This Will Not Be a Normal Recession!

Michael Oliver is my guest this week.In a recent article by Bloomberg’s Simon White, he suggested that this emerging recession is likely to be quite a bit different from the garden variety recession. He suggested that Treasuries may not deliver the same degree of protection as they do in most recessions. Secondly Simon suggested that equity holders may not face nearly as much pain as in prior recessions. He pointed to the CoppockCurve which is indicating a rare buy signal for stocks at this stage of a credit cycle. Also different is the fact that gold and silver have already been rallying, intimating those markets are already sniffing out the fact that this will not be a garden-variety recession. Perhaps they are perceiving the threat of continually rising inflation in which case Treasuries will be an inadequate hedge. And if inflation is to be an ongoing problem, perhaps the entire commodity sector may be worth allocating some investment dollars to. Michael, who relies on is own very successful proprietary technical analysis, will be asked to opine on Simon’s views, by applying his own technical analysis.

J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton’s International Commodity Division, NYC. He studied under David Johnson, head of Hutton’s Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.

In the 1980’s Oliver began to develop his own momentum-based method of technical analysis. In 1987 Oliver, along with his futures client accounts (Oliver had trading POA) technically anticipated and captured the Crash. Oliver began to realize that his emergent momentum-structural-based tools should be further developed into a full analytic methodology.

In 1992 he was asked by the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank’s Trust Department to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year Oliver shifted from brokerage to full-time technical research. MSA has provided its proprietary technical research services to financial and asset management clients continually since 1992. Oliver is the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism.