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Hi John, here's what you need to know for April 3rd in 3:13 minutes.

🧘‍♂️ Finimized while doing a YouTube yoga class with two excitable kids in London, UK (11°C/52°F 🌤)

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Today's big stories

  1. As economists try to figure out how quickly the global economy will recover, they gave Nike a bit of free publicity
  2. Our analysts explain the “coronabond” crisis that could be a bigger threat than Brexit – Read Now
  3. Mergers and acquisitions have ground to a halt amid the coronavirus pandemic, which might create new opportunities for private equity firms
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Cheer Up

Cheer Up

What’s Going On Here?

Give me a V! Give me a U! Give me an L! What does it spell? According to economists working out what’s next for the global economy: a recovery, hopefully.

What Does This Mean?

One possible recovery is the “V-shaped” kind, where things rise as quickly as they fell. For that to happen, economists reckon the European and American coronavirus outbreaks would need to clear up by next month, allowing people and businesses to start spending – and driving growth – again. They also reckon that’s pretty unlikely. It seems more realistic the virus will stick around at least until June, leading to a slower “U-shaped” recovery – or maybe a Nike-style swoosh, where the economy initially rebounds but then drifts up more slowly.

Then there are the shapes no one wants. An “L-shaped” recovery isn’t much of one at all: it assumes the virus keeps spending frozen, employees furloughed, and businesses uncertain late into the year. A “W shape”, meanwhile, assumes the recovery will get temporarily disrupted by the virus’s return.

Why Should I Care?

Zooming out: Alphabet soup.
Whatever shape an eventual recovery takes, it likely hinges on reducing the virus’s spread. And since that doesn’t seem to be happening in the US and Europe yet, it doesn’t look like they’ll be in the mood to spend outside helping their own economies. That might explain why investors shrugged off survey data this week showing a pickup in China’s economic activity. After all, if international customers aren’t coming to market yet, it’s unlikely to translate into positive “hard data” like economic growth.

For markets: Corporate shills.
Investors aren’t shrugging off “investment grade” corporate bonds, which credit rating agencies (think Experian but for companies) generally consider safe for most investors. With major central banks now buying up government bonds – pushing their yields down – return-seeking bond investors are instead buying riskier corporate bonds. That pushes their prices up, benefiting investors who bought in first.

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2/3 Premium

Bigger Than Brexit

The European Union faces a bigger existential threat than Brexit as it battles the economic effects of coronavirus  – and it’s all tied up with so-called “coronabonds”.

Get the full story in the Finimize app

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Forever Alone

Forever Alone

What’s Going On Here?

With coronavirus-hit companies dropping out of deals left, right, and center, investors could be about to miss out on the next big stock market duo.

What Does This Mean?

Xerox, the once-mighty printer pusher, scrapped its long-time effort to acquire technology hardware rival HP this week. The former would’ve had to borrow a lot of money to buy the latter – Xerox is worth $4 billion to HP’s $21 billion – and while banks were happy to lend, the printer company might’ve felt the deal was too risky.

More than 300 mergers and acquisitions totaling almost $100 billion have been shelved since November. A few of those are in the consumer staples sector, whose products – namely food, drinks, and household goods – typically see ongoing demand even when the economy slows. So if they’re not attracting deals, it makes sense other companies won’t either.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Not today, coronavirus!
At least the agreed merger between telecoms rivals T-Mobile US and Sprint went ahead this week – even as coronavirus scuppered their plans to sell investors $23 billion worth of debt to finance the deal. Instead, 16 banks stepped in to ensure the merger went ahead. Their willingness to lend might be down to the “defensive” nature of telecoms companies, whose long contracts generally make their future cash flow predictable and transparent. That means investors can be slightly more confident they’ll get paid the interest they’re owed on their debts – which isn't so common in other industries.

The bigger picture: Get ‘em while they’re cheap.
Most analysts expect deals to pick up again once the global economy’s on more solid footing. In the meantime, private equity firms – which have an estimated $2.5 trillion of cash on hand – might jump into action. They stand to benefit from larger future profits if they buy a firm at a lower valuation right now, cut costs while boosting growth, and sell it on after everything’s blown over (tweet this).

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💬 Quote of the day

“I am an optimist. It does not seem too much use being anything else.”

– Winston Churchill (a British politician, army officer, and writer)
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Don your very finest evening wear, ladies and gents, because it’s high time you painted the (virtual) town red. Sign up to one of our online events, pour yourself a glass of bubbly, and schmooze with the very best speakers from the comfort of your parlour. You can wear sweatpants on your bottom half, if you like.

🇭🇰 Hong Kong: US Election Explained – 9pm HKT, April 7th
🇷🇴 Romania: Investing During a Pandemic – 6pm ECT, April 8th
🇬🇧 Finimize HQ: Impact Investing in a Crisis – 6pm BST, April 9th
🇮🇳 India: Investing In Tumultuous Times – 4pm IST, April 11th
🇮🇳 India: The Indian Macroeconomy – 7pm IST, April 16th
🇭🇰 Hong Kong: COVID-Proof Your Portfolio – 9pm HKT, April 28th

📚 What we're reading

  • Ecuador’s tallest waterfall has disappeared (Newsweek)
  • This six-year-old has a bright future (ABC)
  • Advertisers are coming for your fingerprints (The Next Web)

👋 A message from our founder

“Hey guys. There’s a lot of news out there at the moment – and you ought to be feeling informed right now, not overwhelmed. So we’re here to keep things simple: we’ll bring you the stories, insights, and deep-dives you need to follow exactly what’s going on without getting lost in the coronavirus weeds. You can find it all on the Today tab in the Finimize app.”

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