| | | | Monday, September 9, 2024 | | We've got exactly three weeks to go in the MLB season, and even less than that for those of you in H2H leagues, which means that when you're deciding who to add or drop, there's almost nothing that matters more than the next week's matchups. In today's newsletter, we've got the top waiver-wire targets, plus hitter and pitcher matchups for Week 25, with Scott White's top sleeper starters and two-start pitcher rankings, plus the latest news and performances from this weekend to make sure you're up to date before this week's key lineup locks. | | Let's get to it: | | Week 25 Preview | | | | Week 25 waiver targets | | The key thing to know for Week 25 is that the Diamondbacks and Padres both only play five games. In a Roto league, I'm probably keeping all of the key names in my lineup, but it's a much tougher call in H2H points, where volume reigns supreme. There are some huge names across these two lineups, and I would say if you have any viable alternatives playing seven games, you should consider that; in one H2H points league, I'm starting Xavier Edwards ahead of Jackson Merrill , for example. | C: Joey Bart, Pirates (26%)
1B: Kyle Manzardo, Guardians (25%)
2B: Spencer Horwitz, Blue Jays (27%)
3B: Connor Norby, Marlins (53%)
SS: Trevor Story, Red Sox (21%)
OF: Dylan Crews, Nationals (72%), Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs (63%), Jordan Walker, Cardinals (35%)
SP: Mackenzie Gore, Nationals (69%), Reid Detmers, Angels (26%), Landon Knack, Dodgers (11%) | | For more deep-league targets, plus my thoughts on each of those players and more, head here. | | | | Week 25 sleeper hitters | | Best hitter matchups for Week 25: | 1. Cubs @LAD3, @COL3
2. Twins LAA3, CIN3
3. Astros OAK3, @LAA3
4. Rockies @DET3, CHC3
5. Marlins @PIT3, @WAS4 | | Worst hitter matchups for Week 25: | 1. Padres @SEA2, @SF3
2. Rangers @ARI2, @SEA4
3. Diamondbacks TEX2, MIL3
4. Mets @TOR3, @PHI3
5. Giants MIL3, SD3 @MIN3, @PHI4 | | Top sleeper hitters for Week 25: | 1. Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Cubs (61%) @LAD3, @COL3
2. Xavier Edwards, SS, Marlins (79%) @PIT3, @WAS4
3. Connor Norby, 3B, Marlins (55%) @PIT3, @WAS4
4. Michael Toglia, 1B, Rockies (49%) @DET3, CHC3
5. Spencer Horwitz, 2B, Blue Jays (27%) NYM3, STL3 | | Week 25 sleeper pitchers | | You can check out Scott's two-start pitcher rankings here, too. He ranks every projected two-start pitcher for the upcoming week, tiering them from must-starts to "no-thanks." | | Top sleeper pitches for Week 25: | 1. Mackenzie Gore, Nationals (63%) vs. ATL, vs. MIA
2. JP Sears, Athletics (62%) at HOU, at CHW
3. Spencer Arrighetti, Astros (81%) vs. OAK
4. Ben Lively, Guardians (73%) at CHW, vs. TB
5. David Festa, Twins (43%) vs. LAA, vs. CIN | | | | Weekend Standouts | | Good pitching | | Logan Gilbert, Mariners @STL: 8 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 10 K – I am agnostic about the question of whether you should get rid of wins for your Roto leagues – just play whatever you think is most fun! – but if you want to convince your leaguemates, just show them Logan Gilbert's season. He's third in the majors in innings pitched and 10th in ERA, and has just seven wins in 29 starts to show for it after this loss in a complete game. Gilbert has taken the loss in six different quality starts this season, and he has a 2.69 ERA in 11 no-decisions, too. Gilbert has absolutely been one of the best pitchers in the league this season, and his teammates are holding him back from truly living up to that in Fantasy. | | Corbin Burnes, Orioles vs. TB: 6 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K – For those of you who live somewhere it gets cold in the winter: You know, when you slip on a patch of ice you didn't see, so you have to walk the rest of the way like a penguin because you're worried about slipping again? That's how I feel about starting Corbin Burnes right now. I'm going to keep going down this path, but I'm not going to feel comfortable with it until that first thaw. Burnes' impending free agency will be one of the most interesting storylines of the offseason, and the lack of strikeouts lately – 13 in his past three starts – does not make me feel great about whichever teams end up bidding on him. | | Framber Valdez , Astros vs. ARI: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 7 K – On July 10, Valdez threw his curveball a then-season-high 38% of the time, and he put up 10 strikeouts over seven excellent innings. He's made 10 starts since then, with a 1.77 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and 81 strikeouts in 66 innings of work. It's the best stretch of Valdez's career, and it's made me rethink how I view Valdez; is he really just the, "high-floor, low-ceiling" guy we've pegged him as over the past few seasons? If he keeps this up over the final few starts of the season, I very well may have to rank him as a top-12 SP next season. | | | | Michael King , Padres vs. SF: 6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – It was good to see King get back on track here after a few subpar starts where he didn't have his control. The one walk was King's fewest since Aug. 13, as he had 10 in his previous 15.1 innings of work. He leaned on his changeup to dominant in this one, and that's usually not a bad idea for King, as it's been his best pitch this season. Even with the recent slide, King has a 2.54 ERA with 145 strikeouts in 120 innings since the start of May, and this was a sign that he isn't running out of steam at the end of his longest season as a starter since 2018. | | Luis Gil, Yankees @CHC: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K – I'll admit, I wasn't sure of what to expect from Gil coming off that back injury. And if you had told me ahead of time his fastball velocity would be down 1.7 mph in this one, I probably would've just told you to steer clear. Shows what I know. I still think the Yankees best option might be to move Gil to the bullpen for the playoffs, given how many more innings he's thrown this season than ever before – 130.2 now, with a previous career high of 108.2 in 2021 – but as long as he's starting, I think you probably have to keep rolling with him after this one. | | Max Fried, Braves vs. TOR: 7 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – When Fried returned from his forearm injury in early August, he did so with 12 earned runs and 11 walks allowed in his first 13.2 innings over three starts, a pretty scary sign. Or not. In four starts since, he has allowed just six runs and six walks over 26 innings of work, more or less looking like the guy we always expect him to be. I see no reason to be concerned at this point. | | Gerrit Cole , Yankees @CHC: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – He still isn't quite himself, mostly because he still doesn't have that slider – he only threw 10 of them, generating zero whiffs and two batted balls with an average exit velocity of 96.6 mph. I don't think Cole can be himself without the slider, but he is showing he can still be a very effective pitcher, posting a 1.58 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 47 strikeouts over 40 innings in his past seven starts. I'm starting him against the Red Sox this week, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't at least a little bit concerned about it – they've put up 12 runs in 14 innings in three starts against Cole dating back to the start of last season. | | Jared Jones , Pirates vs. WAS: 7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 9 K – Jones hasn't been quite the same guy since his hot start, and he finally leaned into that in this one by completely changing up his pitch mix. Jones leaned on his curveball 32% of the time when his previous season-high was just 11.5% usage with that pitch. And it worked, as he generated seven whiffs and a 39% CSW rate with it, elite marks for a secondary. He's mostly led with his fastball this season, but he threw the slider more than in the previous outing, and then threw it just 40% of the time Sunday. It's hard to thrive against major-leaguers with just a two-pitch mix, so if the curveball can be more of a consistent weapon, that could help Jones rediscover the ace form he flashed early on this season. This suddenly might be one of the key names to watch the rest of the way. | | Nick Pivetta, Red Sox vs. CHW: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 6 K – That's only two great starts in a row from Pivetta if you go by the game log, but remember, he technically pitched in relief in a game from June that was made up a few weeks ago and dominated; unofficially, he now has 22 strikeouts to four walks over 18 innings in his past three appearances. Pivetta's career has been defined by inconsistency, so I can't exactly say I'm confident Pivetta will continue to dominate down the stretch. But I'm probably starting him in his next two starts, against the Orioles and Rays. | | Tobias Myers, Brewers vs. COL: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 11 K – I think we can mostly chalk this one up to, "It's the Rockies away from Coors Field," especially since this was Myers' first quality start in almost a month. I know he's produced pretty well this season, with a 2.93 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, but it's never really felt real to me; Myers' 4.11 FIP and 4.20 xERA suggest there's been a lot of luck involved here. I haven't been a believer all along, and I'm not about to start with a matchup against the Diamondbacks on the schedule this week. | | Yariel Rodriguez , Blue Jays @ATL: 5 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – Given that Rodriguez has just two starts (back in July!) of more than 5.2 innings this season is a good reason why you shouldn't have much interest in him. But I'm pretty sure he's going to be on my Sleepers list next season, because I think we've seen some really interesting flashes from him this season; he's flashed real bat-missing abilities and has held the quality of contact he allows in check well. Workload limitations have kept him from really breaking out here, but I think there's real talent, and he's a name worth keeping on your radar for the late rounds next season. | | Jack Leiter, Rangers vs. LAA: 5 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – Ditto with Leiter, whose stuff, I think, speaks for itself. He led all pitchers over the weekend with 20 whiffs, with 12 of them coming off his very, very good fastball. Consistency is obviously an issue, especially when it comes to command, and it's not entirely clear if he's done enough this season to force his way into the Rangers rotation for 2025. But if he does, I'll be very interested in taking some late-round fliers on him, just in case. | | Samuel Aldegheri, Angels @TEX: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 7 K – This was a nice outing from the recently promoted prospect, and his fastball was especially impressive, generating 10 whiffs on the day. Aldegheri put up some pretty bonkers strikeout numbers in the minors, and while this wasn't enough to make him much more than an AL-only option to consider, let's keep an eye on his next few starts to see if the Angels might have something here. | | Richard Fitts, Red Sox vs. CHW: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K – The White Sox are a nice, soft landing spot, especially if you're going to go with a "just put it in play and hope they don't do any damage" approach. The White Sox are happy to oblique. Will other teams be as hospitable? Fitts is a pretty fringe prospect, with merely decent minor-league numbers to his name, so I don't see a ton to get excited about based on this one, at least outside of, again, AL-only leagues. | | Bad Pitching | | Spencer Schwellenbach , Braves vs. TOR: 5 IP, 10 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 3 K – The concern here is that Schwellenbach is just running out of steam at this point. It hasn't necessarily shown up in his velocity, but Schwellenbach now has just five strikeouts over his past two outings combined, while finishing six innings only once in five tries. Schwellenbach has thrown nearly 80 more innings already than he did last season, and with the slippage in his performance starting to show up, I think he's probably not worth starting this week against the Dodgers. But I am very excited to draft Schwellenbach next season, and I'll take any discount I can get from a potential late-season slide. | | Joe Musgrove , Padres vs. SF: 4.1 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – Musgrove was rolling through the first three innings of this one, but the Giants jumped on him for all six runs in the fourth inning. It's not exactly clear why things went as wrong for Musgrove as they did, as his velocity was actually up throughout the start, including on his final few pitches. One interesting note is that, while his four-seamer velocity was up 0.9 mph, his cutter was actually down 1.3 mph and had five more inches of vertical break than usual, which seems to indicate he just might not have had the feel for his pitches the way he typically does. I'm not too worried about this moving forward, especially since Musgrove has been excellent since coming back from his elbow injury prior to this one. I'm probably just starting him moving forward. | | Justin Verlander , Astros vs. ARI: 3 IP, 8 H, 8 ER, 1 BB, 0 K – Verlander is five years away from Cooperstown whenever he decides to hang them up, and it's never felt closer than it does right now. Verlander isn't going to get anywhere close to the 140 innings he needs for his 2025 option to vest, and given that, it feels like there's a legitimate chance he decides to call it quits after this very difficult season. He lost the ability to generate whiffs at a high level a few years back but was able to survive in spite of it by limiting walks and hard contact, but both have gone in the wrong direction amid injuries this season. I think you probably won't regret dropping Verlander if you do. | | Gavin Williams, Guardians @LAD: 0.2 IP, 2 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 0 K – I also think it's unlikely you'll regret dropping Williams, who still has some long-term potential but just hasn't looked right since coming back from an elbow injury. His fastball remains a very good pitch, but the rest of the arsenal has been lackluster all season long. Hopefully, a full, healthy offseason can help Williams rediscover the feel for his slider especially, but with no signs of that happening right now, I just don't see any way you could trust Williams. | | Aroldis Chapman, Pirates vs. WAS: 0.2 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 2 K – The Pirates have been reluctant to give Chapman the closer role despite David Bednar 's struggles, and I think maybe we saw why here. Chapman has mostly been really good lately, including with 22 strikeouts to just two walks in 12 innings in August, but his career in recent years has been defined by volatility, and that caught up to him in a big way in this one. I would guess Chapman is still more likely than Bednar to get the next save – Bednar walked three Saturday, as his own struggles continue – but I don't feel as confident as I would like overall. | | News and notes | | Kyle Tucker made his long-awaited return to the Astros this weekend. He started two games, going 1-4 with two runs and a RBI. I'm getting him back in my lineups wherever I have him. | | Ketel Marte also returned on Friday, and was back at leadoff. He's worth starting everywhere in the midst of arguably his best season prior to the injury. | | Tyler Glasnow threw a 25-pitch bullpen on Saturday, the first time he's thrown off a mound since landing on the IL. The hope is still that he'll be able to return this season, but it's going to be a close call, so if you needed to drop Glasnow, it's not the worst idea. | | Jackson Merrill fouled a ball off his knee Friday, was out of the lineup Saturday but then returned on Sunday. X-rays came back negative, and he homered Sunday, so he's fine – though with just the five games on the schedule this week, he's not a must-start player in H2H points leagues, at least. | | Teoscar Hernandez was hit in the foot by a pitch Friday and left the game immediately. He also missed Saturday and Sunday. X-rays came back negative and he's hoping to return Monday. | | Luis Castillo left Sunday's start with a left hamstring strain and will undergo an MRI on Monday. I wouldn't be surprised if this was the end of Castillo's season, given how tricky hamstrings tend to be. | | Alec Bohm was placed on the IL with a left hand strain, retroactive to September 3. In shallow leagues, check for Eugenio Suarez, Mark Vientos, or Junior Caminero; if none are available, consider Connor Norby. In deeper leagues, look for Brooks Lee or Jose Tena. | | Bo Bichette will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A on Tuesday. He's been out since mid-July with a right calf strain, and for the most part, I'm just hoping to see some signs of life from Bichette in what has otherwise been a lost season. | | Gavin Stone was placed on the IL due to right shoulder inflammation. He seems fairly easy to drop, and his absence should give Landon Knack some runway for the rest of the season. | | Jeffrey Springs was placed on the IL with left elbow fatigue, retroactive to September 5. He hasn't been ruled out yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if this ended Springs' season – in a best-case scenario, he might be back for one last turn through the rotation, so he's a pretty easy drop. | | Brandon Lowe missed Friday and Saturday due to right middle finger inflammation. He's a risky start, given the Rays' willingness to bench even healthy hitters. | | Jonathan India was removed from Sunday's game due to left elbow discomfort. | | Calvin Faucher was placed on the IL with a right shoulder impingement, retroactive to September 5. I'm not sure it matters who gets the saves for Miami the rest of the way, given the lack of talent in their bullpen, but I guess I would bet on Anthony Bender if you forced me to pick one name. | | JT Realmuto left Friday's game after fouling a ball off his knee and was not in the lineup Saturday or Sunday. That's a concern given Realmuto's earlier knee surgery. | | Trevor Story made his return this weekend, started both Saturday and Sunday, and picked up a hit in each. He's still been a productive power/speed combo when healthy in recent years, so I don't mind giving him a look in category-based leagues. | | Tanner Houck's next start was pushed back to Friday, which means he won't be a two-start pitcher this week, as we originally anticipated. | | Jordan Romano has been ruled out for the rest of the season. Chad Green will remain the Blue Jays' closer. | | Jeff McNeil is out for the season with a fractured right wrist. Jose Iglesias started at second base in his absence. | | Jose Soriano will not return this season. He went on the IL August 17 with arm fatigue. | | To the IL this weekend | | Kyle Harrison with left shoulder inflammation | | Max Meyer with right shoulder bursitis | | Derek Hill with a left shoulder impingement | | Jo Adell with a left oblique strain | | Kevin Pillar with a sprained left thumb | | Henry Davis with left hand inflammation | | | | | | | | Golazo Network | | 24/7 Sports News | Watch LIVE global soccer coverage on the CBS Sports Golazo Network, available FOR FREE on the CBS Sports App, Pluto TV and streaming on Paramount+.
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