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Monday, June 10, 2024
We've got another huge weekend of news to cover today, so there won't be any need for a long intro here. We're looking ahead to Week 12 first, with Scott White's hitter and pitcher previews, plus my look at the top waiver-wire targets. And then we've got my recap of all the news and performances you need to know from this weekend's action. Let's get to it: 
Week 12 Preview
We've got a nice balanced schedule on the way in Week 12, with only the Reds and Guardians scheduled to play five times. Thankfully, the schedule won't come into play too much in your lineup decisions this week. 
There are always two waves of rookie callups every season, at least. There's the early-April callup, typically of the biggest name prospects who mashed their way onto the roster in Spring Training. And then there's the June wave, when teams hope they can avoid Super Two arbitration status for the guys who were a little further away from the majors. 
We saw that second big wave start this weekend, with Braves starter Hurston Waldrep, White Sox starter Drew Thorpe, and Rockies shortstop Adael Amador getting the call, among others. I wrote about my expectations for those three plus Mariners first baseman Tyler Locklear in my look at the Week 12 Waiver Wire column, and yes, I'm still trying to add Waldrep even after his poor MLB debut Sunday. 
Here's the rest of the top players to consider adding ahead of Week 12:
Best hitter matchups for Week 12:
1. Twins COL3, OAK4
2. Padres OAK3, @NYM3
3. Diamondbacks LAA3, CHW3
4. Pirates @STL3, @COL3
5. Mariners CHW3, TEX3
Worst hitter matchups for Week 12:
1. Red Sox PHI3, NYY3
2. Phillies @BOS3, @BAL3
3. Rockies @MIN3, PIT3
4. Rangers @LAD3, @SEA3
5. Guardians @CIN2, @TOR3
Top sleeper hitters for Week 11:
  1. Nick Gonzales, 2B, Pirates (64%) @STL3, @COL3
  2. Heliot Ramos, OF, Giants (54%) HOU3, LAA3
  3. Davis Schneider, OF, Blue Jays (61%) @MIL3, CLE3
  4. Joc Pederson, OF, Diamondbacks (34%) LAA3, CHW3
  5. Willi Castro , SS, Twins (64%) COL3, OAK4
You can check out Scott's two-start pitcher rankings here, too. He ranks every projected two-start pitcher for the upcoming week, tiering them from must-starts to "no-thanks." 
Top sleeper pitches for Week 12:
  1. Luis Severino, Mets vs. MIA
  2. Matt Waldron, Padres at NYM
  3. Erick Fedde, White Sox at SEA, at ARI
  4. Brandon Pfaadt, Diamondbacks vs. LAA
  5. Chris Paddack , Twins vs. COL, vs. OAK
Weekend Standouts
Good pitching
Chris Sale, Braves @WAS: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 10 K – Now that's how you bounce back from your first poor start of the season. Sale is pitching at a level we haven't seen from him in a long time, and while there are obviously ways things could go wrong for a 35-year-old with his injury history, I'm not betting against him at this point. 
Kevin Gausman , Blue Jays @OAK: 9 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 K – I dunno. I'm inclined to just throw my hands up and say, "It was against the A's!" and write it off, given how mediocre Gausman has been. Especially given the way he followed up his last 10-strikeout outing with just six combined over the next two starts. But this is also a guy we viewed as a top-10 starter coming into the season, so I certainly don't want to just ignore when he actually looks like one. So I'm saying, tentatively, to hold Gausman. If you can still get him at a discount, buying is fine, but I don't think I'd take this as a sell-high window, either. I am conflicted, you see. 
George Kirby, Mariners @KC: 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K – Kirby allowed 10 runs over two starts toward the end of May, causing his season ERA to spike to 4.33. In three starts since? Four runs, 21 strikeouts, and, naturally, just one walk in 18 innings of work. He might not be an ace because the strikeouts typically aren't quite elite and the ERA might be a bit higher than you'd like, but there's a reason I never moved him outside of my top-15 at SP. 
Framber Valdez, Astros @LAA: 9 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – Here's another guy I'm happy I never really gave up on. That's three quality starts in a row for Valdez, capped with his best of the season, fueled by a terrific curveball that generated 10 swinging strikes. Sure, it helps that he was facing the Angels , but Valdez still mostly looks like the guy he was last year – his strikeout rate is way down, but with his curveball and changeup both actually generating more whiffs than last year, I think it makes sense to bet on more good starts coming down the pike. The biggest thing missing right now is the slider, which has seen the whiff rate drop from 44% to 25%. If he rediscovers that one, he might take off like a rocket ship. 
Ranger Suarez, Phillies "@"NYM: 5.2 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – Well, I guess that hand injury wasn't such a concern after all. Suarez was a bit more hittable than usual, but the command remains impeccable, so no concerns. I still think he's a sell-high candidate, but I also think Suarez can be a top-30 SP the rest of the way, so you should get blown away if you're going to consider moving him. 
Shota Imanaga, Cubs @CIN: 6.2 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – After a couple of shaky starts in a row, Imanaga bounced back to look a lot more like he did earlier in the year. Yeah, there was that one homer, and that's probably just going to be an issue moving forward given how many fly balls he gives up. As long as he can keep the bases clear ahead of those homers, Imanage will probably be just fine moving forward. As with Suarez, there's a sell-high window here, still, but I need someone to value him as a top-15 SP to think about moving him. 
Freddy Peralta, Brewers vs. DET: 3.1 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 3 K – When he's on, few pitchers are as utterly dominant as Peralta, but … well, there's a reason I had him as a bust coming into the season. There are just too many stretches like this, where his command disappears and he looks beatable. He's going to keep racking up buckets full of strikeouts, and if you can live with a volatile ERA and WHIP, Peralta is a hugely valuable pitcher. He's just not an ace; at least, not always. 
Kyle Bradish, Orioles @TB: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K – Can he stay on the mound? If he can, I don't see any reason to be skeptical about Bradish, who has come back from Tommy John surgery pitching even better than in his 2023 breakout. The most impressive thing might be that he's traded four-seamers for sinkers without losing any swing-and-miss in his game, a huge change after his four-seamer kind of got hammered last year. Pulling that trick off is incredibly tough, and Bradish has plenty of room to regress and still pitch like an ace – his 34% strikeout rate is one of the best marks in baseball, and he doesn't need to be that high to be excellent. If he keeps this up … well, congrats on that injury discount, because it might have won you your league. 
Mitch Keller , Pirates vs. MIN: 6 IP, 7 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K – What's fueling Keller's breakout this time? He's traded some four-seamers for some sinkers through a couple of June starts, but otherwise, his pitch mix really doesn't look much different than it did during his miserable April. I think the best explanation is he's just executing at a really high level with his command right now. You can't necessarily bet on Keller to just keep doing that every time out, and I think he'll probably settle in as more of a mid-to-high-3.00s ERA guy, so if there's any kind of opportunity to sell, I don't mind taking it. 
Taj Bradley, Rays vs. BAL: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – I wish I could tell you this was the start of Bradley figuring it out, but all I can say is: If Bradley were figuring it out, this is probably what it would look like. The stuff is incredible, and there will always be starts like this when he's locked in and racks up big K numbers, but I'm not at the point where I'm ready to buy in. Bradley is fine to add and stash, but don't be surprised if he blows up in your face the next time around. 
Hunter Brown, Astros @LAA: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 7 K – Ah, if not for those walks … I mean, look, given how low Brown was earlier in the season, I can't knock him too much for that, especially with just one walk in his previous two starts. And hey, getting these kinds of results without your best command is what we're looking for. The strikeouts have been there three starts in a row, and he gets the Tigers in his next start, so I'm willing to start Brown this week, even if I'm not ready to say that every week. 
Andrew Abbott, Reds vs. CHC: 5 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 5 K – Yeah, I dunno, it all feels like fool's gold to me. I know the run prevention numbers have been excellent pretty much all season, but I just can't buy in with an 18.6% strikeout rate from a flyball pitcher. He's doing an excellent job limiting damage on contact, but pitching in that park feels like he's a ticking time bomb. 
Simeon Woods Richardson @PIT: 6.1 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K – This was a terrific performance from Woods Richardson, who has had a few of those this season. And if the 17 whiffs he generated could be sustainable, it would make Woods Richardson pretty interesting. The problem is, he hasn't really shown that upside consistently before, with only his curveball sporting a whiff rate over 25% for the season. Given how many great pitchers are out there right now, I'm just not sure it makes much sense to chase this one – though he makes some sense as a streamer against the A's in his next one. 
Bad Pitching
Jared Jones, Pirates vs. MIN: 5 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 3 K – I'm planning on doing a deep dive into Jones in the coming days, because I think he's one of the most important players in Fantasy right now, and I want to give him the analysis he deserves. What's behind his recent drop in strikeout production, and can we bet on him getting back to his April performance? I want to believe, but I don't want to commit to it until I've had a chance to give it more thought. Stay tuned … 
Bryce Miller, Mariners @KC: 5 IP, 6 H, 7 ER, 3 BB, 1 K – Miller has looked like a sell-high candidate for a while now, and you might have missed another window to do so. He's certainly not without his merits, but even with the development of his splitter, Miller remains too much of a one-trick pony, and when that fastball isn't absolutely dominant … well, starts like this can happen. Let's hope for a bounceback against the White Sox before we think about putting those trade offers out. 
Bailey Ober, Twins @PIT: 4.2 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – It's now been four weeks since Ober's last quality start. He's given up 10 homers in his past five starts with just 20 strikeouts in 23.2 innings of work, which is how you get here. I don't want to give up on Ober, but his fastball just isn't working right now, and I don't think he can right this ship until he figures that out. Even with his velocity up 1.5 mph Sunday, he had just one whiff on 28 of them. That's not going to work. 
Reese Olson , Tigers vs. MIL: 4 IP, 12 H, 8 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – The problem with relying on generating weak contact rather than missing bats is, you're going to get bombed when you aren't executing. That's what happened in the past two outings for Olson, though this weekend's start was more about stringing a bunch of hits together than the long ball killing him. Still, he wasn't executing well here, and Olson has neither the track record nor upside to ignore two poor starts in a row. I still believe he'll be fine moving forward, but if he struggles in his next one, I don't think I'd have much issue dropping him. 
Brandon Pfaadt, Diamondbacks @SD: 5.1 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – And here come the homers again. Pfaadt had seemingly fixed his biggest problem, allowing just two homers in his past six starts, but I never really bought his improvements when it came to quality of contact suppression, and all of the regression caught up with him Friday. For what it's worth, Pfaadt does have a 3.05 xERA to go with his 4.60 ERA, so there could be an opportunity to buy in at a super-cheap price if you believe in him. But I don't. 
Frankie Montas, Reds vs. CHC: 1.1 H, 5 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 2 K – And now you see why I was skeptical about Montas' great start the last time around. He leaned heavily on the slider in that one, which has never been a great pitch for him, and it generated no whiffs on five pitches Sunday. Montas has almost always lived and died by the splitter, and while that has been a very good pitch for him, for the most part, this season, it hasn't been enough because the rest of the arsenal looks very mediocre. He has some value as an RP in H2H points leagues, but that's about it outside of streaming. 
Adam Mazur,Padres vs. ARI: 3 IP, 8 H, 8 ER, 3 BB, 2 K – I was willing to write off Mazur's control issues in his first start as MLB debut jitters, given how good his control was in the minors. But that's now two starts in a row with more walks than strikeouts to open his career. That doesn't mean Mazur is a lost cause, but it's not like he was such a can't-miss prospect that he deserved the benefit of the doubt. Keep an eye on Mazur moving forward in case he starts showing more, but he can be dropped in pretty much all leagues for now. 
Sean Manaea, Mets vs. PHI: 3.2 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 3 K – The thing about a guy like Manaea is, he can have a two-month stretch with a 3.16 ERA and you can feel like a genius for keeping him in your lineup for a while, but you'd better make sure you get out before the bill comes due. He's given up 11 runs over the past two starts and now that ERA is up to 4.30. Where it probably should have been all along. You can go ahead and drop him now. 
Hitters
Jose Altuve, 2B, Astros – As good as Altuve was in April, he was about half that good in May – he had a 1.015 OPS in the first month of the season and just a .573 mark in the second. It had been a pretty lengthy slump, but he broke out of it in a big way with seven hits over three games, including his first homer in nearly three weeks Sunday. There was never really any reason to worry about Altuve, who remains on a 25-homer, 20-steal pace. 
Teoscar Hernandez, OF, Dodgers – I'm gonna give some kudos to Frank Stampfl here, because he was all over Hernandez in the preseason, and I wish I had listened. Hernandez had a monster weekend against the Yankees, going 6 for 12 with three homers and nine RBI, and he's basically on pace for career-best numbers now: 38 homers, 94 runs and 116 RBI. He's been a terrific addition for the Dodgers, and he's feasting on all the opportunities that superstar trio at the top of the lineup is creating for him, with little in the underlying numbers to suggest it isn't sustainable. 
Ezequiel Tovar , SS, Rockies – Are we seeing the Tovar breakout? The underlying numbers don't really back it up, as he combines dreadful plate discipline (29.4% strikeout rate, 3.9% walk rate) with just middling quality of contact metrics. However he's at least starting to improve the second part of that equation, sporting an expected wOBA of .312 since the start of May (even higher in June). That's still a pretty middling mark, but with the offense-inflating environment of Coors Field backing him, maybe his success could be sustainable. I lean toward selling Tovar coming off his two-homer game this weekend, but it's not an obvious call. 
Brice Turang, 2B, Brewers – Turang slowed down a bit in May, though not as much as I would have expected. The five steals were disappointing, sure, but his .284/.347/.386 batting line was far from the collapse I think many were expecting. And now he's hot again, going 7 for 13 with two steals this weekend. There's probably still some more regression coming for the bat, but Turang doesn't need to be a standout as a hitter if he's going to steal 40 bases, and he's back well above that pace now. 
News and notes
Juan Soto was diagnosed with forearm inflammation on Friday and missed all three games this weekend against the Dodgers. Aaron Boone indicated Soto should rejoin the lineup at some point in their series against the Royals, which begins on Monday. Given that optimism, I lean toward starting him this week. 
Kyle Tucker was placed on the IL Friday with a right shin contusion but is hopeful he will be able to return when first eligible Friday. Sit him this week, but this is good news all around. 
Trea Turner said Sunday he's "getting close" to returning and it's possible he's activated within the next week. Manager Rob Thomson said Turner is running at 75-80% right now, and you have to wonder if he'll be limited as a base stealer when he gets back. 
Gerrit Cole allowed one run over 4.2 innings, striking out four at Double-A on Sunday. He got up to 57 pitches and said afterward that he'll require at least one more rehab start. I'd bet on more than one, but clearly, Cole is close to a return one way or another. 
Max Scherzer threw four shutout innings with five strikeouts Sunday. I'd guess he also needs at least a couple more rehab starts, but we should see Scherzer before July if he avoids a setback. 
Bobby Miller threw four innings of one-run ball at Triple-A on Friday. His next start could come in the majors. 
Shane Baz struck out 10 over five innings of one-run ball at Triple-A on Saturday, his best start yet. Baz remains a pretty significant question mark, but there's a real chance he comes up and provides a couple months of ace production at some point. 
Edwin Diaz pitched a scoreless inning Sunday at High-A, and could rejoin the Mets as soon as Tuesday.
Corey Seager has missed three straight with that left hamstring strain but hasn't been placed on the IL. I think I'm leaning toward sitting Seager at this point, but keep an eye out for any reports Monday. 
Rafael Devers was removed Saturday with left knee soreness and did not play on Sunday. This is the same knee that forced Devers to miss nearly a week back in April, and with the Red Sox off Monday, it's hard to say whether Devers should be started. I'd lean toward starting him, but it's a risk. 
Manny Machado has missed four straight with a hip injury he suffered on Wednesday. I'd plan to bench him in weekly leagues this week unless we get an update Monday. 
Alex Bregman exited Sunday after getting hit by a pitch on his left hand, the same hand that got hit last week, rough luck. X-rays came back clean on Sunday, but let's hope we get an update Monday. 
Nico Hoerner was diagnosed with a small fracture in his hand after being hit by a pitch on Thursday. He missed all three games this weekend. Not only would I be looking for someone else for Week 12, but I'd be looking into a long-term replacement even if Hoerner is going to try to play through this injury. 
Seiya Suzuki sat out Saturday due to left oblique tightness but was back in the lineup Sunday. He went on the IL earlier this season with a right oblique strain, while it was the left oblique that landed him on the IL last season. 
Here's a name we haven't heard in a while: Jacob deGrom is slated to throw his first bullpen during the Rangers' June 17-23 homestand. He's 51% rostered, which feels about right for someone who may be able to return by August if all goes well. 
Clayton Kershaw will throw a three-inning simulated game next week and then start a rehab assignment. He's 46% rostered, which sounds about right for someone who could be back in July but who has significant performance questions at this point. I think I'd rather stash Kershaw, but my expectations aren't terribly high. 
Tyler O'Neill has missed two straight with renewed knee soreness but Alex Cora said he expects O'Neill to return on Tuesday. This has been a pretty big issue for O'Neill lately. He got off to a slow start but has slowed down and has really been banged up. I think you probably just have to keep holding him and hope he gets right. 
Masataka Yoshida started a rehab assignment at Triple-A on Saturday and is somebody you could look to add if he was dropped in five-outfielder leagues.
Alek Manoah will undergo UCL surgery on June 17 and miss the rest of this season.
Ryan Weathers went on the IL with a left index finger strain. 
Ty France went on the IL with a hairline fracture in his heel.
Brendan Rodgers went on the IL with a hamstring strain.
 
 
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