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| Tuesday, July 9, 2024 |
| It's Titans Day! |
| Before diving into Fantasy analysis for each team, I'll present a brief overview containing their offensive ranks in my base line team projections as well as any notable coaching or offensive line changes. |
| Projected Offensive Plays – (31st) |
| Projected Passing TDs – 24.1 (21st) |
| Projected Rushing TDs – 16.4 (27th) |
| Notable coaching changes: |
| Replaced Mike Vrabel with Brian Callahan at head coachHired Nick Holtz as offensive coordinatorHired Dennard Wilson as defensive coordinator |
| Holtz was the passing game coordinator for the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2023, so he worked with Calvin Ridley last season. Wilson spent 2023 with the Baltimore Ravens as defensive backs coach. |
| Callahan has served as Joe Burrow's offensive coordinator for each of the past four seasons. He also was part of Zac Taylor's inaugural season for a 2-14 Andy Dalton-led Cincinnati Bengals season before Burrow arrived. |
| That 2019 season provides us with some very valuable information -- even though it came in extreme circumstances with a team that only won two games -- it's our only look at a Callahan offense that wasn't catering to what Burrow wants. I dug into the micro-level trends, and a lot of the same tendencies from the Burrow era showed up. The Bengals operated out of the shotgun on over two-thirds of plays, whether the game was close or not. In neutral situations (score within six points), the 2019 Cincy team dropped back to pass 62.9% of the time. That would have ranked third behind only the Commanders and Chiefs in 2023. The 2019 Bengals also did not use much pre-snap motion. I had wondered if that was just a product of Burrow's preferences, but that's how the offense worked before Burrow got there. Of course, Callahan could adapt now that he's a head coach and has five more years of experience. |
| Everything from Callahan's tenure in Cincinnati suggests that the Titans will pass a ton in all situations and use a ton of three-receiver sets. I'd guess that Tennessee's pre-snap motion usage will rank below the league average, and we likely won't see nearly as much under center snaps or play action reps as Levis used as a rookie. |
| Levis ranked 18th among 33 qualified passers with a 100.8 passer rating on play action dropbacks, compared to 28th with a 77.6 rating without play action. He was also better on non-shotgun dropbacks. I'm not sure how well he'll adapt if Callahan installs a straight dropback playbook that operates out of the gun almost 80% of the time. At Kentucky, Levis was pronouncedly better when not using shotgun. He was also much better on play action dropbacks. On non-play action Kentucky dropbacks, Levis produced just a 24-17 touchdown-interception ratio. |
| Notable offensive line changes |
| Let center Aaron Brewer walk in free agencySigned center Lloyd CushenberrySigned guard Saahdiq CharlesReleased tackle Andre DillardDrafted left tackle JC Latham seventh overall |
| Cushenberry presents an upgrade at the center spot, and he joins an offensive line that has two top-12 overall selections from the past two drafts on the left side. The right side of the line presents serious question marks, though. Dillon Radunz was a second-round selection by the Titans in 2021 who struggled to find the field in his first two seasons and spent time at every spot but center during the 2023 season. He locked down the right tackle spot from Week 12 on and was Tennessee's best PFF-graded pass blocker from that point on. Given his impressive work to close the season and the number of dropbacks that the Titans seem intent on calling in 2024, I'd expect Radunz's pass-blocking to earn him the starting tackle gig, leaving Daniel Brunskill or Saahdiq Charles to start at right guard. Brunskill is a former UDFA who made a career for himself as a competent pass blocker and passable run blocker, starting multiple seasons in San Francisco. Charles earned a PFF grade of 55.5 in 2023 and has topped out with just a 67.6 grade as his single-season high through four years as a pro. |
| Overall, this line should be much improved from the 2023 version. There are question marks, though. Latham did not start on the left side in college, so his transition to primary pass-protecting duties for Levis could make or break things for this offense. Tennessee's 2022 Round 1 investment, Peter Skoronski earned a PFF grade of just 61.6 as a rookie. The Titans will need much more from him in Year 2. |
| I think this line might be effective. The Titans emphasized pass blocking, which is much needed with Levis' propensity for holding the ball as long as possible. Tennessee replaced a run-blocking specialist at center with a pass-blocker. Latham was one of the nation's best pass-blocking tackles over his final two seasons at Alabama. Skoronski struggled in 2023 but was graded as the single-best pass blocker in the nation during his final season at Northwestern. |
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| Can Will Levis be the guy? |
| Below, you'll find the reason I placed so much emphasis on this team's pass blocking. |
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| The eye-popping sack numbers followed Levis to the pros. As a rookie, Levis had the seventh-worst pressure to sack rate. For what it's worth, though, his rate wasn't as bad as teammate Ryan Tannehill's! No QB had a higher rate than Tannehill in 2023. |
| Derrik Klassen's Reception Perception profile on Levis painted a pretty optimistic picture while not shying away from the problem Levis creates by taking so many sacks. It's worth a read to complement what you'll read here. I find myself pretty concerned about Levis heading into 2024. |
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| As a rookie, Levis led the NFL with a 10.5-yard average depth of target. The league average was 7.7 yards, and the next-highest rate was 9.0. Levis was chucking the ball downfield at an unprecedented clip. |
| Part of that was offensive design-based. Levis' aDOT on shotgun dropbacks was 12.7 yards. That rate will likely come down with Callahan calling plays. At Kentucky, Levis posted an aDOT of 9.0 in 2021 and 8.1 in 2022. He likes to push the ball down the field, no doubt. But I do believe that we'll see a more balanced approach under Callahan. |
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| Another area where Callahan may unlock Levis is attacking over the middle of the field. He certainly has the arm talent to make tight window throws over the middle, but we didn't see Levis attack that area of the field with much frequency or success as a rookie. Only 58 of 255 attempts went to the middle of the field, according to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, and only six of 31 qualified passers had a worse rating when attacking the middle of the field. Levis had the highest turnover worthy throw rate (10.3%) and second-highest off-target rate (24.1%) when targeting the middle of the field. |
| Who is this offense's WR1? |
| Callahan used Tyler Boyd often to attack the middle area of the field in Cincinnati, and we could see him, Chigoziem Okonkwo, and Tyjae Spears create more easy looks for Levis. When attacking down the field, though, this offense will likely focus on perimeter threats in Calvin Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins. Callahan said Ridley's role will be "very similar" to Ja'Marr Chase's in Cincinnati, and that did not involve much middle of the field usage. Tee Higgins actually produced more over the middle than Chase did. |
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| There's no way around it, Hopkins looked better than Ridley in 2023. Could that change in Ridley's second season removed from his 2022 suspension? Sure. What we have seen most-recently is Hopkins clearly appear to be the better of the two receivers. |
| 2023 PFF receiving grade |
82.3 -- Hopkins (19th at WR)
72.2 -- Ridley (45th) |
| ESPN Open Score |
82 -- Hopkins (5th)
59 -- Ridley (49th) |
| 2023 yard per route run rate |
2.09 -- Hopkins (18th)
1.58 -- Ridley (43rd) |
| Both of these receivers were heavily emphasized by their offensive play-callers in 2023. Hopkins ranked 10th with a 34.4% first-read target rate, while Ridley led the Jags with a 25.1% rate. On plays where the QB did not target the first read, Hopkins ranked 47th among 86 qualifiers in yards per target. Ridley ranked 67th. Neither of these receivers were producing much outside of plays that intentionally put the ball in their hands. |
| I'm not sure which receiver will demand a higher first-read target rate in 2024, but I do feel pretty confident that Hopkins is not going to post another top-10 rate. The presence of Ridley will almost certainly hurt Hopkins' per-route efficiency. |
| A move to less play action passing may also hurt Hopkins' efficiency. In 2023, the league average yard per route run rate for wide receivers on play action passes was 2.18, up from 1.49 on non-play action passes. Hopkins averaged 3.09 yards per route run on play action routes, up from 1.73 without play action. |
| If the Titans drastically increase the overall passing volume numbers, it may be enough to offset any dip in efficiency. Purely from a player evaluation standpoint, what we have seen recently from Hopkins suggests that he can still be a productive player. I definitely would not assume that we can extrapolate his 2023 per-route data over to a 2024 projection, though. |
| At the right price, I'm still in on either of these receivers. I've drafted a decent amount of Hopkins, even though I'm a bit concerned about a decrease in play action usage and fewer first-read targets. I have not ended up with Ridley much, as my projections actually do barely favor Hopkins straight-up and Ridley is almost always selected ahead of him in Fantasy drafts. |
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| Tony Pollard or Tyjae Spears for Fantasy? |
| From a schematic standpoint, this Callahan offense feels well-suited for both backs and may just be a perfect fit for Spears. |
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| This excerpt was from a previous FFT newsletter, "In The Lab: Rush Scheme Data Deep Dive." If you missed that one, you can find it on SportsLine! |
| *Editor's note: This is not yet available on Sportsline, but will be live on the site shortly after. |
| I also wrote about Spears in a June newsletter post titled, "The Importance of RB Targets & Receptions." |
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| Spears was awesome as a pass-catcher as a rookie! Callahan has mentioned wanting to get both backs involved as receivers. |
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| Of the two, I have drafted way more Spears. He can be had after pick 100 and nearly three rounds behind Pollard on CBS, and the veteran is drafted ahead of Tennessee's second-year back on other sites as well. I'd much rather take the discount and bet on the younger player. Before we bury Pollard, though, I wanted to highlight his first- and second-half splits in 2023. He looked more like the guy who we fell in love with as the season rolled on. One more year revomved from major surgery, Pollard will have the juice back in 2024. |
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| Spears is my most-drafted Titan, followed by Hopkins. I love the price points on those two. Spears is actually my third-most drafted running back behind only Tyrone Tracy and Marshawn Lloyd. Beyond Spears and Hopkins, I've mixed in some Levis, Ridley, Okonkwo, and Pollard in early drafts. I have the Titans projected for the 15th-most pass attempts and 21st-most passing touchdowns, so I am somewhat intrigued by these passing game pieces. If the Titans can avoid sacks and sustain drives more effectively than I'm expecting, we could see Tennessee exceed both of those projections. I want to make sure to get some exposure to this offense just in case it does come together and deliver a top range of outcomes. |
| I would not invest an irresponsible amount into this offense, though. Levis' play style raises real concerns and may not gel with what Callahan wants to do offensively. I also am not convinced that the league's oldest wide receiver room is going to be effective. The offensive line has talent but also is unproven and lacks continuity. A lot of questionable variables will have to come together simultaneously for this to work. |
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