| | | | Wednesday, July 3, 2024 | | Is there any precedent for what we're seeing from Luis Gil right now? | | Gil went from a long shot to even make the Yankees rotation this spring to serving as a serviceable, but pretty mediocre pitcher in April, and then turned in one of the best months by a pitcher we've seen in a long time in May. And now, entering July, after yet another frustrating performance Tuesday night, that looks like a total fluke. | | Gil's May was spectacular. Over six starts, he posted a 0.70 ERA with 44 strikeouts, making him the 36th pitcher over the past 20 seasons to post an ERA of 1.00 or lower in a month with at least 35 innings pitched, and there aren't many flukes on that list. Sure, you've got pretty unremarkable guys like Martin Perez, Shelby Miller , and late-career Kenny Rogers on the list, but none of them came close to Gil's strikeout numbers in their respective stretches. | | Narrowing the list down to guys who had at least a strikeout per inning in the month we're talking about, it mostly looks like a list of the best pitchers of the past 20 years: | | Clayton Kershaw (June, 2014; May, 2016)CC Sabathia (July, 2011) Jack Flaherty (August, 2019; Sept/Oct, 2019)Justin Verlander (May, 2018)Félix Hernández (August, 2010) Corey Kluber (Sept/Oct, 2017)R.A. Dickey (June, 2012)Luis Gil (May, 2024)Justin Verlander (June, 2011)Zac Gallen (August, 2022) Chris Carpenter (June, 2005)Jered Weaver (April/March, 2011)Jake Arrieta (August, 2015; Sept/Oct, 2015; June, 2014) | | | | Among that list, only Gil, Flaherty, Gallen, and Weaver didn't win a Cy Young award, and only Gil and Flaherty didn't have at least two top-five Cy Young finishes. Which is to say, there isn't much recent history of a month as good as Gil from a player who wasn't at least a must-start Fantasy option. And Gil definitely doesn't look like that right now. | | After allowing four runs over four innings Tuesday against the Reds, Gil now has a 6.84 ERA over his past six starts, and his control has especially fallen apart over the past four, with 13 walks to 12 strikeouts in 14.2 innings of work. And that's the primary concern here, as Gil had an 18% walk rate in April, and a 14% rate during his minor-league career, to boot; in May, it was just 8.5%. | | It's hard to fake what Gil did in May, and it speaks to his talent that he was able to put a month like that together. But it's starting to look like a massive outlier for his career, and I'm not sure I want to bet on him getting back to that level. The Yankees are going to have to find ways to limit Gil's innings – he's already thrown more innings this season than any season since 2021 – and this slump might be just the excuse they need to pull back on him. | | At the very least, they probably aren't going to have an especially long leash with him moving forward. Even if the Yankees haven't lost faith in him – and, it bears mentioning that there's no reason to believe they have – they're going to need to limit his innings if they want to have him available for the postseason. This could mean either a looming break or a move to the bullpen to keep his arm fresh, and either would have a negative impact on Gil's value moving forward unless he worked into the mix for the ninth inning alongside (or in place of) a scuffling Clay Holmes. | | I'm not ready to drop Gil just yet, but if you're wondering if you missed your sell-high window with him … uh, yeah. You did! I still think there's a pretty good chance Gil is going to have a stretch of Fantasy-relevant performances again, but I moved him way down in my rankings after this showing, into the same range of talented, but untrustworthy pitchers like Carlos Rodon, Kevin Gausman, and Nick Pivetta. | | And there's plenty more room for him to fall from there. | | Here's what else you need to know about from Tuesday's action, beginning with the top waiver-wire targets: | | | | Wednesday's top waiver targets | | | | Nate Lowe, 1B, Rangers (55%) – I've been hesitant to give up on Lowe all season, so of course, the day I finally, officially moved him out of my top-200 overall rankings, he goes off for two homers. That brings his total for the season to just six, and his underlying numbers don't exactly suggest he's been unlucky to earn those results – his expected slugging percentage entering play Tuesday was just .342, and he had a career-worst barrel rate to go along with it. But if this is the start of him figuring it out, there's still the potential for a ton of counting stats in a Rangers lineup I expect much better things from in the second half. | | Daniel Schneemann, OF, Guardians (7%) – The Guardians keep pulling these guys out of nowhere, and Schneeman continues to perform. He hit his third homer Tuesday in just 73 plate appearances, and his OPS is now up to .864. He's not a full-time player, typically sitting against lefties, but Schneeman has been productive enough to be worth a pickup in deeper, daily-lineup leagues, especially if he can tap into some of the speed he showed in the minors. | | Hayden Birdsong, SP, Giants (12%) – Birdsong hasn't exactly lit the world on fire in his first two MLB starts, but Tuesday's against the Braves was a bit better, with five strikeouts and two walks over five innings, allowing two runs. His fastball looks like a pretty good pitch, thanks to consistent high-90s velocity, but he also got his slider and changeup working, generating seven combined whiffs on 21 swings with them. If he can generate consistent swinging strikes with his secondaries, Birdsong is going to be pretty useful, and he's worth a look in deeper leagues. | | | | Davidjohn Herz, SP, Nationals (27%) – Hertz keeps flashing such tantalizing upside. Back in mid-June, he had a 13-strikeout, zero-walk game, and then he had 10 strikeouts with zero walks Tuesday against the Mets, joining Tyler Glasnow, Bailey Ober, Zac Gallen, and Garrett Crochet as the only pitchers with at least 10 strikeouts and zero walks in multiple starts this season. That's hardly proof that Herz is a must-start Fantasy option – Dan Dunning also pulled off the trick on two separate occasions last season – but it's pretty good company to be in. Even if the rest of his starts have, for the most part, been pretty bad. | | Michael Mercado, SP, Phillies (3%) – Mercado wasn't overwhelming in his first MLB start, but he was pretty good, striking out four while walking two over five one-run innings. He generated four swinging strikes with his 95.3 mph four-seamer, and five more on his high-80s cutter, while limiting hard contact with all three of his pitches. Mercado is a bit of an older prospect, and one who hasn't really found much success in the minors outside of his first 47.1 innings this season, so I'd probably leave him for NL-only leagues right now. | | News and Notes | | Royce Lewis was removed Tuesday due to left groin tightness, and after the game, he said he's not optimistic about avoiding the IL. Lewis did make it sound like he doesn't think the injury is too serious, but given his track record, it seems likely the Twins will take the safe route and give Lewis extra time to make sure he's fully healed. It's another injury for a guy who has looked like an absolute superstar on the field, but it also makes it impossible to know how to value him for Fantasy. You'll never get anything close to what he's worth in a trade, so I think you just have to keep Lewis stashed. Again. | | Jack Flaherty will have his next start pushed back to next week after receiving a second pain-killing injection in his back. This has been an obvious issue for a while for Flaherty, who has mostly managed to gut through it without impacting his performance too much. I'm hoping the extra time off here and with the upcoming All-Star break can get Flaherty back to full strength, because he has shown top-24 upside when healthy. | | Corey Seager has missed two straight after getting hit by a pitch on his left wrist Saturday. An MRI and X-rays both came back negative, so hopefully it isn't too long before we see him back. | | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was back in the lineup Tuesday after sitting out Monday with discomfort in his right hand. | | David Bednar has progressed to throwing from 120 feet and should soon resume mound work. He's probably at least a few weeks away, but maybe he'll be back around the break. | | Shane Baz was scratched from his start at Triple-A Tuesday in order to be available as a depth option in case the Rays play a doubleheader this week. | | Apparently there's some bad weather in KC this week, so Baz could get called on for a spot start. Whether he would stick around after that remains to be seen, but Baz is arguably the top pitching prospect to stash right now, so he's worth a roster spot either way. | | Julio Rodriguez was dropped down to seventh in the Mariners' lineup after going 2-29 over his last seven games before Tuesday. I did a deep dive into his struggles Tuesday for CBSSports.com if you want to check that out here. | | Robbie Ray will make his next rehab start at Triple-A on Thursday. His last start came Friday at Single-A, and he has a 2.77 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 21 K over 13 IP on his rehab assignment so far. Ray is 43% rostered and is a decent stash, though not a high priority for me. | | Jordan Montgomery was placed on the 15-day IL with right knee inflammation, retroactive to June 29. | | Both Gabriel Moreno and Alek Thomas were reinstated from the IL. | | Michael Harris could begin running soon. He's two and a half weeks removed from suffering a Grade 2 left hamstring strain and will probably need at least that long before he is able to return. | | Clayton Kershaw has started throwing again after experiencing shoulder soreness last week. He's a lower-priority stash than Ray for me. | | J.D. Martinez was scratched from the lineup Tuesday due to left ankle soreness. Apparently, he bought the wrong cleats on Amazon and was dealing with some soreness from that. I'm not joking. | | David Hamilton was out of the lineup Tuesday and has now sat out four of the past six games. Can't steal bases if you aren't in the lineup! | | Harrison Bader was removed from Tuesday's game after hitting his head/neck on the outfield wall trying to make a catch in the third inning. | | Ryan Weathers will be re-evaluated in 1-2 weeks in hopes of being cleared to begin a throwing program at that time. | | Mitch Garver was out of the lineup Tuesday after getting hit by a pitch on his wrist Sunday. | | Isiah Kiner-Falefa was placed on the IL with a left knee sprain. | | Casey Mize will land on the IL at some point this week due to a left hamstring strain. | | Tim Anderson was designated for assignment and Xavier Edwards was recalled from Triple-A. Edwards was hitting .330 with five steals in 26 games at Triple-A this year, but he's just an NL-only candidate for now. | | Two deep league pitchers to watch for the second half: | | Ian Anderson threw three scoreless innings in a rehab start at Single-A on Sunday. He's expected to make at least two more rehab appearances before becoming an option for Atlanta's rotation in the second half. At 3% rostered, he could be worth stashing in some deeper leagues. | | Tyler Mahle began a rehab assignment at Triple-A on Tuesday. He is 5% rostered and I probably have more confidence in him than Anderson to make an impact at some point, though he isn't a high-priority stash, either. | | Tuesday's standouts | | George Kirby , Mariners vs. BAL: 6.1 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – Kirby threw his curveball more than usual in this start, mostly at the expense of his sinker … and he mostly looked like the same guy he always does. To be clear, that's an excellent pitcher because that is what Kirby is. But it's just to say that I don't think there's really much reason to think there's some combination of pitches that is going to unlock another level for Kirby – his strikeout rate is, ironically, held back by how many strikes he throws, which leads to early-count weak contact and not as many whiffs as he might have if he threw a few more waste pitches. That's not a knock on Kirby, it's just the reality of who he is. | | Dylan Cease, Padres @TEX: 3.2 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – I continue to mostly be unconcerned about Cease, because his struggles of late have mostly come because of struggles on balls in play, rather than, well, bases on balls. Tuesday, Cease had five six balls with an expected batting average of at least .470, and all six of them went for hits, including five going for extra bases. It's hard to chalk that up to bad luck, but with Cease having just one start of more than three walks all season, I continue to mostly have faith. When things go bad for him, it tends to be because he can't find the strike zone, and that hasn't really been the issue so far this season. | | Grayson Rodriguez, Orioles @SEA: 6.1 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 8 K – Rodriguez has been pretty good since coming back from the IL, sporting a 3.29 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 60 strikeouts in 54.2 innings over the past nine starts. It's not quite the ace-level production we were hoping for from Rodriguez, and I'm not quite sure what's holding him back – he's got an arsenal full of swing-and-miss pitches, but his best whiff pitch (his slider) has also been his worst in terms of results on contact. Until he fixes that, this profile might remain just a tad disappointing, though still quite good. | | Mitch Keller, Pirates vs. Cardinals : 5 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 5 K – I think you're going to totally exhaust yourself trying to chase the ups and downs of Keller's seasons, and your best bet is just to buy him at face value. What that means is, as long as you expect a mid-3.00s ERA and decent strikeout numbers at the end of the season, you'll probably be pretty happy with Keller on your team. There will be stretches – like the one he just finished with a 1.85 ERA over nine starts – when he looks absolutely dominant, and there will be others where he looks unplayable. And friends, that's what your bench is for. | | Kutter Crawford, Red Sox @MIA: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K – This was a much-needed bounceback for Crawford, who was increasingly looking like a flash in the pan after his incredible April. The nice thing about Crawford is that, even when he was struggling in May and June, he was still pitching consistently deep into games, throwing at least six innings in seven of his past 10 starts despite a 4.85 ERA in that span. That's going to leave you with a decent chance for a win, a quality start, and solid strikeout totals even when he isn't at his best. That strikes me as a must-roster pitcher, if not a must-start one. | | Bobby Miller, Dodgers vs. ARI: 5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 4 K – The results weren't terrible here, and I suppose Miller deserves some credit for finding a way to pitch well enough despite not being terribly sharp. But the point here is that Miller just doesn't look like himself since coming back from the shoulder injury, and it's not exactly getting better – his velocity was down 1-1.5 mph pretty much across the board, and it wasn't like he traded velo for command. I'm not giving up on Miller in the long run, but I'm certainly not viewing him as a must-start pitcher right now, either. | | Reynaldo Lopez, Braves vs. SF: 4.1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 6 K – This is another one where it's a testament to Lopez that he managed to avoid too much damage in this one, but man, I just really don't have any faith in this being sustainable. Look, he's at the midway point in the season with a 1.83 ERA, so he's obviously doing something right. But Lopez also has a 3.98 xERA for the season, and I'd bet his actual ERA is a lot closer to that the rest of the way. If I didn't need pitching help right now, I'd certainly be looking to trade Lopez for someone like Bobby Miller. | | Nathan Eovaldi , Rangers vs. SD: 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K – At the end of his seasons, Eovaldi tends to look like a remarkably consistent pitcher: His ERA has been between 3.63 and 3.87 in each of the previous four seasons. The path there is usually pretty rocky, and I think it's reasonable to assume that, at some point, Eovaldi is going to run out of gas and hit some rough patches. It happens every year, and I don't see much reason to assume it will be different this year. Watch the velocity – when it starts to flag, that tends to be when Eovaldi gets hit hard. As long as he's averaging around 96 mph with his fastball, he should be fine. | | Spencer Arrighetti, Astros @TOR: 4 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 5 K – It's been one step forward followed by several stumbles back all season for Arrighetti, who followed up a dominant start the last time out with this. He's a talented young pitcher with good stuff, but when he isn't commanding well, he's been kind of hopeless; and he hasn't commanded well for most of the season. | | | | | | | | USL | | Golazo Network | Watch two USL matchups tonight on CBS Sports Network, starting with Richmond Kickers vs. Forward Madison FC at 8 PM ET and followed by Sacramento Republic FC vs. Las Vegas Lights FC TONIGHT.
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