U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales to Rise 5th Straight Month in January; Q1 Forecast for 4% Gain

The bottom line is raw volume is growing, albeit slowly, with a forecast year-over-year gain in January, as well as the entire first quarter. Because of the chaos of the past three years, January’s upward spike to a 15.6 million-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate from December’s 13.4 million is more a result of disruption to typical year-end seasonal trends than a sudden surge in demand. Annualized rates in February and March are expected to fall closer in line with current market conditions and first-quarter 2023 is forecast to total a 14.6 million-unit SAAR, which still is an increase from both the year-ago quarter and Q4-2022.

U.S. light vehicle sales and inventory forecast by company and by source and vehicle type for January 2023. Includes SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rates) and days' supply projections.