With no end in sight, Ukraine reckons with trauma, triumph – and the path ahead

Good morning. Today marks 559 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with no sign of resolution in sight.

First Edition today is for those of you who, like me, need a recap on where the conflict is at. Maybe you are feeling a bit guilty for taking your eye off this relentless battle and want to understand why Volodymyr Zelenskiy sacked his defence minister on the weekend. Perhaps you were wondering whether Ukrainian defiance is waning after 18 months of brutal warfare, or whether the Ukrainians in your spare room are likely to be able to return home any time soon.

Our guide is the multi-award-winning Guardian and Observer foreign correspondent Emma Graham-Harrison. She returned on Sunday night from her latest trip to Ukraine, where she visited a factory making decoy military hardware to fool Russian drones and secured an exclusive interview with a top general, who revealed that his troops have made significant progress in breaking Russia’s first defensive line near Zaporizhzhia – a line the Russians had spent 60% of their time and resources building, in the hope it would end up as impenetrable as the North Korean border.

First, the headlines.

Five big stories

In depth: ‘If Russia stops fighting, the war ends. If they stop fighting, there is no more Ukraine’

What is the mood like in Ukraine?

Joining Ukrainians last month as they marked Independence Day with a display of destroyed Russian tanks for the second year in a row, Emma Graham-Harrison detected a distinct shift in mood. “Last year, there was an almost euphoric atmosphere, despite the death and horror and exhilaration, that Ukraine managed to save Kyiv and liberate much of Kharkiv,” she says.

“The war has been going on so long and the death toll so high, that the national mood is now clouded by a sense of very real trauma. Casualty figures are a state secret, but by US estimates, reported by the New York Times, at least 70,000 Ukrainians have been killed,” says Emma. “Everyone in Ukraine knows someone who has been killed or badly injured, and many many people have lost family or close friends. Dying for your country isn’t an abstract ideal, it’s a painful and very real price too many have already paid.”

What hasn’t faded, says Emma, “is the Ukrainian determination to fight”. However weary they may be, they still see the war as an existential challenge for their country. “The way they see it, if Russia stops fighting, the war ends. If they stop fighting, there is no more Ukraine.”

Who is winning?

“This war is not anywhere near its end. But Russia has been humiliated militarily, and Ukraine has stunned the world with the most effective conventional warfare campaigns – against a formidable enemy – that Europe has seen since the second world war,” says Emma. “Look back at the start of the war: the Americans told Zelenskiy to leave Kyiv. The Russians went to Kyiv with parade uniforms in their backpacks, ready for the victory parade they thought they’d hold after three days.”

The Russian goals quickly shifted to taking back the Donbas region, containing the self-declared “people’s republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk. “And they haven’t even managed to get those. They emptied the Russian prisons to take [the eastern city of] Bakhmut but they were kicked out of Kherson, which was the only regional capital they took in in its 2022 drive,” says Emma.

Last month the Ukrainians carried out a successful sabotage operation in the Crimea, which involved landing Ukrainian troops, “killing a load of Russians, destroying some military things and getting home safely”, says Emma. Ukrainian drones are also repeatedly closing Moscow’s airport, hitting targets across Russia and have destroyed serious military assets, like this supersonic bomber.

Why did Zelenskiy sack his defence secretary?

Sacking Oleksii Reznikov, who has been running the defence ministry since the war began, is “not about military strategy”, insists Emma. “It’s about corruption and procurement.”

As Luke Harding has reported, in January, two senior officials in Reznikov’s ministry were dismissed after allegations the ministry had inflated contracts for food supplied to troops, including eggs. The latest allegations involved a batch of winter coats that turned out to be more like summer jackets, and with vastly inflated price tags.

The defence ministry is suing to recoup money paid for weapons that were not delivered. Zelenskiy may also face a general election next March, and wants to show he has no tolerance for cronyism and corruption so as not to damage conscription.

What prospect for peace talks?

Ukrainians have no appetite for putting down their weapons and talking to Putin instead, says Emma – an approach pushed by former French president Nicolas Sarkozy and many in the US, who believe Ukraine must accept the permanent loss of Crimea and other occupied territory and be excluded from Nato and the EU.

“This idea of talks to me is classic case of wishful thinking,” says Emma. “These imaginary peace talks would require both sides to be willing to talk, and it is clear that neither is.

“The big cloud on the horizon is the American elections next year, and a Republican potentially becoming president. In Europe, support for Ukraine is essentially non-partisan. In the US the opposite is true.”

A recent poll for CNN found that 71% of Republicans opposed new funding for Ukraine, with 62% of Democrats in favour. Donald Trump, the overwhelming favourite to be the Republican presidential candidate in 2024, has been vocal in his scepticism about arming Ukraine, a position echoed by many other senior figures in the party.

Emma thinks the belief that appeasing Russia is a way out of the war is dangerous. “Putin now has a nearly two-decade-long track record of international aggression. His fortunes in this war are being watched by autocrats around the world, not least China, which is open about its designs on Taiwan. If it ends with anything other than a clear defeat for Russia, he will effectively be rewarded for taking territory by force. Is that a precedent we want to collectively set?”

And for those readers who opened their homes to Ukrainians last year and are wondering when they might get their spare room back, Emma has mixed news. “If the Ukrainians manage to do OK on the heating and electricity front this winter, more people will return,” she says. “But for those who want to wait until the war is over, you’re looking at at least a year, probably longer.”

What else we’ve been reading

I must admit, I have mocked the sublets that are advertised online for laughably short stints of time. But the underlying causes that drive people to do this are not very funny, Daisy Jones writes. Nimo

Blinking heck, Seal is 60. Ammar Kalia meets the ever-optimistic Killer singer (pictured above), as he shares his thoughts on growing up in care, the primary school teacher who believed in him — and above all, love. Helen

Since Starbucks workers began unionising in late 2021, the employer has been accused of firing staff for participating in union activity. Michael Sainato spoke to former Starbucks employees who feel they have been unfairly dismissed by the company about how the firing has impacted them and why they are disputing it. Nimo

Those of us who came of age in a simpler time of terrestrial telly will enjoy Daisy Schofield’s nostalgia look back at the golden era of kids’ TV, featuring contributions from the Krankies, Dick and Dom and the bloke who voiced Zippy on Rainbow. Helen

As the Hollywood strikes continues, studios typically to lean on reality TV stars and producers to keep the money flowing. Nelini Stamp argues that reality stars and workers have had enough of low pay and terrible conditions. Nimo

Sport

US Open | Jack Draper’s promising US Open run has ended after Andrey Rublev, the eighth seed, used all of his experience and nous to narrowly edge out his younger challenger 6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 after a gruelling 2hr 45min on Louis Armstrong Stadium. Madison Keys stunned third-seeded Jessica Pegula 6-1, 6-3 in an all-American clash at Arthur Ashe Stadium, reaching the quarter-finals for the first time since 2018.

Football | Manchester United are standing by Erik ten Hag’s comments about Jadon Sancho (pictured above) following their 3-1 defeat to Arsenal, with the player risking disciplinary action over his social media outburst after the game. Ten Hag omitted Sancho from the matchday squad due to “his performances in training”, which prompted a rebuttal from Sancho, who claimed he was a “scapegoat”.

Basketball | A Serbian player has had a kidney removed after taking an elbow to his midsection during a game against South Sudan at the Basketball World Cup. Nuni Omot issued an apology for the incident after Wednesday’s game.

The front pages

Front-page lead in our Guardian print edition is “Sunak under pressure over school funding as concrete crisis grows”. The Times has “Tories ‘have put sticking plaster on risky concrete’” while the Daily Telegraph says “Concrete crisis and ‘hot mic’ rant leave Keegan fighting for survival”. The Daily Mirror calls Gillian Keegan and Rishi Sunak “Class clowns” over the RAAC debacle, while the Daily Mail has “Minister’s TV blunder that says it all about Tory chaos”. “Concrete bungle” says the Metro and that’s even the top story in the Financial Times: “Crumbling schools crisis puts Sunak on back foot as two byelections loom”. The Daily Express looks elsewhere for its splash: “‘Miracle’ weight loss jab to save lives and cut £6.5bn bill”. The i fills page one with the Labour cabinet reshuffle: “Starmer calls up Blairites to fight election – as Left demoted”.

Today in Focus

Cartoon of the day | Martin Rowson

The Upside

A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad

In Sierra Leone’s capital, Koidu, a new maternity centre is being built. The Maternal Center of Excellence will serve the hospital next door, and is a welcome change for a country which had one of the highest rates globally for maternal mortality only three years ago. Sierra Leone’s healthcare system has been deeply effected by the civil war and numerous Ebola outbreaks which killed 7% of its healthcare workers. This 166-bed facility marks the beginning of a new era – 60% of the people wearing hard hats on site are women and many of those are working in construction for the first time. After word got out that it was a safe space to work and expand their skills, more and more women came seeking employment, until eventually they made up most of the workforce.

Crucially, the centre will provide a lifeline for women who need access to all kinds of reproductive healthcare: “It’s a dream come true. Aside from being spacious, it will meet the needs of what people actually want: quality,” says Therisa Mye-Kamara.

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