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| Monday, September 2, 2024 |
| Yo! Welcome to Week 1! Starting today, for the next four months, I will be showing up in your inbox every day of the week except for Saturdays. Let's party. |
| With real-life regular season NFL football on our doorstep, I decided that today's newsletter will be a simple hype builder. It's Labor Day. Our drafts are (mostly) done. Whether you worked hard this summer to learn everything that you could about each player and team and Fantasy football strategy imaginable or you just showed up to your draft and thought about Fantasy football for the first time a week ago, draft season is over and the real season is here. Every Monday for the rest of the calendar year will bring new information to learn about, so on this one, I wanted to just have some fun. |
| On that note, check out this 'YAC King' Twitter thread that I created! It's a celebration of the league's most-awesome creators of yards after the catch. Of course, Deebo Samuel wears the crown, but there are a lot of other names in the top 15 that may surprise you. I ranked the top 15, along with eight honorable mentions, and still, it felt like I was leaving out a lot of incredible players. Garrett Wilson didn't make it! DJ Moore didn't make it! Those are two of my favorite players to watch, but I really don't know if they are among the 15 best YAC creators in the NFL right now. The league is stocked-full of super fun talent. And after 2024, we very well might be adding Malik Nabers or Jonathon Brooks or Brock Bowers to that list. |
| I am so excited for Week 1! We are so close! |
| After today's newsletter, I will be getting you ready for the Week 1 Fantasy games. Matchup information, rankings, DFS plays, all of it is coming your way soon. The legendary Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis will be joining Dan and me to forecast Week 1 on Beyond the Boxscore. That conversation will be published on the FFT Express podcast feed on Thursday. Everything that you need to "succeed" in Week 1 will be in your inbox shortly! |
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| If you want to support Dan and me, please subscribe to the FFT Express stream and leave a rating/review that mentions our show! There's already one episode live on the feed, if you missed last week's recording with Matthew Berry and the Fantasy Life crew. |
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| Today, the focus is less on how to succeed in Week 1 and more on how to enjoy Week 1! |
| A huge Week 1 sleeper |
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| One way that Week 1 could be a lot of fun is if we are treated to a lot of Jaleel McLaughlin opportunities. Denver's undrafted Year 2 RB made the honorable mention (YAC Prince) in my YAC Kings Twitter thread -- you can watch a cut-up of his 2023 YAC creation here. |
| I really think we might see a big pass-game role for McLaughlin with Samaje Perine now a member of the Kansas City Chiefs. Check out this insane stat, courtesy of the great Scott Barrett: |
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| What I am most looking forward to in Week 1 |
| Jaguars at Dolphins |
| Brian Thomas Jr., Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Travis Etienne, De'Von Achane. This is an electric group of offensive players set to meet in Week 1. What new wrinkles might Mike McDaniel have in store for us? How is a healthy Trevor Lawrence going to look? And just how nutty of an encore might we be in store for after Achane's historically efficient rookie season? |
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| I don't mean to overhype you, don't lose your life savings betting the over in this game or anything. This is just the game that I am the most excited to see. There's a very real chance that it sucks, though. I have little faith in Jacksonville's play-callers. But Miami's defense may warrant even less faith. Who knows? We'll see shortly! For what it's worth, the total (50.5 points) for this game is the second-highest of Week 1. |
| Rams at Lions |
| From a real-life perspective, it's going to be tough to find a more fun matchup than this. Dan Campbell and Ben Johnson vs. Sean McVay. The Jared Goff-Matthew Stafford "revenge game" vs. their former teams. Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and of course, we cannot forget the identities for these two hard-nosed football teams -- bullyball, ground-and-pound, old-school rough-housin' run-heavy football. |
| I'm also extremely excited for the 90% route participation and two touchdowns incoming for late-round Fantasy TE gem Colby Parkinson! |
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| Texans at Colts |
| The Texans are 2.5-point road favorites! That's some serious respect from Vegas for second-year QB C.J. Stroud. Or maybe it's disrespect for second-year QB Anthony Richardson? |
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| We just have not yet seen it with A-Rich. His 2024 preseason showed us a player who again looked very much like a work in progress. And that really is the only expectation that makes any sense at this stage in the game. Richardson's Fantasy average draft position got gassed all the way up to QB5 (which still was a gamble that made sense to place, in my opinion), but we have yet to see a cohesive version of Shane Steichen's Colts offense with Richardson running the show for an extended stretch. |
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| What will Richardson's 2024 debut bring? Your guess is as good as mine, but I do think that Vegas is probably right about him playing catch-up against Stroud. Indianapolis defensive coordinator Gus Bradley is known for using Cover-3 more than anyone. The Colts had a league-high 55% Cover-3 rate last year. Cover-3 is a single-high zone coverage that typically results in more targets for an offense's WR1. |
| Gus Bradley-led defenses also blitz at one of the lowest rates in the NFL. I just don't know if that's going to work against the Texans. The Colts can get pressure without bringing the blitz, so really, this will all be about how well a healthier Houston offensive line can hold their individual assignments against just three or four rushers on most plays. |
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| I freaking love digging into this matchup data. But we'll have more time for that later in the week. Just vibes today, sorry to get a bit sidetracked there. |
| It is Nico Collins SZN, we all know this! I just listened to Hayden Winks rank all 32 NFL defenses, and he placed the Indianapolis Colts at 29th. Hayden put it simply , "If a team has a good WR1, it's pretty much over for the Colts." Nico Collins could not ask for a better matchup to begin his fourth season. Hopefully Richardson and the Colts can keep the game close so that Houston keeps the foot on the pedal with the passing attack. |
| Cardinals at Bills |
| Yo, this one could be really fun. It also might be over in the blink of an eye if both teams lean heavily into the ground game and keep the clock moving. I am so excited to see what Marvin Harrison Jr. can unlock for Drew Petzing in his second season calling plays for Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. |
| Friday Night Football: Packers vs. Eagles |
| This Jayden Reed YAC highlight reel will get you psyched to watch Matt LaFleur's offense on Friday. The Packers are one of the most fun teams in football. And, of course, it's tough to beat a mean green Eagles team featuring A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Saquon Barkley with Jalen Hurts and Kellen Moore piloting the ship. |
| How will the two biggest free agent RB signings affect their new offenses? I'm lowkey in on Josh Jacobs to outscore Barkley straight-up in 2024. I feel like we may be writing Jacobs off for dead a bit too soon. |
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What does Jayden Daniels have in store for us next?
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| Last we saw Daniels, he was throwing 40 touchdowns and running for 1,100+ yards and 10 more touchdowns on his way to the Heisman trophy. Well, actually, we've seen him even more recently than that, and he was torching NFL defenses (it was preseason, no doubt; just in case anyone was not aware of that, it was preseason) in the same way that he did at LSU in 2023. |
| What does this electric talent have in store for us next? Probably a lot of sacks. Maybe some wild and hilariously bad decisions, especially as an open-field runner who seems to enjoy absorbing big hits from linebackers. I truly have no idea what to expect. Almost definitely a lot of scrambles. |
| After a long summer of online speculation and all sorts of takes about Daniels, this satirical bit (is it?) from Denny Carter hit like umm... I'm not sure how far I can push the boundaries in this space, I surely can't make references to anything that is not legal. The bit hit like a linebacker laying a good clean hit on a soon-to-bounce-right-back-up Jayden Daniels after a 30-yard scramble. Good analytics just do hit different! |
| Daniels and the Kliff Kingsbury-led Washington Commanders take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1. The game has a healthy-enough 44.5-point total, with Vegas listing Washington as a 3.5-point road dog. We could see some points in this one! |
| On the Tampa side of the ball, I am of course excited to watch Jalen McMillan go to work. And I'm extremely curious what the backfield playing time and touch dispersal between Rachaad White and rookie Bucky Irving might look like. |
| I am way too stoked to watch Will Levis take on the Chicago Bears hype train |
| DJ Moore was the most gut-wrenching omission in my YAC King top-15 list. He's fine with it, though. Have you watched Hard Knocks? Moore is the chillest, most unbothered and low-key superstar WR in the NFL. He knows who he is. Moore has flown under the radar for his whole career. |
| Hard Knocks offered a behind-the-scenes look at Chicago's organizational decision to pay Moore this offseason, before then calling Moore in from the practice field to Bears GM Ryan Poles' office. It was so dope. |
| Poles on re-signing Chicago's star WR1: "The why behind it is the dependability, the durability, the production has been so consistent. We feel really good about this so that he can just play free and take care of his family. That's what it's all about." |
| Moore absolutely deserved his preemptive contract extension and will get another chance to show why against a susceptible Week 1 opponent in the Tennessee Titans secondary. Caleb Williams somehow looked even better than expected during the preseason. This could be so fun! Please don't get in the way, Shane Waldron. |
| If the Bears put a big point total on the board, we're going to see some heroics from the mayo man. I'm not sure how that will go. The Bears have a legit top-10 defense that may even be top five. The Titans have a lot of talent on the offensive side of the ball. This will be a very interesting initial test for Tennessee's offense. |
| Some Fantasy football-related clues that I'll be on the lookout for in Week 1 |
| We hit the mayo man portion of hype-building, which feels like a good point to slow down. Let's get grounded here and consider some actual actionable insights that may be gleaned this weekend. |
| Will Xavier Worthy run a more varied route tree than he did this preseason? Specifically, I'm curious if Andy Reid will design many pre-snap motion looks for his rookie weapon. Will DeVonta Smith be the primary pre-snap motion man working from the slot in Kellen Moore's offense?What on Earth can we expect from Green Bay's receiving room? A rotation? Any two-receiver set opportunities for Jayden Reed? Does Dontayvion Wicks get to ball?Does Trey Benson get some run, or is this again James Conner's backfield?Does MHJ get designed targets, or is he just going to work as a straight-up A.J. Brown type of alpha field-stretcher who creates his own luck?Is Keon Coleman the clear-cut WR1? That's what it looked like when Buffalo's starters were on the field during the preseason. If so, can he win routes consistently enough to demand a Fantasy-relevant target share?Is Ray Davis going to play a role right away? What type of creativity might we see from Shane Waldron and Brian Callahan-led offenses this year? The Titans-Bears matchup definitely has my interest. How much pre-snap motion, play action, and three-receiver sets will these offenses use? What will the backfield rotations look like? How about the pace of play? There's a ton that we might learn in this game, hopefully we see some competent offense so as to potentially illuminate a few early-season answers for us.Will any backs mix in for the Texans or Colts? We could legitimately see league-high RB snap rates for Joe Mixon and Jonathan Taylor. Is the Tank Bigsby preseason resurgence real? What about the Brian Thomas Jr. hype? Is Christian Kirk truly going to watch from the sidelines when Jacksonville goes to two-receiver sets?Is De'Von Achane going to see an expanded role as a receiver? Will Jonnu Smith play enough to matter? Is Jaylen Wright only an insurance policy at this stage in the game?Can we believe in Dave Canales and Bryce Young?Is Klint Kubiak the savior that Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed deserve? What is the Sam Darnold experience going to be like? In Kevin O'Connell we trust.Does Tyrone Tracy get to ball or does he have to wait for the wheels to fall off in New York?Are the Raiders going to go ground-heavy? I think we may see a more balanced approach than many expect. If that's the case, is it just over for Zamir White drafters right away? I don't think he's going to play much on passing downs. Is Ladd McConkey only going to play in three-receiver sets?Might the universe actually allow J.K. Dobbins to have fun and play football this year?Is Jaxon Smith-Njigba's role going to be expanded in Year 2? Or is he again going to watch Tyler Lockett from the sideline when Seattle goes to two-receiver sets?Does Marvin Mims get to be part of Denver's offense this year? How about Jaleel McLaughlin? Greg Dulcich? I'm getting greedy at this point. Could be cool, though! How's Javonte Williams feeling? Dare we say he might be "back?" "So back," even? "Never been more back?"Is the Dallas Cowboys offense about to faceplant? Myles Garrett in Week 1, whew. Good luck!Do any Cowboys running backs matter?Do Ben Sinnott or Luke McCaffrey have roles out of the gate, or is it going to be a slow roll for Washington's rooks?What does Liam Coen's run game look like in Tampa? How much of last year's massive role does Rachaad White retain? Is Blake Corum actually the Rams RB to roster for Fantasy? Or did we perhaps overreact to news that Kyren Williams will handle punt returns to open the season?Is Jameson Williams going to see an expanded role or continue to be deployed as a deep threat decoy? Is Arthur Smith about to inflict Kyle Pitts-ification onto Pat Freiermuth? Any time that you have a multi-talented former top-60 pick at tight end, you simply must relegate them to the bench on one-third of the offensive plays, I guess. I've never been an NFL head coach. I also have never had a billionaire father, I suppose maybe I simply cannot understand some things.Is Cordarrelle Patterson going to play a role on offense?Is Bijan Robinson going to split work with Tyler Allgeier?Does Kirk Cousins still have it? Please! Captain Kirk, we need you! |
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| I'll be in your inbox every weekday and every Sunday morning for the foreseeable future! NFL is back, baby! I am so grateful and excited to be able to deliver this newsletter to you as we navigate the 2024 season together. Thank you! This is going to be fun! |
| If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Dan and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! |
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