Good morning from Brussels.

Although he is not a politician known for following through on his frequent public threats, many analysts now believe that US President Donald Trump may ultimately impose tariffs on EU products.

But what will be the impact on the EU economy in practice? Thomas Moller-Nielsen reports that it’s going to be bad, but not too bad. Meanwhile, Europeans are making preparations to retaliate. 

As expected, Monday’s informal summit meant to wiggle down the options to find the money for the defence industry and contracts failed to deliver a concrete plan.

Aurélie Pugnet has made a comprehensive country-by-country overview of member states’ defence spending priorities.

NGOs in Brussels have responded to claims that the European Commission asked them to lobby on its behalf, stating that the EU funds dispute is an attempt to "discredit and defund" them."

Lastly, the EU Commission has mapped out a ''holistic'' strategy against big e-commerce platforms, a leaked draft seen by Euractiv shows. 

BERLIN

Germany has ruled out using the DSA crisis mechanism ahead of the elections, following a week of debate and a stress test on platform moderation. Read more.

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PARIS

France one step closer to 2025 budget as socialists rally behind government. Socialist lawmakers in the National Assembly have confirmed they will reject a no-confidence vote on Wednesday, ending days of hesitation and paving the way for the adoption of the 2025 budget bill. Read more.

ROME

Unwanted: The scores of migrants Italy refuses to take back. Italy has accepted only three of the 12,841 people that Germany wants it to take back under the Dublin rules, leaving the rest in bureaucratic limbo, as Rome stonewalls a system it officially upholds. Read more.

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MADRID

Poll: Support for Spain’s Vox has grown steadily since 2023 election. The far-right Vox party, the third-largest in the Spanish parliament, has surged in popularity since the 2023 general election, while the ruling Socialist Party has recorded its worst result since then, a new poll showed on Monday. Read more.

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LISBON

Portuguese PM slams Trump’s tariff threats. One doesn't have to be a "Nobel Prize winner in economics" to realise that imposing tariffs on imported products will lead to price rises, Portugal's Prime Minister Luís Montenegro said after Trump issued new tariff threats on Monday. Read more.

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ATHENS

Greece on alert after more than 500 earthquakes shake islands. A rare geological phenomenon causing more than 500 earthquakes in the Aegean Sea has raised eyebrows in Athens, with scientists trying to understand what is really happening and politicians examining the economic impact on landmark tourist destinations. Read more.

LONDON

Innovation, military mobility, critical infrastructure protection, and industrial collaboration are the priorities for UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer as he discusses the upcoming EU-UK security pact with EU leaders. Read more.

STOCKHOLM

No Sweden-Latvia underwater cable sabotage. There has been no sabotage behind last weekend's cable break between Sweden and Latvia, the Swedish prosecutor's office has confirmed. Read more.

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OSLO

Norwegian government mulls Temu ban. Norway is calling for a crackdown on Temu in the European Economic Area after an investigation found highly toxic products on the platform. Read more.

BRATISLAVA

Slovak business representatives argue that the EU needs a more assertive trade policy to combat unfair competition from third countries, warning that state interference and ongoing geopolitical conflicts could form a "lethal cocktail" that drives industry out of Europe by 2025. Read more.

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WARSAW

Poles evade textile collection rules as EU directive takes effect. As EU legislation requiring the selective collection of textiles takes effect, Poles are circumventing the rules by legally disposing of textiles in mixed waste bins. Read more.

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PRAGUE

Czech Senator faces Russian threats over fake social media post. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has verbally attacked Czech Senator Miroslava Němcová, calling her a "degenerate European creature" and wishing for her death. Read more.

SOFIA

Bulgaria rejects Trump's call for sharp increase in military spending. Bulgaria has exceeded its plan to increase military spending and no new increase to the level of 5% demanded by US President Donald Trump is expected in the near future, Bulgarian Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov said on Monday. Read more.

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BUCHAREST

Romanian president rejects calls to resign. President Klaus Iohannis insisted on Monday that he would not leave office until a new president is elected, despite a dispute over his interim status at Cotroceni Palace. Read more.

• EU: Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivers speech at EU Ambassadors Conference 2025;
• Parliament President Roberta Metsola participates in EU Ambassadors Conference 2025;
• High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas holds meetings with Foreign Affairs Minister of Congo Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi, Council of Europe Secretary General Alain Berset, Foreign Affairs Minister of the Solomon Islands Peter Shanel Agovaka; Co-chairs Core Group on the establishment of a Special Tribunal for the Crime of Aggression against Ukraine;
• Commission Vice President Henna Virkkunen delivers keynote speech at Project 2KNOW final conference “Knowledge to Prevent Online Sexual Violence Against Children”;
• Sustainable Transport and Tourism Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas presents second edition of European Maritime Transport Environmental Report, in Lisbon, Portugal;
• Trade and Economic Security Commissioner Maros Šefčovič meets with Foreign Relations Minister of Uruguay Omar Paganini, and Economy and Finance Minister of Uruguay Azucena Arbeleche;
• Health and Animal Welfare Commissioner Oliver Várhelyi holds meetings with European Cancer Organisation President Csaba Dégi, President of EU Chamber of Commerce in China Jens Eskelund; Delivers keynote speech at Youth Policy Dialogue on World Cancer Day.

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[Edited by Sarantis Michalopoulos, Daniel Eck, Vas Panagiotopoulos]