Tiny Increase Ends Three-Month Pending Sales Drought

Pending home sales pulled out of a three-month spiral in June but with only a fractional increase from May. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said its Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) ticked up 0.3 percent thanks to increased activity in the Northeast and Midwest. When it posted its last increase in February, the PHSI stood at 83.2. In June the level was 76.8. The index has fallen 15.6 percent since May 2022. The PHSI, a leading indicator for the housing sector, is based on contracts signed to purchase existing homes. Those sales are typically finalized within one or two months. The PHSI was benchmarked at 100 in 2001, a number equal to the average level of contract activity during that year. The incremental increase led NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun to strike a positive note. “The recovery has not taken place, but the housing recession is over,” he said. “The presence of multiple offers implies that housing demand is not being satisfied due to lack of supply. Homebuilders are ramping up production and hiring workers.” Yun expects the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to average 6.5 percent this year and 6.0 percent in 2024. He added, “With consumer price inflation coming close to the Federal Reserve’s desired conditions, mortgage rates look to have topped out. Given the ongoing job additions, any meaningful decline in mortgage rates could lead to a rush of buyers later in the year and into the next.” That expectation is reflected in a forecast of a 12.9 percent decline in existing home sales in 2023, to 4.38 million, but a 15.5 percent rebound to 5.06 million units next year. Compared to last year, national median existing-home prices will remain steady – declining 0.4 percent, to $384,900, before rebounding by 2.6 percent, to $395,000 in 2024. The West – the country’s most expensive region – will see reduced prices while the more affordable Midwest region is likely to see a small, positive increase. Housing starts will drop to 1.47 million units (-5.3 percent) from 2022 to 2023, before increasing 5.4 percent to 1.55 million in 2024.

July 27, 2023 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Housing News Tiny Increase Ends Three-Month Pending Sales Drought Pending home sales pulled out of a three-month spiral in June but with only a fractional increase from May. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said its Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) ticked up 0.3 percent thanks to increased activity in the... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Surge Higher, But Not Because of Yesterday's Fed Rate Hike The Fed hiked its policy rate yesterday and now today, mortgage rates jumped quite a bit higher. While there are already headlines drawing a connection between these two events, they are actually unrelated. As we discussed yesterday, the ... (read more) MBS Commentary What Was That About Data Dependence? Yesterday's closing headline and most condensed recap of Powell's press conference was simply: "data dependence continues." Indeed it does! This morning's economic data came out resoundingly stronger with all four reports beating forecast... (read more) Rob Chrisman Hedging, Productivity, POS, Audit and Tax Products; Non-Agency News; STRATMOR on Sales Costs; GDP Solid “I’m trying to organize a hide and seek tournament, but good players are really hard to find.” Good LOs (trustworthy, loyal, helpful, friendly, courteous, kind, obedient, cheerful, thrifty, brave, clean, and reverent… do I have that right?) can be ha... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.12% +0.17% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.12% +0.17 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.45% +0.10 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.80% +0.18 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.10% +0.09 0.00 5/1 ARM 7.04% +0.09 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.82% +0.22 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 7/27 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.45% +0.10% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.81% +0.03 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.05 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/27 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.87% +0.29 0.66 15 Yr. Fixed 6.36% -0.06 0.72 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.89% -0.15 0.64 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/19 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 98.95 -0.56 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 98.95 -0.56 UMBS 6.0 100.36 -0.42 GNMA 5.5 99.09 -0.52 GNMA 6.0 100.30 -0.33 Pricing as of: 7/27 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.0000 +0.1270 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.926 +0.076 5 YR Treasury 4.232 +0.116 7 YR Treasury 4.136 +0.127 10 YR Treasury 4.000 +0.127 30 YR Treasury 4.041 +0.097 Pricing as of: 7/27 5:31PM EST Latest Video Former Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart: A rate cut in May '24 is wish... June pending home sales beat expectations as Midwest sees strong pricing GDP grew at a 2.4% pace in the second quarter, topping expectations despite... Goldman Sachs' Jan Hatzius: A November rate hike is possible but don't expe... Around the Web Marketwatch Former Fed official Clarida backs another interest-rate hike this year Nikkei BOJ to discuss yield curve control tweak to allow rates over 0.5% Marketwatch Jobless claims drop to the lowest level since February Calculated Risk Blog Fannie and Freddie: Single-Family Mortgage Delinquency Rate Declined, Multi-Family Increased in June Eye on Housing Measured Hawkishness: The Fed Hikes in July Marketwatch Durable goods climb 4.7% on Boeing contracts. Details of report not quite as strong. Eye on Housing More New Homes Improve Expectations of Housing Availability CNBC GDP grew at a 2.4% pace in the second quarter, topping expectations despite recession calls Calculated Risk Blog Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 221,000 CNBC European Central Bank raises rates by 25 basis points, says inflation set to remain 'too high for too long' CNBC Treasury yields inch higher as investors absorb Fed rate hike, Powell comments Calculated Risk Blog BEA: Real GDP increased at 2.4% Annualized Rate in Q2 CNBC CNBC Daily Open: Powells conference had something for bulls and bears

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