| | | | Friday, October 9, 2020 | | We've got more schedule shuffling going on, as we learned Thursday that the Titans-Bills and Patriots-Broncos games are being pushed back to later in Week 5. Instead of playing Sunday, the Patriots and Broncos are scheduled to play Monday night, while the Titans and Bills are tentatively scheduled for Tuesday night. And Friday morning, we learned the Jets had a presumptive positive test, putting their Sunday matchup with the Cardinals in question. | | So, that's what we're dealing with in another very strange week for the NFL. There's been a lot of that lately, and I've got everything you need to know about how to handle both games for your lineup in today's newsletter. Plus, my recap of Thursday night's biggest storylines in the Bears' surprising win over the Buccaneers and my preview for the rest of the Week 5 schedule can be found below. I've got the latest injury news for every team along with advice for the the toughest lineup decisions and what I'll be watching for in each game to help you get ready. | | And here's everything else you need to win in Week 5: Start 'Em & Sit 'Em | Starts & Sits, Sleepers & Risks | Biggest questions | Matchup notes | QB Start 'Em & Sit 'Em | RB Start 'Em & Sit 'Em | WR Start 'Em & Sit 'Em | Waiver Wire | QB Preview | RB Preview | WR Preview | TE Preview | Trade Values | Cut List | | | | TEN-BUF, NE-DEN update | | | | The good news is, neither team reported a new positive test Friday morning. Assuming the Patriots can avoid any further positive tests — they've had none since Stephon Gillmore tested positive Tuesday and haven't been at their facilities since — that game seems like it's less at risk of further postponement. Luckily there aren't many big Fantasy names in that game to worry about. Try to grab Justin Jackson (41% rostered, playing Monday night) in case Melvin Gordon can't go, and consider Jalen Guyton (1%) or Tre'Quan Smith (41%) if you want to start Julian Edelman , but it should be easy enough to just avoid guys in that game if you don't want the headache. | | Bills-Titans is a different story altogether. The names involved are huge — Derrick Henry, Stefon Diggs, Josh Allen, A.J. Brown, and Devin Singletary would all likely be started under normal circumstances — and the risk of further postponement is much higher. The Titans need to make it through the next three days with no additional tests after 22 members of the organization tested positive over the last week. Since they aren't scheduled to play until Tuesday, you probably can't keep anyone in this game in your lineup, sadly. That's unfortunate, but it's the reality of the situation. | | If the game does go on, the stats will count for Week 5 in CBS Fantasy leagues, and waivers will still run Wednesday morning as usual unless your league opts to push them back. But that's a pretty big if at this point. | | | | TNF Recap: Bears 20, Buccaneers 19 | | | | Four days after his most promising performance of the season, Tom Brady turned in a pretty big dud as he lost to Nick Foles again. Hopefully Thursday's game got you off to a good start in Week 5, and most of the top Fantasy options between the Bears and Buccaneers did well enough that you shouldn't be in too tough a spot. | | The big takeaway: Ugly wins are still wins in the standings, and the Bears are one ugly 4-1 team. And ugly Fantasy points still count for your score... so David Montgomery is one ugly must-start running back. Yep, I said it. He did not play well in Week 5 — 2.9 yards per carry, 3.75 per target — but he still finished with 18.9 Fantasy points in PPR and 11.9 in non-PPR, and this game highlighted why I'm so bullish on him for Fantasy. With Nick Foles in at QB and Tarik Cohen out, there's a ton of opportunity in the passing game, and he has 14 target targets in the two games Cohen has missed, giving him a nice floor. And he has no competition for goal-line work, giving him upside when he gets those opportunities. You might not want to watch him play, but Montgomery is in a good spot to remain a solid Fantasy option moving forward. Time to worry about Evans? I feel like I'm definitely in the minority on being concerned about Mike Evans , but there are real warning signs here. The nine targets were nice, but they came in a game where Brady threw it 41 times; he averaged 11 targets in games where the Bucs threw 40-plus times last season. The bigger issue is that Brady largely stopped looking for him down the field after a promising Week 4. Two of the first three targets sent Evans' way were deep shots, but everything else from that point on was short. After having just four games in 44 over his previous three seasons with an average depth of target below 10.0 yards, Thursday was his fourth in five with Brady. Add in that his target share is down, too — Thursday was his fourth game with a target share below 22% even with Chris Godwin missing three of five, after he averaged 23% in 2019 — and you've got a bad recipe. You won't turn away a guy with six touchdowns, but Evans is currently on pace for just 70 catches for 867 yards. If — when — the touchdown pace slows, Evans could be a pretty big disappointment. Mostly good news for RoJo, but… Ronald Jones put together his second straight 100-yard game with Leonard Fournette active but only in an emergency role, and he's doing exactly what he needs to do to make sure he doesn't lose his job. However, per PFF, Jones didn't play a single snap on third or fourth down, with Ke'Shawn Vaughn taking 13 of them. Vaughn was a non-factor otherwise — he had five snaps on first and second down, all in two-minute drills — but if Jones isn't going to have much of a role in obvious passing situations, it might make it really tough for him to remain a reliable Fantasy starter when Fournette comes back. If Vaughn (or LeSean McCoy ) is handling passing downs and Jones and Fournette are splitting early work, it could lead to an outcome where everyone is just a low-end starting option. Possible waiver-wire targets: Tyler Johnson (0% rostered) — Six targets, four catches, 61 yards; very productive collegiate receiver. Could be a consistent contributor with Godwin out; Cameron Brate (8%) — With O.J. Howard out, the Buccaneers still relied on their tight ends, and Brate matched Rob Gronkowski with six targets. Tanner Hudson also had four, so there are a lot of opportunities here. | | | Week 5 Preview: Injury updates, what to watch and more
| | | | All lines from William Hill Sportsbook. For more game-by-game Fantasy advice, check out Dave Richard's Week 5 preview and Frank Stampfl's matchup notes for every game. "The line wants us to believe" from Dave Richard. | | On bye: Packers-Lions | | Rams at Washington — Sunday, 1:00 p.m. | | Line: WASH + 7.5; o/u 46.5 Implied totals: WAS 19.5-LAR 27 The line wants us to believe: Washington will compete. It's a team that's lost three straight games by 14 or more points. A change to Kyle Allen at quarterback is going to change things? The Rams offense isn't as bad as it looked last week, and Jared Goff should prove that pretty convincingly. Toughest lineup decision: Rams running backs — Sit. You may not have a choice, but this seems like a really tough situation to gauge right now. Malcolm Brown saw extra work in Week 4, because he's the guy they trust most in the passing game and they wanted to run the ball between the tackles. There should be plenty of opportunities to run the ball all over the field in this one, but with Cam Akers likely returning, can you trust any of them? If you have to start one, Darrell Henderson is still the best bet. What we're watching for: The assumption is Allen is just a placeholder for Alex Smith, but it'll be interesting to see if he's improved any from last season. It's tough to trust this offense right now, but Allen did sustain D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey last season. Injuries: Cam Akers (ribs) — Full practice Thursday, should be back this week… Terry McLaurin (thigh) — Limited practice Thursday. This is shaping up like last week, when McLaurin played and was excellent. | | Eagles at Steelers — Sunday, 1:00 p.m. | | Line: PIT -7; o/u 44.5 Implied totals: PHI 18.72-PIT 25.75 The line wants us to believe: The Eagles have enough spunk to hang relatively close. I actually think it's a fair line but the public is all over Pittsburgh. They're rested while the Eagles are on the road for a second straight week. It might take a defensive touchdown for the Steelers to cover more than a touchdown. Toughest lineup decision: Eric Ebron — Start. There aren't really a lot of edge cases in this game — you're starting Miles Sanders and Zach Ertz, and that's it for the Eagles — but Ebron is a pretty fringe-y option. You're hoping for a touchdown, which is true of all but about six tight ends right now, and at least Ebron plays with a good quarterback. What we're watching for: We still want to see more from the Eagles offense, but this matchup might make it tough to judge even if they do play well. So I want to watch how the Steelers us their receivers. JuJu Smith-Schuster has a touchdown in each game, which has helped paper over a pretty alarming lack of targets. Would like to see him more involved, given how well he's playing, but Diontae Johnson has looked like the No. 1 target so far. Injuries: Alshon Jeffery (illness) — He's working his way back from foot surgery, so hopefully this doesn't delay him. He could still return in Week 5, but this does make it somewhat less likely… DeSean Jackson (hamstring) — Limited at practice, so Friday could be the key day. You probably won't want to trust him in Week 5 either way, but he's always got big boom potential… Diontae Johnson (toe)/JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) — Both practiced in full Thursday and will play their usual roles in Week 5. | | Cardinals at Jets — Sunday, 1:00 p.m. | | Note: The Jets had a presumptive positive test Friday morning and sent everyone home from their team facilities as a result. That does not necessarily mean the game will be rescheduled — the Patriots played in Week 4 following a Saturday positive test — but it does mean there is some risk here. | Line: NYJ + 7.5; o/u 47
Implied totals: ARI 27.25-NYJ 19.75 The line wants us to believe: That the stink of the Jets overwhelms the stink of the Cardinals' last two games. Truth is, no one wants to willingly put actual currency on the Jets. But can the Cardinals beat them by eight-plus on the road after consecutive disappointments against the Lions and Panthers? This would be the right week for Arizona to get aggressive with their offense. Toughest lineup decision: Jamison Crowder and Le'Veon Bell — Start. Ooh, I don't feel good about that one. Joe Flacco is starting for the Jets coming off neck surgery, so expectations should be low. However, figure he'll take a lot of short throws, which should benefit Bell and Crowder most in this offense. Crowder is a No. 2 WR in PPR, while Bell is more of a low-end starter. What we're watching for: The Cardinals offense really hasn't been very good at all, and that's in spite of Kyler Murray's brilliance as a runner. Kenyan Drake has been a non-factor, and the non-DeAndre Hopkins receivers have been missing in action. The Cardinals are in the midst of an incredibly easy stretch of the schedule with the Cowboys and Seahawks up next, so a big game from Murray where he gets the likes Christian Kirk and the running backs involved in the passing game would be nice to see. Injuries: Sam Darnold (shoulder) — Joe Flacco is expected to start in Week 5… Le'Veon Bell (hamstring) — He is eligible to return from IR this week and seems likely to be back as the top back for the Jets, but we may not know officially under the weekend… Kenyan Drake (chest) — This is a non-issue, he hasn't been limited at practice at all… | | Raiders at Chiefs — Sunday, 1:00 p.m. | | Line: KC -12; o/u 55 Implied totals: LV 21.5-KC 33.5 The line wants us to believe: Another Chiefs blowout is upon us. Three of their four wins have come by at least two touchdowns, so it's pretty easy to believe. Las Vegas' injuries should help pave the way, though their offense has played better than expected. At the very least they should get close to their 21.75 implied point total. Toughest lineup decision: Mecole Hardman — Sit. Add him anywhere he's available, but I'm not ready to trust Hardman as anything more than a desperation play. His playing time is trending up, and if he reaches the point where he's playing 65% of the team's snaps, Hardman could be a very useful option. In Week 4, he was only at 46%, so you're still taking a risk here. What we're watching for: There really aren't many questions about either of these two teams, but if Henry Ruggs III is healthy enough to play, we'd like to see him be a big part of the game plan, especially down the field, in a spot where the Raiders will likely have to chase points. Injuries: Bryan Edwards (foot/ankle) — Seems extremely unlikely to play in Week 5. Has not practiced yet… Henry Ruggs (hamstring) — Full practice Thursday, should be back in Week 5. He's a boom-or-bust play against a tough matchup, so the most likely outcome is bust. Just depends on your risk tolerance… | | Jaguars at Texans — Sunday, 1:00 p.m. | | Line: HOU -5; o/u 54 Implied totals: JAC 24.5-HOU 29.5 The line wants us to believe: The Texans can beat anybody by a touchdown. The reality is that Bill O'Brien's firing figures to fire up the Texans on both sides of the ball. An injury-riddled Jaguars team isn't in position to compete. I do think both teams fall short of their implied point totals (24 for the Jags, 30 for the Texans). I also think Deshaun Watson runs the offense his way, which should be great. Toughest lineup decision: Gardner Minshew — Start. This could be a game with a ton of offense, but Minshew is still viewed as something of a fringe starter. He's not a must start, by any means, but he's got weapons and he takes care of the ball, and there could be an opportunity for a lot of scoring in this one. What we're watching for: David Johnson saw his snap rate dip to 55% with Duke Johnson back in Week 4, after being at 81% or over the first three games. David Johnson is still running a ton of routes split out wide, but his passing game usage (nine catches, 14 targets in four games) has been disappointing, so I want to see if the return of Duke Johnson is really going to limit his value, or if that was just a one-game thing. Injuries: Laviska Shenault (hamstring) — We'll want to see him get a full practice in Friday to feel confident in starting him, but Shenault is something of a fringe starter anyway, so maybe you steer clear for this week… | | Bengals at Ravens — Sunday, 1:00 p.m. | | Line: BAL -13; o/u 51 Implied totals: CIN 19-BAL 32 The line wants us to believe: The Ravens blow out the previously winless Bengals. It's a public perception line for sure, though the public isn't buying it. More money is coming in on the Bengals. Given the Ravens' offensive mishaps, I'm not positive they can score their implied 32 points. Seems like a lot. It would be huge for Joe Burrow to manage to hang around until the fourth quarter. Toughest lineup decision: Mark Ingram — Sit. Last year, the Ravens top running backs averaged 20.9 carries, 108.0 yards, and 2.3 targets per game; this year, they're at 19.0 carries, 101.8 yards, and 3.0 targets per game. So why has Mark Ingram fallen from the ranks of the must-start to a fringe option? Because this year, it's three backs splitting that work, when last year it was just Ingram and Gus Edwards. The addition of J.K. Dobbins has complicated things, and I'm not sure you can trust Ingram even in this cake matchup. What we're watching for: A.J. Green seems to be losing his place in the offense with Tee Higgins rising to replace him, so I want to see if that continues. Based on what we've seen so far, it definitely should. I'm trying to buy Higgins where I can, because Burrow is looking for him in the red zone and down the field often. I love what we're seeing from that duo right now. Injuries: Joe Mixon (shin) — Mixon was a new addition to the injury report Thursday, so he might have suffered injury during practice. At this point, there's no indication it is something serious, but we'll keep eye out… Lamar Jackson (knee) — Jackson has missed two days in a row at practice, first because of the knee and then a stomach issue, but at this point, neither is expected to keep him out… Mark Andrews (thigh) — Andrews was another new addition to the injury report Thursday, which can sometimes be a bad sign, but we don't have any indication this one is a serious issue right now. | | Panthers at Falcons — Sunday, 1:00 p.m. | | Line: ATL -1.5; o/u 53.5 Implied totals: CAR 26-ATL 27.5 The line wants us to believe: The Falcons are just barely good enough. The whole world watched them get paddled at Green Bay -- now they're favorites? I feel like the oddsmakers want me to take the Panthers. And I will. Their defense is playing better while the Falcons defense is in the infirmary. Mike Davis should have one more monster stat line. Toughest lineup decision: Matt Ryan — Sit. He's definitely not a must-sit, but you can't be happy with how he's played without Julio Jones the last two weeks, and he probably won't have Jones back this week. Hopefully Calvin Ridley is closer to full strength, but if you've got another option — like the other guy in this game — go for it. What we're watching for: Four games is probably enough to make this a trend worth believing, but I'll still be on the lookout for the Robby Anderson/D.J. Moore target disparity. It's just so weird that the Panthers have taken Moore out of a role he was so good in to make him a deep threat when Anderson had more success in that role before, but that's what we're seeing. Moore needs a big game or we can probably write off top-12 WR upside. Injuries: Julio Jones (hamstring) — Has not practiced this week, probably a real long shot to play… Calvin Ridley (thigh/knee) — Limited Wednesday and Thursday, will likely play through the injury like he did last week. | | Dolphins at 49ers — Sunday, 4:05 p.m. | | Line: SF -9; o/u 51.5 Implied totals: MIA 21.25-SF 30.25 The line wants us to believe: San Francisco steamrolls to a home win. I know it sounds silly, but I just don't think the Dolphins will struggle. It's kind of in Ryan Fitzpatrick's nature to play well when no one expects it and stink when everyone believes in him. Stunningly, the public is all over the Dolphins. Like more than any team. That makes me nervous to take them. Toughest lineup decision: Myles Gaskin — Start. There's a theme for me: If you're a running back with little competition for touches, especially in the passing game, I'm probably starting you. It's a tough matchup, for sure, but Gaskin has at least three catches and four targets in every game so far, which gives him a solid floor. I'm not excited to start him, but he'd be in my lineup over someone like Darrell Henderson in a more crowded backfield. What we're watching for: If Raheem Mostert is back, how will the 49ers split running back work? In the first two games when Mostert was healthy, Jerick McKinnon played just 32 snaps combined; he topped that easily in the two Mostert missed. How much of his limited early role was about managing his workload in his first two games back after missing two season? I bet we see a lot of both of them this week. Injuries: Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) — Limited at practice again Thursday. Still not clear if he'll be back this week, but there is definitely a chance… Raheem Mostert (knee) — Limited practice again as he tries to return from a two-game absence. Even if Mostert is back, Jerick McKinnon still figures to see a healthy role with how well he has played so far. Both would be worth starting… DeVante Parker (ankle) — Parker was upgraded to a full participant in practice Thursday after being limited Wednesday. At this point, Parker looks like a must-start to me. | | Giants at Cowboys — Sunday, 4:25 p.m. | | Line: DAL -8.5; o/u 54 Implied totals: NYG 22.75-DAL 31.25 The line wants us to believe: The oddsmakers need to give a lot of points to get even action on a game involving the Giants. I don't think the Cowboys defense is good enough to keep anyone in the league from getting within 10 points. Jason Garrett has good information on his old team and is sure to help his new team stick around. Giants are desperate for a win, too. They'll give a fight. Toughest lineup decision: Michael Gallup — Start. You're probably pretty worried about Gallup given that he's topped 60 yards just once this season and has five targets in three of four games. However, I would just point out that he's seeing a ton of deep targets and air yards, and there is still huge upside here every week. As boom-or-bust wide receivers go, he's one of the best around. What we're watching for: We've got a real "Stoppable Force vs. Movable Object" matchup here between the Giants awful offense and the Cowboys awful defense. If the Cowboys get lit up by Daniel Jones and his motley crew of "weapons", they're going to be the defense to target the rest of the way. And, given how fast Dallas' offense plays, Jones really might have a good game. Just don't hold me to it. Injuries: None of note. | | Colts at Browns — Sunday, 4:25 p.m. | | Line: CLE +1.5; o/u 47 Implied totals: CLE 22.75-IND 24.25 The line wants us to believe: The Browns were a fraud in Week 4. I don't think they're a fraud, period. They're well coached and whoever on defense is healthy will make things difficult on the Colts. Do the oddsmakers want everybody to take the Browns? This one I don't think I can resist. Toughest lineup decision: D'Ernest Johnson — Sit. You might have spent big on him in FAB this week, but I'm just not convinced Johnson is in as good a situation as he looked last week. The Browns had the benefit of nursing a big lead against the Cowboys, creating lots of opportunities. And Kareem Hunt's groin injury likely kept him from playing a bigger role. If Hunt is healthier and this game is more competitive — and I expect both — Johnson may be capped at around 10 carries, which is pretty uninspiring. What we're watching for: I gave up on A.J. Green after last week, and I'm pretty close to doing the same with T.Y. Hilton, so I'd sure like to see him give me a reason not to. There haven't been many so far this season. Injuries: Odell Beckham (toe) — It doesn't sound like this is a serious issue, but if he's limited again Friday, you might have to worry he won't be at full speed. You're still starting him, though… Kareem Hunt (groin) — Hunt was limited by this injury last week, which might explain why we saw so much of D'Ernest Johnson and Dontrell Hilliard in Week 4, but it also may mean we see some them this week, too. | | Vikings at Seahawks — Sunday, 1:00 p.m. | | Line: SEA -7; o/u 57 Implied totals: MIN 25-SEA 32 The line wants us to believe: The Vikings we saw last week aren't the real Vikings. Give credit to them, though, they've found some players to help them compete. Playing on the road for a consecutive week stinks but the Vikings should be able to stay within a score versus a Seattle defense that only looked good in Week 4 because of Ryan Fitzpatrick. Toughest lineup decision: Justin Jefferson — Start. There are going to be dud games coming given how rarely the Vikings throw the ball, but this shouldn't be one of them. The Seahawks are an exploitable matchup with a suspect defense, and Jefferson looks like the real deal, especially with his downfield role locked in. Expect another big game. What we're watching for: These are two teams with highly concentrated offenses, so it's basically the QB, RB, and two WR who you are looking at every week. Which means there isn't much to look out for, but I do want to see the Vikings continue to focus on Jefferson and Adam Thielen in the passing game. Given how few there are to go around, every target to someone else in the offense increase the risk of relying on either. Injuries: Carlos Hyde (shoulder) — Limited both Wednesday and Thursday, but could be held out again, coach Pete Carroll told reporters earlier this week. | | Chargers at Saints — Sunday, 1:00 p.m. | | Line: NO -7.5; o/u 50.5 Implied totals: LAC 21.5-NO 29 The line wants us to believe: The Saints are good enough to pull away. They did last week against an inept Lions squad, they could certainly do the same versus the Bolts. Admittedly, the Chargers are fun. But they're just not ready to be in the same class as New Orleans. Drew Brees might still have an axe to grind with his old team. Toughest lineup decision: Joshua Kelley/Justin Jackson — Start only as flexes. I'd prefer to sit both, but this is still a good spot for running back value given how often they want to run and throw to the running backs. Conventional wisdom is Kelley is the better play, but I have a sneaking suspicion Jackson may be the passing down's option, which could make him the better choice if the Chargers are chasing points. What we're watching for: It's that Chargers backfield split. It's unlikely either takes a significant majority of the work, but Kelley's fumble issues could cost him if it comes up again. We'll want to see how they split the work, in the running down, in the passing game, and near the goal-line if they get any opportunities. Injuries: Michael Thomas (ankle) — Limited at practice Thursday as he aims to make his return this week… Jared Cook (groin) — Limited at practice Thursday, an improvement from last week… Mike Williams (hamstring) — Did not practice Thursday, unlikely to play in Week 5. | | | | | | | | SEC on CBS | | NFL on CBS | No. 14 Tennessee takes on No. 3 Georgia on the SEC on CBS Game of the Week. Watch live on Saturday at 3:30 PM ET on CBS and the CBS Sports App.
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