Hi Do, Here are Todd’s latest fun picks to take your financial skills to the next level... I don't like it when people agree with me.
It means my ideas are too mainstream to have any investment value. Those ideas are either wrong, or they're inconsequential.
Neither is good.
The key is to figure out how to be contrary - and right - at the same time.
You must be both to deliver investment value.
When I first told you a year ago that the investment epoch had changed requiring a completely different investment strategy to manage risk and harvest gains for the next 10+ years, I took a lonely position.
Nobody agreed with me, and it turned out that I was right.
If you didn't follow my advice then you lost money.
Fast forward 12 months and a trickle of experts are slowly catching up. The facts are getting clearer for everyone to see.
In this issue, I will share recent analysis from three highly-respected, high-profile economists who now agree with my epochal change call.
What's most compelling about this week's resources is not how these experts all agree with the premise that this is a structural change that will last 10-15 years. That part is obvious.
Instead, the amazing thing is how each of their reasoning is fundamentally different. They're looking at different indicators and coming to the same conclusion! The importance of this fact can't be understated because it increases the probability that the ultimate conclusion is correct.
In short, we aren't going back to "normal" regardless of any expected Fed pivots or other policy changes.
As Dorothy explained in the Wizard of Oz, "Todo, we're not in Kansas any more."
Unfortunately, most individual investors still haven't figured this out. Yeah, you're probably concerned right now, but if you haven't changed your investment behavior to align with this new epoch then you're still part of the crowd: Kathy Wood's Arkk funds are still receiving astounding inflows of new investment capital despite losing more than 70% in value (buy the dip speculation continues). FIRE and Boglehead community discussion remains anchored in dollar cost averaging and conventional asset diversification as the sole risk management discipline despite record losses from these strategies. They haven't figured out yet that they're approach won't work, and they need another solution. Heck, they're not even open to another solution. The market indexes have only declined by 20%-25% because of the pervasive underlying investor bullishness, thus price declines to date still have not fully discounted the structural inflation, expected risk, interest rate changes, and much more (as explained in the resources below). Only a tiny percentage of my 40,000 readers to this newsletter have adopted my recommended investment solution to better diversify at least a portion of your portfolio risk for the next 10+ years. In short, investors are frozen like a deer in headlights (with the same expected outcome). Can you relate? Is that you? Are you hoping the market will come back like it did in prior downturns and make you financially whole again? Are you expecting passive investing to work like it did for the past 40+ years? Is your thinking governed by the last 40 years of financial market behavior? Judging by results (often harsh, but always fair), 99% of my readers would have to answer "yes" to the above questions.
It's not your fault. You've been trained by 40+ years of market action and an endless barrage of media pundits telling you this stuff is true.
Yet, I told you a year ago that the investment epoch changed. What worked for the last 40+ years won't work for the next 10+ years.
It was a bold call, and every fact since that time has reinforced and accelerated the accuracy of that call. In fact, it's getting worse - not better.
I repeat... we've entered a structurally different economic regime now.
And the longer it develops, the more obvious it becomes to everyone.
And just like musical chairs, you don't want to be the last guy standing when the music stops playing.
I first warned you and gave you the proven investment solution a year ago. Those who took action have have already managed risk and greatly reduced losses. They've been handsomely rewarded for taking action.
What about you?
I'm intentionally writing this message super-aggressively because I'm trying to get under your skin and help you make the required changes before it's too late: What impact will this epochal change have on your financial security if your portfolio drops by 60% (or more!!) at some point in the next 10 years? How would your life plans be impacted by an investment epoch extending 10-15 years with no portfolio growth net of inflation? If you don't believe that this is where we're heading, then notice how the expert resources below all agree with my conclusion. And notice how their analyses all reinforce each other by using different financial indicators and economic fundamentals to determine the same expected outcome.
Are you still following the old investment playbook, or have you diversified at least a portion of your portfolio into my recommended risk management solution to protect your portfolio and profit through these trying times?
I can lead you to the water that will quench your thirst, but I can't make your drink. You have to be the one to take action. I hope today's resources help you make a smart investment decision... I normally wouldn't link to Nouriel Roubini. He's a media favorite because he makes intentionally bold statements to grab headlines. His nickname is Dr. Doom for good reason, but he's also a respected NYU professor with deep knowledge. As it turns out, a broken clock is right twice per day, and Nouriel's latest analysis is spot on. He gives you the rough framework for why this is structural (not cyclical) change. This is how you solve the investment return problem caused by this new economic regime. Russel is one of the few market strategists that correctly aligned with rising markets for the past few decades before correctly changing his outlook two years ago to the new epoch of inflation and financial repression. Read this interview to understand why the change he sees is structural, not cyclical. Notice how his reasons for this epochal change are different from the other two analysts featured today. That's super-important because each analysis is compatible (not contradictory), so it's reinforcing the expected outcome making it far more likely. I've shared extensive research during the past few months proving how this is the most effective investment strategy to reliably manage risk and produce profits in this environment. Now Comes The Hard Part - John Hussman interviewed on the No Bull Podcast John Hussman is a Stanford trained Ph.D. economist and runs the Hussman Funds. Yes, his performance during the prior bull market sucked, earning him the perma-bear moniker. But also notice how his performance since COVID has done well showing his strategy is now in alignment with market action. Finally, notice how John's conclusion that we're facing a structural change lasting 10-15 years is consistent with the other two resources this week; yet, his reasons and analysis are fundamentally different. I can't overemphasize this point. They're all right, but for different reasons. My free education program showing you how to manage risk and pursue positive returns net of inflation is included without charge when you subscribe to Allocate Smartly here. These tactical asset allocation models have worked brilliantly this year saving my clients retirements, and they're fully proven as the best strategy for this economic environment by independent academic research. Learn more here.
Onward and upward!
Todd Tresidder
Take Action Now So You Can Grow Your Wealth During Epochal Change: This investment software solution includes two of Todd's top investment systems. You'll learn the smart, proven way to manage portfolio risk during epochal change. Once you understand it, you'll wonder why you tolerated the unmanaged risk in your old "buy and hold" investment strategy. My Expectancy Wealth Planning group coaching program shows you how to maximize the expected growth of your wealth in every market condition regardless of epochal change. My students were prospering during the good times, and they're still prospering during this adversity. Join this smart community of active wealth builders to secure your financial future. |
