| | | | Thursday, January 4, 2024 | | We still don't know exactly which teams will and won't be resting starters in Week 18, but we've gotten a bit of clarity in that regard. We can expect both sides of the 49ers-Rams game to rest key starters, something both coaches have confirmed, with Sam Darnold and Carson Wentz squaring off in a matchup that might have seemed more exciting five years ago. | | The Chiefs will also rest some of their starters, as will the Browns; the Ravens haven't committed to it yet, but it seems likely with the No. 1 seed locked in. Jamey Eisenberg's Start 'Em & Sit 'Em columns for Week 18 have some more thoughts on potential rest candidates, as well as who might be able to take advantage of them, so make sure you check those out below if you're still playing in Week 18. | Start 'Em & Sit 'Em: QB | RB | WR
Position Previews: QB | RB | WR | TE | | Now that that's out of the way, let's get back to our way-too-early look at the 2024 rankings. Yesterday, we covered the QB and RB positions, and now we're moving on to wide receiver and tight end. Here's how that looks for me with, oh, nine months left until the season kicks off. | | | | Too-Early WR Rankings | | | | I'm not quite at the point where I'm ready to put together an overall top-12 and project next year's first-round, but I'm starting to think we might have as many as eight wide receivers who belong in Round 1. Partially, that's because the 2024 RB crop looks pretty underwhelming, while no tight ends look worthy of a first-round pick anymore (more on that shortly). | | But it's also because the state of WR is very, very strong. At least six of them look like absolute locks for the first round, and I might take four of them before I even consider the second RB in 2024. There's definitely a drop-off after the first half-dozen names, but I think the next tier might be wide open, with as many as 12 names in discussion for the final six spots here, if not more. The early rounds of next year's drafts might be more WR-heavy than ever before. Here's why: | | 1. Justin Jefferson – It was a tough season for Jefferson, but it's worth keeping things in perspective. Take out the two games he left with injuries, and here's what Jefferson's 17-game pace looks like: 124 catches for 2,008 yards and 10 touchdowns. He averaged 22.2 PPR points in those healthy games, just behind Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb's marks, but Jefferson also caught passes from four quarterbacks this season. Kirk Cousins' status as a free agent does leave some uncertainty here about whether Jefferson belongs in the top spot, but I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt his healthy performance over the past two seasons deserves. | | 2. Tyreek Hill – But if you want to put Hill at No. 1, you'll get no complaints from me. He's played 28 games across two seasons with Tua Tagovailoa , and Hill is averaging 22.8 PPR points per game in those games, with a 17-game pace of 125 catches, 1,897 yards, and 12 touchdowns and a 31.2% target share from Tagovailoa. There isn't any good case against Hill being the No. 1 option, except that he's going to be 30 in March and has to start showing signs of slowing down at some point, right? There's only so much that fear can do to drop Hill, given how absurdly productive he's been in this offense, but when you're operating in the rarified air these guys are, you're inevitably splitting hairs. | | | | 3. CeeDee Lamb – Lamb has a case for the No. 1 spot, as well! He averaged 23.1 PPR points per game entering Week 18, and that kind of undersells how absurdly dominant he's been for most of the season. Lamb had just two 100-yard performances in the season's first six games, as the Cowboys opened the season in a bunch of blowouts and with a surprisingly conservative offense. They opened things up after the bye, and Lamb was unstoppable, scoring at least 15 PPR points in 11 straight games to close out the season, while averaging 27.6 PPR points per game after the bye. He had never really shown that kind of upside before, and I'm certainly not expecting 25-PPG production from him in 2024. But Lamb cemented himself as one of the game's most explosive playmakers, he's tied to an elite QB, and is in an offense that has no reason to change its approach after an incredibly successful season. A 25-year-old Lamb looks like one of the best bets in Fantasy. | | 4. Ja'Marr Chase – It speaks to how good Chase is that he's averaged 20.5 and 17.1 PPR points over the past two seasons despite circumstances conspiring to hold him back in both seasons. In 2022, it was a serious hip injury that cost him four straight games mid-season, and this season … well, a lot went wrong. There was Joe Burrow 's calf injury early in the season that derailed the entire offense for the season's first month, and then, of course, Burrow's season-ending wrist injury in November. And then Chase suffered a separated shoulder in Week 15 that kept him out of one game and limited him in Week 17. But there was a five-game stretch where Burrow looked like himself and Chase was healthy, and he averaged 24.6 PPR points per game. Chase might be the best wide receiver in the game, attached to an elite QB, and both are in their primes and that he falls this far in the rankings is a testament to how incredible the guys in front of him are. | | 5. Amon-Ra St. Brown – I think there is probably a tier drop here, but that might genuinely be giving St. Brown short shrift after the season he's having. St. Brown put up 112 catches for 1,371 yards and nine touchdowns in 15 games, and he scored at least 15 PPR points in 12 of those games – only Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and Christian McCaffrey had more games of 15-plus points than St. Brown did. St. Brown is more in the Keenan Allen mold than the guys ahead of him, but he's also increased his yards per catch every year, to a very respectable 12.2 in 2023, reflecting a few more downfield opportunities without an appreciable impact on his still-stellar catch rate (over 70% each season). There should be zero controversy over St. Brown being a first-round pick in 2024. | | | | 6. A.J. Brown – For a six-game stretch, Brown was the best wide receiver in the world, putting up 49 catches for 831 yards and five touchdowns between Weeks 3 and 8, averaging 27.0 PPR points per game. Since then? He has just one 100-yard game and two touchdowns in eight games. His overall numbers still have Brown at WR6 for the season in points per game, right around where he was in 2023. I could see him taking another step forward to that 20-PPG range, but I can't make the case for ranking him ahead of the guys who have already gotten there. Brown is at the top of the next tier, and it might be a tier of one. | | 7. Puka Nacua – If Nacua was even a second-round pick coming off a rookie season as WR7 in points per game, would he be a top-five WR? Top-three? Nacua has 284.4 PPR points with one game left, the fifth-most by a rookie wide receiver in NFL history; he drops to sixth with 17.8 points per game, just behind Ja'Marr Chase's 17.92-point showing in 2021. Nacua has been a perfect fit for Sean McVay's offense, and he's won in so many different ways – inside and outside; on short, designed touches or down the field – that his draft status is the only real reason to be skeptical at this point. Some will be, but I'm buying in fully. | | 8. Garrett Wilson – The frustrating thing about watching the Jets – you know, aside from … watching the Jets – was watching Wilson try, week after week, to overcome the dreadful QB play he was saddled with. That he got to 1,000 yards, even on miserable efficiency, is a testament to Wilson's greatness. I'm not certain Wilson is on the Lamb/Chase tier as a talent, but I think he probably isn't far off. Of course, ranking him here is putting an awful lot of pressure on a 40-year-old quarterback coming off a ruptured Achilles and a coaching staff that has given us little reason to believe they can elevate an offense. But it's also a bet on a guy who sure looks like an elite talent finally getting the opportunity to show it for a full season. | | 9. D.J. Moore – Fading Moore in draft season was one of my biggest regrets this season, and I won't make the same mistake this time around. There are some QB concerns here, with the Bears holding the No. 1 pick and Justin Fields' future very much in doubt. But Moore is a testament to the value of betting on elite talents eventually figuring it out, and while the Fields-Moore connection has been very good, Fields still isn't an ideal passer. Could Moore be even better with Caleb Williams or Drake Maye at QB in 2024? It's fun to think about the possibility, though as with all rookie QBs, you shouldn't necessarily expect it. | | 10. Michael Pittman Jr. – Pittman has turned into a kind of Amon-Ra St. Brown/Keenan Allen-lite, a high-volume possession receiver with a high floor and perhaps a lower ceiling than some other WRs in his tier. There are questions about how likely he is to sustain that 100-catch level with Anthony Richardson at QB, but I think there are reasons to be pretty optimistic. For one, he's earned a high target share with just about every QB he's played with, and that includes Richardson, who targeted him on 26% of his passes before injuries ended his season early. For another thing, I think a fully healthy Richardson is going to lead a much better version of the Colts offense, which should lead to more scoring opportunities even if the overall pass volume is a little lower. I don't think we've seen the best of Pittman yet. | | 11. Stefon Diggs – I'll admit, I have no clue what to do with Diggs right now. The Bills passing game has been derailed in the second half of the season, and he doesn't have a game with more than 75 yards since Week 9 – he only has one game with 50 or more in that span, as well. Did he hit the wall right when he turned 30? We can't write the possibility off, and it does feel like Diggs' days in Buffalo might be numbered. I don't want to give up on one of the best receivers of his generation after a bad half-season, but it feels like he's going to be an awfully risky pick in 2024 if he doesn't have a big stretch here to close out the season (including the playoffs). His value could swing dramatically over the next month or so. | | 12. Mike Evans – I have no idea what expectations are going to be like for Evans, who is entering his age-31 season showing absolutely no signs of slowing down. He's been at 8.9 yards per target or better every season since 2017, so his 9.6 Y/T doesn't look like much of an outlier. The one place we could expect regression is with touchdowns, as his 13 lead the NFL heading into Week 18, and while they aren't a career-high, his previous two seasons with at least 13 came with the Bucs throwing for 40-plus in each season; they have 28 in 2023. I'm giving Evans the No. 12 spot here ahead of, among others (and in roughly this order), Keenan Allen, Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Chris Olave, Amari Cooper, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Rashee Rice, and potentially Nico Collins and Tank Dell. | | Too-Early TE Rankings | | | | For the first time in years, there's legitimate debate about the top of the tight end position, though this time it's not because someone emerged as a legitimate contender for Travis Kelce's throne. It's more because Kelce himself finally fell short of the incredibly high bar he's set, falling back to the pack with 14.8 PPR points per game, his worst showing since 2016. | | Now, that's not to say that there's nothing to be excited about at tight end. The position is arguably deeper than it's been in years, with a bunch of young players seemingly emerging from the pack of touchdown-or-bust options in 2023. Which of those might take Kelce's crown? I'm not ready to anoint anyone just yet, but there are a few contenders. Here's how I'm viewing things: | | 1. Travis Kelce – Kelce is clearly in decline, and the way the second half of his season has gone doesn't make it seem like that decline is slowing down at all. Like, Diggs, Kelce's value for 2024 could change a decent amount depending on how his playoffs go. But it's worth keeping things in perspective: He's still the top scorer at tight end on a per-game basis at 14.8, a full point clear of the next-best non-T.J. Hockenson option (Hockenson very well may have been the No. 1 player if not for the torn ACL that ended his season). Kelce is performing more like a WR2 than a WR1, and he's down to 10.5 points per game since his last 100-yard effort in Week 8. This very well may be the end. But I'm not quite ready to say he's been dethroned yet. | | 2. Sam LaPorta – LaPorta ended up being the perfect Hockenson replacement for the Lions offense, and he's all but certain to become just the third rookie tight end ever with more than 900 receiving yards – and, with 8.2 more points in Week 18, he'll break Mike Ditka's rookie record for tight ends (albeit with three more games than Ditka played). The point is, this is one of the best performances we've ever seen from a rookie tight end, and he's managed to remain pretty consistent throughout the season. There are, perhaps, some questions about how high the ceiling is here, but it wouldn't take much growth for him to hit the 1,000-yard mark and potentially perform like a low-end TE1. Quibbling about how high the ceiling here might be seems like missing the point. | | 3. Trey McBride – McBride's ascension kind of ran out of steam in Weeks 16 and 17, as he had just 79 combined yards in those two games. Still, it's worth appreciating what he's done since his Week 8 breakthrough: He's averaging seven catches for 69 yards on 8.8 targets per game over his past nine. McBride certainly looks the part of an elite receiving tight end, with his 6-foot-4, 246-pound frame and 4.61-second 40-yard dash, and if his yards per catch for the season (10.14) don't reflect that, I think we can probably chalk at least some of that up to the lack of other viable receiving options in this passing game. If you want to make the case for McBride at No. 2, I won't argue; if you want to make the case for him at No. 1, I'll defend your right to do so. | | 4. Mark Andrews – Take out Week 11, when he left with that season-ending leg injury, and Andrews was on pace for 81 catches, 984 yards, and 11 touchdowns. He was awesome, though the emergence of multiple other viable pass-catchers in Baltimore's offense did impact his usage – his 111-target pace over 17 games would have been his worst since 2020. It's starting to look like 2021 was a huge outlier for Andrews, who has otherwise been in the 50-60-yard-per-game range the past five seasons. He's still an awesome player, but I think we're aiming for more with the two guys ranked directly ahead of him. | | 5. George Kittle – I genuinely think Kittle is one of the toughest players in Fantasy to value at any position. If we were just ranking tight ends by who I think the best players are, Kittle might be No. 1. And, you might not have realized this, but he's first at the position in yards entering Week 18, the only 1,000-yard player so far; he's also tied for second in touchdowns with six. The problem? Seven different tight ends have more targets, while eight have more receptions. The 49ers may be reaching a point where they have to make a choice about which of their passing game weapons they can keep around long-term, and if they have to move on from, say, Brandon Aiyuk, Kittle could see an increase in targets. He's a high-floor option who might still have as much upside as anyone at the position if a few things break right. | | 6. Evan Engram – For a lot of reasons, Engram is probably going to be treated a lot more skeptically than his numbers probably deserve. Despite his athleticism, Engram has mostly been an underneath, move-the-chains kind of receiver, as he fell to a career-low 8.5 yards per catch. Of course, when you've got a guy catching 104 passes in 16 games, how many yards he gets on each one is less important. The problem is, can we expect a similar role from Engram? That's where a lot of the skepticism is going to come from, given how much time both Zay Jones and Christian Kirk missed this season. I tend to think Engram's role is likelier to shrink than to stay steady in 2024, and seeing as he's only TE5 in points per game despite the 104 catches, I think this is a reasonable spot for him. | | 7. David Njoku – The Joe Flacco experience has been incredibly rewarding for Njoku, who has averaged 18.6 PPR points per game in Flacco's five starts for the Browns. In his other 11 games, he averaged 10 points per game, so we're talking about a pretty significant drop off here. However, even in those other 11 games, he was on a 121-target pace, while playing with three different quarterbacks. We keep putting a ceiling on how good Njoku can be, and he keeps surpassing it. I don't expect him to top 2023, but it's not out of the question. | | 8. Dalton Kincaid – The Bills needed to find a way to move the ball down the field a bit more consistently, and Kincaid was part of that effort, emerging as the team's primary short-area target. That led to a solid role, but limited Fantasy appeal for most of the season, except for a five-game stretch where he averaged 14.2 PPR points per game with Dawson Knox out. It was a hint of what could be coming for Kincaid if he can emerge as the team's clear No. 2 target in 2024. That's less assured than we perhaps hoped it would be before the season, but a solid step forward in Year Two seems like a safe assumption. He may belong a lot closer to LaPorta and McBride than he is. | | 9. Kyle Pitts – After posting 1,026 yards as a rookie, Pitts needs 31 yards in Week 18 to beat that total over the past two seasons. And 31 yards is no sure thing – he's failed to reach even that meager total six times in 16 games this season. Pitts will still be just 23 when the 2024 season opens, so it's hard to write him off entirely. But he's been a pretty gigantic bust for Fantasy purposes so far in his career, and if the Falcons don't get an upgrade at QB (and head coach, if we're being honest), this will probably end up being too high. For now, I'll remain cautiously, though somewhat painfully optimistic. | | 10. T.J. Hockenson – Hockenson's torn ACL greatly complicates his 2024 outlook, especially since the timing of it very much puts his availability for the start of the season in doubt. But, if we get word that he might be ready for Week 1, Hockenson is going to climb more than a few spots. He won't be a sure thing even if that's the case, of course – players coming back from torn ACLs often need at least a few weeks, if not much longer, to get back up to full speed. Add in QB questions for the Vikings, and there's a lot that could go wrong. But, if it weren't for the injury, Hockenson would probably be the No. 1 option, so any kind of discount might be worth taking. | | 11. Dallas Goedert – Goeder struggled through a very disappointing season, despite his target volume actually creeping up a bit. He just wasn't nearly as efficient as he had been in the previous two seasons, going from over 10 yards per target to just 7.4 this season. Goedert does have that track record to point to, but he also turned 29 yesterday, so it might be asking too much to expect him to turn the clock back, especially as he's struggled to stay healthy since earning a full-time job. Goedert might just remain a tantalizingly frustrating option, someone with significant weekly upside, but maybe not enough consistency to be much more than a low-end TE1. That's a fine choice, but not someone worth reaching for. | | 12. Cole Kmet – Kmet took a nice step forward this season, but I'm not sure he's ever likely to be more than just a decent, low-end TE1. There's nothing wrong with that, it's just not a profile I have a ton of interest in paying up for. I suppose you could make a case for someone like Jake Ferguson, Michael Mayer or Luke Musgrave developing into a higher-upside option and you wouldn't get much argument from me here. Kmet is just kind of a default choice here. | | | | | | | | Pick Six | | MaxPreps App | Looking for your fix of NFL news and analysis? Look no further. Host Katie Mox and a cast of characters get you up to speed with what's trending in the NFL world so that you're always in the know.
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