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| Tuesday, October 19, 2021 |
| Before we get to the meat of today's newsletter -- the top waiver-wire targets for Week 7 and the first look at my rankings -- can we just take a second to appreciate what Derrick Henry is doing right now? He had his third three-touchdown game of the season in Monday's win over the Bills, just the 10th time since the AFL-NFL merger a player had done that -- and he still has 11 games left! |
| Henry has been the best player in Fantasy this season, and it really hasn't been close -- his 168.1 PPR points are 39.3 more than any other RB, 15.3 more than the No. 1 WR, and more than all but four QB.. Here's his current 17-game pace just for fun: |
| 465 carries (would be an NFL record) 2,219 rushing yards (NFL record)28 rushing touchdowns (ties NFL record)45 receptions (26 more then previous career-high)419 receiving yards (213 more than previous high) |
| I was skeptical Henry could replicate his 2020 season, just I was skeptical he could replicate his 2019 last season, and he just keeps proving me wrong. He probably won't be able to keep his current pace up -- that would be the most carries for a season by nearly 50, for one thing. However, I've been saying that about him for years now, and he's done it every time. The passing game usage has helped take his game to another level -- though to be clear, he's also taken the rest of his game to the next level. |
| Henry is the easiest player to rank for Fantasy every week, because you just put him at No. 1 at RB and move on to the rest of the list. And the rest of that list was especially tough today, because Week 7 is shaping up to be one of the worst weeks in the history of Fantasy Football. |
| I'm sorry, I don't mean to be hyperbolic. It's just true. Based on NFC Average Draft Position data, just four of the preseason top-12 at running back are even available to play this week: Henry, Alvin Kamara, Jonathan Taylor, and Aaron Jones. Extend it to the top 24 in ADP, and you only add seven more names, and not all of those are must-start players at this point. It's the combination of injuries and a bye week featuring the Bills, Cowboys, Chargers, Vikings, Steelers and Jaguars all off at the same time that makes this week so tough. |
| Good luck filling out those lineups! We'll obviously help you out, but the truth is, we're all going to have to run out some pretty ugly combinations of players this week. The first step is to see if there's anyone on the waiver-wire who can help you, so we'll start this morning's newsletter with a look at Jamey Eisenberg's top targets for Week 7. Then, we'll get to my rankings, with some thoughts on each position. |
| For more on what will be another busy week on the injury front, make sure you tune in to Fantasy Football Today on CBS Sports HQ at noon ET, and for help locking in your waiver-wire claims join Jamey, Adam Aizer, and me on the FFT YouTube stream tonight at 8 p.m., where we'll be taking your questions live for an hour. If you've got any questions before then, as always, you can email me at Chris.Towers@CBSi.com with the subject line "#AskFFT" to be included this week -- including in tomorrow's trade mailbag. |
| And here's what we've got on tap in today's newsletter: |
| ➕Top Week 7 Waiver Wire Targets📈Week 7 Rankings📉 |
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| ➕Top Week 7 Waiver Wire Targets |
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| Hopefully, this week's waiver options will be able to make an impact, and there are a few who certainly have the opportunity. You can find Jamey's entire breakdown here. We're gonna need the help: |
| Jamey Eisenberg's top targets |
| Sterling Shepard (64% rostered) -- Unless you really need a running back, Shepard has to be the top target on waivers this week. He's been targeted at least nine times in all three of the full games he has played so far, with 283 yards on 26 catches and a touchdown in those three games. The Giants have been using him as their No. 1 receiver out of the slot so far this season, and he's a top-15 WR for me this week against the Panthers. Devonta Freeman (9%) -- With Latavius Murray leaving Sunday's game with an ankle injury, which could make the Ravens running game more concentrated. Freeman has probably looked best of the team's options of late, rushing for 53 yards and a touchdown on his nine carries in Week 6, and could be in line for a decent role against the Bengals this week. Rashaad Penny (10%) -- Pete Carroll told reporters Alex Collins ' injury wasn't that bad, but Carroll is notoriously overly optimistic about injuries in his public comments, to the point where you have to take them with a huge grain of salt. Maybe Collins will be good to go in time for Sunday against the Saints, but if not, Penny could be the lead back in his first game off IR. D'Ernest Johnson (2%) -- Johnson's value is going to depend on whether Nick Chubb's absence from his calf injury is just a one-week thing and he's back in time for Thursday's game against the Broncos. If he isn't -- and I kind of doubt he will be, given the short turnaround -- Johnson could be starting at a 20-touch role with Kareem Hunt expected to miss multiple weeks with his own calf injury. Hopefully, we'll get some updates on Chubb today, because Johnson would shoot up to the No. 2 spot for me on waiver priorities if Chubb is out. Ricky Seals-Jones (25%) -- Seals-Jones is a top-10 TE sort of by default for Week 7 because of all the byes and injuries, but he also just kind of belongs there on the merits. He has 15 targets over the last two weeks, with nine receptions for 99 yards and a touchdown. He's basically playing every snap with Logan Thomas out and is the top streaming option right now. And potentially for as long as Thomas is out. |
| One (more) target for each position |
| QB: Tua Tagovailoa (32%) -- The Dolphins have been throwing the ball quite a bit, and Tagovailoa looked pretty good in Week 6, scoring 25.4 PPR points in his first game back from IR. Sure, it was against the Jaguars, but the good news is, he gets the Falcons in Week 7, another very nice matchup. If you need a streamer, I think he's the guy to go with. RB: Rhamondre Stevenson (35%) -- Damien Harris didn't really lose much playing time in Week 6 despite some concerns that he might be punished for his fumble issues. However, Stevenson still played a solid role for the second game in a row, logging a 33% snap share with five carries (including a touchdown) and three catches for 39 yards on three targets. The passing game usage is the most interesting part because if he could earn that role, it makes his upside significantly higher if he does end up eating into Harris' usage. WR: Rashod Bateman (31%) -- Hopefully Bateman's drop that led to an interception won't be held against him because the Ravens got him involved immediately when he made his NFL debut in Week 6. He basically stepped into Sammy Watkins' role, earning six targets on 27 Lamar Jackson passes, and if he has something like that role moving forward, Bateman could be a second-half breakout. TE: Cole Kmet (13%) -- Kmet hasn't quite had the breakout we were hoping for yet, but maybe Week 6 was the start of something. He caught four of the five passes thrown his way for a season-high 49 yards in that one, and now gets an opportunity against a Buccaneers defense that has struggled against the pass at times. He's a desperation play, but a lot of you are probably pretty desperate at tight end right now. |
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| 📈Week 7 Rankings📉 |
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| Here's where things stand for me in my first run through of the Week 7 rankings for PPR leagues. You can find Jamey, Dave, and Heath's rankings right here: |
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| Quarterbacks |
| Last season, we saw a gap emerge between the elite quarterbacks for Fantasy and the rest of the field, and that gap hasn't gotten any smaller so far in 2021. It's been possible to stream and find success this season, but we've also seen the likes of Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, and Teddy Bridgewater follow up big performances with some pretty crushing lows, so it's been risky territory. |
| In Week 7, we have no Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, or Justin Herbert, so there's a good chunk of the elite Fantasy options off the board -- and Kirk Cousins has been a top-12 guy as well so far. So, you might actually be in the market for some streamers. The top options for this week, in my eyes, are Matt Ryan and Tagovailoa in the same game. Neither has played so well this season that you feel super confident in them, but neither have Darnold, Jones, Derek Carr or the rest of the potential options. |
| Patrick Mahomes @ TENKyler Murray vs. HOUTom Brady vs. CHILamar Jackson vs. CINJalen Hurts @ LVMatthew Stafford vs. DETAaron Rodgers vs. WASJoe Burrow @ BALMatt Ryan @ MIA Tua Tagovailoa vs. ATLDaniel Jones vs. CARDerek Carr vs. PHIBaker Mayfield vs. DENCarson Wentz @ SFRyan Tannehill vs. KCJameis Winston @ SEAJimmy Garoppolo vs. INDTeddy Bridgewater @ CLETaylor Heinicke @ GB Sam Darnold @ NYGGeno Smith vs. NOMac Jones vs. NYJJustin Fields @ TBJared Goff @ LARZach Wilson @ NEDavis Mills @ ARI |
| Running backs |
| I already went over the attrition we've seen at the running back position so far this season, with just 11 of the top 24 backs in NFC ADP even available to be in your lineup in Week 7. But if you narrow it down to players I would actually feel OK started in Week 7, I can only get to maybe 19 of the top 36 in ADP, and that's really stretching it with guys like Javonte Williams, Chase Edmonds, Melvin Gordon, Michael Carter, A.J. Dillon, and Myles Gaskin being included in the "feeling OK" category. It might actually be as few as 14 of the top 36. |
| I think this has to be one of the worst weeks for the running back position in a long time in Fantasy football. Maybe not ever, but I genuinely cannot remember a week in my 21 years playing where I felt confident in so few players. And things will look even worse than my rankings if Alex Collins does end up not playing -- though I'll also add that I may be too low on Antonio Gibson right now if the MRI comes back clean on his lingering shin injury. We'll see there, though if Gibson does end up having to miss time, Jaret Patterson might find himself moving into the top-30 range, so consider adding him as a low-cost FAB bid when waivers run. |
| Derrick Henry vs. KCAlvin Kamara @ SEAAaron Jones vs. WASLeonard Fournette vs. CHIDarrell Henderson vs. DETD'Andre Swift @ LARJoe Mixon @ BALCordarrelle Patterson @ MIAMike Davis @ MIA Jonathan Taylor @ SFChuba Hubbard @ NYGDarrel Williams @ TENJosh Jacobs vs. PHIDevontae Booker vs. CARJ.D. McKissic @ GBAlex Collins vs. NOMiles Sanders @ LVDamien Harris vs. NYJChase Edmonds vs. HOU D'Ernest Johnson vs. DENElijah Mitchell vs. INDJames Conner vs. HOUDamien Williams @ TBMyles Gaskin vs. ATLMichael Carter @ NEMelvin Gordon @ CLEJavonte Williams @ CLEJamaal Williams @ LARKhalil Herbert @ TB AJ Dillon vs. WASKenneth Gainwell @ LVKenyan Drake vs. PHINyheim Hines @ SFAntonio Gibson @ GBDavid Johnson @ ARIRhamondre Stevenson vs. NYJJerick McKinnon @ TENMark Ingram @ ARIDevonta Freeman vs. CIN Ty'Son Williams vs. CINRoyce Freeman @ NYGTy Johnson @ NELe'Veon Bell vs. CINSony Michel vs. DETJeremy McNichols vs. KCBrandon Bolden vs. NYJGiovani Bernard vs. CHIDeejay Dallas vs. NOMalcolm Brown vs. ATL Salvon Ahmed vs. ATLPhillip Lindsay @ ARITy Montgomery @ SEARonald Jones vs. CHITrey Sermon vs. INDJaret Patterson @ GBTevin Coleman @ NEMarlon Mack @ SFPeyton Barber vs. PHISamaje Perine @ BAL Wayne Gallman @MIA |
| Wide receivers |
| Wide receiver is probably in the best shape of any position for Week 7, though we are obviously missing several must-start options here as well. Given the relative depth of the position, your flex options should probably come from this list this week, and if you don't absolutely need a running back for Week 7, Sterling Shepard, Rashod Bateman, and T.Y. Hilton (if his quad injury isn't serious) would probably be my top targets on waivers. |
| Davante Adams vs. WASTyreek Hill @ TENCalvin Ridley @ MIADeebo Samuel vs. INDCooper Kupp vs. DETD.J. Moore @ NYGJa'Marr Chase @ BALTerry McLaurin @ GBChris Godwin vs. CHI Robert Woods vs. DETA.J. Brown vs. KCMarquise Brown vs. CINSterling Shepard vs. CARMike Evans vs. CHIAntonio Brown vs. CHIBrandin Cooks @ ARICourtland Sutton @ CLEDeVonta Smith @ LVJaylen Waddle vs. ATL D.K. Metcalf vs. NOTee Higgins @ BALDeAndre Hopkins vs. HOUJamison Crowder @ NEOdell Beckham vs. DENJakobi Meyers vs. NYJMichael Pittman @ SFTyler Lockett vs. NOCorey Davis @ NERondale Moore vs. HOU Tyler Boyd @ BALTim Patrick @ CLEHunter Renfrow vs. PHIDarnell Mooney @ TBAllen Robinson @ TBRashod Bateman vs. CINMecole Hardman @ TENA.J. Green vs. HOUHenry Ruggs vs. PHIT.Y. Hilton @ SF Robby Anderson @ NYGChristian Kirk vs. HOUMarquez Callaway @ SEABrandon Aiyuk vs. INDDante Pettis vs. CARJalen Reagor @ LVElijah Moore @ NERussell Gage @ MIANelson Agholor vs. NYJDonovan Peoples-Jones vs. DEN Nick Westbrook-Ikhine vs. KCDevin Duvernay vs. CINDyami Brown @ GBAdam Humphries @ GBKendrick Bourne vs. NYJPreston Williams vs. ATLRandall Cobb vs. WASZach Pascal @ SFDeonte Harris @ SEAQuez Watkins @ LV Van Jefferson vs. DET |
| Tight ends |
| The Eagles' decision to trade Zach Ertz last week might have exposed two starting-caliber tight ends to the Fantasy pool, because neither he nor Dallas Goedert were really must-start players playing alongside each other. However, Goedert now moves way up the rankings, to No. 5 for me, while Ertz is in the top 12 -- though Goedert does still need to be cleared from the COVID list, while I have questions about how Ertz will find targets in such a crowded Cardinals passing game. I think the list of players I feel good about starting at tight end probably goes eight deep right now, and the next four look like pretty solid options right now, too. The position isn't deep, but it might actually be the deepest it has been this season. |
| Travis Kelce @ TENDarren Waller vs. PHIMark Andrews vs. CINKyle Pitts @ MIADallas Goedert @ LVT.J. Hockenson @ LARMike Gesicki vs. ATLNoah Fant @ CLEHunter Henry vs. NYJ Ricky Seals-Jones @ GBTyler Higbee vs. DETZach Ertz vs. HOUDavid Njoku vs. DENEvan Engram vs. CARAustin Hooper vs. DENCole Kmet @ TBJonnu Smith vs. NYJKyle Rudolph vs. CARRobert Tonyan vs. WAS Mo Alie-Cox @ SFCameron Brate vs. CHIJack Doyle @ SFC.J. Uzomah @ BALAnthony Firkser vs. KC |
| Top-150 Flex Rankings |
Derrick Henry vs. KCDavante Adams vs. WASTyreek Hill @ TENAlvin Kamara @ SEATravis Kelce @ TENAaron Jones vs. WASCalvin Ridley @ MIALeonard Fournette vs. CHIDeebo Samuel vs. IND Cooper Kupp vs. DETDarrell Henderson vs. DETD'Andre Swift @ LARD.J. Moore @ NYGBrandin Cooks @ ARIJoe Mixon @ BALCordarrelle Patterson @ MIAJa'Marr Chase @ BALTerry McLaurin @ GBDarren Waller vs. PHI Mark Andrews vs. CINChris Godwin vs. CHISterling Shepard vs. CARMike Davis @ MIARobert Woods vs. DETA.J. Brown vs. KCJonathan Taylor @ SFMarquise Brown vs. CINMike Evans vs. CHIAntonio Brown vs. CHI Courtland Sutton @ CLEChuba Hubbard @ NYGDarrel Williams @ TENDevontae Booker vs. CARJosh Jacobs vs. PHIJ.D. McKissic @ GBD'Ernest Johnson vs. DENDeVonta Smith @ LVJaylen Waddle vs. ATLAlex Collins vs. NO D.K. Metcalf vs. NOTee Higgins @ BALDeAndre Hopkins vs. HOUMiles Sanders @ LVDallas Goedert @ LVKyle Pitts @ MIAJamison Crowder @ NET.J. Hockenson @ LARChase Edmonds vs. HOUOdell Beckham vs. DEN Elijah Mitchell vs. INDMike Gesicki vs. ATLJakobi Meyers vs. NYJMichael Pittman @ SFTyler Lockett vs. NOMyles Gaskin vs. ATLJames Conner vs. HOUDamien Williams @ TBCorey Davis @ NEMichael Carter @ NE Rondale Moore vs. HOUTyler Boyd @ BALTim Patrick @ CLEMelvin Gordon @ CLEHunter Renfrow vs. PHIDarnell Mooney @ TBNoah Fant @ CLEJamaal Williams @ LARAllen Robinson @ TBRashod Bateman vs. CIN Damien Harris vs. NYJMecole Hardman @ TENJavonte Williams @ CLEAJ Dillon vs. WASKenneth Gainwell @ LVA.J. Green vs. HOUHenry Ruggs vs. PHIHunter Henry vs. NYJRicky Seals-Jones @ GBKenyan Drake vs. PHI T.Y. Hilton @ SFRobby Anderson @ NYGChristian Kirk vs. HOUNyheim Hines @ SFMarquez Callaway @ SEAAntonio Gibson @ GBBrandon Aiyuk vs. INDDavid Johnson @ ARIKhalil Herbert @ TBTyler Higbee vs. DET Rhamondre Stevenson vs. NYJJerick McKinnon @ TENDante Pettis vs. CARMark Ingram @ ARIJalen Reagor @ LVElijah Moore @ NERussell Gage @ MIAZach Ertz vs. HOUTy'Son Williams vs. CINRoyce Freeman @ NYG David Njoku vs. DENTy Johnson @ NENelson Agholor vs. NYJDevonta Freeman vs. CINLe'Veon Bell vs. CINSony Michel vs. DETJeremy McNichols vs. KCEvan Engram vs. CARAustin Hooper vs. DENDonovan Peoples-Jones vs. DEN Nick Westbrook-Ikhine vs. KCDevin Duvernay vs. CINDyami Brown @ GBAdam Humphries @ GBKendrick Bourne vs. NYJCole Kmet @ TBPreston Williams vs. ATLRandall Cobb vs. WASBrandon Bolden vs. NYJJonnu Smith vs. NYJ Zach Pascal @ SFDeonte Harris @ SEAQuez Watkins @ LVVan Jefferson vs. DETKyle Rudolph vs. CARNico Collins @ ARIRobert Tonyan vs. WASKenny Stills @ SEABryan Edwards vs. PHIDemarcus Robinson @ TEN Terrace Marshall @ NYGMohamed Sanu vs. INDMo Alie-Cox @ SFGiovani Bernard vs. CHICameron Brate vs. CHIByron Pringle @ TENDeejay Dallas vs. NOMalcolm Brown vs. ATLJack Doyle @ SFC.J. Uzomah @ BAL Kendall Hinton @ CLEAlbert Wilson vs. ATLAnthony Firkser vs. KCGerald Everett vs. NOO.J. Howard vs. CHIMack Hollins vs. ATLAllen Lazard vs. WASSalvon Ahmed vs. ATLPhillip Lindsay @ ARITy Montgomery @ SEA John Ross vs. CAR
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