| | | | Wednesday, December 6, 2023 | | One of the things that makes writing about Fantasy Football at this point in the season is everyone needs different kinds of advice. That's, obviously, true for the entire season, but it's especially true when there are just one or two weeks left in the regular season. | | Some of you need immediate help in your must-win games because you can't worry about Week 15 and the playoffs unless you get there. But some of you are already locked into playoff spots and have the luxury to be a little more flexible about how you use your bench spots. | | And you should have two priorities right now: DSTs with good playoff schedules and handcuff running backs. With regards to the former, here are a few to consider that are available in at least 40% of CBS Fantasy leagues as of Tuesday night: | | Rams (vs. WAS in Week 15, vs. NO in Week 16, @NYG in Week 17)Saints (vs. CAR in Week 14, vs. NYG in Week 15)Texans (@NYJ in Week 14, @TEN in Week 15, vs. CLE in Week 16, vs. TEN in Week 17)Colts (vs. PIT in Week 15, @ATL in Week 16, vs. LV in Week 17)Chargers (@LV in Week 15)Seahawks (@TEN in Week 16, vs. PIT in Week 17) | | | | None of those are guaranteed to be great starts for the playoffs, but given the matchups, they all have a chance. I put a bigger priority on Week 15 matchups, because hey, it doesn't matter that the Seahawks have good matchups in Weeks 16 and 17 if you don't get there, but this is the one time of the year when I think it's perfectly reasonable to roster multiple DSTs. | | As for the running back handcuffs, well, you've seen why they're so important in just the past few days, with injuries to the likes of Rhamondre Stevenson and D'Andre Swift sending countless Fantasy players to the waiver wire for their replacements. We can't predict which backs will get hurt between now and the end of the season, but we can be pretty confident that several backs are likely to get hurt. If you don't understand that by this point, you haven't been paying attention closely enough. | | The key is to identify which backs are likely to be in line for a significant workload if the guy in front of them gets hurt. Obviously, we can't predict that perfectly, but it didn't take a crystal ball to see that when Kenneth Walker got hurt a few weeks ago, Zach Charbonnet would play a huge, three-down role for the Seahawks. That's the kind of handcuff we're looking for. | | In today's newsletter, I've got 12 handcuffs to make sure aren't on your wire, just in case they get thrust into a starting role for the Fantasy playoffs. We've also got Heath Cummings' previews for the QB, RB, WR, and TE positions to help set your lineups for Week 14, and later today we'll have Jamey Eisenberg's Start 'Em & Sit 'Em calls to help out even more. | | Whether you're playing for it all in Week 14 or have an eye on Week 15 and beyond, we're here to help. And, in that spirit, I'm going to do a mailbag on Friday with your questions to try to provide even more specific help. Send your questions to Chris.Towers@Paramount.com with the subject line "#AskFTT" to get your questions included: | | My Week 14 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | | | | The top RB handcuffs to stash | | | | In all likelihood, only one or two of these guys will end up mattering between now and Week 17. But you should look at it this way: If any of them do matter, they're likely going to matter in a way that could drastically shift championship odds in your leagues, and you'd rather be a week too early to add them than having to fight with the rest of your league mates over them by the time we know for sure which ones will matter. | | There are no specific criteria here, but I tried to focus on players who are at least somewhat widely available and who should have a clear path to a lead RB role on their rosters if an injury does happen: | | Tyjae Spears, Titans – I considered whether Spears even counts here because he has his own role, outsnaps Derrick Henry pretty regularly, and was a high-priority addition on waivers this week before we learned that Henry wasn't actually in the concussion protocol. But, of all the backup RBs out there, he seems best positioned to be an absolute league-winner if he gets the opportunity, thanks to a combination of a run-heavy offense, talent, and a legit three-down skill set. He might be a top-12 RB if Henry has to miss time. Elijah Mitchell, 49ers – I remain surprised at how little run Mitchell has gotten this season, with just three games with more than five carries, a mark he hit five times in six games even after they acquired Christian McCaffrey last season. He won't replicate McCaffrey's role in the passing game, but Mitchell averaged 100 yards from scrimmage and 15 PPR points per game as a rookie and could do it again if McCaffrey misses any time down the stretch. Rico Dowdle, Cowboys – Dowdle is already starting to carve out a role for himself in the Cowboys offense, and obviously, that's a great offense to be a part of. The running backs there are averaging 5.7 targets per game, run behind an excellent offensive line, and have had 32 touches inside the 10-yard line this season. The only reason Dowdle isn't one of the top two handcuffs here is that I'm just not sure the former undrafted RB is as talented as Spears or Mitchell. It may not matter in this offense if he gets the chance. Antonio Gibson, Commanders – Gibson gets a boost here just because the RB in front of him is already hurt, as Brian Robinson left last week's game with a hamstring injury. He's got the bye in Week 14 to recover, but if the injury lingers, Gibson could be in line for 10-plus carries and 4-6 targets; rookie Chris Rodriguez will also play a role, though likely only in the running game. Gibson could absolutely still be a top-24 RB if Robinson misses time. Tyler Allgeier, Falcons – I wasn't sure if Allgeier qualifies here, given his typical 8-12 carry role most weeks. But I've added him where he got dropped in a few leagues because that would probably be 15-18 touches if something happens to Bijan Robinson. Kendre Miller, Saints – Jamaal Williams is the direct backup to Alvin Kamara, but if Kamara went down, I think we'd see Miller fill more of the passing game role, and that's what's important in this offense. I don't think Miller would come close to being a 1:1 replacement for Kamara, but he probably has more upside than Williams – who should be rostered too, for what it's worth. D'Ernest Johnson/Tank Bigsby, Jaguars – I think Johnson has the edge here if Travis Etienne goes down based on recent usage, but I do think Bigsby might have more upside as a short-yardage option; Johnson has played 40% and 36% of the snaps the past two weeks and has 12 carries and two receptions, so they just haven't been making him a focal point. Jaleel McLaughlin, Broncos – Samaje Perine is the No. 2 back here, but I kind of think his role might be what it is; he's the third-down back and occasional change-of-pace option, but McLaughlin is more of a playmaker, and a more natural replacement for what Javonte Williams does. There's plenty of room for McLaughlin to matter if something happens to Williams, even with Perine's role. Chase Brown, Bengals – I've been wondering if we'd see the rookie at some point this season, and he provided a spark Monday against the Jaguars, rushing for 61 yards on nine carries. The Bengals obviously trust and value Mixon, despite his generally pretty mediocre production, so I don't think Brown is coming for his job. But if something happens to Mixon, Brown figures to be the next man up, and we've seen that be a pretty valuable spot to be in in the past. Royce Freeman , Rams – Freeman returned to the realm of the pure handcuffs in Week 13, but he's looked surprisingly solid this season when given the opportunity, averaging 4.6 yards per carry on 64 attempts. Kyren Williams is probably going to keep playing nearly every snap for as long as he can, but he's missed time in both NFL seasons with high-ankle sprains, so there's definitely some risk there. Leonard Fournette, Bills – This one feels like a total longshot, I'll be honest. Fournette hasn't been activated from the practice squad since signing back in late October, and Latavius Murray's presence suggests Fournette may not have a role. On the other hand, Fournette gives the Bills much more as a pass-catcher in the event something happens to James Cook, and that's why I would prioritize him over Murray. Joshua Kelley, Chargers – What makes Kelley so tough to get excited about is that we've already seen him as the lead back in this version of the Chargers offense, and he was a total flop, scoring 13.1 PPR points total in three starts despite playing at least 60% of the snaps in each game. It's that role we're chasing, but it doesn't look like a can't miss situation anymore; just ask anyone with Austin Ekeler in their lineup right now. | | | 🔍Week 14 Position Previews
| | Every Tuesday, Heath Cummings previews each position, providing injury insights, key stats to know, the best waiver-wire adds, DFS targets, and more for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Here's a brief rundown of each position, along with some key details you need to know before you go read Heath's full breakdowns: | | QB Preview | | "I'm starting my studs this week at quarterback. That includes Patrick Mahomes, who as only topped 21 Fantasy points once in his last five games. That also includes Justin Herbert , who has scored just 23.4 Fantasy points in his last two starts. That's partially because injuries have completely decimated the ability to stream anything better than 18 FPPG at quarterback this season. It's also because I still believe that Mahomes and Herbert have too much upside to bench. | | Between the two of them, Mahomes and Herbert have five 30-point outbursts this season, but only one since Week 8. Herbert has lost multiple starting receivers to injury and Austin Ekeler hasn't looked like himself. Mahomes' has dealt with some brutal touchdown and drop luck and Travis Kelce may look just a little bit older. | | If you still need a little convincing that this could be the week for Mahomes, just look at his history against the Bills. He has played five career games against Buffalo. He's averaged 307 yards passing and 38 yards rushing per game. He's thrown multiple touchdowns in every game against the Bills. Herbert hasn't been quite as impressive against Denver, but he has averaged 20.4 FPPG in his first six starts against them." | On a bye: Kyler Murray and Sam HowellInjuries: Trevor Lawrence (ankle), Derek Carr (concussion), Kenny Pickett (ankle), Tyrod Taylor (ribs) and Dorian Thompson-Robinson (concussion)Number to know: 127.6 -- Justin Fields is averaging more than 125 rushing yards in his last three games against the Lions.
Matchup that matters: Gardner Minshew @CIN (17th vs. QB)Waiver add/streamer: Gardner Minshew, Colts: "Minshew finally delivered last week with 312 yards and two touchdowns against the Titans. Now he faces a Bengals defense that has allowed four of the last five QBs they've faced to score at least 20 Fantasy points. I would expect Minshew to be right in that range this week." | | RB Preview | | "Occasionally we take time in this space just to appreciate greatness. And Kyren Williams has been great. | | Considering he was a fifth round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft who only had 35 carries for 139 yards as a rookie, you'd be forgiven if you were skeptical of Williams' hot start, but the time for skepticism has long past. Williams is RB3 on the season per game and has topped 100 total yards in four of his last five games. He has 11 targets over his past two games and has scored in all but two games this year. | | This is the type of resume that gets you ranked as a must-start running back even against the worst of matchups, and the Baltimore Ravens are certainly a bad matchup. But considering that Williams just delivered 20.2 Fantasy points against the Browns and earlier this season scored 28 Fantasy points against the 49ers, you must ignore the matchup and start your stud in this instance. " | On a bye: James Conner, Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson Injuries: Injuries: Brian Robinson Jr. (hamstring), D'Andre Swift (undisclosed), Derrick Henry (head), Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle), Jonathan Taylor (thumb), Aaron Jones (knee), Kenneth Walker III (oblique), Zach Charbonnet (knee), D'Onta Foreman (ankle) and Jerick McKinnon (groin)Number to know: 13.7% -- Jaylen Warren leads all backs (minimum 60 rushes) with a 13.7% explosive run rate. He's an upside flex this week in a terrible matchup.
Matchup that matters: Khalil Herbert vs. DET (18th vs. RB)Waiver add: Ezekiel Elliott, Patriots: "Elliott is my favorite waiver add if you need a Week 14 band-aid. This offense has ranked in the top ten in terms of running back target rate this year and Bailey Zappe has kept it up with 22% of his passes going to backs. The Steelers were just gashed for 130 yards and two TDs on the ground by another veteran, James Conner, and now they're on a short week."Stash: Chase Brown, Bengals: "Brown popped for the first time on Monday Night Football, picking up 61 yards on nine rushes against the Jaguars. He's still just a bench stash for now, but an injury to Joe Mixon would thrust Brown into Fantasy lineups." | | WR Preview | | "I used to write a column here in the offseason on regression candidates, guys who couldn't repeat their unsustainably good production. It was often correct, but never popular. No one wants to hear about how the guy who did great things probably can't keep them up. If I was still writing it, I would have written about Courtland Sutton multiple times this season and I would have egg all over my face. | | What stands out about Sutton is obvious; his 12% touchdown rate. He's scored nine times on 75 targets this season. From 2020 through 2022 he scored four touchdowns on 213 targets. Virtually no one scores at a 10% clip, much less a 12% clip, so regression is coming at some point, just maybe not this year. | | To put this in context, Sutton currently ranks 35th in receptions, 29th in receiving yards, and 18th in PPR Fantasy points. His touchdowns have turned a No. 3 wide receiver into a must-start No. 2. Regression analysis would tell you this won't last. At least for Week 14, I don't care." | On a bye: Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Jahan Dotson, Marquise Brown, Michael Wilson, Rondale Moore and Greg Dortch Injuries: Justin Jefferson (hamstring), Tank Dell (leg), Puka Nacua (shoulder), Christian Kirk (groin), Amari Cooper (concussion), Marquise Brown (heel), Christian Watson (hamstring), Rashid Shaheed (quadriceps), Michael Thomas (knee), Demario Douglas (head), Josh Palmer (knee) and Michael Wilson (shoulder)Number to know: 41 -- Michael Pittman has seen 41 targets in his last three games. He's a borderline top-five wide receiver against the Bengals this week.
Matchup that matters: Noah Brown @NYJ (1st vs. WR)Waiver add: Jonathan Mingo, Panthers: "Mingo saw a season-high 10 targets in the Panthers first game since their coaching change. It was his fourth straight game with at least six targets and his second game in a row with double-digit PPR Fantasy points. He has top 24 upside in this role, but he'll have to get into the end zone to make that happen, which he hasn't done yet." Stash: Demario Douglas , Patriots: "Douglas is still in the concussion protocol and his team plays on Thursday, so he may be dropped in more leagues than he's added in this week. Still, he had 18 targets in his last two games and I expect him to be right back in that role once he's healthy. That would make him a WR3 in the Fantasy playoffs." | | TE Preview | | "Taysom Hill is TE12 on the season per game averaging 10 Fantasy points per game. But if Derek Carr is going to miss significant time, Hill could be much better than that in the near future. | | It's been a tale of two seasons for Hill with 65% of his rushing production, 58% of his targets, and all of his touchdowns coming in the last six weeks. Over that stretch he's actually TE5, averaging 14.9 FPPG. With Derek Carr hurt, more likely that Hill's role grows than shrinks. | | Hill matched his season-high with 15 touches in Week 13 and it's hard to see why the team would go away from that. He's averaging 4.9 yards per carry on the season compared to 3.8 for Alvin Kamara and 2.8 for Jamaal Williams. And Hill's 6.9 yards per target is better than Kamara, Williams, or fellow tight end Juwan Johnson. With Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed both hurt, a Chris Olave target is about the only thing more valuable to the Saints than a hill touch right now. | | There was a time when I begrudgingly would call Hill a start "if you don't have a tight end you like." We're past that now and if Carr misses significant time it wouldn't be that surprising if Hill is a league winner at tight end in the playoffs." | On a bye: Trey McBride and Logan ThomasInjuries: Dalton Schultz (hamstring), Dallas Goedert (forearm), Tyler Higbee (neck), Luke Musgrave (abdomen), Darren Waller (hamstring), Zach Ertz (quadriceps), Dawson Knox (wrist) and Greg Dulcich (hamstring). Number to know: 15.2 -- Cole Kmet has four games with at least 15.2 PPR Fantasy points. He's a start this week despite his Week 11 stinker against Detroit.
Matchup that matters: Evan Engram @CLE (16th vs. TE) Streamer: Isaiah Likely, Ravens : "I have very mixed feelings about Likely this week, and wouldn't start him over anyone you normally start. But the role in this offense combine his athleticism does give him significant upside. He showed that upside twice last year, topping 18 Fantasy points, but he also has averaged less than five FPPG in three games that Andrews has played less than half the snaps." | | | | | | | | NFL Slimetime | | Pick Six | Watch NFL Slimetime, co-hosted by Nate Burleson and Young Dylan, on Wednesdays at 7:30/6:30c on Nickelodeon and streaming the next day on Paramount+!
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