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| Friday, December 20, 2024 |
| ICYMI: Week 16 Beyond the Box Score episode |
| Week 16 Start/Sit -- Flex Rankings |
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| Week 16 fill-ins |
| Tyjae Spears has never had an opportunity like the one that may await him if Tony Pollard misses Week 16. He has always worked as the complement to Derrick Henry or Pollard during his time as a pro. |
| The data in the below image may be too small to read, apologies if so. I hope that you can zoom in and navigate around if curious. If so, you can explore the RB leaders in PPR points per touch during the combined 2023-24 seasons (minimum 200 touches). Jahmyr Gibbs ranks as the RB2, no surprise. He's my Fantasy RB1 for Week 16 with David Montgomery out of the picture. |
| Spears ranks as the RB5 in PPR points per touch since entering the NFL. |
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| Spears does not offer as much top-end scoring potential as some of the running backs who I have ranked behind him. The Titans are only implied to score 19.5 points in Week 16, per Vegas odds. For reference, I attached the corresponding implied team total for each of the four running backs that I have ranked immediately behind Spears -- any of that group feels more likely to reach the end zone (potentially multiple times!) than Spears. Keep that in mind if you feel like you are at a disadvantage in your projected Fantasy matchup and want to swing for more upside. |
| Spears put up a huge point total in Week 15, but he also found the end zone twice. Prior to that, Spears had scattered four offensive touchdowns across 26 career games. |
| Implied team totals in Week 16: |
23 points -- Indianapolis Colts (Taylor - I literally moved Taylor ahead of Jones and Hall in my rankings after realizing this)
22.75 points -- Minnesota Vikings (Jones)
21.75 -- New York Jets (Hall)
21 points -- Washington Commanders (Robinson) |
| I'm not sure what to expect from Patrick Taylor Jr., but he's not the worst option if in a pinch at RB. My brother and I are co-managing a Dynasty team that is loaded at every position except for RB. Last week, we lost David Montgomery. We're now staring at a Q next to Tyrone Tracy Jr.'s name. Our remaining running backs were Tracy, Jaylen Warren, Ray Davis, and Ameer Abdullah. Patrick Taylor may be a god send for this team. Even if Tracy plays, we're considering starting Taylor ahead of Warren. |
| Here, you can watch Taylor's longest runs as a pro. And below, you'll see where I have Taylor ranked. |
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| The last fill-in RB that I wanna hit on in this space is Jerome Ford, and then we need to talk about Michael Penix Jr. as the new starting QB for the Atlanta Falcons. |
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| Ford's big-play upside is enough to make him an elite flex option in my mind. Unless the rest of your team is healthy and rolling and you don't feel much need to swing for a big score in the flex spot, then I think my answer to most start/sit questions in the flex would be Ford. |
| Do recognize that there's significant risk. Vegas has Cleveland implied for only 19 points. We've seen the Dorian Thompson-Robinson experience be a travesty in the past, and that experience often involves not targeting the RB position. I think that the Browns are missing so many playmakers that Ford will be emphasized in the offense, but Cleveland has shown reluctance to fully fill his plate at times. A quiet day in a low-scoring performance from the Browns offense is definitely on the table for Ford. |
| Penix Jr. might present the most interesting risk-reward proposition of any fill-in option in Week 16. Here, you can watch 22 pro dropbacks (16 in the preseason, six in regular season action) that Penix Jr. has put on film thus far. I'm hoping that we see him eclipse that number with ease in Week 16, but that may be optimistic. The Falcons leaned almost all weight onto Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier in Week 15. |
| If Atlanta does choose to get a longer look at Penix Jr. in Week 16, the matchup is certainly exciting! The Giants have been by far the easiest defense to attack with downfield passing, an element of Atlanta's offense that has been lacking. |
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| Maybe we see the rookie test out the deep ball in Week 16. I'm definitely intrigued by the top to his range of outcomes and think that it's possible Penix Jr. will elevate both Darnell Mooney and Drake London. I currently have Penix Jr. ranked as the QB19 for Week 16, ahead of Patrick Mahomes, C.J. Stroud, and Russell Wilson. If you were considering starting any of those quarterbacks with Saturday games, I do prefer the rookie. |
| Elite flex options -- Spears and Ford at RB, and Penix Jr. in Superflex |
| Below are my Half-PPR flex rankings: |
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| I view the top-40 as pretty much locked-in. Assuming every league has at least 5-6 starting spots between the RB, WR, TE, and FLEX positions, any 10-12 team league is going cover roughly the top-50 players. You might have a team that's just so good that you have to decide between one of the above players for a flex spot. I'll go ahead and brag, I do. |
| Most often, the above players aren't involved in start/sit decisions; they're locked in. From this point on, I'm not assuming that any player is a set-it-and-forget-it starter for you. |
| If you notice a player's name underlined: |
Green underline = Median projection feels "secure," and there's week-winning upside
Yellow underline = Median projection feels "secure," it would take a true outlier performance for week-winning upside
Orange underline = Shaky median projection... but there is week-winning upside available
Red underline = We are swinging for the fences, I feel no security in the projection |
| Feel free to push a red player who I have ranked 30th above a green player who I have ranked 20th if you feel desperate and it feels like the right move. Feel free to push a green player ranked 30th above an orange player ranked 20th if you want to prioritize safety above all else. Maybe you're projected to win by 40 points this week. Ultimately, I hope that these color designations help you better organize your mind on how to approach your lineup setting decisions. I can provide a rankings set, but of course, decisions are rarely so binary as choosing one player over another because my rankings have one above the other. |
| I hope that you feel empowered to trust your own discernment, and I hope to see you back in this space next week to collect some trophies! |
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| I'm adding another designation for Najee Harris and others like Najee Harris. |
| Brown underline = I don't feel confident in the median projection, and that's really all that we have. I'm not sure there is upside. We're just counting on a bunch of touches amounting to something. Somehow, please, get us to 10 points. |
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| We didn't start Xavier Worthy last week in the league where my brother wanted to. We didn't go with Christian Watson, either. We went with Jaylen Warren in a classic case of over-managing. We felt like he offered us the "safest" floor projection, and we had a huge projected advantage heading into the afternoon games. Things went downhill from there, and we barely eeked out a win with Warren's 2.5 PPR points sitting in our flex. |
| This week, we're going with Worthy. We'll see how that turns out for us! Maybe Hollywood Brown will spark something new into a Chiefs offense that has looked lifeless at times in 2024. |
| We'll see! The only thing that I feel confident in is that we don't know anything. We don't know who will get hurt this week, who will be the ones to find the end zone, which quarterbacks will be pressured too much to connect on the oh-so-important deep ball that could swing Fantasy matchups -- only the Fantasy gods know. But we will know soon! There's no sense in stressing any decision that you have to make this weekend. Most likely, stressing about the decision will only increase the chances of making the wrong decision. |
| Go with whatever has best guided you to this point -- trust your gut, your heart, your mind, my rankings, whatever works. Good luck, godspeed, I hope to see you on the other side! |
| Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Adam, Dan, and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! |
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| | | | | CBS Sports Classic | | NFL | The CBS Sports Classic tips off this Saturday with a matchup between North Carolina and UCLA at 3 PM ET followed by Kentucky and Ohio State at 5:30 PM ET. Watch live on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
Watch Live
| | Trips to the NFL Playoffs are on the line in Week 16. Watch it unfold live with a CBS Sports Doubleheader this Sunday starting at 1 PM ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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