Didn’t we just go through a hellish election year? Well, buckle up again.
Every year in Jersey is an election year, and this is a big one. One of the biggest in decades. We’re talking Taylor Swift big. Shohei Ohtani big. "Severance" big.
It’s the race for New Jersey's next governor, a job that packs power and patronage unmatched by any state capital in America. And everyone with a name — and some whose names I hardly knew before — are lining up for it.
With Phil Murphy in his last year, we have primary scraps between Democrats of all shapes and sizes, Republicans who hate Donald Trump and those who worship him, big-city mayors, lawmakers from Trenton and Washington, a union leader, a shock jock, and even a standup comic.
All bets are off. Almost everyone has a path to victory. Party bosses are sidelined (a little bit, at least) because the infamous county line is gone and they can no longer relegate candidates they don’t like to “Siberia” on primary ballots. Republicans are banking on both Murphy fatigue and history. No party has held the governor's office here for three straight terms since just before The Beatles arrived on our shores (that's 1961). But the daily Trump-filled drama from D.C. and still-shaky economy are keeping everyone on their toes and making Democrats feel less anxious. Just a little.
Jersey has a big national spotlight shining on all of it because only one other state — Virginia — is holding a governor's contest this year. That means we're a a litmus test for how voters view the first 10 months of Trump's second term.
The massive field for the June 10 primary was finalized Monday. Republican truck driver turned former lawmaker Ed Durr was the only one to drop out. Eleven others — six Democrats, five Republicans — will battle it out over the next 10 weeks.
With TV ads starting to spread, here's my breakdown of 2025: New Jersey Gubernatorial Madness, based on what I'm hearing from sources ...
DEMOCRATS
RAS BARAKA,Newark mayor
Superpowers: Leads Jersey's largest city and is vying to become the first Black governor in a diverse state ... Has left-leaning policies that appeal to progressive primary voters and aggressively attacked Trump — especially on immigration — at a time polls show Democrats want to fight back harder ... Proved in the first debate he's good with words (after all, he's the son of poet Amiri Baraka) ... It's all helped him unexpectedly emerge as one of the primary's top two contenders.
Kryptonite: Another Essex County candidate, Mikie Sherrill, has the backing — and money — of establishment Democrats ... While Democrats privately see Baraka as the one who could draw the most votes away from her, their fear is Baraka is too far-left to win a largely moderate state in November.
STEVE FULOP, Jersey City mayor
Superpowers: First candidate out of the gate and running an anti-establishment campaign in the vein of Andy Kim's Senate victory last year ... Active on social media and the town hall circuit ... Has rolled out a string of detailed policy positions and fielded his own slate of Assembly candidates, who have a real shot now that the line is kaput ... Has raised $3 million so far ... Would be Jersey's first Jewish governor ... Considered a real surprise not to be counted out in rage-against-the-machine era of politics.
Kryptonite: Can he steal enough of the progressive lane to box out Baraka, or will they split the vote? ... Has also made enough enemies among top Democrats who could work overtime to stunt him. And some view his outsider stances as a cynical ploy from a career politician ... Social media excitement doesn't always equal votes.
JOSH GOTTHEIMER, U.S. Representative from Bergen County
Superpowers: Raises more money than God ($3 million so far and counting), which he's using to plaster the region with TV ads. That means a lot in a state sandwiched between New York and Philly, with no media market of its own ... He's a Democrat promising to cut your taxes in a tough economy ... Would be Jersey's first Jewish governor.
Kryptonite: Insiders were expecting this to be a Congress-colored race between him and Sherrill, but Gottheimer hasn't taken off in polls ... Many progressives don't like him, which could be a dagger in the primary ... Critics doubt the validity of his tax-cut plan.
MIKIE SHERRILL, U.S. Representative from Essex County
Superpowers: The lone woman in the race, aiming to become only the second female to become Jersey's governor … Has the biggest array of the state's powerful Dems supporting her and won the majority of county party endorsements ... Insiders like her bullet points in a general election: former Navy helicopter pilot, former federal prosecutor, mother of four ... Beginning to go after Trump more and hasn't even started putting out TV ads yet.
Kryptonite: As we learned from Tammy Murphy last year, being the establishment pick can backfire badly in this climate. And how much do those endorsements even matter without the line? ... Some insiders fear GOP critics could attack her as Murphy administration part 2, noting players in the governor's orbit support her ... Some worry she's too moderate or even too stilted to truly catch fire.
SEAN SPILLER, president of the New Jersey Education Association teacher’s union, ex Montclair mayor
Superpowers: Money. Lots of it (at least $35 million worth) because he has the support of super PAC of his employer, the state's largest teacher's union. That has funded the many billboards, mailers, and TV ads you have may seen and helped him show up higher than expected in polls .... Born in Jamaica, he would be the state’s first Black governor ... Vows to focus on education.
Kryptonite: He still has low name ID, which is why you're seeing all those ads ... A number of teachers and good-government advocates aren't happy he is running a campaign funded by union dues. ... Didn't qualify for the primary debate stage under the state's matching funds program because outside groups and not his campaign are raising the money.
STEVE SWEENEY, former state Senate president
Superpowers: Once one of state’s most powerful elected officials until he was unexpectedly toppled by Ed Durr, then an unknown truck driver, four years ago. Ironically may have gotten more name ID because of it ... Running as a moderate, even conservative-leaning Democrat on immigration and taxes, and some Republicans see him as the toughest general-election opponent ... Lone Democrat from South Jersey in the race, with the most county party endorsements below Trenton, which could make him a threat in a splintered primary ... Top ally and benefactor, powerbroker George Norcross, is no longer under indictment.
Kryptonite: His 2021 loss was historic and stripped him of his power … Still disliked by many public-worker unions and progressive Democrats after reworking pensions and other policies in collaboration with Chris Christie … The only Dem in the race with net-negative favorability marks in a recent poll ... South Jersey's voter rolls aren't as robust as the north's.
REPUBLICANS
JUSTIN BARBERA,contractor
Superpowers: Impressively managed to file 2,817 petition signatures to run, even after the state upped the requirement this year from 1,000 to 2,500.
Kryptonite: Nobody knows who he is, other than that he's a contractor from Burlington County who ran unsuccessfully as an independent last year for Andy Kim's old seat in the House ... We get a pie-in-the-sky candidate like this every cycle.
JON BRAMNICK,state senator from Union County
Superpowers: Centrist who criticizes Trump in a blue-leaning state. Gov. Murphy recently told me Bramnick is a vintage Jersey Republican that Democrats would least want to face this fall ... His law firm’s billboard dot Jersey highways and he’s spent years moonlighting as a standup comic (no joke) ... Would be Jersey's first Jewish governor.
Kryptonite: Likely a tough go getting to the general election as a moderate with the growing, Trump-loving Republican base these days. The GOP primary has become a knife fight over loyalty to the president, especially after his surprising showing in Jersey last year ... So far, hasn't registered high up in public-opinion polls.
JACK CIATTARELLI, ex-Assemblyman from Somerset County
Superpowers: Has spent years building name recognition. A third time running for gov could be the charm after coming just 3 points away from unseating Murphy in 2021 … A moderate, fiscally focused lawmaker during his time in Trenton, he's upped his praise of Trump in recent years, which could help him with the GOP base. Even posed for a photo with Trump during a meeting in Bedminster last weekend ... Has led easily in most polls so far. Many Republican insiders (and Democrats) say this is his primary — and maybe even general election — to lose.
Kryptonite: Already been bashed by the right as an establishment pick who called Trump a "charlatan" 10 years ago. They also note he has already lost twice ... If Trump endorses his closest opponent, Bill Spadea, it could end his frontrunner status ... Recent embrace and photo-op with Trump could come back to haunt him in the general if the president keeps slipping in polls here.
MARIO KRANJAC, former mayor of Englewood Cliffs
Superpowers: A conservative who casts himself as the one most aligned with the president. Though The Star-Ledger once derided him as a "Trumpy mayor," he now wears that badge with pride.
Kryptonite: Little name ID. He also filed only 35 more signatures than the 2,500 required to get on the ballot. That means it's possible Spadea, another Trump-centric candidate, could challenge his petitions. Kranjac's team said it's still waiting for more signatures to be approved. Spadea's camp sees Kranjac as a an attempt to siphon votes away from Spadea.
BILL SPADEA, former radio host for NJ 101.5-FM
Superpowers: A one-time congressional candidate and TV personality who spent a decade hosting a morning drive-time show on the state's largest radio station. Gave him a mighty big megaphone to attract conservative primary voters ... Pitching himself as an unapologetic Trump backer and grassroots outsider who'd upend the system. The president was a guest on his show last year and thanked Spadea for his support while chiding chief rival Ciattarelli ... Has polled a distant second so far, but a Trump endorsement could catapult him.
Kryptonite: Left his radio show in January ... Also criticized Trump in the past, calling his first term a failure. I'm told Ciattarelli allies have let the president know that ... Many Republican insiders say he’d be kiss of death for the general election, say his controversial views on issues such as COVID-19 and the 2020 election are too far-right.
