| | | | Monday, June 3, 2024 | | Oh boy, there's a ton of news to cover from this weekend, and of course, it means we've got some (more) holes to fill in our lineups ahead of Week 11 of the Fantasy Baseball season. So, there's no extended intro needed here -- let's just jump right into it. We're looking ahead to Week 11, with Scott White's hitter and pitcher previews, plus my look at the top waiver-wire targets, plus my recap of everything you need to know from this weekend's action. Let's get to it: | | | | Week 11 Preview | | | | Here's something you need to know about Week 11: We've got four different teams playing just five games. That includes the Phillies and Mets, who have some extra days off in the schedule to account for their travel to London for a two-game series this weekend. And then the Marlins and Rays are also scheduled for just five games, I guess to account for the travel from Tampa to Miami -- I-75 can get backed up. | | Week 11 waiver targets | | There were no obvious, "Stop what you're doing right now and go add him" candidates this weekend. If TJ Friedl is available in your league and it's a league where steals matter, make sure you go add him, and I'm willing to go add Spencer Turnbull based on the upside he showed early on, even though it's not clear if Ranger Suarez's injury is going to open more than a spot start for him in the Phillies rotation. But neither guy is likely to be someone you'll kick yourself for missing out on, and I think that mostly holds tru for the other top waiver-wire targets this week. | | Here's the rest of the top players to consider adding ahead of Week 11: | | C: Patrick Bailey, Giants (29%) 1B: Christian Encarnacion-Strand , Reds (58%) 2B: Nick Gonzales, Pirates (46%) 3B: Mark Vientos, Mets (22%)SS: Masyn Winn, Cardinals (48%)OF: Ceddanne Rafaela, Red Sox (54%), Matt Vierling, Tigers (44%), Jesse Winker, Nationals (42%) SP: Matt Waldron, Padres (52%), Kyle Gibson, Cardinals (50%), Hunter Brown, Astros (48%)RP: Yimi Garcia, Blue Jays (24%) | | For more deep-league targets, plus my thoughts on each of those players and more, head here. | | | | Week 11 sleeper hitters | | Best hitter matchups for Week 11: | 1. Astros STL3, @LAA3
2. Rockies CIN3, @STL4
3. Padres @LAA3, ARI4
4. Cardinals @HOU3, COL4
5. Reds @COL3, CHC4 | | Worst hitter matchups for Week 11: | 1. Brewers @PHI3, @DET3
2. Rays @MIA2, BAL3
3. Athletics SEA3, TOR3
4. Yankees MIN3, LAD3
5. Dodgers @PIT3, @NYY3 | | Top sleeper hitters for Week 11: | | Brenton Doyle, OF, Rockies (77%) CIN3, @STL4 Jake Meyers, OF, Astros (35%) STL3, @LAA3 Ian Happ, OF, Cubs (70%) CHW2, @CIN4TJ Friedl, OF, Reds (55%) @COL3, CHC4 Davis Schneider , OF, Blue Jays (47%) BAL4, @OAK3 | | Week 11 sleeper pitchers | | You can check out Scott's two-start pitcher rankings here, too. He ranks every projected two-start pitcher for the upcoming week, tiering them from must-starts to "no-thanks." | | Top sleeper pitches for Week 11: | | Matt Waldron, SP, Padres (31%) at LAA, vs. ARI Reese Olson, SP, Tigers (72%) vs. MILCristopher Sanchez , SP, Phillies (77%) vs. MIL Kyle Gibson, SP, Cardinals (44%) at HOU, vs. COL Alec Marsh, SP, Royals (49%) vs. SEA | | | Weekend Standouts
| | Good pitching | | Cole Ragans, Royals vs. SD: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – This line isn't particularly noteworthy, because this is just what Ragans does seemingly every time out now. But there was one noteworthy aspect, and that's the return of Ragans' slider. He threw it 14% of the time, his highest since Opening Day and got four swinging strikes with it. That pitch's emergence was a big part of Ragans' breakout last summer, and though he's been fine without it, it's just another weapon if he can use it consistently like this. | | Garrett Crochet, White Sox @MIL: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – It's not clear what the White Sox plans are for Crochet, whose 69.2 innings this season are already almost half his total since becoming a professional in 2020 – he had thrown 85.1 in four seasons prior to this. But, while it's fair to be concerned about Crochet wearing down at some point – he's already thrown more innings than in any season in his life dating back to at least college – at this point, only a shutdown concerns me. That uncertainty does make it tough to know how to value him, but I'm mostly just viewing Crochet as a fringe ace, not far from where I have Ragans ranked. | | Nick Lodolo, Reds @CHC: 6 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K – That's now two starts in a row with just three strikeouts for Lodolo, though it's worth noting that he has allowed ust three earned runs across those two starts. Lodolo's velocity has been fine across those two starts, and it's not like there's even been one consistent cause – Sunday, his curveball wasn't getting any whiffs, while the fastball and changeup were the problem the previous time out – so I'm mostly inclined to write this off as a fluke. | | Framber Valdez, Astros vs. MIN: 7 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – Valdez wasn't racking up swings and misses in this one, and he wasn't generating a ton of weak contact – in fact, his average exit velocity was 92.6 Saturday, albeit almost entirely on the ground, negating the damage caused. It wasn't a perfect start, and if you're inclined to be concerned about Valdez, it probably didn't do much to make you feel better. | | Tanner Bibee, Guardians vs. WAS: 6.1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – Bibee's fastball has been his biggest issue this season, but that wasn't a problem Friday, as he accounted for four of his strikeouts with the pitch, which had a very solid 30.4% whiff rate. His velocity was up about 1 mph, which may help explain his success. The question now is whether he can sustain that moving forward. It would go a long way toward making up for what has been a pretty disappointing season so far. | | Bryce Miller, Mariners vs. LAA: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K – Miller is too young to come to any concrete conclusions, but I do have to wonder if this is just who he's always going to be? When he's on, he looks a lot like this, and to be fair, he's been on a lot more than he hasn't been this season. But he remains incredibly reliant on his fastball for success – nine of his 12 whiffs Saturday came on either the four-seamer or sinker – and I just don't know if you can consistently succeed at this level with that approach. He remains a sell-high candidate in my eyes. | | Mitch Keller, Pirates @TOR: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – Keller is such a tough player to figure out, because after sporting a 4.98 ERA in April he has a 1.34 ERA since the start of May, with little to explaining why he's been so much better. Keller's pitch mix was nearly identical from April to May, with the only real change in his statistical profile being a drop in his walk rate from 8.4% to 3.8%. Maybe that's just the difference between Keller pitching like waiver-wire fodder and him pitching like an ace, but that still doesn't explain why his control improved so much. I think he's just one of those guys who you probably don't want to overthink – he's a mid-to-high-3.00s ERA pitcher at the end of the day, but the path there will be a rocky one. | | Reynaldo Lopez, Braves vs. OAK: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K – My disinterest in Lopez coming into the season stemmed from one simple fact: We've seen him as a starter averaging 94-95 mph with his fastball, and there was little to get excited about. Am I anchoring too much to that preseason opinion? Well, Lopez has a good, but not great 24.3% strikeout rate, with a pretty average 8.8% walk rate, and his giving up a .370 expected wOBA on contact, which is right around the league average of .369. Add it all up, and he looks like a slightly above average pitcher – one who has a 1.73 ERA, to be sure, but also just a 3.70 xERA. This might just be the confirmation bias at play, but I still think he's one of the most obvious sell-high candidates at starting pitcher, and his slumping strikeout rate (24 in 27.1 May innings) doesn't make me feel especially worried about being wrong about this one. | | Jake Irvin , Nationals @CLE: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – I want to buy in on Irvin, who has been simply tremendous since the start of May, sporting a 2.54 ERA over his past six starts. And there are things to get excited about here, as his strikeout rate has jumped up to 24.3% without any increase in his walk rate. Sustaining that will be a key, because Irvin hasn't really shown much of an ability to limit hard contact, with a .399 expected wOBA on contact for the season. The problem is, I'm not sure what there is to grab onto to explain the jump in strikeout rate – his curveball has been much more effective, but it's not like the characteristics of the pitch have changed much. He's executing at a high level, but I'm just not sure I want to bet on that proving sustainable. Ride him while he's hot, but I'm not putting much value on Irvin in the long run. | | Charlie Morton , Braves vs. OAK: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 5 BB, 6 K – It just feels like you're dodging landmines with every good start you get out of Morton at this point. Sometimes, like Sunday, it can work out, but that shouldn't be your expectation, even against good matchups – remember, he was tagged for eight runs against the Nationals earlier this week. Morton did rack up 15 swinging strikes, in large part to a curveball-heavy approach, though if the side effect of that approach is control like this, I'm not sure it's a tradeoff that really changes his outlook. I'm content to leave Morton for the wire, because I just don't believe the juice is worth the squeeze anymore. | | Bailey Falter, Pirates @TOR: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – And with that, Falter finishes the month of May with a 2.23 ERA … and 15 strikeouts to nine talks in 32.1 innings of work. I considered diving deep into the numbers to try to figure out whether this is sustainable, but it just doesn't feel worth it – he has a 4.70 xERA, so it's not like you can even point to excellent quality-of-contact suppression. This is just one of those things that happens sometimes – I'll remind you that Josiah Gray, Bryce Elder, and Michael Lorenzen all made the All-Star game last year. Falter is an extremely easy drop at the first sign of trouble – or the first promising pitcher who becomes available on the wire. | | Bad Pitching | | Chris Sale , Braves vs. OAK: 4 IP, 9 H, 8 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – There were a handful of "the regression happened all at once" starts this weekend, and Sale is probably the most prominent of them. Given his struggles over the past few years, there's probably a segment of the Fantasy playing population that thinks this is start of Sale's unraveling, but I'm inclined to just say it's one of those things that happens sometimes. Sale wasn't going to sustain an ERA near 2.00 all season, and it's not like his velocity was down much at all; that would be a red flag worth monitoring. I don't see much reason to be alarmed here. | | Joe Ryan, Twins @HOU: 5 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – When things go wrong for Ryan, you just have to hope the bases are empty, because he's going to give up some homers. This was just about the best-case scenario in that regard, because he gave up four homers and just five earned runs in this one. Homers are always going to be an issue for Ryan, but there's little in his overall numbers that suggests we should expect much more of this – his 3.09 xERA is actually not just a hair below his 3.38 actual mark. I get being skeptical given that this the point when his season started going sideways last year, but I'm not too concerned about that right now. | | Walker Buehler , Dodgers vs. COL: 6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 7 K – I keep hoping for reasons to be optimistic about Buehler, and while we've seen a few good starts, the overall results are pretty mediocre. His velocity is more or less where it was in 2021, when he was an ace, so that's one thing to be optimistic about. But, while his pitch mix is largely unchanged, his whiff rates on his secondaries have really collapsed, especially his cutter and slider. That might be solvable, and I'm willing to give a player with Buehler's track record the benefit of the doubt to a point … but I can't say he's a must-start pitcher at this point. | | Kyle Bradish, Orioles vs. TB: 2.2 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 6 K – With the Orioles already watching two former Tommy John surgery recipients require another surgery this week, Bradish's performance feels like insult on top of injury, but it also puts where Bradish is in perspective – there's never a guarantee a pitcher comes back from a serious injury and looks like themselves. This is still a success story, relatively speaking, and I don't really see much reason to think Bradish's struggles here are indicative of any underlying issue. His velocity was fine, I think he just wasn't on his game in this one. It could be worse. | | Hunter Greene , Reds @CHC: 6 IP, 3 H, 5 ER, 5 BB, 5 K – The big inning remains a problem for Greene, whose much-improved quality-of-contact skills did not show up in this one. He gave up an expected wOBA of .417 and an average exit velocity against of 93.8 mph, up from .273 and 88 mph, respectively. His average fastball velocity was down 2.2 mph, which probably explains most of it, since that's been a big source of his improvement. Hopefully it was just a bump in the road, though the fact that Greene threw 111 pitches in this one does make me a bit wary of trusting him in his next outing. | | Yusei Kikuchi , Blue Jays vs. PIT: 5.1 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – It seems like just as everyone was finally starting to buy into Kikuchi, things started to fall apart on him. Some context is, I think, important here, as his overall numbers remain very good, so I'm mostly willing to write this off as a bad start against a Pirates team that has been surprisingly effective against lefties this season. Still, his whiff rates pretty much across the board have moved in the wrong direction since last year, which helps explain why Kikuchi's strikeout rate is down from 25.9 to 23.4%. He's tinkered his way out of slumps, and I assume Kikuchi will do the same here, but he's certainly struggling. | | Taj Bradley , Rays @BAL: 3.1 IP, 9 H, 9 ER, 3 BB, 3 K – Bradley remains an incredibly frustrating pitcher. Catch him on the right day, in the right inning, on the right pitch, and he looks like an ace, with several electric pitches that cover a wide band of movement and velocity and can all generate whiffs. The problem is, he still isn't consistently executive, and I think that's ultimately what it comes down to. The stuff should be good enough, but the command isn't, and major-league hitters are too good not to tee off on pitches in the middle of the strike zone. I want to believe, but he's not giving me much to hang on to here. | | Ben Brown, Cubs vs. CIN: 5 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – Well, that's not what we wanted to see after Brown's apparent breakout the previous time around. I think the problem here is a fairly simple one – he has an incredible curveball, and that's kind of it. That pitch worked well enough in this one, with four whiffs and only one ball in play, but he threw his merely decent fastball 70% of the time, and that just isn't going to be a viable strategy for him most of the time. I don't want to write Brown off, but I just don't see as much to get excited about here as I want. | | Hitters | | Christian Yelich, OF, Brewers – Yelich went 5 for 6 with five RBI Friday, and is now hitting .323/.408/.548 after this weekend. He probably won't keep it up, but the fact that he's doing this after coming back from a back injury seems like a pretty good sign of how good he's feeling. That's exactly what we want to see after Yelich has had a few seasons wrecked by back injuries. | | Ketel Marte, 2B, Diamondbacks – Marte slowed down a bit in May, but he bounced back in a big way this weekend, going 4 for 10 for four runs, including a two-homer game Sunday. Injuries have been a problem for Marte in his career, but when healthy, he's a mid-.800s OPS bat with 25-homer upside. | | Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B, Royals – Overall, Pasquantino's production remains pretty middling, but it's hard to quit his upside. He's posted much better underlying numbers than his top-line production this season, and with two homers and eight hits over the past four games, maybe he's starting to live up to them. | | Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B, Pirates – Even before last year's second-half breakout, Hayes has generally combined really good plate discipline with the ability to hit the ball consistently hard, but he's only had one part of that combination so far, as his average exit velocity is down to 88.1 mph, the lowest mark of his career by two mph. He did go deep Saturday while going 4 for 14 this week, so hopefully this is a sign that he's starting to get back to what made him so interesting. | | Zack Gelof, 2B, Athletics – Gelof was a popular breakout pick this season, and that has not gone well. Even after his homer Sunday, he is hitting just .182/.247/.302 for the season. His quality of contact is still decent, especially for a pretty pull-heavy hitter, but Gelof's plate discipline has collapsed, with his strikeout rate jumping to 33.9%. Opposing pitchers have picked on some holes in Gelof's swing, and until he fixes that, it's going to be hard for him to be a trustworthy option. I'm still holding on for upside, though, so hopefully we see more of this. | | Jose Miranda, 3B, Twins – Miranda was one of the bigger busts in 2023, but he's come back in 2024 and played so well that the Twins opted to send down Edouard Julien when Royce Lewis was ready to come off the IL. I think that probably says at least something about wanting to keep a third baseman on the roster for Lewis' inevitable days off/insurance, given his injury history. But it says just as much about Miranda's growth. I've been rostering him for a while in an AL-only league, and he's worth a look in some deeper categories leagues – though it's worth noting that Miranda's quality of contact isn't much better than last season, so I'm also not expecting him to be a contributor in 12-team leagues, say. | | News and notes | | Gerrit Cole will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A on Tuesday. He should be ready to rejoin the Yankees by mid-late June, assuming no setbacks. | | The Twins are expected to reinstate Royce Lewis on Tuesday. He hasn't played since Opening Day due to a quad injury. The Twins have six road games this week against the Yankees and Pirates, and though I do expect him to get a day off at some point, I would start Lewis this week. | | Ranger Suarez was removed Saturday after being struck on his left hand by a 106 MPH comebacker. X-rays came back negative, thankfully, but there's swelling in his left thumb. On Sunday manager Rob Thomson said the swelling has improved significantly and Suarez could pick up a ball in the next day or two, though I'd be wary of trusting him this week given that uncertainty. | | Trea Turner suffered a minor setback in his recovery from a left hamstring strain earlier this week. He managed to resume fielding grounders and also did some light jogging on Friday, but doesn't appear close to running the bases again, so he's probably at least multiple weeks away, still. | | Jordan Romano was placed on the 15-day IL Saturday with right elbow inflammation, retroactive to May 30. An MRI didn't reveal any structural damage but this is now the second time Romano has gone on the IL with an elbow problem this year. Yimi Garcia picked up the save on Sunday and should be a decent source of saves while Romano is out. | | The Padres lost a few starters to injury this weekend, with Yu Darvish went on the IL with a left groin strain and Joe Musgrove with right elbow inflammation. That's the second time both have been on the IL, but it's a bigger concern for Musgrove, given that it's an elbow injury. At this point it doesn't sound too serious, but I'm going to set my expectations on the floor for Musgrove at this point. Anything I get from him after two elbow injuries is a bonus. | | Zac Gallen went on the IL with a right hamstring strain. That's lingered a bit for him, so hopefully getting him some extra rest helps put it behind him. | | Blake Snell exited his start Sunday due to a tight left groin. He's set for an MRI and is likely to go back on the IL, which is frustrating because Snell actually looked better before the injury, with seven strikeouts in 4.2 innings of work. | | Michael Wacha was placed on the 15-day IL with a non-displaced left foot fracture. Daniel Lynch was recalled and will take Wacha's spot in the Royals' rotation. | | Alek Manoah went on the IL with a right elbow sprain, retroactive to May 30. | | CJ Abrams has been scratched two games in a row due to a jammed left shoulder. The Nationals play on Monday so we should learn more by then, but at this point, I'm inclined to start him and hope he's in the lineup. | | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. started at third base on Sunday, his first start at the hot corner since 2019. This allowed the Blue Jays to play Justin Turner at first base with Daniel Vogelbach at DH. We'll see if this becomes a trend, but Guerrero now needs just four more appearances for double eligibility, which would be nice. | | Bobby Miller is scheduled for another rehab start, this time at Triple-A on Friday. His last outing didn't go so well, allowing four runs over 3.1 innings at Single-A as he works his way back from a shoulder issue. | | Henry Davis is expected to be called up from Triple-A on Tuesday. In 22 games at Triple-A, he hit .286 with seven HR, one steal and a 1.082 OPS. I still think there's plenty of upside here, and at 17% rostered, he's worth adding in two-catcher leagues – though I would still prefer Patrick Bailey, personally. | | Lars Nootbaar went on the IL with a left oblique strain, retroactive to May 30. Manager Oli Marmol said Nootbaar is expected to miss several weeks. Alec Burleson, Dylan Carlson and Michael Siani started all three games in the outfield this weekend | | Christian Scott and Brett Baty were both optioned back to Triple-A on Friday. | | The Mets don't need a fifth starter next week with their series in London, so I would expect Scott to be back before long. Baty might have to wait longer after Mark Vientos clearly outplayed him. | | Reid Detmers was optioned to Triple-A after another rough outing on Saturday. He is still 55% rostered, and it's perfectly acceptable to drop him in pretty much all leagues. Let's see him show something in the minors before buying back in, huh? | | Spencer Torkelson is expected to be optioned to Triple-A on Monday, and it's the same thing as with Reid: Let him get back on track down on the minors before considering adding him again. His quality of contact metrics are pretty awful right now, so we don't even have that to hang on to like we did when he struggled early last season. Prospect Justyn-Henry Malloy is expected to be called up. There's some pop here and a good eye at the plate, but I'm not sure Malloy needs to be added until he proves himself. | | Clayton Kershaw threw live batting practice on Saturday, the first time he's faced live hitters since his shoulder surgery. It sounds like he could be ready to go shortly after the All-Star break, but I'm not really expecting him to be a difference maker for Fantasy at this point. | | Bryan Woo was lifted after just 66 pitches on Friday and his manager Scott Servais said Woo has been dealing with some "arm stuff." Woo is expected to make his next start but this is now the second time we've heard about an arm-related injury since Woo returned, which is a little worrying. He's talented, but pretty fringe-y for Fantasy with these shorter outings. | | It turns out both John Means and Tyler Wells need surgery on the UCL in their pitching elbows. Both will miss the remainder of 2024. | | Jung Hoo Lee will undergo shoulder surgery Tuesday and will miss the rest of the 2024 season. | | Other players who went on the IL this weekend | | Sixto Sanchez with right shoulder inflammation | | Vaughn Grissom with a right hamstring strain | | Andrew Benintendi with left achilles tendinitis | | Marco Luciano with a right hamstring strain | | A's reliever Lucas Erceg with forearm tightness | | | | | | | | Golazo Network | | The First Cut | Watch LIVE global soccer coverage on the CBS Sports Golazo Network, available FOR FREE on the CBS Sports App, Pluto TV and streaming on Paramount+.
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