| | | | Wednesday, September 29, 2021 | | With three weeks out of the way, expect to see the trade market in your Fantasy leagues heat up. Tuesday, I was able to shore up the biggest weakness in one of my leagues, swapping Ja'Marr Chase for George Kittle in a one-for-one swap that still leaves me with Cooper Kupp. D.J. Moore, Brandin Cooks, Allen Robinson, and (eventually) Michael Thomas. I started Cole Kmet at TE in Week 3, so it was kind of a no-brainer. | | I'm staring at a much tougher situation in another league, my longest-running home league. I've pretty much made the wrong decision every single week when setting my lineups, most recently leaving James Robinson, Emmanuel Sanders, and the Panthers DST on the bench, decisions that certainly cost me a win. I'm 0-3 and I have no one to blame for myself -- I rank dead last in coach rating in the CBS Fantasy game. | | The problem I've got in that league is I simply have too many similarly valued players that I'm trying to choose from. I've trusted Allen Robinson each week, and I left Myles Gaskin in over James Robinson in Week 3. This is a team that is in desperate need of a trade to limit the number of decisions I have to make, but this is also league where it is incredibly hard to actually make trades -- 10 teams and deep benches means nobody really has an obvious hole. I may just be stuck with this team, agonizing over these decisions all season long. | | Today's newsletter is all about trying to help you avoid that fate. First up, I've got my Week 4 Stock Watch here for you, with five players to buy and five to sell if you're looking to make a trade -- and make sure you've got Dave's Trade Values Chart handy to make sure you're making a smart move. | | After that, let's get acquainted with the state of each position for this week, with Heath Cummings' position previews. I've got the latest injury news from each position, and then Heath gives you everything else you need to know. | | And, in case you missed it yesterday, check out my rankings below with a whole bunch of comments on why I like or dislike certain players this week that I compiled while going through the process of ranking them: | QB Rankings | RB Rankings | WR Rankings | TE Rankings
| | Hopefully that helps you get an understanding of what to expect for this week. Here's what the rest of today's newsletter has in store to help you get ready for Week 4: | | 📈Week 4 Stock Watch📉🔍Week 4 Position Previews | | | | 📈Week 4 Stock Watch📉 | | | | Looking to make a trade? You know your team a little bit, and you might know where your weak points are already. Or, you might know how to take advantage of someone else's slow start. Make sure you've got your bearings before you go make offers with the help of Dave Richard's Trade Values Chart, and here are five players whose stock I'm buying and five I'm selling ahead of Week 4. | | Five to buy | | Here are five big players I'm buying into moving forward. Things are only going to get better from here. | | Buy High | | You don't always have to sell high or buy low. Sometimes a hot start is just the beginning of something big, and there's value in trying to buy those situations before their perceived value catches up. | | Chase Edmonds -- Edmonds is currently RB16 in PPR scoring despite having zero touchdowns on 47 touches. You should expected Edmonds to score fewer touchdowns than your typical running back given the same amount of work, given that he'll likely never be a focal point near the goal line, but he still managed to have five touchdowns on 150 touches last season, and there's no reason to think he won't have a similar rate this season. Given his expanded role -- up from 9.4 to 15.6 touches per game -- it's not unreasonable to expect Edmonds to score around eight touchdowns this season. He could be a top-12 RB if that happens, but he'll never cost that. Odell Beckham -- I did not expect Beckham to have as big a role as he did in his first game back, and now I'm rethinking what my expectations should be. Beckham played 47 of 57 snaps before the fourth quarter and had a 29% target share. His time in Cleveland has been defined by disappointment, but with Jarvis Landry on IR with a knee injury, he's looking like a top-24 WR already. | | Buy low | | But if you do want to buy low, here are three players I think have seen their worst days already: | | Robert Woods -- It's been tough to watch Cooper Kupp consistently demolish opposing defenses while Woods ranks just 48th in PPR scoring at WR right now, but you have to have faith he'll turn it around. There's just no good reason why Woods shouldn't be able to thrive with Matthew Stafford given how good he was with Jared Goff. He's still getting a healthy target share, and I'm willing to bet Woods will be a top-24 WR moving forward. Allen Robinson -- To quote one of my favorite songs of the last few years, "It won't be this bleak forever -- and I hope you're right." Robinson has been a must-start Fantasy receiver for years without ever really having good quarterback play, so I have to assume the Bears will figure this out and get him going. It's not a stretch to say their season likely depends on. The good news is, you can probably get Robinson dirt cheap. Dave has him as a 15 in the trade values chart, in the same range as Ja'Marr Chase and James Robinson , but I think a lot of you could grab him for a lot less. The folks with Robinson on their rosters are probably panicking, and I would see if I could get him for someone like Christian Kirk plus a piece. Kyle Pitts -- If you're buying into Pitts, you are buying into the idea that the Falcons offense will figure things out eventually. I've certainly downgraded my expectations on that front given how they've started the season, but I'm still pretty confident they'll be better than 16.0 points per game, and Matt Ryan will almost certainly be better than 6.0 yards per attempt moving forward -- his previous career-low was 6.5 back in 2009 and 2020. Pitts is running a route on 81.3% of the Falcons pass plays overall, and he's simply too talented of a playmaker not to be targeted more moving forward. Maybe Pitts isn't going to be an elite tight end this season -- though I wouldn't write that possibility off entirely -- but if this offense is going to improve, he'll have to be a big part of that. | | | | Five to sell | | Sell high | | I'm not saying these guys won't be useful or good moving forward, but I think you can probably get more in return for them than you're likely to get from them: | | Ja'Marr Chase -- This one could, of course, end up being a huge mistake. Chase is an elite prospect who has already demonstrated the ability to make plays in the NFL. The idea of him remaining a high-level performer moving forward is not a tough one for me to conceive, and I think there are several top-12 WR finishes in his future. But the Bengals have been a fairly low-volume pass offense so far, and they've been using Chase more like a deep threat than as a true No. 1, and I'm not sure that's guaranteed to change unless Tee Higgins ' shoulder injury is more serious than we think. Chase is an awesome player, but if you could flip him for a top-12 WR or top-15 RB, I think you should do it. I just got George Kittle for him, and I'm happy with that. Melvin Gordon -- Gordon is, as expected, the lead back for the Broncos, and he's been better than Javonte Williams to date in pretty much a 50-50 split. But there's no way he's going to remain a top-15 running back in his current role, where he has 42 carries and just seven targets through three games. Nearly 30% of his points on the season came on one 70-yard run in Week 1, and he's averaging 3.14 yards per carry otherwise. Williams is the future of this backfield, and you should get what you can out of Gordon while you can.Zack Moss -- I'm not sure how people are valuing Moss right now, but I'm not buying the idea that he's suddenly a viable Fantasy starter after he was inactive in Week 1. This Buffalo offense has never been a good one for running back Fantasy production, but Moss has three touchdowns on 26 touches in two games. Maybe the Bills are changing their approach to get the running backs more involved near the goal line, but the bet should still be that Josh Allen will throw for a bunch of touchdowns and score a handful more, leaving the backs with just the scraps. If Moss is still splitting carries with Devin Singletary, he's going to be a fringe Fantasy option. | | Sell low | | Sometimes, getting off a sinking ship is better than hoping they'll be able to fix the breach in the hull. I'm willing to sell these two on name value I don't think they'll live up to: | | Trey Sermon -- This is a pivotal week for Sermon's value. If Elijah Mitchell (shoulder) is unable to play, that means Sermon will likely get one more chance to prove himself after being inactive for Week 1, barely playing in Week 2, and then struggling in Week 3. There's still time for him to emerge as a useful Fantasy option, but if he doesn't do much in Week 4 against the Seahawks, he could be relegated to a reserve role once Mitchell is healthy enough to play. I think that's more likely than not at this point, so I would be looking to shop Sermon coming off a game where he finished RB25. That might be the relative high point. Myles Gaskin -- Gaskin has been a fixture in the passing game, with at least five targets in each game, but that's about all he's got going for him right now. Even in a game in Week 3 where he saw a season-high 13 carries, it was still Malcolm Brown getting into the game in goal-line situations -- and he was getting plenty of third-down snaps over Gaskin as well. Gaskin really needed to be in a situation where he was dominating touches and snaps like he was in 2020, and that just isn't happening so far this season. I would see what you can get for him before people realize how low his ceiling truly is right now. | | 🔍Week 4 Position Previews | | Every Tuesday, Heath Cummings previews each position, providing injury insights, key stats to know, the best waiver-wire adds, DFS targets, and more for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Here's a brief rundown of each position, along with some key details you need to know about and our expert consensus top-12 rankings before you go read Heath's full breakdowns: | | QB Preview | | | Injuries to know: Justin Fields (hand)/Andy Dalton (knee) -- Fields injured his hand late in Sunday's loss to the Browns, and it seems like both he and Dalton may be in doubt for Week 4 against the Lions. Nick Foles was mentioned as a potential candidate to start by Matt Nagy Tuesday.
Number to know: 1,203 -- "Derek Carr has thrown for a league-leading 1,203 yards in victories over the Ravens, Steelers, and Dolphins." Matchup that matters: Lamar Jackson @DEN (2nd in points allowed to QB)Top streamer: "Sam Darnold. We're going to learn a lot about the Panthers offense and defense this week. If Darnold keeps up what he's done so far, we may consider him more than a streamer. This week he's barely that. " | | Consensus Expert Top 12 | | Patrick MahomesKyler MurrayRussell WilsonJosh AllenLamar JacksonDak PrescottJalen HurtsJustin HerbertTom BradyMatthew Stafford Aaron RodgersKirk Cousins | | | | RB Preview | | | | Injuries to know: Christian McCaffrey (hamstring) -- The Panthers opted not to put McCaffrey on IR, so they seemingly expected him back after either one or two games misses. Chuba Hubbard should be a top-20 RB in Week 4, but his stay in the role may not be long ... Dalvin Cook (ankle) -- Cook was a game-time decision in Week 3, at least in theory, so there should be a chance he'll play this week. Now, it doesn't seem like he actually had much of a chance to play Sunday, so don't be surprised if Alexander Mattison gets another start. He would be a top-10 RB if he does ... Josh Jacobs (toe) -- Jacobs has missed two games as a result of his injury, but it sounds like he could have a chance to play in Week 4. If not, the Raiders probably should have just put him on IR ... Darrell Henderson (ribs) -- Sean McVay expressed optimism about Henderson's chances of playing in Week 4, but he did the same last week, so let's just wait until we see him practice before getting optimistic. If Henderson is out, Sony Michel is a top-15 RB against the Cardinals ... Elijah Mitchell (shoulder) -- Mitchell's status for Sunday's game against the 49ers is very much up in the air, but I'm operating under the assumption he won't play. He did get a limited practice in Friday before being ruled out, so it's not totally unlikely ... James White (hip) -- White was diagnosed with a hip subluxation and is out indefinitely. He hasn't been placed on IR yet, but that seems inevitable, as the Patriots worked out four running backs Tuesday. Brandon Bolden saw a larger role in White's absence, and could see the field a lot in Week 4 against the Buccaneers. Number to know: 12.9% -- "Derrick Henry's target share has doubled this year and it may be sustainable with A.J. Brown on the shelf."Matchup that matters: David Montgomery vs. DET (25th in points allowed to RB)Stash: "There's a week coming when Jeff Wilson leads the 49ers backfield again. With all these injuries, Wilson should be stashed whether you have an IR spot or not. " Top DFS play: Chuba Hubbard -- "Like Alexander Mattison last week, Hubbard is chalk worth playing. I'd expect 10-plus carries and five-plus catches, which should make him a top-12 running back in most all DFS formats. " | | Consensus Expert Top 12 | | Derrick HenryAlvin KamaraAustin EkelerAaron JonesJoe MixonNick ChubbChris CarsonNajee HarrisJonathan TaylorD'Andre Swift Alexander MattisonSaquon Barkley | | WR Preview | | | | Injuries to know: Tee Higgins (shoulder) -- Higgins missed Tuesday's practice as the Bengals kicked off prep for Thursday's game against the Jaguars. That doesn't mean he definitely won't play, however given the extra time off until Week 5, it makes sense that Higgins wouldn't play, so that's what I'm expecting ... A.J. Brown (hamstring) -- Brown is considered week-to-week with his hamstring strain, and I would be stunned if he played in Week 4 against the Jets. The Titans really don't need to push him. It will be interesting to see if Julio Jones pops up on Wednesday's practice report after coach Mike Vrabel vaguely described him as missing Sunday's fourth quarter with "tightness." ... Diontae Johnson (knee)/JuJu Smith-Schuster (ribs) -- Mike Tomlin told reporters Tuesday he thinks both Johnson and Smith-Schuster will practice this week, though that doesn't mean either will play. We'll keep a close eye on reports out of Pittsburgh in the coming days ... KJ Hamler (knee) -- Hamler suffered a torn ACL in Sunday's game and is out for the season. That leaves the Broncos down two of their top three wide receivers until Jerry Jeudy (ankle) is able to return ... Rashod Bateman (groin) -- Bateman is eligible to come off IR this week and will make his return to practice Wednesday. That may not be enough time for him to get ready for Week 4 against the Broncos, but he's worth stashing because his return could be imminent ... Elijah Moore (concussion) -- Moore's status for Sunday's game against the Titans is very much in doubt at this point, though he'll go through the protocol before being ruled out. If he doesn't play and Jamison Crowder (groin) isn't ready to return, Braxton Berrios and Keelan Cole would likely see a bigger role. However, even against a pretty good matchup, neither is worth using; Corey Davis is barely a WR4. Number to know: 37.6% -- "Brandin Cooks leads all receivers with a 37.6% target share."Matchup that matters: Terry McLaurin @ATL (21st in points allowed to WR)Stash: "Bryan Edwards' target share is way too low to consider starting, but he's been awesome and he looks like a future star. If Derek Carr starts targeting him more, Edwards could take off. That's exactly the type of guy you should be stashing.." Top DFS play: "Michael Pittman has 24 targets over his past two games and looks to be emerging as a true No. 1 receiver for the Colts. But he's priced more like a low-end No. 3." | | Consensus Expert Top 12 | | Davante AdamsTyreek HillCooper KuppKeenan AllenStefon DiggsJustin JeffersonTyler LockettCalvin RidleyDK MetcalfCeeDee Lamb DeAndre HopkinsChris Godwin | | TE Preview | | | | Injuries to know: George Kittle (calf) -- Kittle is dealing with a sore calf and is being viewed as day-to-day heading into Week 4 against the Seahawks. We'll monitor his status through practice, but I'm not concerned yet. Number to know: 11.1 -- "Mark Andrews' 11.1 air yards per target is tops amongst tight ends with at least 10 targets. "Matchup that matters: Logan Thomas @ATL (29th in points allowed to TE) Streamer: "Dalton Schultz has scored double-digit Fantasy points in two of three games this season and he's consistently playing more than Blake Jarwin. The Cowboys have produced a borderline No. 1 tight end each of the past two seasons, and it looks like Schultz could make it three in a row." Top DFS play: "The gap between Travis Kelce and everyone else is really highlighted by weeks when Darren Waller is not on the main slate. I'd much rather save money somewhere else and pay up for Kelce's consistent excellence." | | Consensus Expert Top 12 | | Tim PatrickTravis KelceDarren WallerT.J. HockensonRob GronkowskiGeorge KittleKyle PittsMark AndrewsNoah FantTyler Higbee Logan ThomasDallas GoedertEvan Engram | | | | | | | | Drop In. Ride On. | | UEFA Champions League on P+ | Tune into PBR RIDEPASS, exclusively on Pluto TV. Download the Pluto TV app to watch thrilling western sports, plus over 200 channels of movies, TV shows, news, sports and more, all 100% free.
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