| | | | Tuesday, May 7, 2024 | | Before we get to today's newsletter, a programming note: This is the last you'll be hearing from me for a couple of weeks. I'm going on vacation until the 21st, so Scott White and Dan Schneier will be helping me out by taking the newsletter off my hands for a couple of weeks. You'll still get updates from the previous night's games, with waiver-wire targets, standouts, news, and everything else you subscribe for, it just won't be from me for the next two weeks. | | But my rankings are up to date as of Monday, including updated Trade Values Charts and rest-of-season overall rankings for both H2H and Roto leagues, and Scott and Dan will keep you updated on everything else you need to know about between now and my return. You're in good hands. | | Alright, now let's get to what you need to know from Monday's action, starting with some waiver-wire targets: | | | | Tuesday's top waiver targets | | What if we got excited about the wrong outfield prospect callups? Amid all the hype around Joey Loperfido, Jordan Beck, and some others, it's been Rays outfielder Jonny DeLuca who has been making the biggest impact of late. | | DeLuca made his debut over the weekend, though I guess if you want to be technical about it, he wasn't "called up" – he would have made the Opening Day roster if not for a fractured hand suffered at the end of Spring Training – and he's been an impact player so far. After homering for the first time Monday against the White Sox, DeLuca is now 5 for 15 with 10 RBI in his first four games, with just two strikeouts to his name. | | And, what might be even more promising than his production is the fact that DeLuca has actually started the first four games of his career for the Rays, including with Josh Lowe also returning from the IL Monday. I don't know if that necessarily means he's going to remain an everyday player moving forward – this is the Rays, after all – but it's a very promising sign so far. | | DeLuca has been a fixture on top prospects lists in his climb up the minor-league ladder, because he's been pretty old for his levels throughout his career. However, he was a significant part of the return for Tyler Glasnow this offseason, and has been very productive in his minor-league career, sporting an OPS above .960 with 26 homers and 18 steals in just 104 games at Double-A and Triple-A overall.That he's been 24 and 25 for the majority of those games explains why there has been some skepticism around him from prospect folks, but it looks like a Fantasy-friendly skill set, and he's hit the ground running, so I don't see why he shouldn't be added in at least five-outfielder leagues. Just in case. | | | | Bryse Wilson, RP, Brewers (9%) – Most of the time, the "failed starter to lights-out reliever" pipeline doesn't run in reverse, but Wilson is trying to make it work. His move to the Brewers rotation a few weeks ago flew under the radar, but with consecutive quality starts under his belt, maybe that ought to change. Wilson went six shutout, one-hit innings against the Royals Monday, striking out six and walking three, and he now has three earned runs allowed with 15 strikeouts and six walks over 16.1 innings in his past three starts. I don't think he's likely to sustain this level of success, but he does have a starter's arsenal that generated a decent 11 whiffs Monday. Wilson might be just a guy; he's carrying his success from the bullpen into his first few starts, and that's interesting enough for deeper leagues, especially with his RP eligibility. | | Max Kepler, OF, Twins (47%) – I liked Kepler as a sleeper coming into the season after he posted by far the best quality of contact metrics of his career in 2023, so I'm obviously happy to see him hitting well right now. But I've gotta be honest, I'm not quite sure I buy him as a must-start outfielder, or anything, even though I want to. He had two doubles Monday, and they came off the bat at 69.9 and 76.9 mph – there's hittin' 'em where they ain't, and then there's whatever that is, and whatever that is isn't sustainable. Overall, his quality of contact has actually taken a big step backward – he had a .428 expected wOBA on contact in 2023, compared to just a .301 mark right now – though his improved strikeout rate has helped make up for that. I'm willing to ride the hot hand with Kepler, who now has multiple hits in three straight games – but it'd be nice if he started hitting the ball harder at some point. | | Simeon Woods Richardson, SP, Twins (23%) – Here's another one where I'm not quite sure how much of an impact you're likely to get, but I'm fine riding the hot hand if you don't have anything better to do with the roster spot. Woods Richardson struck out a career-high eight in six innings against the Mariners , with at least three whiffs on his four-seamer, slider, and changeup, the best start of his MLB career. In fact, it was just his second start with more strikeouts than innings while throwing at least five, and now gives him 21 in 20.2 innings, to go along with five walks. He was a decent prospect before struggling in the high-minors, but maybe he's starting to figure something out. Again, my expectations aren't that high, but if you're in a deeper league, maybe add him and see if he can build on this. | | Zach Neto, SS, Angels (22%) – It's been a quiet start to the season for Neto, who is hitting just .239/.288/.385 even after Monday's homer against the Pirates, the team's lone run off Mitch Keller . But there have been signs of life from him, as Neto now has three homers while hitting .356 over the past 13 days, with a 91.2 mph average exit velocity, a good sign after he started the season ice cold. I'm a believer in Neto's upside, and now we're starting to see some signs of it. As a MI option, he's not the most exciting, but there's 15-15 upside here if he keeps this up. | | | | News and Notes | | Christian Yelich did some hitting on the field Monday, the first time since he went on the IL with a lower-back strain. I'm hoping he'll be able to begin a rehab assignment within the next week or so if all goes well, though that's just a guess on my part. | | Cody Bellinger could be activated from the IL at some point during the team's current series against the Padres. | | Freddy Peralta dropped his appeal of a five-game suspension and began serving the ban on Monday, and with the Brewers playing everyday this week, that would leave him eligible to return Saturday. | | George Kirby has been cleared to start Wednesday against the Twins. He left his previous start with right knee soreness. | | Blake Snell will throw a three-inning live batting practice Tuesday as he works his way back from an adductor strain. He could go on a rehab assignment after that, and may be able to return from the IL next week or the week after, depending on how many starts they want him to make. | | Jesus Luzardo struck out six over 5.2 scoreless innings in a rehab start at Single-A on Sunday, a good sign as he works his way back from what sure looks like a minor elbow injury. | | The Rays activated Josh Lowe and optioned Curtis Mead back to Triple-A. Lowe hit third in the lineup Monday and finished 2-5 with a double. | | The Guardians expect Steven Kwan to miss approximately four weeks after placing him on the IL with a left hamstring strain. | | Nolan Jones did throwing and running drills on Saturday. The hope is he'll be able to return by mid-May from his back injury. | | TJ Friedl could be activated as soon as Tuesday. He's missed the start of the season with a fractured right wrist, and is worth adding in any categories leagues where he might be available. | | Francisco Alvarez had the stitches from his surgically repaired left thumb removed on Monday. If all goes well, he should be back around the All-Star break. | | Bryan Woo could be activated this weekend to face the A's. He is 77% rostered, and I'd be looking to add him, despite concerns about how he'll fair coming back from that elbow injury. | | Braxton Garrett struck out 13 over 5.2 scoreless innings in his rehab start Monday in the Florida Complex league. He'll likely be activated to start Saturday or Sunday against the Phillies, and while I probably wouldn't start him in either, I do think he's worth adding ahead of the names in the waiver-wire section above. | | Taj Bradley has joined the Rays in Tampa and is likely to make his season debut later this week. He is 51% rostered, and is an even bigger priority than Garrett on waivers for me. | | Jorge Soler has missed two straight with shoulder discomfort, which comes at an awful time, because the Giants get three games in Coors this week. | | According to Buster Olney, Tanner Scott could be on the move next with the Marlins. Josh Bell could also interest teams. If Scott is moved, Anthony Maldonado could get a look in the ninth inning, or they could turn to A.J. Puk when he is healthy. | | Paul Skenes' next start will come at Triple-A later this week. His start on Sunday wasn't as dominant as he had been prior, allowing 2 ER over 4.1 innings. It was also Skenes' first time working on regular rest, and he still hasn't thrown more than 75 pitches in a start. I don't expect to see him until we see that season-high pitch count get closer to 90, at least. And, in fairness, that could come in his next start, so keep him stashed! | | Monday's standouts | | Zack Wheeler, Phillies vs. SF: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 11 K – He's an ace, doing what aces do, but this might actually be the best version of Wheeler we've seen. He has a career-high strikeout rate, he's giving up less hard contact than ever, and though he barely needed it today, his splitter has been a real weapon so far, with a 33% whiff rate and .149 expected wOBA allowed. As if he needed another weapon. | | Cole Ragans, Royals vs. MIL: 6 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K – 19 whiffs on 95 pitches, including nine with his changeup. Whether he can hold up to a full season as a starter remains to be seen, but I don't think there's any doubting Ragans is an ace right now. | | Walker Buehler, Dodgers vs. MIA: 4 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 4 K – In the final start of his minor-league rehab assignment, Buehler averaged just 92.9 mph with his four-seamer, down 2.3 mph from the last time he pitched in the majors, a pretty big red flag for a guy coming back from his second Tommy John surgery. In his debut Monday, he was at 95.9 mph, which feels a lot more important than the middling results against a bad Miami lineup. As Buehler continues to shake the rust off, I assume he'll get the feel for his various secondaries, and the fact that he has his velocity back already makes me optimistic he'll get there. Buy. | | Justin Steele, Cubs vs. SD: 4.2 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K – This wasn't the most impressive start you'll ever see, but for a guy who got hurt in his first outing of the season and then made just one appearance on his rehab stint (a 3.1-inning one, at that!) I'm not really going to worry too much about it. My expectations for Steele remain quite high now that he's healthy, and nothing I saw here could have changed that, especially since his velocity was where it needed to be. | | Jack Flaherty, Tigers @CLE: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – Flaherty's velocity was up to 94.4 mph with his four-seamer Monday, the second-highest it's been this season after last week's game against the Cardinals. That's a very good sign, as are the nine swinging strikes with the pitch – he also added five with his slider. The slider and curveball have been playing up all season, but with the way his fastball has looked the past couple of starts, the ceiling looks really high right now. I don't fully believe he can keep this up, but if he can, Flaherty looks like a must-start pitcher right now, something he hasn't been since 2021. | | Yu Darvish , Padres @CHC: 5 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – You'd like to see Darvish pitching deeper into games, as he has gone more than five innings just once in seven starts so far. He was pulled after 83 pitches Monday, and given his deep arsenal, it doesn't seem like he's the type of pitcher who should need to be shielded from the third time through the order like this. Hopefully the Padres are just playing it safe with Darvish after he came back from the IL, because he's pitching very well otherwise, with a 2.94 ERA and 1.10 WHIP right now. I think there might be a buy-low window here, but I'm not exactly beating down doors to add him right now. | | Mitch Keller, Pirates vs. LAA: 9 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – A start like this is why I was hesitant to give up on Keller amid his slow start, though I do have to point out that, while the results were tremendous, Keller remains pretty underwhelming. He garnered 57 swings on his 109 pitches today and had just seven whiffs, which is about as pitch-to-contact-y as you can get. The contact here was weak, something Keller has a knack for. But it's still hard to get excited about a guy with a 4.41 ERA, 4.12 FIP, and 21% strikeout rate. He's fine, I'm just not sure he's much more than that. | | Triston McKenzie, Guardians vs. DET: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 6 K – McKenzie has gone out over the past four starts and given us reasons to not drop him, which isn't nothing after he opened the season with five strikeouts and 12 walks in his first three starts. But I'm still waiting for a reason to really get excited about him, and I haven't really seen it yet – he has yet to give us a start with more than five innings and more than a strikeout per inning, for example. We'll take a 2.57 ERA and 25 strikeouts over 21 innings in his past four starts, but I'm still mostly underwhelmed by even the good starts right now. | | Sean Manaea, Mets @STL: 6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 1 K – Manaea's ERA is sitting at a very useful 3.31 after this one, but I'm really struggling to generate any excitement about him, what with the 20.4% strikeout rate and 12.5% walk rate even after today's one-walk showing. He's a decent streamer, especially for points leagues, but I don't think Manaea is anything more than that. | | Mason Black, Giants @PHI: 4.1 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 4 K – My expectations weren't high for Black in his MLB debut, but I'm still kind of aghast at the Giants handling of him here. Black entered Monday's start with a season-high of just 71 pitches, as they've really treated him with kid's gloves in Triple-A so far. And then they call him up and ask him to throw 84 pitches against a very good Phillies lineup in his very first start? This guy's career-high in pitches as a professional is just 86 and they nearly let him reach that while facing the heart of the Phillies order for a third time. Again, I didn't really expect much from Black, and I didn't see much here to suggest there are significantly better days ahead from him, but the Giants did him a disservice, too. | | Jhoan Duran, RP, Twins – That's now two outings in a row where Duran has worked the eighth inning, something he never did in consecutive outings a year ago. So, if you are the worrying type – and, judging from our emails and Twitter comments, there are plenty of you out there – there's something to be worried about. But I would just remind you that Duran got the save in his first two outings back from the IL, so I don't think there's much there. The Twins are shorthanded in the bullpen with Brock Stewart on the IL, and they're being more aggressive about using Duran against the heart of the order, rather than just saving him for the ninth. He should still get the majority of the team's saves, it just might not be 100% of them right now. Don't panic. | | Robert Suarez , RP, Padres – We didn't really know who the Padres closer would even be until the season started, but Suarez has put any questions about that to bed with his play so far. He got his second five-out save of the season Monday after not pitching in almost a week, and he's now 11 for 11 with 14 strikeouts and four walks in 15.1 innings of work. You'd like to see more strikeouts than that, but with Suarez's leaning into a 90% fastball usage so far this season, that may not happen. Still, it's impossible to complain about the results right now, even if you can make a pretty compelling case that he should be viewed as a sell-high candidate as well. | | Freddie Freeman, 1B, Dodgers – When you watch Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani putting up multi-hit games almost every time out and sporting OPSes in the 1.000-plus range, it can be a little frustrating if you've got Freddie Freeman to see him hitting third behind them sporting relatively mundane numbers – I say "relatively" because he entered Monday hitting .292, albeit with a 162-game pace fo just 78 runs, 13 homers, and 92 RBI. But you shouldn't let that disappointment force you to do anything silly, like selling Freeman – his .398 expected wOBA is actually just .010 below last year's mark, in a league where the average wOBA is down .008. He's going to be just fine. | | | | | | | | UEFA Champions League | | NWSL | Today and tomorrow at 3 PM ET, watch the matches that will decide who moves on to the UEFA Champions League Final, with PSG vs. Dortmund today, streaming on Paramount+, and Real Madrid vs. Bayern tomorrow, on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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