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| Wednesday, November 6, 2024 |
| It's Wednesday, which means it's matchup day for FFT Newsletter readers! Today's matchups will be pass-game-centric, with Thursday's newsletter focused more on the run game. |
| Before we dive in, here are a few reminders for the FFT fam: |
| 1. If you did not catch the Beyond the Box Score podcast episode on FFT that I record with Adam Aizer and Dan Schneier every Monday, you can listen to that here! |
| 2. This Thursday's Beyond the Box Score guest will be Heath Cummings of FFT! |
| Under Pressure -- how might blitz/pressure rates impact Week 10? |
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The Jets pass rush has been getting after QBs
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| Without the Browns playing in Week 10, the Jets present the highest pressure rate matchup possible, and that's a matchup that Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals will have to contend with. Oh boy. |
| Arizona has actually done an admirable job of keeping Kyler clean. His pressure rate (29.7%) is one of the lowest in the NFL. The league average is 33%. In three games where he has been pressured at an above average rate, Murray posted his second-, fourth-, and fifth-lowest Fantasy scores. Overall, his splits when pressured are better in 2024 than in years past. This is a QB who has not dealt well with pressure, historically. He's much more likely to scramble when pressured, and he's much less-likely to hit his first-read. Murray's first-read target rate drops from 76% when not pressured to 34% when under pressure. Every quarterback's first-read rate drops when pressured, but Murray's dip is pronounced even relative to the rest of the league. |
| That's bad news for Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride. |
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| In 2023, the Jets were the best in the NFL at taking away opposing first-read targets. That has not been the case in 2024. Even with a 55% pressure rate against C.J. Stroud in Week 9, we still saw Tank Dell get open behind this defense. George Pickens went for 5-111-1 against the Jets in Week 7. Maybe MHJ can pull in some long catches vs. New York. |
| I'm not feeling great about rostering any Cardinals other than James Conner. Murray's play has been erratic, and increased pressure is likely to exacerbate the issue. I expect that we'll see Arizona attempt to lean on the ground game. The Jets have the third-lowest opponent pass rate over expectation, and only two opponents have posted a positive PROE vs. New York. Offenses have chosen to operate a run-heavy gameplan vs. the Jets, even relative to expectations based on the circumstances of each play. With the Jets generating pressure on almost half of opponent dropbacks, it makes a lot of sense to avoid passing if possible! |
| On the other side of the ball... |
| The Cardinals rank 29th in pressure rate, which may allow Aaron Rodgers to operate the offense how he would like to. Rodgers has struggled vs. pressure, but the Jets have done a great job of protecting him (and he's gotten rid of the ball quickly). Among quarterbacks who have played all year, only Baker Mayfield has a lower pressure rate than Rodgers. |
| When pressured, he ranks 36th out of 39 QBs in catchable ball rate. When not pressured, he ranks 22nd. His 'highly accurate' throw rate on plays without pressure is the fifth-highest. This matchup presents well for Rodgers, the only question is where he will decide to go with the ball. How aggressive will he be in testing an Arizona secondary intent on keeping everything in the field of vision? The Cardinals have the league's lowest opponent first-read target rate, the 10th-lowest opponent wide receiver target rate, the third-highest opponent in-line TE target rate, and the eighth-highest opponent RB target rate. How will this matchup translate against an offense that neglects the tight end position? Rodgers has the 12th-highest WR target rate (59.5%) and 10th-lowest TE target rate (17.6%) among 38 qualified passers. With Davante Adams on the field, those rates have shifted to 65.2% of the targets going to the WR position and only 14.6% of targets directed at the tight ends. |
| I guess that we see a lot of Breece Hall targets. D'Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson were targeted nine times vs. this defense last week. Before that, De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert totaled 10 targets vs. Arizona. |
| I also think that we'll still see Rodgers try to force the ball to Adams and Garrett Wilson after the performance that those two turned in in Week 9. |
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| Those average separation scores are really impressive, to me, given the matchup vs. Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter in Houston. Of the two Jets receivers, Adams is the one attacking the middle of the field more since his arrival, so the matchup would seem to favor him. |
| We are on Cam Robinson watch again |
| I watched Cam Robinson's Week 9 film and left quite concerned. I think that he's going to struggle vs. speed rushers and blitzes. Fortunately, the Jaguars blitz at the lowest rate (17%) in the NFL and rank just 26th in pressure rate. Unfortunately for Robinson, he'll square off with former teammate Josh Hines-Allen on the edge. Jacksonville edge rusher Travon Walker has disappointed in 2024, Hines-Allen has not. Among 175 qualified defensive lineman and linebackers, JHA ranks 11th in pressure rate created on non-blitzes. He's a beast. |
| Sam Darnold is notorious for being sensitive vs. pressure, and while he's cleaned it up a bit in 2024, performance vs. pressure still does plague him. When not pressured, Darnold has fed Justin Jefferson a monster 35% target per route run rate. When under pressure, Jefferson's rate drops to 15%. As we've seen with Malik Nabers following the removal of New York's left tackle Andrew Thomas, even the most dominant route runners need more than a couple of seconds to run a route and draw a target. I believe in Darnold and Kevin O'Connell to find solutions more than most QB-coach combos, but it's worth noting that Jefferson is absolutely a downfield route runner. Any noteworthy increase in pressure could be problematic. |
| The Jaguars rank 29th in average time to pressure. So, hopefully, we see Darnold make it out unscathed again. I do worry about the individual matchup for Robinson on Darnold's blind side, though. |
| The answer may just be more and more Aaron Jones while the offense establishes its confidence level in Robinson's ability to protect the left side. Saquon Barkley totaled 199 scrimmage yards vs. Jacksonville in Week 9, and Josh Jacobs put up 125 before that. |
| On the other side of the ball... |
| Trevor Lawrence's top target when under pressure was Christian Kirk, and he looked lost without him in Week 9. The Jags did a decent job of protecting Lawrence (31% pressure rate), but he completed only three passes on 11 pressured dropbacks, taking two sacks and throwing an interception. |
| Week 9's performance by Jacksonville's offensive line marked the fifth time over the past six Jags games that Lawrence has been pressured at a rate below league average after he was pressured on over 40% of his dropbacks through the initial three games. That's great. Week 10 presents a tough test vs. a Minnesota Vikings (sixth in time to pressure and pressure rate over expectation) defense that has stymied many more composed passing games than Jacksonville's. |
| If curious about Brian Thomas Jr.'s health and Week 9 performance, check this thread out. I watched every route that he ran and felt that BTJ did not play with nearly as much physicality as usual. Fortunately for him, the Vikings use press coverage at the fourth-lowest rate (39%) in the NFL, so he might still be able to finesse his way into a big game. |
| First and foremost, I'm expecting Evan Engram to be leaned on in this matchup. |
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| If possible, this may just be a spot to avoid exposure to Lawrence and the Jaguars, though. |
| Courtland Sutton has a 47% catchable target rate when Bo Nix is pressured |
| When Nix has been kept clean, Sutton's catchable target rate is 72%. He's also been much more-likely to draw a target when Nix is not pressured, which comes as no surprise given the downfield-oriented nature of his route tree. |
| For reference on the 47% rate, the average for other receivers with 15+ targets vs. pressure is 59%. Sutton's is the second-lowest among that group. |
| The Chiefs rank first in the NFL with a 2.3-second average time to pressure. That does not feel like enough time for Sutton to get open. Maybe those who start Sutton this week get lucky on a couple of prayers answered on downfield heaves, but this is as bad of a matchup as I can imagine for him. Steve Spagnuluo has been quieting opposing top targets all year. |
| If you want to start any of the following receivers over Sutton this week, I think that is reasonable. |
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| Malik Nabers probably gets back on track vs. the Panthers |
| The Giants have an implied point total of 23 in Week 10. That's super high for this Daniel Jones-led unit and just goes to show how little respect Carolina's defense garners from line-makers on a weekly basis. |
| The Panthers rank dead last in pressure rate even with the 13th-highest blitz rate. Of course, pressure splits are stark for any downfield working wide receiver, but Nabers presents a particularly pronounced difference. |
| Target per route run rate splits for Malik Nabers: |
19% - QB pressured
44% - QB not pressured |
| Yard per route run rate splits for Malik Nabers: |
1.01 - QB pressured
3.12 - QB not pressured |
| What do you mean 44%?! When Jones is not pressured and Nabers is on the field, nearly half of those throws go in Nabers' direction?! Absurd. |
| Check this out, it gets even sillier. |
| On blitzes that do not generate pressure, Nabers has a 52% target per route run rate. No defense blitzes without pressure more than the Panthers. |
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| Week 10 Coverage Data |
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| I insist that Jaylen Waddle must reward our faith this week, he just must! |
| I waxed poetic about who Jaylen Waddle is and how shortsighted those of little faith are who want to give up on the uber-talented -- checks notes -- 25-year-old after a disappointing half of a season on two podcasts today. I'll clip that and put it on Twitter once the podcasts are live if you want to hear all of that. |
| You're here for the nitty gritty deep dive into the dank data aren't you, you sicko? You wanna hear about Cover-6 and stuff. I'm your Huckleberry. |
| Throughout his career, Waddle has been notably more efficient vs. zone coverage than man. That's a bit unusual for a former top-10 pick. It's not that Waddle has not performed well vs. man, but rather, that he's been exceptionally efficient vs. zone. When sharing the field with Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill, Waddle has a career 2.77 yard per route run rate vs. zone coverage. The only player with a higher rate during that time is Tyreek. In Week 9, Waddle faces a Rams defense that uses zone coverage at the ninth-highest rate in the NFL (74%). You know who else uses tons of zone coverage? The Buffalo Bills, a defense that has twice shut Waddle down this season. |
| The Bills allow 0.32 Fantasy points per dropback when using zone coverage. The Rams allow 0.52, only the Panthers (0.53) allow more. Also different - Buffalo uses tons of two-high safety coverages, while the Rams use much more single-high safety zone. The one two-high safety zone that the Rams do use a lot of is Cover-6. L.A.'s Cover-6 rate ties Philadelphia for highest in the NFL and is nearly double Buffalo's. Cover-6 and Cover-3 are the most-prevalent zones that the Rams use. |
| When facing Cover-6 with Tua, Waddle has averaged 2.8 yards per route run. When facing Cover-3 with Tua, he has averaged 3.1. When facing Cover-2 -- the third-most prevalent Rams scheme -- he's averaged 3.0. His worst splits come vs. Cover-4, and that is the defense that the Bills use at a well-above-average rate. The Rams rank 26th in Cover-4 use. |
| We just saw Jaxon Smith-Njigba get his season on track in a massive way against the Rams. You can watch him streak down the field and easily find holes in L.A.'s zones here. I believe that Waddle can do something similar in Week 10. He must! My teams are dead if he does not! |
| Is it just me, or is every week starting to look like a "Ladd McConkey spot?" |
| The Titans have the third-highest opponent slot rate. Tennessee uses press coverage at the third-highest rate, which is something that Quentin Johnston has struggled with. |
| The Titans have been without top corner L'Jarius Sneed since Week 6, so maybe L.A.'s perimeter receivers will win this matchup. My guess is that we see Justin Herbert lock in on McConkey. |
| While the projected game script is gross, we have seen the Chargers remain pass-heavy even when winning lately. L.A.'s pass rate over expectation is near the very top of the league since the Week 5 bye, and opposing offenses have chosen to go very pass-heavy when facing Tennessee lately. The Titans have been awesome against the run. With Justin Herbert playing exceptional ball right now, we may see another pass-heavy gameplan dialed up. |
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| San Francisco offers explosive upside in Week 10 |
| Todd Bowles has scaled back the aggressiveness a bit as a blitzer in 2024, but that may have something to do with facing lots of quarterbacks who excel vs. the blitz. For instance, the Bucs only blitzed 10% of the time vs. Patrick Mahomes last week. But two weeks before that, Bowles brought the blitz 59% of the time vs. Lamar Jackson. |
| Against Brock Purdy last year, Bowles blitzed 42% of the time. Purdy shredded Tampa's defense and the Niners cruised to an easy win. Vegas expects something similar coming out of San Fran's bye. The Niners have the second-highest implied point total (28) and are 5.5-point favorites. |
| If looking for one specific player to target in this matchup, Jauan Jennings is the name that I would highlight. You're locking the rest of the guys into your lineup regardless, right? Jennings is the one that may give you some pause. It's been a while since we've heard from him. |
| If healthy, I expect Jennings to make some plays down the field vs. this defense. When blitzed, Purdy ranks top-10 in average depth of target, 'Hero ball' throws (per Fantasy Points Data), and turnover-worthy throws. He's been aggressive vs. the blitz. I do expect Jennings to be the player who fills the Brandon Aiyuk void as a downfield route runner. |
| That void is why we're here talking about the coverage matchup and not just the possibility of a blitz-heavy gameplan. The Bucs use Cover-3 at the third-highest rate (43%), and that's a scheme that typically funnels more targets to perimeter downfield workers at WR. Aiyuk has by far the highest target per route run rate (30%) vs. Cover-3 on the Niners roster. If a good portion of those opportunities are given to Jennings, then we could see an explosive performance in this matchup. |
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| Darnell Mooney and/or Drake London set to eat |
| The Saints have the third-highest opponent pass rate over expectation, and the spread (3.5 points) isn't as wide as I expected, so I feel reasonably confident in projecting good pass-game volume numbers for Atlanta. Kirk Cousins did not play well in this spot in Week 4, but he has much more momentum heading into this game. |
| I'm excited for the receivers in this matchup because the Saints just traded away Marshon Lattimore and because the Saints do not use very much Cover-3. For whatever reason, London and Mooney have not performed well vs. Cover-3. I truly am at a loss for why, maybe I'll figure it out during the offseason. It feels like a coverage type that London should perform well against. |
| Anyway, the Saints have the fourth-lowest Cover-3 rate, at 20%. The NFL average is 37% and some defenses use it almost half of the time. |
| Target per route run rate vs. Cover-3: |
19% - London
19% - Mooney |
| Target per route run rate vs. any other coverage: |
31% - London
25% - Mooney |
| Yards per route run vs. Cover-3: |
1.41 - London
1.07 - Mooney |
| Yards per route run vs. any other coverage: |
2.56 - Mooney
2.53 - London |
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| Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Adam, Dan, and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! We do a weekly recap on Mondays and a deep dive with a guest every Thursday; you can find those on YouTube! |
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