| | | | Monday, April 7, 2025 | | The first few weeks of the season are always defined by injuries, and we got a painful reminder of that this weekend. So, before we get to everything else you need to know about from this weekend's action, here are the injury updates you need to know about: | | Ketel Marte (hamstring) went on the IL – Marte mostly stayed healthy last season, but I was surprised at how little concern there was about his health history in drafts this spring. He has missed a lot of time with soft-tissue injuries in recent years, so you can't say this one was exactly surprising. Let's hope it's a minimum stay, though, with hamstrings, it's usually preferable to err on the side of caution. Blake Snell (shoulder) went on the 15-day IL – Snell started a bullpen session Sunday and then told the team's training staff his shoulder was bothering him. He's been diagnosed with inflammation and is expected to miss at least two starts, though the bigger question is whether there is any kind of underlying structural issue – surely, there will be tests in the coming days to figure that out. Maybe this helps explain why Snell struggled so much in his first two starts of the season. You're obviously holding Snell if you drafted him, but this is also a reminder of why I just couldn't pay the inflated price for him in drafts this spring. Jack Leiter (blister) went to the 15-day IL – I'm definitely stashing Leiter through this injury even if I don't have an IL spot to play with, but I'd be lying if I wasn't a little worried. Not that the blister is going to be a long-running issue physically ; my concern here is that it just gets Leiter off track after a really impressive start. Leiter doesn't have an especially long track record of throwing strikes consistently, and it's possible the couple of new pitches he added this offseason could have played a role in the blister. Let's hope those concerns are just me overthinking it. Nestor Cortes (elbow) went to the 15-day IL – The Brewers seemingly made Cortes a priority in their trade negotiations with the Yankees for Devin Williams , despite the fact that he missed time at the end of last season with a flexor strain in his left elbow. We don't know the details here yet, but it feels pretty ominous, especially given his much-diminished velocity to date. He's droppable. Ivan Herrera (knee) will be placed on the IL – This one is a bummer. Herrera looked like one of the true breakout stars of the first couple weeks of the season, but he had to be helped off the field in the first of Sunday's two games, and now he'll go on the IL with inflammation. Hopefully, it's nothing more serious than that – manager Oliver Marmold told ESPN Herrera had avoided "a bad situation" – but you still don't like to see any kind of injury, especially for a catcher. Pedro Pages is worth a look as a No. 2 catcher, and hopefully, Herrera is just out for a couple of weeks and can continue his breakout when he's right. | | That's the biggest news from this weekend, but there's certainly more to get to a little later on in today's newsletter. First, though, let's get those lineups for Week 3 set: | | | | Week 3 Preview | | | | Before we get to everything you need to know from this weekend's action, let's get those lineups set, with some help from Scott White and me. | | Week 3 waiver targets | | Kris Bubic, Max Meyer, and Jordan Hicks all look like potential difference-makers after two starts. Maybe the two starts after that will go the wrong way and we'll be dropping them en masse, but for now, I'm looking to add all three anywhere I have room for another upside pitcher. Head here to read why, and then here's the rest of the top targets: | | C: Sean Murphy, Braves (34%)1B: Nate Lowe, Nationals (52%)2B: Jorge Polanco, Mariners (31%)3B: Maikel Garcia, Royals (70%)SS: Jacob Wilson, Athletics (49%)OF: Zac Veen, Rockies (24%), Jordan Walker, Cardinals (55%), T.J. Friedl, Reds (58%) SP: Brady Singer, Reds (75%), Eduardo Rodriguez, Diamondbacks (60%) RP: Luke Jackson, Rangers (56%), Anthony Bender, Marlins (9%) | | For more deep-league targets, plus my thoughts on each of those players and more, head here. | | Week 3 sleeper hitters | | Best hitter matchups for Week 3 | 1. Mets MIA3, @ATH3
2. Padres @ATH3, COL3
3. Red Sox TOR4, @CHW3
4. Brewers @COL3, @ARI3
5. Reds @SF3, PIT3 | | | | Worst hitter matchups for Week 3 | 1. Cardinals @PIT3, PHI3
2. Rangers @CHC3, @SEA3
3. Mariners HOU3, TEX3
4. Braves PHI3, @TB3
5. Yankees @DET3, SF3 | | Top sleeper hitters for Week 3 | | Jake Cronenworth, 2B, Padres (58%) @ATH3, COL3 Rhys Hoskins, 1B, Brewers (68%) @COL3, @ARI3Kyle Manzardo, DH, Guardians (69%) CHW3, KC3 Max Kepler, OF, Phillies (25%) @ATL3, @STL3 TJ Friedl, OF, Reds (58%) @SF3, PIT3 | | Week 3 sleeper pitchers | | You can check out Scott's two-start pitcher rankings here, too. He ranks every projected two-start pitcher for the upcoming week, tiering them from must-starts to no-thanks. | | Top sleeper pitches for Week 3 | | Kris Bubic, Royals (RP-eligible) (72%) at CLE Drew Rasmussen (RP-eligible) (71%) vs. ATLCasey Mize (61%) vs. NYY, at MINBrady Singer (68%) vs. PIT Jose Soriano (61%) at TB | | | | Weekend Standouts | | Good pitchers | | Spencer Schwellenbach, Braves vs. MIA: 8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 10 K – Now that's what the hype was all about. Schwellenbach filled up the zone with his six-pitch mix and the Marlins couldn't do anything with it. He generated a whiff on 31% of pitches in the strike zone, which is a bonkers number – only Josh Hader had a higher mark among all pitchers last season. Three hits allowed in 14 innings to open the season is pretty good from Schwellenbach, especially with just one walk. He still has a top-10 ceiling. | | Bailey Ober, Twins vs. HOU: 4 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – Ober commanded his fastball better this time around and his velocity was up a bit from his first start, and as Nick Pollack pointed out at PitcherList.com, a lineup full of right-handed hitters may have limited the efficacy of his best pitch, his changeup. It wasn't an ideal outing, and you definitely want to see him go deeper moving forward. But after the disaster of his first outing, this was a good sign. | | Jesus Luzardo, Phillies vs. LAD: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K – Against the Dodgers ? Yeah, we might need to get really aggressive about moving Luzardo up in the rankings soon. He was a top-36 SP last season and then struggled with forearm and back injuries and got crushed thanks to diminished velocity. His velocity is all the way back and he's added a sweeper, to round out his arsenal, and he's up to 19 strikeouts to four walks in 12 innings to open the season. There's a lot of risk here, both for injury and diminished performance, but he looks about as good as we've ever seen him, and this performance was especially impressive. He might just be a must-start pitcher moving forward. | | Robbie Ray, Mariners vs. SEA: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 5 BB, 2 K – I mean, good is a relative term, right? A 1.50 WHIP and only two K's is pretty bad, but hey, it's a quality start! Ray had trouble generating swings and misses on the slider and curveball, and his changeup isn't a reliable weapon for him yet. He didn't have it in this one and hasn't been terribly impressive through his first two starts, striking out just six in 11.1 innings of work. But I have very little concern here moving forward, personally. | | Matthew Boyd, Cubs vs. SD: 6 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – This was a good start from Boyd, but here's the problem with adding him as a streamer: He gets the Dodgers this week. Boyd can be useful against the right matchups, but it just doesn't make sense to bet against him with the Dodgers on the way. If he does well on my bench, I'll live with it. | | Andrew Heaney, Pirates vs. NYY: 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 K – Yeah, but think about how many strikeouts he would have gotten if the Yankees weren't using the Torpedo bats. This was Heaney's 21st career 10-strikeout game, and I don't think he ever became an ace after any of the previous 20. He's a decent pitcher with this kind of start-to-start upside, but he's nothing more than a streamer. | | Tomoyuki Sugano, Orioles @KC: 5.1 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – This was more like what we were hoping to see from Sugano, who looked like a perfectly viable streamer against a tough matchup. He has a wide arsenal, and I think he should do pretty well the first time he sees most teams, especially in good matchups. But I don't think Sugano is likely to be much more than a Chris Bassitt-level streamer. | | Bad pitching performances | | Jacob deGrom , Rangers vs. TB: 5.2 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 3 K – deGrom's slider generated just two whiffs in this one, and that simply isn't going to work. Especially when the two homers he gave up came on the fastball, which he's trying to throw with intentionally lower velocity this season. If it helps him stay healthy, that'll be a good tradeoff, but it is kind of weird that nobody responded to that news by asking, "Okay, but what if it makes him less dominant." The sample size is too small to draw many conclusions from, but deGrom's whiff rates on his four-seamer and slider are both down significantly from his peak, and it's at least worth asking if he can still be the world-conquering ace we expect him to be. | | Corbin Burnes , Diamondbacks @WAS: 5 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 3 K – I was hoping for a Burnes bounceback, but that's not what we're getting in the early going. His cutter shape still looks more like 2023 than the 2024 version, which hopefully should lead to better results moving forward. The problem is the rest of the arsenal hasn't been there for him yet – he threw his cutter and curveball a combined 84% of the time in this one, compared to 66% usage in 2023. The lack of sliders is especially worrisome since that was his best swing-and-miss pitch last season. I still trust Burnes to figure it out, but I'm not as confident as I want to be about that after two starts. | | Tyler Glasnow, Dodgers @PHI: 2 IP, 2 H, 5 ER, 5 BB, 2 K – Glasnow's velocity was way down and he was struggling to get anything over the plate for strikes, which I'm hoping was just the result of pitching through rain. He looked frustrated with the condition of the mound and clearly wasn't happy, so I'm willing to get him the benefit of the doubt on this one. | | Tanner Bibee, Guardians @LAA: 4 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – Bibee somehow managed to have the most swinging strikes and the most earned runs allowed of any pitcher on Saturday. Tough to do. Bibee hasn't looked great so far, which is a bad sign if you were hoping for him to take a big step forward in his third season. But I don't see much reason to panic here, either – his stuff looks the same as last season, so this is probably just something he needs to work through. | | Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays @NYM: 5.1 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 0 K – You know the popular .gif of the woman trying a kombucha, reacting with disgust, then reconsidering it, then saying, "Nope." That's been my journey Gausman since the start of the spring. I was out on him, then opened my heart to the possibility of a bounceback when he came out throwing harder this spring. But his splitter wasn't getting the same kind of bite we're used to, and that's remained an issue, with a paltry 11.1% whiff rate with that pitch so far. It's only two starts, but I think the best-case scenario here is something like last year, where Gausman had to fight tooth and nail to have a mildly useful ERA. I don't expect much more than that from him. | | Justin Verlander, Giants vs. SEA: 2.1 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K – I was also open to the possibility of a Verlander bounceback, but it seems like all the tinkering in the world can't stop this slide. He's 42, so the fact that Verlander is even able to compete at the MLB level right now is an accomplishment. But you don't get points for degree of difficulty, and Verlander's new curveball and sweeper just aren't getting the job done. He's probably just a streamer at this stage in his career, and I don't think I can trust him in Philadelphia for his next start. | | Gavin Williams , Guardians @LAA: 3 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5 K – Spring Training feels like a long time ago, huh? To be clear, I still think Williams is better than his performance so far, but it's been a rough go so far. The whiff rate on his new sweeper is extremely strong, but his fastball hasn't been very effective despite being up all the way to 97.3 mph through his first two starts. I think things will get better moving forward, and I would prefer not to drop Williams because there's plenty of upside here. But I think he's overly simplified his approach – only four-seamers, sweepers, and curves so far, with nary a changeup or cutter to be seen – and will need to tinker to find the right answer. | | Spencer Arrighetti, Astros @MIN: 3.2 IP, 3 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 3 K – Arrighetti couldn't really throw anything but his four-seamer and cutter for strikes in this one, which made life tough. I had hoped we were past starts like this when he turned things around mid-way through last season, but I guess not. I still think there's plenty of upside here, but when his command goes, Arrighetti could still struggle. Let's just hope these kinds of starts are the minority outcome moving forward. | | Jackson Jobe, Tigers vs. CWS: 5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 4 K – The stuff still looks terrific, and the results still look pretty bad. Just six whiffs on 86 pitches in this one suggests that, for whatever the stuff looks like from our perspective, hitters aren't fooled. Yet. I still think it makes sense to bet on a pitcher with a high-90s fastball and several breaking balls that move like crazy, but I also think that's a long-term view. In the short term, we need to see some tangible results to make Jobe worth trusting in your lineup. | | Taj Bradley, Rays @TEX: 5 IP, 2 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 7 K – The Duality of Taj. In his first outing, he was incredible, striking out seven over six innings with zero walks. This time around, the strikeouts were still there, but he also walked four and allowed two homers. Catch him on the right day and Bradley looks like an ace, and the stuff is clearly there. But the execution remains incredibly inconsistent, and it makes it nearly impossible to know when you can trust him. You're still probably just playing matchups with him moving forward. | | Walker Buehler, Red Sox vs. STL: 5 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – I've created a new concept for my pitcher rankings. You know the Mendoza Line ? Well, I'm introducing "The Buehler Line." Every pitcher with any kind of interesting skills gets ranked ahead of Buehler. If someone is behind Buehler, I think they are a streaming option at best. That doesn't mean I think Buehler is totally finished as a useful Fantasy, but it does mean I'm open to dropping him for just about anyone with a whiff of upside. I just don't think he has much. | | Jordan Romano, RP, Phillies – Unfortunately, I don't think the Phillies can let Romano anywhere near a high-leverage spot right now. Not with the Arms they have. His average fastball velocity was down to 93.5 mph Sunday, three full ticks down from last year. He has allowed runs in three of his first five appearances, with four walks to six strikeouts in four innings of work. Maybe he can rediscover his former self, but I think he's gotta be behind Orion Kerkering, Matt Strahm, and Jose Alvarado in the pecking order here. At least. | | Notable hitting performances | | Corbin Carroll, OF, Diamondbacks – Carroll homered twice Friday and is doing a good job of avoiding the slow start that plagued him last year. And there's at least a chance we're already seeing the best version of Carroll yet, as his max exit velocity this season is 115.7 mph, nearly 2 mph harder than any batted ball before this season. He's crushing it right now. And no, I'm not worried about the lack of steals yet. Hard to steal when seven of your first 11 hits go for extra bases, you know? | | Jackson Chourio, OF, Brewers – Remember those five strikeouts on Opening Day? Well, Chourio is already up to a .295 average and .591 slugging percentage after his two-homer game Sunday. And he's struck out just five times in six games in April. We told you not to worry. | | Rafael Devers, 3B, Red Sox – I'll admit, I was more than a little worried about Devers this spring. I dropped him to the end of the third-round range in my overall rankings and to the bottom of his tier at third base. And now I'm worried it was an overreaction. He hit his first homer of the season Saturday and followed it up with a 3-for-3 showing on Sunday, bringing his April line to .500/.609/.778 with just two strikeouts in five games. That buy-low window may have just shut close. | | Anthony Volpe , SS, Yankees – Volpe is really putting my skepticism to the test here. We've seen hot starts from him before, and he still isn't hitting the ball especially hard or making as much contact as he probably needs to. But he does have six barrels already, which isn't nothing – he had just 19 of these ideally struck balls all of last season. I still think it's nothing more than a hot streak, but Volpe is young enough that I don't want to write the possibility off entirely. I still think he's probably a sell-high candidate, but there's a chance there's something real happening here. And he's one player I could see the Torpedo bats actually making an outsized impact for, given how marginal his skills as a hitter have been to this point in his MLB career. I've got some more thoughts on that here. | | Jackson Holliday, 2B, Orioles – It's still too early to draw any firm conclusions, but Holliday's second season is going a lot better than his first. He went 3 for 4 Sunday to bring his season line to .333/.355/.533, and he's done it while cutting down on the strikeouts lately, with just one in his past four games and a manageable 25.8% rate overall. He's not a finished product, but at 21, he's keeping his head above water in a way he never really did as a rookie. | | Kerry Carpenter , OF, Tigers – It might not be showing up in his production yet, but Carpenter is absolutely crushing the ball. He has a 96.4 mph average exit velocity, which is a totally bonkers mark. In the early going this season, he is one of the biggest underperformers relative to his underlying data, sporting a .350 wOBA compared to a .445 xwOBA. And he's started every game since coming off the bench on Opening Day! There's just one problem there, of course: The Tigers haven't faced a left-handed starter since Opening Day. As good as Carpenter is, he's probably still just a platoon bat. | | News and notes | | Ronald Acuña will meet with doctors in LA in the coming days. He hopes to be cleared for a running program and still has an eye on a May return. | | Matt McLain was a late scratch Friday with a hamstring injury. Then he missed Saturday and Sunday, too, so there's some risk of starting him this week. I'd probably avoid it if I had a reasonable alternative. | | Shohei Ohtani threw a 26-pitch bullpen Saturday. He mixed in a few splitters for the first time since resuming his throwing program. He remains a long way away from returning to MLB action, with a June return being the earliest I could really see. | | Framber Valdez is dealing with some fatigue and a sore throat, putting his status in question for his scheduled start Tuesday. | | Speaking of catchers, Sean Murphy was reinstated from the IL Sunday, but the Braves game was postponed due to weather. He should be back in Fantasy lineups, especially with Drake Baldwin struggling to produce so far. | | Big weekend for the Rockies: They promoted their top pitching prospect Chase Dollander to make his ML debut Sunday against the A's, and they also plan to promote Zac Veen for his ML debut Tuesday. Neither is a must-add player in all formats, but there's enough upside with both that I'm willing to take a flier on them in most leagues. Especially Veen in a categories league. | | Spencer Strider will make another rehab start at Triple-A on Thursday. He went 5.1 no-hit innings in his last rehab start, throwing 75 pitches. If all goes well, I'd assume his start after Thursday's will be in the majors. | | Gunnar Henderson was activated Friday. He went 1-13 this weekend. No worries here. | | Alexis Diaz began a rehab assignment Friday and is nearing a return, though he may not just return to the closer's role. But he should get a chance at some point. | | Xavier Edwards was scratched Sunday due to a sore right knee. He's day-to-day heading into Monday, and he's a fringe-y enough starter to sit if you have another option. | | Cody Bellinger returned to the lineup Sunday after missing Friday and Saturday with back stiffness. | | Sandy Alcantara won't start Monday as he's set to go on the paternity list. It looks like he'll start next weekend against the Nationals instead. | | Royce Lewis has been doing some hitting and running but has had "no change in his status" in his recovery from a moderate hamstring strain. | | Speaking of pitching prospects, the Angels recalled Caden Dana on Friday. He pitched three innings of relief, then was optioned back to Triple-A on Sunday. Dana was a roster replacement for Ryan Johnson , who went on the paternity list Friday. We should see him again soon, but he isn't worth stashing until he's called up for good and shows us something. | | When the Dodgers put Freddie Freeman on the IL, they recalled a catcher prospect from Triple-A– but not Dalton Rushing, the one we're waiting for. It was Hunter Feduccia. | | Sean Manaea said Friday that his strained right oblique is feeling good after receiving a PRP injection Tuesday. | | Brandon Woodruff will throw a simulated game Monday before reporting to Triple-A to begin a rehab assignment. | | Josh Jung is scheduled to be activated Tuesday against the Cubs. He was on the IL with neck spasms, and I'd let him show he's okay before starting him. | | Jorge Polanco was out of the lineup Sunday due to soreness in his surgically repaired left knee. | | Victor Robles took an awkward leap into the netting in right field and messed up his wrist/arm. Had to be carted off he was in so much pain. | | Others to the IL this weekend: | | Nolan Gorman with a right hamstring strain. | | Michael Soroka with a right bicep strain. | | Colin Holderman due to a right knee sprain. | | | | | | | | National Championship | | Final Four Coverage | Who will have their One Shining Moment TONIGHT and cement themselves in history? Tune in to coverage at 8 ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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