abortion access, Biden called the surprise Kansas vote a “decisive victory.”

The smaller version of his “Build Back Better” plan hashed out by Senate Democrats would reduce federal budget deficits by $102 billion over 10 years, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said. In addition, the CBO calculated that increasing the Internal Revenue Service budget would generate $204 billion in new revenue from cracking down on tax avoidance, something that wasn’t included in the official deficit score. When that’s factored in, the CBO analysis is in line with the $300 billion in deficit reduction claim initially made for the bill by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin. The bill, if passed, would among other things mark an unprecedented American effort to fight global warming. But there’s just one problem: Kyrsten Sinema. A major beneficiary of Wall Street largesse, the Arizona Democrat may be positioning herself along with 50 Senate Republicans to blow up the historic deal unless she gets changes that favor big corporations and fund managers.

The “recovery” technology industry claims to help athletes bounce back after training. Players have endorsed everything from massage guns to cryo-chambers, and even professional sports leagues are getting in on the action. But the science behind many of these products is questionable—at best. On this episode of “Business of Sports,” we explore how the industry got its start, how recovery tech has become really big business, and how even if there isn’t a lot of peer-reviewed research behind it, what stars are using on the sidelines, in locker rooms and at home might help them excel in unforeseen ways.

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Bloomberg Technology Summit: The global economy is being redesigned amid surging inflation, the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia’s war on Ukraine and the current bear market. Join Bloomberg Live in London and virtually on Sept. 28 to hear Europe’s business leaders, policymakers, entrepreneurs and investors explain how they’re adapting to this environment and discuss strategies to create business models that foster growth and innovation. Register here.