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| Friday, December 30, 2022 |
| Welcome to the final Pick Six newsletter of 2022! |
| It's Dec. 30 and I have no idea how we got here. I mean, I don't even remember October ending. Since the new year is coming this weekend, we decided that now would be a good time to come up with one resolution for each NFL team, so that's one of the things we'll be doing in today's newsletter. |
| My personal resolution is to drink less coffee because I'm starting to think that 17 cups per day might not be good for my health. Besides handing out resolutions, we'll also be taking a look at the Titans' suddenly interesting QB situation, plus we'll be making some picks for all the key games in Week 17. |
| Alright, let's get to the final rundown of 2022. |
| Remember, if you're hanging out with family and/or friends this weekend, you should tell them all to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here and then share this link with them. Signing someone up makes a great gift for the new year and that's mainly because it's free. Everyone loves free. |
| 1. Today's show: Titans might have a QB controversy after putting scare into Cowboys |
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| The final Thursday night game of the year was surprisingly entertaining. With the Titans benching most of their starters, the game seemed destined to be a Cowboys blowout win. Instead, we actually got some drama, as it was a one-score game in the fourth quarter before Dallas pulled away to win 27-13. |
| Following the game, Ryan Wilson, Will Brinson and I got together to record a 25-minute podcast about the contest. Here are a few key points that we went over: |
| Titans might have a QB controversy. With Ryan Tannehill done for the season, the prevailing thought was that rookie Malik Willis would be the team's starter in Week 18 against Jacksonville, but that might not be the case anymore. Titans coach Mike Vrabel surprised everyone Thursday by making Josh Dobbs the starting QB, and even though he had only been on the roster for eight days prior to making the start, he actually looked pretty good considering the circumstances, completing 20 of 39 passes for 232 yards and a touchdown. Those numbers are extremely impressive when you consider Willis didn't top 100 passing yards in any of this three starts this year. (He's only thrown for a TOTAL of 234 yards in his three starts combined.) Dobbs' showing was also impressive when you consider that he did this without several Titans offensive starters on the field, including Derrick Henry. Vrabel won't commit to a QB for Week 18. Following the game, Vrabel refused to name a starter for Tennessee's pivotal Week 18 game against the Jaguars. "It was a great opportunity to evaluate Josh, and we'll make a decision going forward," Vrabel said, via the team's official website . "I thought he did some good things, and obviously a couple of throws he'd like to have back. We'll see where things are here in a couple of days." The Titans offense sputtered under Willis in three different games this year, and based on what Dobbs was able to accomplish against the Cowboys after just eight days on the roster, the guess here is that he ends up being named the starter for next week's game, which will be for the AFC South title. Cowboys don't look impressive. With the Titans benching multiple starters Thursday, this felt like a game the Cowboys should have dominated, but that's not what happened. Going into the fourth quarter, this was a four-point game (17-13), and that's mostly because the Cowboys couldn't get out of their own way. During one stretch in the first half, the Cowboys turned the ball over on three straight possession, and each one of those turnovers came from Dak Prescott, who lost a fumble on a snap while also throwing two interceptions. Prescott has thrown 12 interceptions since Week 10, which is the most in the NFL. He's also tied for the league-lead in interceptions on the season (14) even though he missed five games with a thumb injury. If Prescott can't shake these struggles, it's going to be hard for the Cowboys to get out of the first-round of the playoffs. The Cowboys did have two offensive bright spots with CeeDee Lamb (11 catches, 100 yards) and Dalton Schultz (seven catches, 56 yards, two touchdowns). With his 100-yard performance, Lamb is now the first Cowboys receiver since Terrell Owens in 2007 to hit the 100-yard mark in three straight games. Cowboys still alive for NFC East title. Even though it was an ugly win, it still counts in the standings. And thanks to the win, the Cowboys still have an outside shot at the NFC title. If the Cowboys want to win the division, they need to win in Week 18 against Washington and they need the Eagles to lose their final two games (Saints, Giants). Although the odds are stacked against the Cowboys, it's not impossible. The Eagles might not have Jalen Hurts Sunday while playing a desperate Saints (6-9) that will be looking to stay in the NFC South title race with a win. If the Eagles do win Sunday against New Orleans, that means the Cowboys will be locked into the fifth seed, and if that happens, it means that Dallas will be opening the postseason on the road against the winner of the NFC South. It also means that the Cowboys could rest their starters in Week 18 against the Commanders. |
| If you want to hear our entire recap of the game, be sure to click here. You can also watch today's episode on YouTube by clicking here. |
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| 2. Today's show Part II: Best bets for Week 17 |
| The best part about Friday -- besides the fact that it's Friday -- is that you get two episodes of the podcast in your feed. After recording the Thursday night postgame podcast with Wilson and myself, Brinson kicked us to the curb so that he could record his weekly picks show with Pete Prisco and R.J. White. |
| Those three guys spent nearly 60 minutes going over their best bets for every single game being played in Week 17, and we're going to cover three of those bets from each guy below. You might want to pay extra close attention to the guys this week after they combined to go 7-2 in Week 16. |
| Pete Prisco (3-0 last week in picks covered here, 29-18-1 on the season) |
| Panthers (+3) to cover against the BuccaneersPackers (-3.5) to cover against the VikingsJets (-1.5) to cover against the Seahawks |
| R.J. White (2-1 last week in picks covered here, 27-19-2 on the season) |
| Cardinals (+3.5) to cover against the FalconsDolphins (+3) to cover against the PatriotsRavens (-2.5) to cover against the Steelers |
| Will Brinson (2-1 last week in picks covered here, 24-23-1 on the season) |
| Seahawks (+1.5) to cover against the JetsBengals (+1) to cover against the BillsBears at Lions OVER 52 points |
| To hear what the rest of the best bets are for Week 17 -- and there are quite a few -- you can check out the episode on YouTube by clicking here. |
| 3. Week 17 picks: Steelers and Panthers pull off upsets |
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| This is the final newsletter of the week, which means we will be cramming as many picks as humanly possible into this space. |
| With that in mind, we've got four more Week 17 picks coming your way, and those will be coming from NFL senior writer Pete Prisco, along with Jordan Dajani, Tyler Sullivan and myself. |
| Here's how things are going to work: I'm going to give you one pick from each guy and then direct you to the rest of their picks. That way, if you like their pick, you'll be able to read the rest of them, but if they pick against your favorite team, you can ignore the rest of their picks and move on. |
| Pete Prisco -- Commanders (-1.5) 23-21 over Browns. From Prisco: "The Commanders need to win out to make the playoffs. The Browns are eliminated. Cleveland's offense has done little with Deshaun Watson, while the Washington defense presents a big problem. Look for the Commanders to run it a lot at a bad Cleveland defense. They win it and keep pushing to the postseason." For the rest of Prisco's Week 17 picks, be sure to click here . Tyler Sullivan -- Panthers (+3) 23-20 over Buccaneers. From Sullivan: "If the Panthers wins this game and their regular-season finale against New Orleans, they'd win the division crown, which would be remarkable considering the turnover the Panthers have faced this season. (Remember, this team fired its coach and traded Christian McCaffrey.) The Panthers are playing better football than the Bucs right now and that's why I'm taking them." For the rest of Sullivan's Week 17 picks, be sure to click here .Jordan Dajani -- Eagles (-6) 28-20 over Saints. From Dajani: "The Saints have the worst scoring offense in the NFL since Week 9 (14.9 points per game). They've toughed out two wins in a row against lesser opponents, but now they get one of the best teams in the NFL on the road. The Eagles can clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a win here, and that's what I think happens." For the rest of Dajani's Week 17 best bets, be sure to click here. John Breech -- Steelers (+2.5) 20-17 over Ravens. The Steelers' playoff hopes are on life support and for some reason, they seem to thrive when they have their backs against the wall, so I'm going to take them in the upset. The Steelers are only surrendering 15 points per game over the past five weeks, so I fully expect their defense to carry the load here. For the rest of my Week 17 picks, be sure to click here. |
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| 4. Bold predictions for Week 17: Packers keep playoff hopes alive, Lions get eliminated |
| There's nothing we love here more than making bold predictions, so we asked Tyler Sullivan to come up with some for Week 17. |
| With that in mind, let's take a look at his predictions: |
| Packers keep playoff hopes alive. "At 12-3, the Vikings have been a little bit of fool's gold as they've routinely come out on the right end of one-score games and boast a defense that is statistically one of the worst units in the league. They've allowed 30.3 points per game over the last seven games (worst in the NFL) and are giving up 402.3 total yards per game on the year (31st in the NFL). With that in mind, this is an extremely favorable matchup for Aaron Rodgers, who is 27-4 in the regular season in December and January at home. That includes nine straight wins coming into this game where he has thrown for 20 touchdowns and just two picks."Panthers top Tom Brady's Buccaneers. "Carolina is scoring 26.5 points per game since Week 12 and has gone 3-1 over that stretch thanks to a dominating rushing attack. The Panthers are going to slow this game down and dominate time of possession thanks to that stellar rushing attack, giving them an old-school-style victory that puts them in the driver's seat of this division race."Lions get eliminated from playoff contention. "The Detroit Lions are going to turn back into a pumpkin in Week 17. That transition already started last week when they were run over by the Carolina Panthers to the tune of 320 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Now, a loss against Chicago and a win by the Washington Commanders -- who host the Cleveland Browns on Sunday -- would be the final two nails in their coffin, and that's what I expect to happen." |
| For a full look at all five of Sullivan's bold predictions, be sure to click here. |
| 5. Playoff-clinching scenarios: Bills and Eagles can clinch top overall seeds in Week 17 |
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| With just two weeks left in the season, the NFL playoff picture is starting to take shape. By the end of the weekend, 12 of the 14 playoff spots could be taken. |
| Here are the the playoff-clinching scenarios for Week 17: |
DOLPHINS (8-7)
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| Can clinch playoff berth with: Dolphins win over Patriots PLUS Jets lose or tie against Seattle. |
GIANTS (8-6-1)
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Can clinch playoff berth with: Giants win over Colts.
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COMMANDERS (7-7-1)
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| Can clinch playoff berth with: Commanders win over Browns PLUS Seahawks loss to Jets PLUS Lions loss to Bears PLUS Packers loss to Vikings |
BUCCANEERS (7-8)
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| Can clinch playoff berth and NFC South title with: Buccaneers win over Panthers. |
BILLS (12-3)
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| Can clinch No. 1 seed in the AFC with: Bills win over Bengals PLUS Broncos win over Chiefs. |
BENGALS (11-4)
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| Can clinch AFC North title with: Bengals win over Bills PLUS Ravens loss or tie to Steelers |
| EAGLES (13-2) |
| Can clinch the NFC East and the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC with: Eagles win over Saints. |
| Remember, this just represents the easiest clinching/elimination scenario for each of these teams. For a look at every possible playoff-clinching scenario, be sure to click here. |
| No matter what happens this weekend, there will be at least two spots up for grabs heading into Week 18. For one, the AFC South can't be clinched until next week when the Jaguars play the Titans. Also, the Commanders and Dolphins can't BOTH clinch a spot this week since they need opposite outcomes. (The Commanders need the Jets to beat the Seahawks while the Dolphins need the Seahawks to beat the Jets.) Due to that fact, the highest possible number of playoff spots that can be clinched after Week 17 is 12. |
| If you're scoring at home, here's a list of the teams that have already clinched: |
AFC (5 of 7): Bills, Chiefs, Bengals, Ravens, Chargers (BUF and KC have clinched their division title)
NFC (4 of 7): Eagles, Vikings, 49ers, Cowboys (MIN and SF have clinched their division title) |
| Although nine playoffs spots are locked up, all seven seeds in each conference are still wide open since none of them have been clinched, which should add some serious drama to the final two weeks of the regular season. |
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| 6. New Year's resolutions for all 32 teams |
| With the new year less than 48 hours away, we thought we would celebrate that fact today by coming up with one resolution for each NFL team. Since Cody Benjamin is the resolution expert here at CBS Sports -- he's the only one who actually ever keeps his resolution -- we asked him to come up with the list. Here are five of the resolutions he came up with: |
| Dolphins: Dive into the QB market. "Tua Tagovailoa took noticeable steps forward under Mike McDaniel, but he remains a questionable off-script playmaker. More importantly, his health is a bigger priority than his football future; with at least two and maybe three concussions this year, and an injury history dating further back, Miami simply cannot -- and should not -- rely on his availability."Titans: Say farewell to the faces of the franchise. "And by those, we mean Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry. Tannehill is a logical cap casualty: While he helped turn the Titans into what they are today, he's battered, aging and overpriced (due $38M next year). Henry remains a bulldozer, but entering the final year of his deal at a replaceable position, there's no reason he shouldn't be dangled as a trade chip while Mike Vrabel remakes Jon Robinson's setup."Raiders: Follow through with the Derek Carr divorce. "It's time for both sides to go their separate ways. Assuming Josh McDaniels stays, do what you can to give him an old Patriots flame (i.e. Tom Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo) and/or another big fish (i.e. Aaron Rodgers), while potentially pairing said move with a longer-term bet. With a top-10 pick and potential compensation from a Carr trade, they might be positioned to draft a successor, too."Saints: Explore the head coaching market. "Dennis Allen knows how to coach a defense, but the Saints have been one of the most undisciplined teams in the NFL under his watch, and he's yet to log a winning season in more than three years as a head coach during his career." Cardinals: Blow it all up. "The Kyler Murray-Kliff Kingsbury partnership appears as explosive interpersonally as it is mercurial on the field. Sidelined GM Steve Keim, meanwhile, has too often relied on older and/or injury-prone starters. The entire setup needs a shakeup." |
| If you want to check out Cody's full list of resolutions, then be sure to click here. |
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| | | | | College Basketball on CBS | | NFL on CBS | Saturday, before the ball drops, settle in for a college hoops tripleheader on CBS. At 1 PM ET, in-state rivals battle when Louisville faces Kentucky. Then, it’s a Big 12 matchup between Oklahoma State and Kansas, followed by two Mountain West foes going toe to toe when San Diego State meets UNLV.
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| | Sunday, ring in the New Year with an NFL on CBS doubleheader. Only two weeks remain in the regular season, and the teams are making their final playoff push. Early matchups feature a key game in the AFC race, between the Dolphins and Patriots. Then, it’s a huge NFC showdown at Lambeau Field when the Vikings take on Aaron Rodgers and the surging Packers.
Watch Live
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