HOW TO THINK ABOUT IT

Pulling back. Though Pompeo needled Russian officials over Moscow’s alleged involvement in the conflict in Venezuela Sunday, Trump (pictured) reportedly urged caution from senior advisers. He spoke to Putin over the weekend and ended the call claiming that Russia is “not at all looking to get involved” in the Venezuelan conflict. Shortly afterward, Venezuela’s foreign minister met with his Russian counterpart in what’s thought to be an attempt to show international support for Maduro’s regime.

Charging forward. U.S. officials claimed the deployment of military force toward Iran was triggered by reports that Tehran was preparing an attack on U.S. troops in the Middle East. But it’s part of a larger campaign against Iran’s previous steps toward opening up to the wider world. Other recent moves from the U.S. have included ending waivers that allowed U.S. allies to buy Iranian oil, and designating the country’s state-sponsored Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani responded to the latter by passing a bill last Tuesday that formally labeled all U.S. military personnel in the Middle East “terrorists.”

Meanwhile, in China. Previous U.S. missions in the South China Sea have come close to causing diplomatic incidents. In October last year, the U.S. Navy said the USS Decatur was forced off course by a warship as it sailed by the Spratly Islands. China maintains its claim to the South China Sea, and therefore sees U.S. trips as a violation of its borders. But for others in the region, particularly the Philippines and Vietnam, such outings by the U.S. and other allies are vital to maintaining order in the disputed waters.

But it’s all about internal politics. Tensions are more likely sparked by movements in China’s own political system than indicative of a shift in relations between the two countries. With Trump putting on the pressure, Chinese leader Xi Jinping risks looking weak if he kowtows, but foreign investors are pushing for their own reforms. Meanwhile, spiraling markets have resulted from Trump’s tweets, with soybean and corn futures — both of which would be targeted in a tit-for-tat trade war — falling to their lowest point in more than four decades. Planned retaliatory tariffs from China could further target the Rust Belt, a region where voters turned out in droves for Trump in 2016. That, analysts say, could also be behind Trump’s calculation in toughening his stance on China: It may appeal to voters hit hard by Chinese tariffs.

WHAT TO READ

Trump’s China Brinksmanship, in The Wall Street Journal
“Marshaling a united front with allies toward Beijing would have been better, but Mr. Trump is a unilateralist and his household remedy is tariffs.”

How Dangerous Are U.S.-Iran Tensions? by Keith Johnson in Foreign Policy
“Depending on its willingness to incur casualties and massive counterstrikes, Iran could impede shipping through the Persian Gulf area for a limited period of time.”

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