Maduro has claimed the reaction to the election is tantamount to an attempt at a coup, which he has said is being led primarily by far-right extremists. “We are not facing democratic opposition, we are facing a violent, fascist and criminal counter-revolution. And I will not tire of explaining it to our people and to the world,” he said in a televised address. But there is little evidence that his assertions are true.
Instead, the picture appears to be one of a rigged election followed by a repressive attempt to cling on to power. Here’s what you need to know.
Accusations of election rigging
Arbitrary arrests and detentions of opposition activists and clampdowns of civic spaces marred Venezuela’s election campaign. Hopes of a fair election began to erode at the start of the year when a supreme justice tribunal banned the popular presidential candidate María Corina Machado on the grounds of fraud and tax violations, which critics have called politically motivated . She has since endorsed González.
The Maduro government has also allegedly attempted to block the presence of opposition representatives at polling stations to monitor the process. Voters reportedly found that their polling stations had been unexpectedly moved, in some cases to other states. Meanwhile, in some neighbourhoods that are Maduro strongholds, polling stations were kept open for longer.
“What is surprising is that these efforts weren’t sufficient to really make up for the profound unpopularity that the incumbent government was facing,” Sabatini says. “So they have been accused of resorting to old-fashioned ballot box stuffing or just making up the numbers.”
The opposition has said they have seen 80% of paper ballots and, based on that tally, they were able to demonstrate that González won about 60% of the vote, compared with 30% for Maduro.
This analysis by Tiago Rogero sets out more of the evidence that Maduro was soundly beaten. Maduro has faced significant pressure to show proof of the results but so far the government of Venezuela has not provided any such information.
Consolidation of power
Since the death of Hugo Chávez in 2013, Maduro has been consolidating power in the military, judiciary, media and police. Not only has this further exacerbated repressive tendencies, it has also alienated his own base on the left. One survey found that Maduro’s popularity had dropped to 26.7%, compared with more than 59% for González. He has been described as a “populist without popularity”.
“The institutions of government have been fully packed with supporters and loyalists to the government, so there’s not much recourse that the opposition has in terms of going to a neutral institution to demand a recount or evidence,” Sabatini says.
González and Machado sent an open letter to the security forces earlier this week urging them to abandon Maduro. But within hours of the letter being posted on social media, attorney general Tarek Saab announced he was launching a criminal probe against González and Machado for inciting police and military officials to break the law. And defence minister and army chief Vladimir Padrino has rejected the appeal, saying that Maduro has his forces’ “absolute loyalty”.
The lives of Venezuelans
Due to a combination of mismanagement and sanctions from the US, Venezuela’s economy has shrunk by 75% in the last nine years. Recent reports have found that 82% of Venezuelans live below the poverty line, and 53% in extreme poverty. At one point, hyperinflation rates hit 130,000%. The quality of life for the average Venezuelan has eroded, and nearly 8 million have left the country – almost a quarter of the population.
This economic freefall has come hand in hand with increasing repression and human rights violations. Dissidents have been forcibly disappeared and tortured, and Amnesty International has said that “impunity for ongoing extrajudicial executions by the security forces persisted”.
The civic response
There has been a huge civic response to the allegations of election fraud. People have taken to the streets, despite an awareness that the consequences of such an action could be devastating. Since the election, more than 2,000 people have been arrested.
This piece by Tom Phillips and Patricia Torres hears from some of the family members of those who have been detained, like Tibisay Betancourt, whose son went out to buy a bottle of Sprite during the protest and was seen being beaten and dragged away by the police.
“What’s curious about this is there is a massive cross-class coalition of people demanding change, which is unique,” Sabatini says, adding that past Chávez supporters from the barrios and shantytowns in rural areas are pouring into the streets demanding change.
“There’s widespread disbelief, distrust, anger, and I think the biggest problem may be after this wave, if there’s no response at all we will likely see apathy and then a desire for people to leave, hollowing out the country even more than it has been.”
Diplomatic pressure
The international community has also been vocal in its concern about the situation in Venezuela. The US, the EU and the UK have said they will not recognise the election results, and have recognised González as the winner.
Brazil, Mexico and Colombia have called for Venezuela to release full vote tallies and are reportedly lobbying Maduro to accept the results.
“It remains to be seen whether Brazil and Colombia and maybe Mexico, which are leftwing governments, will have a little more leverage,” Sabatini says. “But there is the question of how much political and diplomatic capital they’re willing to expend.”
There is an incentive for some South American countries to put pressure on Maduro, though: they already house a significant number of Venezuelan refugees. There are close to 1 million in Brazil and close to 3 million in Colombia, and while both countries have been welcoming to those that have fled, there are signs of tension in places which could bring domestic problems for these governments.
Without the support of China and Russia, who have backed Maduro and given recognition to his government, there will be no multilateral solution to the crisis engulfing Venezuela. “It’s really going to come down to either bilateral or ad hoc diplomacy,” Sabatini says. “But there is no clear path forward.”
