We've got a whole bunch of injury news and major performances to get to this weekend, so there's no need for a long intro this week. Let's just get right to everything you need to know before you set your lineup for Week 16 of the Fantasy Baseball season. 

I went deep on Brandon Woodruff's first start back from shoulder surgery, and you should click here to read my full thoughts on this start . The short version is, he pitched incredibly well, much better than I expected him to, and I'm still a little skeptical about how sustainable that is with his significantly diminished velocity (down 2.7 mph in this one). But I'm much more open to the possibility of Woodruff remaining a must-start pitcher after this start than I was before it. That's not nothing. Here's what else you need to know before you set your lineups for Week 16. 

• C: Samuel Basallo, Orioles (31%) 
• 1B: Nate Lowe, Nationals (50%) 
  
• 2B: Tyler Freeman, Rockies (32%)
• 3B: Royce Lewis, Twins (65%)
• SS: Otto Lopez, Marlins (60%) 
• OF: Addison Barger, Blue Jays (67%), Tyler O'Neill, Orioles (43%), Chandler Simpson, Rays (57%)
• SP: Emmet Sheehan, Dodgers (57%), Edward Cabrera, Marlins (66%), Joe Boyle, Rays (32%), Trevor Rogers, Orioles (41%)
• RP: Daniel Palencia, Cubs (65%), Ronny Henriquez, Marlins (30%)

For more deep-league targets, plus my thoughts on each of those players and more, head here. 

Best hitter matchups for Week 16

1. Reds MIA4, COL3
2. Marlins @CIN4, @BAL3
3. Blue Jays @CHW3, @ATH3
4.  Mets @BAL3, @KC3
5. Guardians @HOU3, @CHW4  

Worst hitter matchups for Week 16

1. Yankees SEA3, CHC3
2. Tigers TB3, SEA3
3. Phillies @SF3, @SD3
4.  Padres ARI4, PHI3
5. Pirates @KC3, @MIN3  

Top sleeper hitters for Week 16

1. Austin Hays, OF, Reds (51%) MIA4, COL3
2. Addison Barger, 3B, Blue Jays (67%) @CHW3, @ATH3
3. Kyle Stowers, OF, Marlins (68%) @CIN4, @BAL3
4. Joshua Lowe, OF, Rays (73%) @DET3, @BOS4
5. Otto Lopez, SS, Marlins (55%) @CIN4, @BAL3

You can check out Scott's two-start pitcher rankings here, too. He ranks every projected two-start pitcher for the upcoming week, tiering them from must-starts to no-thanks. 

Top sleeper pitchers for Week 16

1. Jose Soriano, Angels (75%) vs. TEX, vs. ARI
2. Eury Perez, Marlins (75%) at CIN, at BAL
3. Brady Singer, Reds (73%) vs. MIA, vs. COL
4. Nick Martinez , Reds (51%) vs. MIA, vs. COL
5. Lucas Giolito, Red Sox (72%) vs. COL

Good pitchers

Zack Wheeler, Phillies vs. CIN: 9 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 12 K – As good as Wheeler has been for as long as he's been good, this might be the very best he's ever pitched. Wheeler already has four games with 10 strikeouts, matching his third-best total for a season, and he has his strikeout rate over 30% for the first time, while also allowing a .338 xwOBA on contact, one of the best marks of any season in his career. At some point, the 35-year-old is going to slow down, but if you avoided him because of his age, it looks like you jumped the gun.

Paul Skenes, Pirates @SEA: 5 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 10 K – Five shutout innings with 10 strikeouts and he didn't get a win. Paul Skenes hasn't recorded a win since May 28, despite posting a 1.55 ERA in seven starts in that span. The Pirates have the second-worst offense in baseball right now by wOBA, and the only team worse (the White Sox, naturally) doesn't have an in-his-prime, generational talent at pitcher who is currently healthy. That probably won't be true forever, and they just totally punted on this season. They didn't score a single run in this series. Words cannot describe my level of frustration with this organization. 

George Kirby, Mariners vs. PIT: 6.1 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K – In fairness to the Pirates hitters … no, you know what, I will not be fair to them! Kirby is an ace, but he's hardly pitched like one this season after a spring shoulder injury. In fairness to Kirby, you can only go against who is on the schedule, and it's not like this was his first good start – he has now allowed just two runs over three consecutive quality starts. One positive sign for Kirby is that he threw the whole arsenal today after basically avoiding the splitter and curveball in his previous outing. That's a sign that he's feeling more like himself, I think, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he went on a big run moving forward. We know the talent is there. 

Chase Burns, Reds @PHI: 4.2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 7 K – I went back and forth on whether to include this one under the "good" or "bad" heading, but I opted to take a positive view. The Phillies aren't an easy matchup, and while he struggled with the walks in this one, Burns' fastball and slider were generating healthy swing-and-miss numbers (13 combined), and I think he mostly executed what he wanted to in this one. Was Burns' command spotless? By no means! But he mostly avoided the middle of the strike zone, and after the way he got bombed in his previous outing, that feels more important than anything else. The stuff is terrific; the approach remains a work in progress. I'll keep betting on Burns' talent. 

Kevin Gausman , Blue Jays vs. LAA: 5.2 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 9 K – Four strikeouts, and then six; three in the next start, followed by nine. That's how Gausman's past four starts have gone, but it's also pretty much how his past two seasons have gone. The upside for starts like these is still there because that splitter can still be filthy, but he clearly can't execute on a start-by-start basis the way he used to. I've probably made this point a dozen times over the past year, mostly because I feel like I need to remind myself to not get too excited about these flashes of the former upside. 

Gavin Williams, Guardians vs. DET: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 8 K – Williams really needed this one after consecutive starts with more walks than strikeouts (and three of the past five starts). If you were wavering about dropping Williams, this is probably enough to keep him on your roster – though I would at least consider dropping him if Edward Cabrera were available in my league. Is it enough to trust Williams in my lineup this week? Against the White Sox? Yeah, probably. 

Casey Mize, Tigers @CLE: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – Mize might be the new Andrew Abbott – the pitcher I just keep banging my head against the wall with while he just keeps lowering his ERA. He hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in a start since May 30 and has allowed more than three just two times all season … and I just don't really buy it. Pitchers have some control over the quality of contact they allow, but it's an incredibly noisy stat that tends to be very volatile from one year to the next – to wit, among 65 pitchers who qualified for the ERA total in 2024 and currently qualify, only four have an expected wOBA on contact below .350 in both seasons. By comparison, five of last year's qualifiers have a .370 mark or worse. The league average is .368, while Mize is down at .338, and that's the biggest reason his ERA is as low as it is. Maybe some combination of Mize's new pitch mix and his improved command this season are enough to explain this apparent step forward, but I'm skeptical and I still view him as a sell-high candidate. He's made that look bad for a few months now. 

Lucas Giolito, Red Sox @WAS: 7.2 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 7 K – Giolito is another one I don't fully buy into. Kudos to him for turning his season around after it looked like he might not even belong in the majors in his first month or so back from his injury, as he's now down to a 3.66 ERA for the season and a 0.83 ERA over his current five-start quality start streak. However, he's only had more strikeouts than innings once in that stretch, and when you dig into his pitch profile, everything looks pretty underwhelming – he doesn't have a whiff rate over 26.2% on any of his four pitches, and his quality of contact metrics across his three most-used pitches are pretty pedestrian. Giolito still looks more like a streamer than a set-it-and-forget-it option, but there's good news on that front: He gets the Rockies away from Coors Field this week, so fire him up!

Ryne Nelson, Diamondbacks vs. KC: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K – Nelson's "One Weird Trick" for getting hitters out keeps working. He threw his four-seamer 70% of the time in this one and put together this terrific start despite just three swinging strikes with it. This is the weirdest thing about Nelson: He relies more heavily on one pitch than any other pitcher in baseball, but it's not a pitch that generates a ton of swing and miss; among 200 pitchers who have ended at least 50 plate appearances this season with their four-seamer, Nelson's 19.9% whiff rate with the pitch is just the 110th highest. But he generates a ton of weak contact with it, which is why BaseballSavant.com has it tied for the most valuable four-seamer in the majors by Run Value. I think at some point this trick will stop working, but he's been doing it for over a year now, so I'm inclined to just stick with him until he falters. 

Trevor Rogers, Orioles @ATL: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – This is probably the best stretch of Rogers' career since 2021, and he was one of the most exciting young pitchers in the league back then, so maybe we need to start taking this run seriously? I'm skeptical. In 2021, Rogers' stuff rated out significantly better than it is right now, with a 100 Stuff+ rating (100 is average), compared to a 92 this season, per FanGraphs.com . Rogers is executing at a high level right now, obviously, and the fact that he's turned himself back into a legitimate rotation contributor is a big win for him and the Orioles. But I think he's more likely to settle in as a high-3.00s ERA pitcher with middling strikeout numbers, so I don't think he really needs to be universally rostered. But I do think it's fine to stream him this week against the Marlins. 

Charlie Morton, Orioles @BAL: 5.1 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – I'm slightly inclined to believe in Morton's current hot streak, mostly because even when things were going terribly for him early in the season, his stuff still looked mostly intact, but he just couldn't throw strikes. That started to change in May, and he's down to a 3.37 ERA with 58 strikeouts to 14 walks in 50.2 innings since May 1. I'm not saying I think Morton is back to being a must-start pitcher or anything, but he's back to being useful, at least. I'm not sure I want to trust him against the Mets this week, but he'll face some combination of the Rays, Guardians, and Rockies in his first two starts back from the All-Star break, and I think it's fine to keep him around through then – and then let's see if and when he gets traded before figuring out how long to hang on to him for. 

Adrian Houser, White Sox @COL: 8 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – Houser's ERA is now down to 1.60 on the season over eight starts. He doesn't get many strikeouts and he plays for a bad team, so I understand why there isn't a ton of interest in him for Fantasy. But I do think it's weird that he's rostered in fewer leagues right now than Jose Quintana, Tomoyuki Sugano, JP Sears, or Bailey Falter . I don't think Houser is great, but he's been very useful for Fantasy in the past and is throwing harder than he has since he used to be good. I wouldn't want to trust him against the Blue Jays, but his 3.50 xERA deserves more respect, I think. 

Eric Lauer, Blue Jays vs. LAA: 6 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – Lauer's success looks a bit more sustainable than Houser's since it isn't built quite as much on generating a lot of ground balls. But I'm still not quite sure what to make of it. We've got a low-90s fastball generating a ton of weak fly balls, and then a deep arsenal without a true go-to pitch. It reminds me a little of Bowden Francis 's success last season, and we saw how that went in a larger sample size. Still, Lauer is pitching very well right now, with his 2.65 ERA backed up by a 3.21 xERA, and he's a viable streamer for the red-hot Blue Jays with a matchup on the way against the White Sox this week. 

Bad pitching performances 

Drew Rasmussen , Rays @MIN: 2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K – The Rays have been diligent about limiting Rasmussen's innings this season, and if you thought it was a source of frustration before, it's about to get a lot worse. The Rays called up Joe Boyle on Sunday and had him piggyback off Rasmussen, who threw just the two innings. And that was the plan going in. It's not exactly clear if the Rays are going to keep limiting Rasmussen to just two innings moving forward, but the team has designs on the playoffs and wants to limit him to 150 innings for the season, giving him around 60 left the rest of the way. Over 13-15 scheduled starts, that doesn't give you much wiggle room. I think we may see a lot of these extremely truncated starts from Rasmussen in the second half, and I'm not sure he's a must-roster player as a result. I might just prefer Joe Boyle to him at this point. 

Carlos Rodon, Yankees @NYM: 5 IP, 5 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 4 K – Rodon's in a little bit of a rough stretch, with a 4.61 ERA since the start of June. And, given his inconsistency over the past few years, it's reasonable to be worried that this might be the start of him falling apart. I don't really see it, honestly. His whiff rate and quality of contact metrics for most of his pitchers were still very good in June – down a bit on the whole, but he still had three pitches with a whiff rate of at least 32.4% and an xwOBA no higher than .322. This was a bad start amid a string of mediocre ones, but I don't see too much to panic about yet. 

Jesus Luzardo, Phillies vs. CIN: 2 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 4 K – I mostly feel the same about Luzardo, honestly. Since his disastrous, 20-runs-in-two-starts stretch, he has settled in with a 4.38 ERA, which is mediocre; but he also has 32 strikeouts in 24.2 innings of work, with the biggest issue being 11 walks in that same span. It's been frustrating, but hardly a reason to panic, and if it wasn't for the two truly terrible starts, I imagine we wouldn't even have noticed this bump in the road. The 4.44 ERA is what it is, but I think he'll be much better than that moving forward. 

Sandy Alcantara , Marlins vs. MIL: 6 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – If you want to drop Alcantara for someone like Sheehan or even teammate Edward Cabrera, I think that's defensible. But I will say, the fact that he has thrown at least six innings in five of his past six starts feels like a promising sign, even if he still has a 4.88 ERA in that stretch. His command and control have been much better in this stretch, and I feel like he isn't far from being a really useful pitcher for Fantasy. But he isn't there yet, and it's been long enough that I think it's reasonable to have lost patience. 

Jacob Lopez, Athletics vs. SF: 4.1 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – Lopez has struggled over his past two starts, but it's interesting that he hasn't struggled in the ways you would expect – he has given up just two homers among his seven runs in 7.2 innings in this stretch. He still has nine strikeouts to just two walks, too. It could have gone a lot worse, though I will say, it's been shaky enough that I'm probably sitting him this week against the Blue Jays. But the good news is, the Athletics open the second half with starts against the Guardians and Rangers , so I do think you'll want him in your lineup for those two. 

Eduardo Rodriguez, Diamondbacks vs. KC: 4.1 IP, 12 H, 8 ER, 0 BB, 7 K – Rodriguez's peripherals are significantly better than his actual numbers this season, but at some point, the blowups just aren't worth the risk. Coming off a month where he put up a 1.98 ERA with 28 strikeouts to nine walks in 27.1 innings, Rodriguez was tagged for eight runs for the second time this season; it was his third start with at least six earned runs allowed as well. Is the upside high enough here to make the landmines worth the risk? I don't really think so. 

Mike Soroka , Nationals vs. BOS: 4 IP, 9 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – This is another frustrating one, as Soroka looked like he was turning things around with 36 strikeouts and a 3.49 ERA in 28.1 innings in June. Soroka's slurve was dominant as usual in this one, but his four-seamer got hit hard, and his changeup and sinker were even. The changeup has shown some promise as a swing-and-miss pitch, but his command of it is shaky, and his four-seamer tends to get hit hard when he misses his spots, too. I still look at Soroka's 3.19 xERA and think he's worth hanging on to, but this step back makes it harder to justify. 

Hitters 

Trevor Story, SS, Red Sox – Story has been streaky this season, but then you look up and see a solid enough .252 average and a near 25-homer, 25-pace. He's hot right now, homering twice this weekend and three times in his past seven games, but he's also 71% rostered already, and I have a hard time seeing the case for Story being worth starting in most points leagues, which makes it hard to argue he needs to be added in too many leagues. He's fine right where he is, just get ready to sit him when he gets cold again. 

Jasson Dominguez, OF, Yankees – Dominguez has been putting together better trips to the plate lately and it finally manifested in a two-homer game Friday. Dominguez has been a disappointment in his first full season, and the Yankees' crowded lineup leaves him on the bench more than you'd like. But it's worth stepping back and realizing he's a 22-year-old with a long history of injuries who is holding his own at the MLB level, with a 15-plus homer, 30-steal pace over 150 games. He's still a pretty fringe-y Fantasy option right now, but it's easy to see him still becoming the difference maker we hoped he would be down the road. 

Christian Walker, 1B, Astros – Walker went 4 for 5 Friday amid an 18-1 explosion for the Astros, and then he followed it up with another homer Sunday. It's a much-needed sign of life from a 34-year-old who has mostly looked finished this season. Maybe a spring oblique injury has been holding him back all season, but let's hope he can build on this big weekend. 

Michael Busch , 1B, Cubs – Busch homered four times this weekend and even started against a lefty Saturday, which is a good sign. Busch is having a terrific season, sporting a .950 OPS more than halfway through the schedule, but his value is held back a bit because he doesn't play every day against lefties and doesn't hit well when he does face them. And, unfortunately, with a .266 xwOBA against southpaws on the season, I'm not sure how much that's going to change. I'm more inclined to view Busch as a sell-high candidate right now than someone I feel comfortable building around the rest of the way. 

Clarke Schmidt will likely need Tommy John surgery, which is tough timing as it will likely cost him most, if not all, of next season. Prospect Cam Schlittler is expected to take Schmidt's spot in the rotation, and he's an interesting talent who is worth a look in some deeper leagues as he makes his expected debut this week. 

Hunter Greene will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A on Tuesday. He is working his way back from a troublesome groin injury and a back issue, and hopefully, we'll see him after the All-Star break. 

The Diamondbacks reinstated Corbin Carroll on Saturday, as he missed just over two weeks with a fractured wrist. Carroll struck out four times Sunday and five times across nine plate appearances, and I do worry they might have rushed him back, but I think you probably have to get him back in your lineups no matter what. 

Wyatt Langford was also reinstated by the Rangers. He's dealt with multiple oblique injuries, and I'm fine letting Langford hit his way back into my lineup, rather than viewing him as an automatic activation this week.

Blake Snell will throw two innings in a rehab game next week and could return to the big-league rotation in late July. He's been out since early April with a shoulder injury. 

Tyler Glasnow will make a start on the Dodgers' upcoming road trip before the All-Star break. I'd rather give him a start to get his feet under him before I activate him, especially since if I leave Glasnow in an IL spot this week, I'll both get a free look at him before activating him and I'll get an extra week before I have to figure out who to drop for him. 

Tommy Edman and Teoscar Hernandez were both out of the lineup Sunday for the Dodgers Sunday. Edman is dealing with a toe injury, while Hernandez got imaging on his left foot. Hopefully, both are short-term injuries. 

Michael King isn't yet throwing off a mound, but he's pain-free and has been able to increase the intensity and distance of his throws as he works his way back from a pinched nerve in his throwing shoulder. 

Pablo Lopez will start throwing this week after an MRI showed his inflammation and swelling are totally gone. Maybe he could be back sometime in August if all goes well. 

Grayson Rodriguez threw 25 pitches, including fastballs and breaking balls, in a bullpen Friday. He's likely at least a month away, but this is a good sign. 

Anthony Santander could begin swinging a bat late next week. He's been out since May 30 due to a shoulder issue.

Max Scherzer was only able to throw four innings Saturday due to significant thumb inflammation. I don't think he's a must-roster player at this point. 

MacKenzie Gore will get extra rest before making his next start Wednesday.

Jazz Chisholm was out of the lineup Sunday with a shoulder injury. He said he's been dealing with it for three weeks. We wouldn't know, he's been crushing the ball, so I'm not too worried right now. 

Yu Darvish will make his season debut Monday against the Diamondbacks, and I would definitely prefer to keep him on my bench for that one as he shakes off the rust. 

Luis Gil may start a minor-league rehab assignment this week.

Shane Bieber said Saturday that he will likely throw one more live bullpen before returning to game action. He's working his way back from Tommy John surgery and will probably need at least three weeks on a rehab assignment before he's ready to return. 

With Brandon Woodruff back for the Brewers, Chad Patrick was sent to Triple-A.

Masataka Yoshida will return from the IL during Boston's upcoming homestand. He'll likely split time between DH and the outfield, though there has been talk of trying him out at first base as a potential solution to that hole in the Red Sox lineup. 

The Phillies optioned Mick Abel back to Triple-A. We're officially on Andrew Painter watch, so let's hope his upcoming starts go well. 

The Nationals fired their GM Mike Rizzo and their manager Dave Martinez.

Players who went on the IL this weekend:

Rhys Hoskins with a Grade 2 left thumb sprain

Jameson Taillon with a right calf strain

Gary Sanchez due to a sprained right knee. The Orioles added Alex Jackson, but maybe we could see top prospect Samuel Basallo soon. Probably not, given how the Orioles have operated in recent years. 

Lane Thomas with plantar fasciitis on his right foot. Maybe we'll finally see outfield prospect Chase DeLauter soon. That's a name to know and potentially stash.

Andres Gimenez with a left ankle sprain

Pavin Smith with a right oblique strain

The Yankees signed Jeimer Candelario to a minor-league contract. They desperately need a third baseman and he'll get a chance to show he's not totally washed up.