Too much data

Wall Street traders trying to front run the Federal Reserve should be happy this week is finally over. Having pulled money out of credit and crypto as well as stocks when everyone went sideways over sticky inflation, new data landed that arguably reaffirms the central bank’s economic strategy. So on Friday, bears took it in the teeth as the S&P 500 and Treasuries notched their first in-tandem weekly gain in a month, thanks largely to softer US employment data. Financial markets these days find themselves in a netherworld of divergent economic reports, and the players trying to surf them to profit are getting drenched over and over again. On Tuesday, a broad gauge of US labor costs rose by the most in a year, sending yields on two-year Treasuries above 5%. Three days later, a Labor Department report showed the smallest increase in wages since 2021, sending yields back down. Recent reports suggest retail sales are surging along with slowing gross domestic product. Industrial production has been rising while manufacturing has been easing. Jobless claims are holding steady—yet hiring has ticked down. Exhausted? We are. —David E. Rovella

Data watchers can finally turn the page on a troubling—but misleading— first-quarter of inflation and labor-market data, Jonathan Levin writes in Bloomberg Opinion. The nonfarm payrolls report on Friday marked the first major macro data dump for the month of April, and it suggested that the US economy is still on its trajectory of rebalancing labor markets, moderating wage growth and cooling inflation.

After Amgen Chief Executive Officer Robert Bradway said he was “very encouraged” by early results of an experimental obesity shot, the stock on Friday leapt 16%, its biggest gain since 2009. That’s despite no new data being released on the drug—which is in mid-stage trials—and before the approval process has even begun. There is, in other words, a lot of attention being paid out there to what’s coming next in the immensely profitable space. So here are the obesity drugs in the pipeline vying to knock Ozempic and Zepbound aside.

A few days ago, BlackRock sent an unusual message to thousands of clients. “Your fund is under attack,” the headline screamed. The attacker? Boaz Weinstein, the sharp-elbowed Wall Street money manager who says price distortions in funds run by BlackRock and others are cheating investors out of billions of dollars—and they need to be eliminated. This has turned into something of a crusade for Weinstein. Last month, his hedge fund, Saba Capital Management, launched a frenetic bid to have investors remove BlackRock as manager of six funds overseeing about $10 billion in assets.

The retail shakeout has reached Brazil, where local players are starting to restructure and consolidate amid stiff competition from foreign giants like Amazon, MercadoLibre and Shein Group. Though e-commerce reshaped retailing in the US and Europe even before the pandemic, a confluence of economic, financial and logistical circumstance kept the South American nation insulated from the trend until later. That means the bankruptcies, mergers and strategic shifts that have rippled through the sector elsewhere are now coming for some of the biggest Brazilian chains.

The US is in talks to lead a group of allies that would give as much as
$50 billion in aid to Ukraine, with the massive outlay being repaid with the windfall profits from sovereign Russian assets that have been frozen–and are accruing interest—mostly in Europe. The plan is being discussed among the Group of Seven nations, with the US said to be pushing to have an agreement when G-7 leaders meet in Italy in June. The news comes as Ukraine struggles to hold resurgent Russian forces at bay as they await fresh arms from the US.

Sixth Street, the investment firm that owns a 20% stake in the San Antonio Spurs, is said to be planning to raise its first fund dedicated to the sports ecosystem. The San Francisco-based firm has held preliminary talks with potential investors about the vehicle, which will seek to invest in sports teams and leagues, media rights and related businesses.

Elon Musk wants people to invest in Tesla only if they trust it can make self-driving cars. Trouble is, the stock already trades at levels that assume the company has cracked that code, and then some. The electric vehicle maker’s shares are considerably more expensive than those of Nvidia and Microsoft—two mega-cap companies widely seen as AI pioneers. Yet, while earnings estimates for both of these tech giants are rising, for Tesla they are plummeting—because EV demand is slowing. “Musk has always wanted Tesla to be viewed as more than an EV maker, but that works when there is growth in the core business,” said David Mazza, chief executive at Roundhill Investments. “When your core business is declining, that narrative is a lot harder, which is why I think the multiple right now is detached from reality.”

Mention climate change fiction, and someone will inevitably bring up The Day After Tomorrow. In the blockbuster released 20 years ago this month, disruption to the North Atlantic Current plunges the US and UK into an icy winter. Tornadoes destroy Los Angeles, a wave slams into New York City and helicopters freeze in mid-air. The legacy of The Day After Tomorrow is complicated. Scientists are split between crediting the movie with fostering mass awareness of climate change, and criticizing it for misinforming and frightening its audience. Still, ever since then, climate change has become a staple of book and screen.

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