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| Friday, December 8, 2023 |
| We usually kick off Friday morning's newsletter with a recap of Thursday Night Football, but I'm going to keep it brief this time: The Steelers and Patriots offenses are bad. And you're probably better off avoiding both if you can. But we knew this coming in. |
| We did get a fun Ezekiel Elliott throwback performance, as he carried the Patriots with 22 carries and seven catches, en route to 140 total yards and a touchdown. It was a massive performance, a 27-point effort in full PPR that is sure to send at least a few of you to the Fantasy playoffs. Elliott surpassed our "volume-based RB2" expectations from when Rhamondre Stevenson went down, but he'll be remain in that range for a tough matchup against the Chiefs in Week 15. |
| There were just a few other noteworthy (in a good way) performances Thursday. Diontae Johnson got to 14.7 PPR points, which was decent enough, and Hunter Henry somehow managed two touchdowns on three catches, finishing with 19 PPR points; he was started in 11% of CBS Fantasy leagues, so I supposed some of you were desperate enough to benefit. |
| But it was an especially bad night for the Steelers. Najee Harris managed 7.8 PPR points, while George Pickens had 6.9 and Jaylen Warren had just 8.0. These two teams managed to beat the 30-point over/under by halftime, but managed just 39 points total, so if it wasn't as bad as expected, that's only because expectations were so low. It was a forgettable game, and hopefully it didn't hurt too many of your Fantasy playoff aspirations. |
| Let's leave that in the rearview mirror. Let's look ahead. In the rest of today's newsletter, we've got your #AskFFT questions, plus all the injury updates you need to know about heading into the final day of practice for Week 14. It's a big week, and there's a lot at stake, so let's make sure you've got what you need to know: |
| Start 'Em & Sit 'Em: QB | RB | WRDave Richard's Lineup DecisionsWeek 14 Position Previews: QB | RB | WR | TE Jamey, Dave, Heath's RankingsMy Week 14 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TECheat Sheets: PPR | Non-PPR |
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| #AskFFT Mailbag |
| You sent your questions in to Chris.Towers@Paramount.com, and I've got my answers. For those of you who aren't featured here, I tried to respond via email, and if you want to keep sending your questions this weekend, I'll try to answer more of them Sunday morning. |
| Now, let's get to the questions! |
| Ron: In preparation for the playoffs, I dropped two of my bench RBs (Roschon Johnson and Dameon Pierce) in favor of the lower ranked handcuffs ( Elijah Mitchell and Chase Brown) for my top two RBs (Christian McCaffrey and Joe Mixon ). Was that a smart move or a dumb move? |
| We talked about handcuffs in Wednesday's newsletter, and I think this was a reasonable decision. Pierce especially probably doesn't have a ton of upside – he might be "the lead back" for the Texans after last week, but he feels incredibly game-script dependent, and doesn't really have a path to a top-12 RB finish in any given week without a touchdown and/or a big play, given his lack of usage in the passing game. That could change if something happened to Devin Singletary, but I think even in that circumstance, Mike Boone might just take on the passing downs work. |
| And, at this point in the season, you're looking for two things: Insurance, and upside. Balancing those two things is key, and it's why I'm okay with dropping Pierce; I just don't think he has the upside to become a must-start Fantasy option, and he doesn't provide you insurance for the backs you already have. Johnson is a different case, because there is at least a chance that his 74% snap share in the Bears ' last game before the bye represented a real shift in how they want to deploy their backfield, and could make Johnson that must-start running back. It's not what I expect – I'm thinking D'Onta Foreman is the lead rusher, while Johnson gets a handful of carries and whatever passing work there is this week – but it's a realistic outcome, at least. |
| Then there's the question of whether you should be specifically targeting your own handcuffs vs. the best possible options. I ranked the top-12 handcuffs earlier in the week, and Mitchell was No. 2, so he's a great stash either way. Brown was No. 9, because he's a bigger question mark as far as talent and the offense that he's in, but if you had to target your own backs, at least the ones you have, have pretty good backups. |
| Which is all to say: I'm totally fine with these specific moves, and I support the idea in general anyways. If you're in the playoffs already, these are the types of moves you should be making to maximize your chances of having an unbeatable lineup in the playoffs. |
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| Bill: Chris, I NEED to win this game to make the playoffs. I am second in points scored after leading our league most of the season. My 7-6 record is due to stupid lineup decisions I made the last three weeks. I was 7-3. Trevor Lawrence is my QB, but he (probably) isn't going to play, and even if he does play with that ankle injury, he won't be effective. So, I picked up Jake Browning , and I do have Ja'Marr Chase to stack with him, plus Josh Dobbs, who gets Justin Jefferson back finally. Weather might be a bit of a factor in Cincy, but Dobbs has been so bad lately. |
| There are some quarterbacks you'd play even on a high-ankle sprain, and Lawrence was supposed to be one of them. However, we saw him play through a knee injury earlier in the season, and it wasn't terribly impressive – he did have 20.1 points in six-point-per-pass TD scoring in the first game after the knee injury, but then didn't have another game with 20 points in his next two games. Lawrence hasn't been ruled out for Sunday against the Browns, but given the matchup, I think it's probably best to avoid Lawrence. |
| And I'm rolling with Dobbs here. That's a scary proposition, because Dobbs might be one of the most likely QBs to be benched by halftime if he struggles this week, seeing as the Vikings seemingly considered benching him for Nick Mullens during the bye. However, the Vikings stuck with him, and as you said, he gets Justin Jefferson back this week, for a matchup against a beatable Raiders defense. Dobbs could struggle and find himself benched at halftime, something that isn't likely to happen for Browning. However, while Browning was great in Week 13, let's not ignore that he had just 13.1 PPR points in his first game, so there's a pretty low floor here too. Dobbs is the riskier option, but he's also got a lot more upside, and that's what I'm chasing in a must-win game. Losing by five points or 25 points doesn't really matter. |
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| Steve: I need two from Rachaad White, Saquon Barkley and Raheem Mostert. |
| I think White is the clear best option here, which would have been wild to consider at the start of the season. However, he's a top-five RB in PPR scoring this season, with at least 17 PPR points in five of his past six games. So, we're left choosing between Saquon Barkley and Raheem Mostert, and it's really a question of how much volume matters. |
| Barkley seems like one of the safer bets for 20-plus touches, while Mostert seems extremely unlikely to get to that mark. Barkley has at least 18 touches in three of his past five games, while Mostert has only done it twice in the past six games. Mostert has been one of the best bets to score in any given week, and the Dolphins are massive favorites against the Titans this week, so you have to figure he'll get some opportunities in close this week, too. Barkley, on the other hand, has just five touchdowns this season in nine games, with two of the five coming from outside the 10-yard line. |
| The Giants just don't create a lot of opportunities the way the Dolphins do, but I do have Barkley ranked just ahead of Mostert this week. Part of that is because I do think there's a chance De'Von Achane is on the verge of supplanting Mostert as Miami's lead back, which could put Barkley in line for 10 more touches than him. But it's hard to sit a guy with Barkley's role, even in a bad offense. |
| Sheryl: I have both Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy. Who should I start? |
| I've got both ranked as top-eight QBs this week, but there's just no way I can sit Prescott right now with the way he's playing. The Eagles have a ton of talent on defense, obviously, but they haven't exactly been lights out defensively, and we saw that the last time these two teams played. The Cowboys fell short, but Prescott passed for 374 yards and three touchdowns on 44 attempts, and enters Week 14 with six straight games of multiple touchdowns. He'll have a stinker at some point, and maybe it'll come this week. But given the way Prescott is playing right now, there's no way I can even consider sitting him. |
| Ken: Wonder if you can advise which of the four below I should sit in a standard league: Zack Moss, Kyren Williams, Saquon Barkley, Rashaad White. |
| I hate decisions like this, especially at this point in the season. You want depth, obviously, and it would be weird to say it's possible to have too many good players. However, the truth of the matter is, this game just isn't predictable enough to consistently guess which three of your four top-15 backs are going to be good in any given week. |
| Williams is, I think, the must-start guy even against a defense like the Ravens – he's been way too good all season, really, with at least 15 touches in all but one game, including 11 targets over the past two games. It wouldn't be shocking if Williams and the Rams offense struggled against the Ravens, but he's at the point where I think you just have to trust him against every matchup. I've gone over the merits of White and Barkley, but I'm still sticking with Moss despite an underwhelming showing in Week 13. He finished that game with just 7.7 PPR points, but he ended up with 19 carries and three targets in the game, so the workload was still strong. Moss is the clear lead back here with Jonathan Taylor recovering from thumb surgery, and he's averaged 18.7 PPR points per game in five games where he's been the lead back for the Colts. |
| Jay: Who should I start at my flex: Rashee Rice or James Cook PPR? |
| I'm leaning in Cook's direction right now, but obviously, it's tough to pass on a player like Rice right now. He has 19 targets over the past two games, and he really appears to have arrived as the No. 1 non-Travis Kelce option in the Chiefs offense. The only issue with his usage is that he's still being primarily used on shorter routes, with just 9 air yards last week on his nine targets. He put together a 14.4-PPR point effort despite that, but it's just asking an awful lot for him to keep producing like that when it's almost entirely coming after the catch. He's a solid WR2 in PPR, but I'll give the edge to Cook, who is coming into his own of late as well, with 33 carries and 11 targets over the last two games before the bye. I think Rice probably has the better matchup in this head-to-head one, but Cook has the more valuable role. |
Week 14 injury updates
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| Quarterback |
| Trevor Lawrence (ankle) has not been ruled out, and even got up to a limited practice Thursday. He toughed out a knee injury earlier in the season when it looked like he wouldn't be able to play, but a high-ankle sprain may be asking too much. C.J. Beathard (shoulder) has been limited but is expected to start if Lawrence is out. |
| Derek Carr (concussion, rib, right shoulder) apparently has a chance to play this week against the Panthers, which is just astounding. He's left three different games with shoulder issues this season, as well as two in the past month with concussions, not to mention the rib injury he added last week. And yet, he seemingly has a chance to play. The Saints really must not like Jameis Winston as much as some of us in the Fantasy community. If Carr does try to play through these injuries, I think it's a downgrade for the Saints offense as a whole, even in a great matchup. |
| Lamar Jackson (illness) didn't practice Thursday, as there appears to be an illness going around the Ravens locker room. The good news is, Rashod Bateman missed practice Wednesday before returning Thursday, so hopefully we can assume this is a short-term issue. |
| Geno Smith (groin) was added to the practice report Thursday with a limited session. Hopefully, it ends up being a non-issue by Sunday, but this is one to watch, primarily in those 2QB leagues. |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson (concussion) has not been ruled out for Week 14 against the Jaguars, and the Browns have not announced who will start for them. I'm assuming it'll be Joe Flacco even if Thompson-Robinson isn't cleared, but that's up in the air, for those of you in 2QB leagues. |
| Running back |
| Derrick Henry didn't practice Thursday to open up the week's prep for Monday's game against Miami, but it's not because he left last week's game early. Henry is not in the concussion protocol, and his absence from practice was just due to a normal veteran rest day. He's an RB2 against MIami, and you just have to hope the Titans can keep the score close enough that this doesn't turn into a Tyjae Spears game. |
| Both Kenneth Walker (oblique) and Zach Charbonnet (knee) were upgraded to limited practices Thursday, which doesn't really tell us much about their chances of playing other than they have a chance to play. The Seahawks refused to rule Walker out the previous two weeks even though he didn't practice, so I'm confident they're going to list both guys as questionable today, and we'll just have to wait for some reporting to indicate what their chances of playing are. At this point, I'd be planning on relying on someone else unless we get something more concrete by Sunday. |
| Breece Hall (ankle) hasn't been able to practice yet this week, which is a little bit concerning. He's already a pretty risky start after ceding work to Dalvin Cook last week amid struggles with efficiency in the ground game, and I wouldn't view Cook as anything more than a desperation start if Hall is out; we could see Israel Abanikanda if Hall is out, and he's worth adding in deeper leagues as a potential handcuff. |
| Aaron Jones (knee) was back at practice on a limited basis Thursday, his first time on the field after missing two weeks with the injury. That doesn't mean Jones will play, but it means he has a chance. The tough thing is, the Packers play the Giants Monday night, so unless we know for sure Jones is playing Sunday – or you have an alternative like Tyjae Spears you can play Monday if Jones is out – you might just need to park Jones on your bench Sunday and hope he plays in Week 15. |
| Isiah Pacheco (shoulder) has yet to practice this week, which is a little concerning. It's a shoulder contusion, which doesn't sound too concerning, but obviously if it's keeping Pacheco out of practice two days, it's not nothing. Clyde Edwards-Helaire figures to see a larger role if Pacheco is out, but if you needed to start someone, I'd probably prefer Jerick McKinnon (groin), who was a full participant in practice Thursday. |
| D'Onta Foreman (ankle) continues to practice without limitations this week, so it looks like he's going to be back. The question is what kind of role he's returning to – he has been taking first-team reps ahead of Khalil Herbert in practice, but Roschon Johnson played 74% of the snaps in the Bears' last game without Foreman, so it's pretty tough to predict this one at this point. Johnson and Foreman are more like RB3s for me, while I'd prefer to avoid Herbert if I can at this point. |
| Chase Brown (hamstring) got back up to a full practice Thursday after being limited Wednesday, so he should be good to go. You probably don't want to start Brown, but he's worth rostering as a handcuff for Joe Mixon, certainly. |
| Elijah Mitchell (knee) has yet to practice this week, so it looks like Jordan Mason could be the primary backup for Christian McCaffrey this week. Not that the primary backup for Christian McCaffrey ever plays much, so it's just a handcuff situation. |
| Wide receiver |
| Justin Jefferson (hamstring) has practiced in full all week and remains on track to make his return from IR against the Raiders. He's a must-start WR1, even with Joshua Dobbs at QB. |
| Puka Nacua (shoulder) was a full participant in practice Thursday, which is not unexpected based on how Sean McVay talked about the injury when Nacua was limited Wednesday. Nacua remains a must-start option even in a tough matchup against the Ravens, and even while banged up. |
| Chris Olave (illness) was added to the practice report Thursday after he wasn't able to participate in practice. Hopefully that won't be an issue come Sunday, but it's something to watch heading into the weekend. Olave is a top-20 WR against the Panthers as long as he's active. Rashid Shaheed (thigh) still isn't practicing and looks like he'll miss his second game in a row. |
| Amari Cooper (concussion, ribs) hasn't practiced this week and looks like a long shot to make it back this week. He's a WR3 if he plays, but his absence could push Elijah Moore into a WR3 role, at least for PPR. |
| Christian Kirk (groin) hasn't practiced this week and is expected to undergo season-ending surgery. |
| Christian Watson (hamstring) didn't practice Thursday as the Packers began prep for the Giants on Monday night, which isn't a great sign for his chances of playing. It doesn't necessarily mean Watson won't play, but given his history with hamstring injuries, you have to assume the team will play it as safe as possible. |
| Josh Palmer (knee) has a chance to play this week, but it's definitely not a guarantee as he works his way back from IR. Even if Palmer does return this week, he'd be a risky start given the extended layoff, but you should make sure he's not available on your wire, because he could be a solid starting option down the stretch if he gets healthy. |
| Tyler Boyd (ankle) was added to the injury report Thursday with a limited designation, which is a little concerning. I would hope I don't have to start Boyd this week, whether he's healthy or not. |
| Tight end |
| Dallas Goedert (forearm) sure looks like he's going to make his return this week, putting in full practices Wednesday and Thursday to open the week of practice, he's kind of hard to trust coming back from the injury, but I'm willing to roll him out there if I don't have a top-five-ish alternative. |
| Dalton Schultz (hamstring) was downgraded to a DNP Thursday, after being limited Wednesday. It's not clear if he suffered a setback or if this was just a rest day, but either way, it doesn't bode well for his chances of playing in Week 14 against the Jets. Brevin Jordan is a viable streaming option if Schultz is out. |
| Taysom Hill (foot/hand) hasn't practiced this week, and it looks like there's a real chance he won't be able to go. That isn't guaranteed, so keep an eye on his status for Friday before deciding if you're going to start Hill, who is a top-10 TE if he does go. The good news here is the hand injury is to his non-throwing hand, which matters for this specific tight end. |
| Dawson Knox (wrist) has had his practice window opened and looks like he'll be making his return from IR this week against the Chiefs. Knox wasn't much of a factor for the Bills, averaging just 2.1 receptions for 14.6 yards per game, however Dalton Kincaid has gone from averaging 7.38 PPR points per game with Knox active to 14.22 since he's been out, so it does make him a riskier bet if Knox plays. I'll still rank Kincaid as a top-10 TE, but he's less of a sure thing. |
| Tyler Higbee (neck) looks like he'll be out of the streaming conversation for Week 14, as he hasn't practiced yet this week. He hasn't been ruled out yet, but he's a long shot at this point. |
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