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| Tuesday, September 3, 2024 |
| Our typical Tuesday newsletter post is going to take a look ahead at the week to come and provide my first set of weekly positional rankings. Yesterday's post mostly served the lookahead purpose, as I didn't have any previous week's data/film to reflect on. That's what will usually be on the docket for Monday's. Since we're ahead of schedule this week, I'll take a bit more time to discuss my rankings in detail. I won't be able to do this every week; there's just a limited amount of time. |
| Do give yesterday's newsletter a read if you missed it! It was a fun post to write, and I'm confident that you'll be more excited and prepared to watch this weekend's games after digging into the Monday publication. |
| Going forward, I will be showing up in your inbox every day of the week except for Saturdays. Let's party. |
| Matchup information, rankings, DFS plays, all of it is coming your way soon. The legendary Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis will be joining Dan and me to forecast Week 1 on Beyond the Boxscore. That conversation will be published on the FFT Express podcast feed on Thursday. Everything that you need to "succeed" in Week 1 will be in your inbox shortly! |
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| If you want to support Dan and me, please subscribe to the FFT Express stream and leave a rating/review that mentions our show! There's already one episode live on the feed if you missed last week's recording with Matthew Berry and the Fantasy Life crew. |
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| Labor Day has come and gone. It is officially Week 1 rankings time. |
| Quarterbacks |
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| Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
QB1 - Josh Allen
QB2 - Jalen Hurts
QB3 - Patrick Mahomes
QB4 - Lamar Jackson
QB5 - C.J. Stroud |
| I love the matchup for Stroud against Indianapolis, but I am a bit worried about Anthony Richardson and the Colts offense. Houston's edge combination of Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter may be the most overwhelming pass rush duo in 2024. Indy's line is strong, but this will be a tough Week 1 test. |
| Tier 2 -- Upside to finish as the top scorer in Fantasy, but there's risk |
QB6 - Anthony Richardson
QB7 - Jayden Daniels
QB8 - Kyler Murray |
| Murray doesn't feel as risky as the other two, but Arizona's implied team total (21 points) for Week 1 is sandwiched right in between Indy (23.25) and Washington (20.25). I feel pretty optimistic about Arizona's offense in this spot, but the Vegas total caught my eye. |
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| Tier 3 -- Betting on touchdowns with pocket passers |
QB9 - Jared Goff
QB10 - Tua Tagovailoa
QB11 - Matthew Stafford
QB12 - Jordan Love
QB13 - Joe Burrow
QB14 - Caleb Williams
QB15 - Trevor Lawrence
QB16 - Geno Smith
QB17 - Dak Prescott
QB18 - Brock Purdy
QB19 - Baker Mayfield
QB20 - Justin Herbert
QB21 - Kirk Cousins |
| Burrow and Prescott feel ridiculously low, but I don't feel great about the vibes around either team entering Week 1. Dallas has had its implied team total bet down below 20 points in anticipation of a road matchup against the Browns defense, and we still have no idea of what is going to happen with Ja'Marr Chase in Cincinnati. The Bengals draw a Patriots defense that has been stingy, and bettors are hitting the under in that game. I'm expecting a lot of Chase Brown on the ground for Cincinnati. |
| Don't let me talk you out of Jordan Love this week. I'm just a little hesitant to attack a Philadelphia defense that I expect to be much improved in 2024. The Packers have a good but not great implied point total (23.5), which is lower than the Lions, Dolphins, Rams, Bears, and Seahawks. |
| Tier 4 -- Fine to start if needed, I would not want to use these players |
QB22 - Daniel Jones
QB23 - Deshaun Watson
QB24 - Aaron Rodgers
QB25 - Sam Darnold
QB26 - Will Levis
QB27 - Derek Carr
QB28 - Russell Wilson
QB29 - Bryce Young
QB30 - Bo Nix
QB31 - Gardner Minshew
QB32 - Jacoby Brissett |
| Running Backs |
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| Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
RB1 - Christian McCaffrey
RB2 - Breece Hall
RB3 - Bijan Robinson
RB4 - Jonathan Taylor
RB5 - De'Von Achane
RB6 - Saquon Barkley
RB7 - Jahmyr Gibbs
RB8 - Kyren Williams
RB9 - Travis Etienne
RB10 - Raheem Mostert |
| Maybe Mostert does not belong in this tier. He did the last time that we saw him healthy. I like this matchup for Miami's ground game, and the Dolphins (26.5-point implied point total) are just 0.75 points short of the highest Week 1 total (Detroit - 27.5). |
| Tier 2 -- Looking like Week 1 workhorses |
RB11 - Derrick Henry
RB12 - Joe Mixon
RB13 - Kenneth Walker
RB14 - James Conner
RB15 - Josh Jacobs |
| Walker is the player who I am the least convinced belongs in this workhorse tier, but his matchup offsets it. We could see him rip off multiple explosive runs in Week 1. |
| Here are a couple of quick reminders on Conner and Jacobs, in case you weren't ready to start them with confidence. |
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| Tier 3 -- These guys are great, their offense may score a buncha points, I do not have any idea what the backfield split will look like. |
RB16 - James Cook
RB17 - Rachaad White
RB18 - Isiah Pacheco
RB21 - David Montgomery |
| I have the least confidence in Cook's role, but the Bills have a much better projected Week 1 offensive environment than Kansas City or Tampa. |
| Tier 4 -- Role and matchup both check out, but can we trust the offensive environment? |
RB19 - Alvin Kamara
RB20 - Aaron Jones
RB22 - Javonte Williams
RB23 - Najee Harris
RB26 - Devin Singletary
RB28 - Rhamondre Stevenson |
| Tier 5 -- I have several concerns |
RB24 - D'Andre Swift (offensive environment/role - I think Khalil Herbert is going to play on early downs)
RB25 - Chase Brown (matchup/role)
RB27 - Tony Pollard (matchup/offensive environment/role)
RB29 - Brian Robinson Kr. (offensive environment/role)
RB30 - Jerome Ford (matchup/offensive environment)
RB34 - Chuba Hubbard (offensive environment/role - surely we're done with Miles Sanders, right?)
RB36 - Tyjae Spears (matchup/offensive environment/role)
RB37 - Zamir White (offensive environment/role) |
| Tier 6 -- I also like to live dangerously |
RB31 - Jaleel McLaughlin
RB32 - J.K. Dobbins
RB33 - Gus Edwards
RB35 - Zack Moss (purely a bet on touchdowns)
RB40 - Ray Davis |
| Tier 7 -- Desperation plays |
RB38 - Austin Ekeler
RB39 - Ezekiel Elliott
RB41 - Jaylen Warren
RB42 - Blake Corum
RB43 - Zach Charbonnet
RB44 - Khalil Herbert
RB45 - Bucky Irving
RB46 - Rico Dowdle
RB47 - Tyler Allgeier
RB48 - Antonio Gibson
RB49 - Ty Chandler
RB50 - Justice Hill |
| Wide Receivers |
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| Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
WR1 - Tyreek Hill
WR2 - Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR3 - CeeDee Lamb
WR4 - Justin Jefferson
WR5 - Nico Collins
WR6 - A.J. Brown
WR7 - Garrett Wilson
WR8 - Deebo Samuel
WR9 - Mike Evans
WR10 - Puka Nacua
WR11 - Jaylen Waddle
WR12 - Davante Adams
WR13 - Rashee Rice |
| Nico Collins at WR5 on opening week, you absolutely love to see it. |
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| I freaking love digging into this matchup data. We'll have more time for that tomorrow. |
| It is Nico Collins SZN, we all know this! I just listened to Hayden Winks rank all 32 NFL defenses, and he placed the Indianapolis Colts at 29th. Hayden put it simply , "If a team has a good WR1, it's pretty much over for the Colts." Nico Collins could not ask for a better matchup to begin his fourth season. Hopefully Richardson and the Colts can keep the game close so that Houston keeps the foot on the pedal with the passing attack. |
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| Tier 2 -- Slightly more risk, but probably gonna deliver a big Week 1 score |
WR14 - Ja'Marr Chase
WR15 - Cooper Kupp
WR16 - Marvin Harrison Jr.
WR17 - Chris Olave
WR18 - DJ Moore
WR19 - Malik Nabers
WR20 - Drake London
WR24 - DeVonta Smith
WR25 - Stefon Diggs
WR30 - Tank Dell |
| Tier 3 -- Offensive environment or matchup concerns keeping them out of Tier 2 |
WR21 - Michael Pittman
WR22 - Amari Cooper
WR23 - DK Metcalf
WR26 - Terry McLaurin
WR27 - Diontae Johnson
WR28 - Brandon Aiyuk
WR29 - George Pickens
WR31 - Tee Higgins
WR34 - Calvin Ridley
WR36 - Courtland Sutton |
| Tier 4 -- Super solid Week 1 projections (even if there's not quite as much blow-up game potential) |
WR32 - Chris Godwin
WR33 - Christian Kirk
WR35 - Joshua Palmer
WR45 - Jayden Reed
WR46 - Khalil Shakir
WR47 - Romeo Doubs |
| Tier 5 -- I have no idea what to expect from this group, but it could be fun! |
WR37 - Xavier Worthy
WR38 - Zay Flowers
WR39 - Keenan Allen
WR40 - Brian Thomas Jr.
WR41 - Keon Coleman
WR42 - Christian Watson
WR43 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR44 - Rashid Shaheed
WR48 - Rome Odunze
WR52 - Ladd McConkey
WR60 - Adonai Mitchell
WR64 - Marvin Mims |
| Tier 6 -- Desperation plays |
WR49 - DeAndre Hopkins
WR50 - Jameson Williams
WR51 - Jordan Addison
WR53 - Tyler Lockett
WR54 - Darnell Mooney
WR55 - Jakobi Meyers
WR56 - Gabe Davis
WR57 - Ja'Lynn Polk
WR58 - Brandin Cooks
WR59 - Demario Douglas
WR61 - Adam Thielen
WR62 - Michael Wilson
WR63 - Jalen McMillan
WR65 - Demarcus Robinson
WR66 - Jerry Jeudy
WR67 - Rashod Bateman
WR68 - Tyler Boyd
WR69 - Greg Dortch
WR70 - Darius Slayton |
| Tight Ends |
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| Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
TE1 - Sam LaPorta
TE2 - Trey McBride
TE3 - Travis Kelce
TE4 - Mark Andrews
TE5 - Dalton Kincaid
TE6 - Evan Engram |
| Week 1 with a massive implied point total vs. a susceptible Arizona defense sure feels like a coming-out party for Buffalo's new pass-game centerpiece, Dalton Kincaid. |
| Tier 2 -- Don't love the matchup/game set-up |
TE7 - Kyle Pitts
TE8 - George Kittle
TE9 - David Njoku
TE10 - Jake Ferguson |
| Tier 3 -- Wild cards! |
TE11 - Taysom Hill
TE12 - Brock Bowers |
| Tier 4 -- These guys are probably going to play a ton. I'm not sure what they'll do with their opportunities, but you can feel some level of confidence placing cheap bets on them in Week 1 |
TE13 - Colby Parkinson
TE14 - Dallas Goedert
TE15 - Tyler Conklin
TE16 - Luke Musgrave
TE17 - Zach Ertz
TE18 - Noah Fant (revenge game, please give us a big Noah Fant game!)
TE19 - Dalton Schultz
TE23 - Cade Otton
TE27 - Kylen Granson
TE28 - Dawson Knox |
| Tier 5 -- Playing time feels less clear |
TE20 - Pat Freiermuth
TE21 - Juwan Johnson
TE22 - Cole Kmet
TE24 - Jonnu Smith
TE25 - Chigoziem Okonkwo
TE26 - Tucker Kraft
TE29 - Gerald Everett
TE30 - Isaiah Likely
TE31 - Greg Dulcich
TE32 - Ben Sinnott
TE33 - Michael Mayer
TE34 - Mike Gesicki
TE35 - Ja'Tavion Sanders
TE36 - Theo Johnson
TE37 - Hayden Hurst
TE38 - Will Dissly
TE39 - Johnny Mundt
TE40 - Austin Hooper |
| I'll be in your inbox every weekday and every Sunday morning for the foreseeable future! NFL is back, baby! I am so grateful and excited to be able to deliver this newsletter to you as we navigate the 2024 season together. Thank you! This is going to be fun! |
| If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Dan and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! |
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