“We have been the dumb and helpless ‘whipping post,’ but not any longer,” Trump posted with characteristic understatement on Truth Social. “THIS IS AN ECONOMIC REVOLUTION, AND WE WILL WIN.” While the US clean energy sector is blossoming – almost all new power flowing to American grids this year will come from solar, wind and batteries – the vast majority of solar panels and wind turbine parts are imported. Tariffs could hike the cost of vital components needed for the world’s largest economy to shift away from planet-heating fossil fuels. But while renewables developers fret about cancelled or scaled-back projects, hampering the task of slashing the carbon pollution that is driving climate disasters around the world, the threat of tariffs is also causing consternation within the sector most devoted to Trump: the fossil fuel industry. Even though the Trump administration tariffs helpfully exclude oil and gas, companies still need steel, aluminium and other materials to build infrastructure such as pipelines and compressors. Several of the Asian countries affected by tariffs not only supply the goods needed by fossil fuel firms, they are also among those expected to increase their own oil consumption in the near future. That thirst for oil may now be dampened. “Drill, baby, drill” is quickly becoming “stop, Donald, stop”. The stock market value of several oil and gas companies slumped at news of the tariffs, with the price of a barrel of crude oil plunging close to the $61 that is seen as the threshold of profitability before bouncing back slightly on Wednesday after Trump’s U-turn. Big oil executives who bankrolled Trump’s election with tens of millions of dollars aren’t happy. “The administration’s chaos is a disaster for the commodity markets. ‘Drill, baby, drill’ is nothing short of a myth and populist rallying cry,” one executive told the Dallas Fed last month, before the latest tariffs came into force. “I have never felt more uncertainty about our business in my entire 40-plus-year career,” said another. Given the unpredictability of the impact of tariffs – and of Trump himself – it’s unclear how all this will affect the broader fight to tackle the climate crisis. Even when there is a temporary industry snarl-up, such as the impact of Russia invading Ukraine, the fossil fuelled status quo often quickly reimposes itself. But if the global economy does slow down, that means less consumption of oil, gas and coal, as well as painful hardship for people. Americans might buy fewer cars of all types. Tariffed countries may divert solar panels from a walled-off US to other countries, hastening their own clean energy transition. Perhaps Donald Trump is secretly a growth-sceptic greenie. Read more: |