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| Wednesday, October 2, 2024 |
| It's Wednesday, which means it's matchup day for FFT Newsletter readers! For me, today is going to be another day to download a ton of information onto Twitter. We are one month into the season, which feels like a decent time to catch everybody up on what just happened over the first four weeks of the regular season. As it always is, it was pure chaos in Fantasy football land. |
| That's what I did all day yesterday -- catch people up on some of the statistical stuff that I track during the season. This season, I'm also making an effort to also include video cut-ups of what I'm seeing on the field. Of course, not everyone has time to down and watch every game every week. Even I don't, I'll admit. I haven't watched a Patriots or Broncos offensive series since Week 1. Most people do have time for a two-minute cut-up, though, right? Everybody poops! |
| So, I've tried to cut up as much film as I have time for this week. For anyone who is curious, I would love to provide a look at what is actually happening on the field. If the brand is "Beyond the Box Score," that surely entails not just underlying data but underlying film evidence as well. |
| Some film cut-ups that you might like: |
| Every Stefon Diggs targetA glimpse at Kyler Murray's bizarre Week 4 (thread) Brian Thomas Jr.'s awesome Week 4 footageAll 10 of Xavier Legette's Week 4 targets Tony Pollard's impressive Week 4 yardage after contact creationEvery Jaxon Smith-Njigba target from Week 4 |
| Some Twitter threads that you might like: |
| I created a thread of QB film cut-ups where every throw of 15+ air yards (when not facing pressure) was included for almost every quarterback. If you wanna watch that, it's sorted by the highest off-target rate (Caleb Williams) on these passes to the lowest (Geno Smith!). RB thread examining which backs have created the most/least yards after initial contactWR thread providing historical context on the rookie receiver class as well as an examination of which receivers have seen an increase/decrease to their target rates from 2023 to 2024. |
| Okay, so today, since I'm going to be more focused on Twitter again, I'm going to split up the matchup notes into both the Wednesday and Thursday newsletters. I want to experiment with that, it may be the format going forward. I asked y'all which newsletters were your favorite/least favorites, and the matchup notes came in first while the DFS content ranked last. No surprise! I think I'll de-emphasize DFS for now (still covering it on Sunday mornings) and create space for even more weekly matchup information on Wednesdays and Thursdays. Also, this particular week feels perfect to institute the change, because Seth Walder of ESPN Analytics is joining Dan and I on Beyond the Box Score on Thursday. One of the topics of discussion will be offensive/defensive line win rates. Perfect! I'll dig into all of the Week 5 matchup notes regarding the line on the same day that I'll discuss win rates with Seth! Be sure to create time in your schedule to dig into all of that info! |
| Reminder -- If you did not catch the Beyond the Box Score podcast episode on FFT that I record with Adam Aizer and Dan Schneier every Monday, you can listen to that here! |
| Another reminder: each Friday, we'll go 'In The Lab' in this space: |
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| If you have want to be part of Friday's newsletter post, feel free to join us in the lab! Fill out this google form, and then check back on Friday! |
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| Our BTJ preseason hype has culminated into a Top-12 Fantasy WR placement for the stud receiver in my Week 5 rankings. Insane! I love this Week 5 matchup for him, though! |
| Week 5 Coverage Data |
| Before we get started, I just wanna point this out. Because it's awesome, as surely you are all converted Nico Collins enthusiasts by now. And it's interesting to point out an adaptation by a defensive coordinator. I'll be monitoring what Ryan Nielsen does with Jacksonville's defense going forward. That unit had been one I've highlighted in this space basically every week. |
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| Alright, let's dig into the Week 5 coverage data. |
| I'm curious to see how Jayden Daniels fares against Cleveland's defense |
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| The Browns rank third in man coverage use (41%) and obviously possess an imposing pass rush. We've seen Daniels carve up some subpar defenses lately, but how will he perform against a Browns defense that has allowed an average of just 191 opponent passing yards (Dak Prescott, Trevor Lawrence, Daniel Jones, and Gardner Minshew being the opposition) in 2024. |
| Daniels has a lower off-target rate vs. man coverage, and probably his worst game (Week 2) was the one where he saw the most zone coverage. Week 1 may have actually been his worst game, and he saw lots of man coverage in that one, and he nearly connected with Terry McLaurin down the field against it but just missed. Since then, we've seen him cleaning up his deep ball accuracy. |
| For what it's worth, Daniels posted notably better passing numbers against zone coverage at the collegiate level. He was also slightly more likely to scramble vs. zone coverage. |
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| If Daniels finds success in this spot, we're likely going to be treated to another big Terry McLaurin game. Scary Terry has been significantly better vs. man coverage throughout his career and the Commanders have been centering the pass game around him as the offense evolves. |
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| Dontayvion Wicks might be a matchup-winner right away |
| The Packers take on a Rams defense that stymied Caleb Williams and the Bears receivers in Week 4 but has otherwise looked extremely susceptible to downfield shots to the receiver position (28th in opponent passer rating on passes of 15+ air yards targeting the WR position) |
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| Photo credit to Footballguys.com - They offer free positional oppositional game log for every team |
| The Rams defense has used press coverage at the eighth-highest rate (66%) in 2024 and has only increased the rate as the season has progressed. Christian Watson has been Green Bay's best weapon vs. press coverage, and Dontayvion Wicks will be asked to step up in his absence. |
| For what it's worth, all three of Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Wicks have seen their per-route data decline when facing press coverage. That's atypical. Press coverage bothers some receivers, but it's rare for it to bother an entire team. My guess is those results have something to do with how effective of a route designer Matt LaFleur is. It's possible that if the timing of his route concepts get disrupted, it throws things off even more than other offenses. |
| Since I felt a bit unsure about what the per-route data was showing me, and since Christian Watson's absence makes that data even messier, I took to Reception Perception to see if I found anything interesting regarding the Packers receivers vs. press coverage. If unfamiliar with RP, it is the work of Matt Harmon, a proprietary wide receiver evaluation system developed to isolate wide receiver performance from outside factors such as coaching and QB play. I highly recommend that you consider looking more into it if that sounds interesting. Matt does fantastic work, and his subscription is one of the few that I pay out of pocket for. |
| Matt's thoughts on Green Bay's receivers vs. press have me excited for this Week 5 matchup. |
| Full Jayden Reed Reception Perception profile |
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Full Dontayvion Wicks Reception Perception profile |
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| Another reason that this matchup feels perfect on paper -- Jordan Love has a history of carving up Cover-3. |
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| Wicks piled up 200 air yards in Week 4, and Week 5's matchup presents as another where he might be peppered with downfield targets. There are not many receivers who I'd start ahead of him. |
| Rashid Shaheed breakout season continues? |
| Another player who Reception Perception believes in as an effective press coverage beater but who has notably worse per-route production when facing press coverage is Chris Olave. I bring this up because the Saints face a Chiefs defense that uses press coverage at by far the highest rate. |
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| Shaheed is currently leading the NFL in yards per route run vs. press coverage (tiny 17-route sample size alert), and Matt Harmon loved what he saw from the former undrafted receiver when working vs. press coverage in 2023. |
| Full Rashid Shaheed Reception Perception profile |
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| This Chiefs defense is a very unusual one. If you want to read more about how Shaheed fits into this matchup, give this a click. |
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| BTJ week is upon us, and Trevor might just be able to not mess it up |
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| Malik Nabers vs. press |
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| D.J. Moore revenge game? |
| I typed the below tweet out and then decided to make "a business decision" as some might say. Didn't feel like getting into it with Carolina Panthers people today. |
| The Panthers have performed well against opposing WR1s this season. Top cover corner Jaycee Horn has played really well. Obviously, D.J. Moore brings risk in Week 5, if you haven't watched any Chicago Bears this season. Still, I'm intrigued by the spot. While Caleb Williams has been the worst deep passer so far, he's remained willing to aggressively attack down the field. And in a matchup against a defense that uses an unusual amount of single-high safety coverage, there will likely be opportunities to attack down the field. |
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| Moore has been toasting defenses on deep routes. What if this is the game where the two connect on deep shots? |
| We need to have a discussion about Amari Cooper |
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| The Amari Cooper formula always results in unrealized air yards at one of the highest rates, but the equation feels particularly hopeless in 2024. Deshaun Watson + both offensive tackles sidelined + Amari Cooper creating less separation = a very low conversion rate. |
| On top of that, Jerry Jeudy may just be working into a larger role. |
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| In Week 5, the Browns face a Washington Commanders defense that has been torched down the field. |
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| For what it's worth, the Commanders defense is coming off of its best performance of the season. Also maybe noteworthy: the Commanders use two-high safeties at the fifth-highest rate (61%), and Cooper has typically buttered his bread vs. single-high. Jeudy leads the team in targets vs. two-high coverage in 2024. Cooper has just a 12% target per route run rate vs. two-high and has turned his 10 targets into all of 28 receiving yards within that split. |
| The specific type of two-high coverage that the Browns use at a high rate is Cover-2. No defense has used Cover-2 more than the Commanders in 2024. Since the start of 2023, when facing Cover-2 with Deshaun Watson at QB, Cooper has the worst splits on the team. |
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| It's just a 53-route sample size, so feel free to make whatever you want of that. Could Cooper get behind this defense? Sure. Absolutely, he could. Could the line hold up long enough for Watson to deliver a catchable ball to Cooper if he does get behind the defense? Anything is possible, I guess. Could Cooper then catch that ball and score real-life fantasy points for our fake football teams? This feels like a good time to log out and consider what might be going on outside. |
| If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Adam, Dan, and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! We do a weekly recap on Mondays and a deep dive with a guest every Thursday, you can find those on YouTube! |
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