Dear This Week in Geopolitics Reader,

For over 20 years, I focused mainly on publishing accurate geopolitical forecasts, first at Stratfor and now at Geopolitical Futures. To my pleasant surprise, I have discovered that people want more than just to read our insights.

Many (perhaps you) enjoy the opportunity to see us explain our predictions in person. And one of my great pleasures is having the chance to talk with you over coffee, or in my case, a little slivovitz.

I invite you, then, to consider the future with me at our next conference, Rising and Falling Powers: Separating Signal from Noise, on October 25 in New York City.

With a strictly limited attendance of just 120 people, we will create a small, intimate space where we can imagine the future together.

Some of you may be investors or portfolio managers searching for the most promising opportunities in particular regions. Some of you may be businesspeople whose interests will be affected by coming changes. And some of you may simply be keen analysts of the world, seeking the pleasure of finding things out.

Before I go any further, I am happy to offer you a first-tier ticket for the conference. I must advise, however, that only a few tickets remain—the response thus far to Rising and Falling Powers has been enormously gratifying. I look forward to welcoming every attendee to the Yale Club for what will be an exhilarating event.

If you’re interested in joining us, you can secure your place here.

Separating Signal from Noise

Accurate forecasting means imagining possibilities that will earn you ridicule from most. For instance: Few people in 1900 could have predicted that within 50 years, two world wars would end the European Age and catapult the US to global power. Even fewer would have had the courage to make that prediction.

Our schedule at Rising and Falling Powers: Separating Signal from Noise is built around three of GPF’s most important—and contrarian—forecasts. The order of the sessions I lay out today may change, but I can promise that each session will feature a GPF analyst and one or two other carefully picked speakers.

Each speaker will bring on-the-ground knowledge, a breadth of experience, and most importantly, candor to the table. They are very far removed from the usual conference circuit.

In addition, there will be ample time for back and forth, and question and answer. And in between each session, you will be able to talk to me, my team, and the speakers in an informal setting.

The Future of North America

In the elegant, storied surrounds of the Yale Club, we will begin our day of conference deliberations with breakfast, a brief welcome address, and my keynote speech (the details of which I am keeping under wraps for now).

Then we move to the first of our panel discussions, Rising Heavyweights in North America. There are many questions here for us to consider, the future of NAFTA and US-Mexico relations chief among them.

Much of our discussion will focus on trade and immigration issues. To help us do this, we have a special guest, original NAFTA negotiator Luis de la Calle. Expect no mercy as he discusses the current renegotiations.

But the larger focus will be on the country we think is the most promising in the region: Mexico. I understand that is not a popular view. Pick up a newspaper and what do you read about Mexico? Awful stories about cartel violence or President Trump’s promises to build a border wall.Â

Come to our conference and you’ll get a much different perspective. Mexico still has a long way to go and challenges to overcome, but we believe it will rise. And the many attractive opportunities there for investors and businesses will only proliferate in coming years.Â

Uncovering Opportunities in East Asia

From there we will move to the region currently dominating world headlines with our panel, Driving Forces in East Asia.

Kim Jong Un has proved every bit as unpredictable and calculating as his predecessors, and the US stands on the brink of yet another conflict in Asia.

We will, of course, touch on the North Korea situation. But this panel, which includes Gavekal Research co-founder Louis Gave and Santen Inc. CEO Masahiro Inoue, is not interested in today’s noise. It is interested in tomorrow’s reality.

Our discussion will shine a light on the problems standing in the way of China ultimately becoming a global power, the role of the US in East Asia, and the key flashpoints in the region.

As you may have guessed from the welcome appearance of Louis Gave on the panel, we will dedicate time to look at the region through the investment lens, seeking out its centers of future growth and opportunities. To corrupt the phrase of John Babson Lane Soule, go east, investors, go east.

Emerging Markets Come of Age

For our final panel, we go to the world’s geopolitical heartland in Power Shifts in Eastern Europe.

Russia is a house of cards with a struggling economy and an awful demographic outlook. But it will not fade quietly, and the US is already moving to block Russian actions in Eastern Europe.

Meanwhile, Germany is old, dependent on exports, and contemplating its future within a crumbling EU.

But with great volatility comes great opportunity. When Germany and Russia are weak, Eastern Europe rises.

We will discuss the dynamism of Eastern Europe and which places offer the best opportunities for investors. There are few better placed to discuss this than George Cristian Maior, Romania’s current ambassador to the US and formerly, Director of the Romanian Intelligence Service. We will all benefit from the wisdom accrued during his truly exceptional career, which also included a stint as State Secretary and head of the Department for Euro-Atlantic Integration and Defense Policy within the Ministry of National Defense. There, he coordinated the strategic and military dimension of Romania’s NATO accession process.
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Also sharing his insights on this panel will be Zbigniew Pisarski. As well as being the president of the prestigious Casimir Pulaski Foundation, he is also an advisor to Poland’s military brass, and advisor to the President of Poland on the Strategic Review of National Security.

Join Me to Learn What Comes Next

You may not agree with the predictions you’ll hear at the conference. And don’t expect the speakers to agree with each other. But that friction will make for a more fruitful and exciting conference, both on and off stage.

I can promise you will walk away with much more to think about than when you arrived, and a much keener sense of what is and isn’t important in the world. And you will have forged many new and valuable connections with fellow attendees, speakers, and the GPF team.

That is one of the most significant aspects of this conference. There are few experiences as energizing as being in a small group of like-minded people, discussing big ideas and perhaps big plans.

Before I go, my staff have told me to remind you again that there are only a few first-tier, discounted tickets remaining. Once they are gone, there will be a small number of places made available at a higher rate.

The space is quickly filling up, as there will only be 120 people in total at the conference. I truly hope you will be one of them.

Sincerely,

George Friedman