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Sunday, September 22, 2024 |
Welcome to Week 3! And what a week we have on tap! It feels like the NFL front-loaded the schedule with awesome matchups this season, and while we're running into some inevitable snoozers starting in Week 3, there are still some potentially awesome showdowns in store for us. The game that I'm the most excited for is Minnesota vs. Houston. Demeco Ryans and Bobby Slowik lead the undefeated Texans into a tough road test against Kevin O'Connell, Brian Flores, and the undefeated Vikes. Justin Jefferson vs. Derek Stingley, C.J. Stroud vs. Minnesota's blitz packages and disguised coverages, and a "revenge game" for both Stefon Diggs and Cam Akers. This game has a little bit of everything, and still, it might not be my *favorite* matchup of the week. |
Another matchup between tow undefeated is brewing. |
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Jim Harbaugh vs. Mike Tomlin is a matchup sent straight from the football gods. It's possible that we don't see a single pass attempt in this game. And I am here for it! |
We haven't even hit on what might be the game of the week! Jalen Hurts and the Eagles will look to get back on track after dropping a Monday night matchup against Atlanta against another NFC South opponent as they take flight to take on the 2-0 New Orleans Saints. No team has caught the eye of NFL fans more than the Saints and their high-scoring Kliff Kubiak-engineered offense. Does regression hit for Derek Carr in Week 3, or is this Saints team for real? |
Of course, to longtime FFT newsletter reader, the Saints offense is old news. The truly sick among us have our eyes set on more important things, such as a potential Week 3 breakout for our preseason darlings. |
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Let's talk about Jacob Cowing and expectations for the 49ers for a moment. Brock Purdy only has 13 career pass attempts (playoffs or regular season) with both Deebo Samuel and George Kittle off the field. When one has missed, the other has usually been healthy. Kittle, in particular, has not missed much time at all during the Purdy era. This is uncharted territory for Purdy. Who might step up? |
Key third down receptions by Jauan Jennings is a staple of San Francisco football during the 2020's, but we have never seen him produce significant yardage at the NFL level. |
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Here are his best career statistical performances. He's only topped 70 receiving yards once and has never finished with 100+ receiving yards in a game. Rookie Jacob Cowing has the ability to put up 70+ yards on one catch. He was wildly productive at the collegiate level and could torch a Rams defense that has had a clear issue with speedy receivers in 2024. |
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The above excerpt is from an August newsletter publication titled "Unheralded rookies to know." After hitting on Puka Nacua, Tank Dell, and Jayden Reed in that space the year prior, I went even deeper into the obscurity of the 2024 class. Several of the players who were featured in that space are already getting early-season opportunities. |
Here's the full list: |
Luke McCaffrey Carson Steele Sione Vaki Jacob Cowing Jordan Whittington Erick All Kimani Vidal Dylan Laube Malik Washington Jaheim Bell |
Not even one month into the season, we already see several of those players elevated to potential starters. Let that serve as a simple reminder that no man is safe. Injuries can strike at any time in the NFL. Nothing is guaranteed. This is a long season. Last week's headliner photo was Isiah Pacheco. Just seven short days later, and we are hearing that Pacheco may miss the entire remainder of the 2024 season. Absolutely brutal stuff. But we keep pressing onward. |
Welcome back to Sunday! Welcome back to chaos. |
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The DFS Helper should help point you in the right direction, but feel free to reach out to me on Twitter if you have any further questions! I try to respond to tweets throughout the week; I also have a weekly Twitter Q&A each Sunday morning to answer any lineup setting questions you have. Good luck this weekend everybody! |
DraftKings Main Slate Tiers |
Quarterback |
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Considerations Kyler Murray ($6,900) |
Tier 2 -- Preferred Tournament Options Geno Smith ($5,600), Jalen Hurts ($7,300), Andy Dalton ($4,800), Jared Goff ($6,500 - this is an awesome spot to stack the Lions if the rostered rates end up being low as expected), Derek Carr ($5,800), C.J. Stroud ($7,100 - I'll only be playing him in a mega-stack involving both Nico Collins and Tank Dell) |
Running Back |
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Locks None |
Tier 2 -- Cash Game Consideration De'Von Achane ($7,000), Jordan Mason ($6,200), Zach Charbonnet ($6,000), Cam Akers ($4,700) |
Tier 3 -- Preferred Tournament Options Derrick Henry ($6,500), Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,800), De'Von Achane ($7,000), Jordan Mason ($6,200), James Conner ($6,600), Zach Charbonnet ($6,000), Rachaad White ($6,100), Zamir White ($5,500) |
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Wide Receiver |
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Locks None |
Tier 2 -- Cash Game Consideration Chris Godwin ($6,500), Brandon Aiyuk ($6,200), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($5,400), Nico Collins ($7,300), Chris Olave ($6,300), DK Metcalf ($6,300), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,200) |
Tier 3 -- Preferred Tournament Options Chris Olave ($6,300), Brandon Aiyuk ($6,200), Tank Dell ($5,200), Justin Jefferson ($8,600), Jameson Williams ($5,800), Nico Collins ($7,300), Davante Adams ($7,600), Rashid Shaheed ($5,300), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($5,400), D.J. Moore ($6,700), CeeDee Lamb ($8,800), DK Metcalf ($6,300), Jacob Cowing ($3,000), Diontae Johnson ($4,900), DeVonta Smith ($6,900), Jordan Whittington ($4,200), Courtland Sutton ($5,400) |
Tight End |
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Consideration George Kittle ($5,700) (Q) |
Trey McBride ($6,200), Brock Bowers ($5,400) |
Tier 2 -- Preferred Tournament Options Trey McBride ($6,200), Foster Moreau ($2,600) |
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FanDuel Main Slate Tiers |
Quarterback |
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Considerations Kyler Murray ($8,300), Andy Dalton ($6,000) |
Tier 2 -- Preferred Tournament Options Jalen Hurts ($8,500), Jared Goff ($7,500), Andy Dalton ($6,000), Geno Smith ($7,600) |
Running Back |
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Locks Cam Akers ($4,000) |
Tier 2 -- Cash Game Consideration De'Von Achane ($7,700), Zach Charbonnet ($6,700), Jordan Mason ($8,300), Carson Steele ($5,200) |
Tier 3 -- Preferred Tournament Options Carson Steele ($5,200), Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,900), Derrick Henry ($7,800), De'Von Achane ($7,700), Cam Akers ($4,000), Kyren Williams ($7,500), Jordan Mason ($8,300), James Conner ($7,400), Zach Charbonnet ($6,700), Zamir White ($6,000) |
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Wide Receiver |
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Locks None |
Tier 2 -- Cash Game Consideration Brandon Aiyuk ($6,500), Chris Godwin ($6,600), Nico Collins ($7,600), Rashee Rice ($7,300), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($6,100), Chris Olave ($6,700) |
Tier 3 -- Preferred Tournament Options Chris Olave ($6,700), Davante Adams ($7,800), Justin Jefferson ($9,200), Nico Collins ($7,600), Brandon Aiyuk ($6,500), Tank Dell ($6,200), CeeDee Lamb ($9,300), D.J. Moore ($6,500), Jameson Williams ($6,300), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($9,100), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($6,100), DK Metcalf ($7,200), Jacob Cowing ($4,000), Rashid Shaheed ($6,300), Courtland Sutton ($5,300), Marvin Harrison Jr. ($7,500), Diontae Johnson ($5,300) |
Tight End |
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Consideration Trey McBride ($6,800) |
Tier 2 -- Preferred Tournament Options Trey McBride ($6,800), Noah Fant ($4,900) |
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Optimal FanDuel Lineup |
QB -- Kyler Murray RB -- De'Von Achane RB -- Cam Akers WR -- Chris Godwin WR -- Brandon Aiyuk WR -- Jaxon Smith-Njigba TE -- Trey McBride FLEX -- Amon-Ra St. Brown D/ST -- Browns |
Tournament FanDuel Lineup |
Designed for large-field tournaments |
QB -- Jalen Hurts RB -- Derrick Henry RB -- Kyren Williams WR -- CeeDee Lamb WR -- Chris Olave WR -- Jacob Cowing TE -- Brock Bowers FLEX -- Carson Steele D/ST -- Chiefs |
Week 3 Rankings Update |
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Quarterback |
Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
QB1 - Josh Allen QB2 - Lamar Jackson QB3 - Jalen Hurts QB4 - Kyler Murray |
Tier 2 -- Upside to finish as the top scorer in Fantasy, but there's risk |
QB5 - Jayden Daniels QB9 - Anthony Richardson QB17 - Justin Fields |
Tier 3 -- Betting on touchdowns with pocket passers |
QB6 - Joe Burrow QB7 - Patrick Mahomes QB8 - C.J. Stroud QB10 - Jared Goff QB11 - Baker Mayfield QB12 - Derek Carr QB13 - Brock Purdy QB14 - Dak Prescott QB15 - Geno Smith |
Tier 4 -- Fine to start if needed, I would not want to use these players |
QB16 - Deshaun Watson QB18 - Garnder Minshew QB19 - Caleb Williams QB20 - Sam Darnold QB21 - Trevor Lawrence QB22 - Kirk Cousins QB23 - Aaron Rodgers QB24 - Matthew Stafford QB25 - Daniel Jones QB26 - Malik Willis QB27 - Will Levis QB28 - Andy Dalton QB29 - Justin Herbert QB30 - Bo Nix QB31 - Skylar Thompson QB32 - Jacoby Brissett |
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Running Backs |
Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
RB1 - Bijan Robinson RB2 - Breece Hall RB3 - Jordan Mason RB4 - De'Von Achane RB5 - Alvin Kamara RB6 - Jahmyr Gibbs RB7 - Saquon Barkley RB9 - Zach Charbonnet RB10 - James Conner RB12 - James Cook RB14 - Zack Moss RB16 - David Montgomery RB17 - Cam Akers |
Tier 2 -- Role checks out, but can we trust the offensive environment? |
RB8 - Derrick Henry RB11 - Jonathan Taylor RB13 - Josh Jacobs RB15 - Kyren Williams RB18 - Rachaad White RB19 - Rhamondre Stevenson RB20 - Tony Pollard RB21 - Travis Etienne RB25 - Brian Robinson Jr. (Commanders are massive road dogs) |
Tier 5 -- I have several concerns |
RB24 - J.K. Dobbins (matchup + no real change in role from Week 1 to Week 2 + Chargers only implied for 17.5 points) RB27 - D'Andre Swift (it's been so rough, but Travis Homer sitting may open up even more opportunities and the matchup is good) RB28 - Devin Singletary (Daniel Jones + Browns D) RB29 - Javonte Williams (Bo Nix + slow start) RB30 - Aaron Jones (brutal matchup + splitting carries) RB31 - Chuba Hubbard (Maxx Crosby + slow start) RB34 - Jerome Ford (Dexter Lawrence + splitting carries) |
Tier 6 -- I also like to live dangerously |
RB20 - Zamir White RB23 - Carson Steele RB32 - Jaylen Warren RB33 - Bucky Irving |
Tier 7 -- Desperation plays |
RB26 - Najee Harris (It sure does not feel good to start Najee Harris! Surely, he'll score a TD at some point) RB35 - Austin Ekeler RB36 - Samaje Perine RB37 - Ezekiel Elliott RB38 - Ty Chandler RB39 - Justice Hill RB40 - Tyjae Spears RB41 - Jaleel McLaughlin RB42 - Gus Edwards RB43 - Chase Brown RB44 - Rico Dowdle RB45 - D'Onta Foreman |
Wide Receivers |
Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
WR1 - CeeDee Lamb WR2 - Amon-Ra St. Brown WR3 - Justin Jefferson WR4 - Ja'Marr Chase WR5 - Nico Collins WR7 - Rashee Rice WR8 - Davante Adams WR11 - Chris Godwin WR12 - DeVonta Smith |
Tier 2 -- Slightly more risk, but probably gonna deliver a big score |
WR6 - Brandon Aiyuk WR9 - Garrett Wilson WR10 - Chris Olave WR14 - Marvin Harrison Jr. WR15 - DJ Moore WR16 - Mike Evans WR18 - DK Metcalf WR19 - George Pickens WR20 - Zay Flowers WR21 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR22 - Jameson Williams WR24 - Rashid Shaheed |
Tier 3 -- Offensive environment or matchup concerns keeping them out of Tier 2 |
WR13 - Tyreek Hill WR17 - Malik Nabers (the Giants are only implied for 16 points -- for reference, DJ Moore's Bears implied total is 20 points -- and we could see a total implosion from Daniel Jones against this Browns defense) WR26 - Diontae Johnson (I honestly do expect Carolina's offensive environment to be fine with Dalton at QB) WR27 - Terry McLaurin WR28 - Drake London |
Tier 4 -- Super solid projections (even if there's not quite as much blow-up game potential) |
WR25 - Stefon Diggs WR35 - Khalil Shakir WR38 - Michael Pittman WR40 - Demarcus Robinson WR46 - Jakobi Meyers WR48 - Andrei Iosivas WR49 - Jauan Jennings (this feels like a safe spot for him. If you need security, this is the range of receivers I would consider starting him ahead of. If swinging for more upside, there's lots of players ranked lower who you could start instead) |
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Tier 5 -- I have no idea what to expect from this group, but it could be fun! |
WR23 - Tank Dell WR29 - Amari Cooper WR30 - Jaylen Waddle WR31 - Courtland Sutton WR32 - Calvin Ridley WR33 - Christian Kirk WR34 - Brian Thomas Jr. (the schematic matchup strongly favors Kirk, and BTJ isn't yet playing a full-time role) WR35 - Xavier Worthy WR37 - Rome Odunze WR39 - Jayden Reed WR41 - Quentin Johnston WR42 - Ladd McConkey WR47 - Tee Higgins WR51 - DeAndre Hopkins WR53 - Josh Downs |
Tier 6 -- Desperation plays |
WR43 - Brandin Cooks WR44 - Tyler Lockett WR46 - Jerry Jeudy WR50 - Tyler Johnson WR52 - Keon Coleman WR54 - Christian Watson WR55 - Romeo Doubs WR56 - Gabe Davis WR57 - Greg Dortch WR58 - Darnell Mooney WR59 - Adam Thielen WR60 - Jacob Cowing WR61 - Jordan Whittington WR62 - Adonai Mitchell WR63 - Alec Pierce WR64 - Wan'Dale Robinson WR65 - Jalen McMillan |
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Tight Ends |
Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
TE1 - Trey McBride TE2 - Brock Bowers TE3 - Sam LaPorta TE4 - Travis Kelce TE5 - Mark Andrews TE6 - Dalton Kincaid TE7 - Kyle Pitts TE8 - Hunter Henry |
Tier 2 -- Don't love the matchup/game set-up |
TE9 - Dallas Goedert TE10 - Pat Freiermuth TE13 - Jake Ferguson TE14 - Isaiah Likely |
Tier 3 -- Streamers |
TE11 - Mike Gesicki TE12 - Zach Ertz TE15 - Noah Fant TE16 - Dalton Schultz TE17 - Colby Parkinson TE18 - Greg Dulcich TE19 - Jonnu Smith TE20 - Foster Moreau TE21 - Brenton Strange TE22 - Cole Kmet TE23 - Hayden Hurst TE24 - Tucker Kraft TE25 - Tommy Tremble TE26 - Cade Otton TE27 - Gerald Everett TE28 - Chig Okonkwo TE29 - Juwan Johnson TE30 - Erick All |
I'll be in your inbox every weekday and every Sunday morning for the foreseeable future! NFL is back, baby! I am so grateful and excited to be able to deliver this newsletter to you as we navigate the 2024 season together. Thank you! This is going to be fun! |
If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Dan and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! |
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| | | | | | Who can remain undefeated through NFL Week 3? Watch your local game live this Sunday at 1 ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+. Watch Live | | The Trojans travel to the Big House for a big time matchup this Saturday at 3:30 ET. Watch live on CBS and streaming on Paramount+. Watch Live |
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