Trade talk optimism

Good morning. Donald Trump said there was progress made in trade talks with Japan, but investors are still waiting to hear it. TSMC offers a positive sign for tech. And, with Canada’s election just 11 days away, all eyes are on young voters. Listen to the day’s top stories.

Donald Trump said negotiators made “big progress” in talks with Japanese officials—but there was no immediate halt to tariffs and Japan’s lead negotiator (who has his work cut out for him) said they didn’t discuss the yen. A second round of talks is expected later this month.
TSMC reaffirmed its 2025 revenue and spending forecasts, signaling confidence amid trade war risks and a tech selloff. Nvidia’s CEO arrived in Beijing (this just after the US barred the company from selling H20 AI chips to China). And back in America, a House committee said DeepSeek is a “profound” threat to US national security.

Harvard pushed back after Trump said the university should lose it its tax-exempt status and several outlets reported that the IRS is considering the issue. A school spokesman said such a move would be “unlawful.” Former Harvard University President Larry Summers warned of government “tyranny.”
The Justice Department is looking to accelerate deportation cases, directing federal immigration judges to scour their dockets for asylum cases they can deny without holding a full hearing. Trump’s border czar also told Fox News he plans for federal agents to “flood” worksites in sanctuary cities. Separately, the US is also asking an appeals court to block a judge’s directive that government officials be questioned about a Maryland man wrongly deported to El Salvador.
Oil rose for a second day after the US vowed to reduce Iran’s energy exports to zero. Scott Bessent said the US would apply maximum pressure to disrupt the OPEC member’s oil supply chain, as his Treasury Department sanctioned a second Chinese refinery accused of handling crude from Iran. Meanwhile, Tehran said it won’t be drawn into negotiations over its ability to enrich uranium and warned that fledgling nuclear talks may fall apart if Trump’s administration “moves the goalposts.”

Deep Dive: Young Canadians

Younger voters will be critical in the upcoming Canadian election, and party leaders are racing to ensure their most enthusiastic demographics turn up at the polls.

The Big Take

Opinion

Recession fears have been driven entirely by a new policy (US tariffs) that might yet be revoked, John Authers writes. The chances are that it will create an epic buying opportunity at some point but that may be much later if there’s a downturn. And it’ll be hard to put together a market rally if uncertainty persists.

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Before You Go

Fashion designer Brunello Cucinelli, whose success has been attributed to the rise of quiet luxury, has a peculiar distaste for the term. You don’t want to be quiet, the designer said. “You want to be chic. You want to be sought after. Quiet luxury does not exist.”

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