| | | | Wednesday, October 4, 2023 | | How should you handle bye weeks? | | How should you handle the seemingly imminent returns of Jonathan Taylor and Cooper Kupp? | | How should you handle the suddenly floundering Bengals offense? | | You've got a lot of questions, and hopefully, we've got some answers. That's the way this is supposed to work, and today's newsletter is about trying to give you the answers you need. First up, we've got Heath Cummings' Week 5 position previews, where he tackles the biggest questions facing each position ahead of our first week of bye weeks. We also covered a lot of trade-talk ground on the Wednesday FFT podcast | | Then, I'm actually answering your questions, with an #AskFFT mailbag. Want to get your specific questions answered? Well, we've got plenty of opportunities for that on the Fantasy Football Today YouTube channel, so make sure you subscribe to get notified every time we go live. And then you can email me at Chris.Towers@Paramount.com to get included in our next #AskFFT mailbag Sunday morning. | | Let's get those answers you're looking for. | | My Week 5 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | | | 🔍Week 5 Position Previews
| | Every Tuesday, Heath Cummings previews each position, providing injury insights, key stats to know, the best waiver-wire adds, DFS targets, and more for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Here's a brief rundown of each position, along with some key details you need to know before you go read Heath's full breakdowns: | | | | QB Preview | | "Week 5 brings us our first round of byes and means that at quarterback you won't have the option of starting Justin Herbert, Geno Smith, Deshaun Watson, or Baker Mayfield. And to be honest, while Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott are both playing, I cannot imagine you want to start either of them either. Neither one ranks as a top 18 QB for me this week. I would even understand if you were wondering if they are droppable. I'm not there yet, but it's a fair question. | | "Burrow is the easiest prognosis. I'm not starting him for the next month and I'm not dropping him. He is the very definition of a must-stash player. He has no floor right now and I'm not sure he has much of a ceiling until he gets healthy. I wouldn't expect that to happen before his Week 7 bye, and I'm not starting him in Week 8 against the 49ers either. Hopefully he's himself by Week 9, Tee Higgins is healthy and the Bengals can salvage their season, and their Fantasy managers' seasons." | | On a bye: Justin Herbert, Geno Smith, Deshaun Watson and Baker MayfieldInjuries: Justin Herbert (finger), Deshaun Watson (shoulder), Matthew Stafford (hip), Kenny Pickett (knee), Jimmy Garoppolo (concussion) and Kyler Murray (knee) Number to know: 3.3 -- Joe Burrow is averaging 3.3 air yards per completion. The Bengals have no shot at big plays right now.Matchup that matters: Sam Howell vs. CHI (31st vs. QB)Waiver add/streamer: Sam Howell, Commanders: "This matchup could not be much better for any QB, but especially one struggling with sacks. The Bears have a 1.6% sack rate, while every other team in the NFL is at least at 3.3%. Their pressure rate of 15.1% is the third worst in the league. Howell should have all day to throw and Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson should feast on this secondary."Stash: Kyler Murray, Cardinals : "While Murray isn't ready to return to practice like Jonathan Taylor and Cooper Kupp, their return is a reminder that Murray is coming. This Cardinals team is much scrappier than we expected, and the addition of Michael Wilson has really helped their receiving corps. Expect Murray to be a borderline top-12 QB once he's healthy." | | | | RB Preview | | "The Indianapolis Colts will welcome Jonathan Taylor back to practice this week and open the 21-day window for him to return to play. Now things get really interesting. | | "We still have not heard from Taylor's camp that his stance on a trade or playing for the Colts this season has changed. We have heard optimism from Shane Steichen that Taylor could potentially play this week, but that is about it. Which means we're at, or rapidly approaching, an inflection point." | On a bye: Austin Ekeler, Joshua Kelley, Jerome Ford , Kareem Hunt, Rashaad White, Sean Tucker, Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet
Injuries: Austin Ekeler (ankle), Saquon Barkley (ankle), Jonathan Taylor (ankle), Javonte Williams (hip), Elijah Mitchell (knee), Jamaal Williams (hamstring), Jeff Wilson (abdomen), Rico Dowdle (hip) and Keontay Ingram (neck)Number to know: 27 -- Tony Pollard already has 27 rush attempts in the red zone. He had 23 all of last season.
Matchup that matters: Brian Robinson Jr. vs. CHI (31st vs. RB)Waiver add: Jaleel McLaughlin, Broncos: "The Broncos' rookie has the team's only rushing touchdown and he's averaged 6.9 yards per touch compared to 5.6 for Samaje Perine and 3.9 for Javonte Williams. Assuming Williams is out, I expect a near even split between McLaughlin and Perine, making them both useful as borderline No. 2 running backs."Stash: Kendre Miller, Saints: "The Saints didn't hold back at all on 28-year-old Alvin Kamara in his first game back. With Jamaal Williams on IR, Kendre Miller is the next man up if Kamara struggles with this workload or suffers an injury." | | | | WR Preview | | "Cooper Kupp will return to practice this week, though that doesn't mean he'll be ready to play in Week 5. Still, it's long past time to make some assumptions about what his return means for the Rams and Puka Nacua. | | "There are at least three ways I could see this going. One, Kupp returns and claims his 32% target share and everyone is left to fight for the scraps. Two, Nacua is a legitimately great wide receiver who impacts Kupp's target share. Three, Kupp is re-injured or never fully regains form. Three is the easiest to diagnose, Nacua would remain a top-12 wide receiver for the foreseeable future. The other two are more complicated." | On a bye: Keenan Allen, Josh Palmer, Quentin Johnston, Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Trey Palmer, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-NjigbaInjuries: Mike Evans (hamstring), Tee Higgins (ribs), Cooper Kupp (hamstring), Diontae Johnson (hamstring), Odell Beckham Jr. (ankle), Rashod Bateman (hamstring), Zay Jones (knee), Treylon Burks (knee) and Jonathan Mingo (concussion)Number to know: 38.2% -- Despite leaving Week 5 for a while with a shoulder injury, Davante Adams still leads the NFL with a 38.2% target share. He also leads the NFL with a 52.7% air yards share.
Matchup that matters: Calvin Ridley @BUF (6th vs. WR) Waiver add: Tyler Boyd, Bengals: "Boyd has 24 targets over the past three weeks and should be the clear No. 2 in the passing game with Tee Higgins out. This is a much better role in PPR than non, because of the low touchdown odds that currently exist in the Bengals world. But that would change if Joe Burrow regains form before Higgins. For now, view Boyd as a low-end WR3 on bye weeks." Stash: Jameson Williams, Lions: "Williams is a great stash on a very good offense with elite upside. Just be patient. He played six games last year and only caught one pass. He missed a large chunk of training camp with a hamstring injury and hasn't been practicing with the team. It would be a big surprise if he made an impact in Week 5." | | TE Preview | | "It's a challenge to find something to do in the intro to the tight end preview every week. I mean, sure, I could complain about how terrible tight end is again. But other than that... well... Sam LaPorta has been pretty awesome! | | "LaPorta ranks fourth among all tight ends in TPRR at 25.7% and second in overall target share at 21.8%. Maybe most impressive is that his 2.30 YPRR is best among all tight ends with a double-digit target share this season. Pretty awesome, indeed." | On a bye: David Njoku, Gerald Everett, Donald Parham Jr., Cade Otton and Noah Fant Injuries: Pat Freiermuth (hamstring), Tyler Higbee (thumb), Luke Musgrave (head), Juwan Johnson (calf), Donald Parham Jr. (wrist), Greg Dulcich (hamstring) and Irv Smith (hamstring)Number to know: 6.0 -- Travis Kelce's 6.0 yards per target would be a career low. Is he not yet healed or showing signs of age?
Matchup that matters: George Kittle vs. DAL (11th vs. TE)Streamer: Jake Ferguson, Cowboys: "14.7 PPR Fantasy points against the Patriots was enough for me, I view Ferguson as a set-it and forget-it starting tight end for the foreseeable future. He has at least seven targets in three of four games and scored a touchdown in the other game. He's a start this week against Arizona." | | #AskFFT Mailbag | | Have some questions? Send them my way at Chris.Towers@Paramount.com with the subject line "#AskFFT" to be included in a future edition of the newsletter -- and if I don't include it in the newsletter, there's a pretty good chance I'll answer directly. Here are this week's questions: | | Jenny: I'm super WR-heavy on my team. I have Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Puca Nacua, Tank Dell, and now I have to move Copper Cupp up from reserve. Would you ever play both Cupp and Nacua? What do I do with all my talent? I hate to get rid of any of them. | | The first question I have in response to this specific version of this question is, "How many WRs can you start?" If it's a three-WR league, I think you probably just stand pat, starting Jefferson, Lamb, Kupp, and Nacua every week they're active, and don't think too hard about it. | | To answer more broadly, because we got several variations on the "Can I start Nacua and Kupp together?" question yesterday: I understand having concerns about two players in the same passing game, but I'll just share my go-to stat on this topic: When Cooper Kupp averaged 26.2 PPR points per game in the first nine games of the 2021 season, Robert Woods was still good for 15.6. Honestly, that might be my expectation for Nacua moving forward, while Kupp is likely to come in somewhere south of there but should still be an elite option if he can stay healthy. | | Of course, you do take on compounded risk by being that reliant on two guys from the same receiving corps. If Matthew Stafford has a bad game, it's going to impact two of your starters; if he gets hurt, it could sink them both. But in this instance, you're insulated from a lot of that risk because Jefferson and Lamb are also elite options. | | To get back to this specific permutation: Hey, I like Dell quite a bit, too. If he's my No. 3 WR, I feel OK about it; if he's my No. 4, I'm thrilled. He'd be your No. 5, which is incredible, and provides further insulation from any Rams-related risk. If you need an upgrade elsewhere on your roster, I think it's perfectly fine to move one of these guys, and I'd probably lean toward Kupp being the one I shop, because there's a chance this is the highest his value will ever be, whether because he just isn't the same guy he once was or because the risk of re-injury is high as he works his way back. I'd need top-12 receiver value back for him; maybe a Keenan Allen one-for-one deal if you can survive without him this week, or maybe buy low on Saquon Barkley. | | Tim: Which RB should I try to trade and what WRs would be a good target (already have Jefferson)? Kyren Williams, De'Von Achane, Travis Etienne, Alexander Mattison, Brian Robinson. | | I think you've got several sell-high candidates here – I wrote about Williams and Mattison in that context in yesterday's newsletter. With Mattison, it's more like a, "Get out before the bottom falls out" situation, while with Williams, I mostly just don't know how sustainable what he's done has been. Mattison would be fairly easy to get rid of as a result, and I'd be willing to move him for an upside shot on someone like Jordan Addison or a buy-low on Tyler Lockett or Terry McLaurin. | | With Williams – and we can probably throw Robinson in there, because I think he's probably due for worse days moving forward, and would be valued more than he probably should be – I would need a pretty significant haul if I were to move him. Williams probably needs to be valued like a top-12 RB the rest of the way right now, which means I'm shopping near the upper echelon of wide receivers. I'd move him for the upside shot on Kupp, or a buy-low on Chris Olave – his struggles in Week 4 were more about Derek Carr's shoulder injury than anything else, I believe. DeVonta Smith or Deebo Samuel would also be fine targets for Williams. | | Eddie: What's the hold ranking for rookies or guys we were hyped for coming into the season (who haven't produced yet) now that byes are starting? Roster crunch will get real and some people will want to still hold upside. | | There's no easy way to answer this question across the board, because everyone's roster is different, but I want to give it a try. Right now, there are 30 players who had an ADP inside the top 175 in NFC drafts and currently have 15 or fewer points in 0.5PPR leagues, which is an arbitrary distinction but should help us whittle the list down. Some of those players, like Kupp or Taylor are no-doubt-about-it stashes; some, like Alvin Kamara or Christian Watson, owe their low point total to not playing much yet. So we can remove a decent number of them right off the top. | | Here's how I'd categorize the rest, in no specific order: | | Definitely stashing: Jameson Williams, Diontae Johnson, Christian Watson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Zay JonesI'd prefer to stash: Kendre Miller, Quentin Johnston, Tank Bigsby, Treylon Burks, Dalvin Cook, Zach Charbonnet, Cam AkersLet 'em go: Rashaad Penny, Greg Dulcich, D'Onta Foreman, Elijah Mitchell, Jamaal Williams, Rashod Bateman, Juwan Johnson, Kadarius Toney, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Brandin Cooks, J.K. Dobbins, Jalin Hyatt, Chigoziem Okonkwo, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Jonathan Mingo, Antonio Gibson | | That is hardly an exhaustive list, but I think it's a pretty good one. The key takeaway? There aren't that many of those guys who are truly must-stash at this point. | | Carl: What is your advice for handling two top QBs on your roster? I have Anthony Richardson and Tua Tagovailoa on the same 1QB team. Do I try to trade one or keep them both and play the better match up each week? | | My ideal roster build has one high-end QB who I never have to think about sitting outside of his bye week. If I have two of those guys, my preference is to move one for a big return, because I'd rather take the risk of injury than try to figure out which one is worth starting every week – you should generally try to avoid coin-flip lineup decisions if you can. | | In this specific instance, unfortunately, I don't necessarily think you have the luxury to do that. Tagovailoa is, in my eyes, a no-doubt-about-it starter every week … until he isn't. Every player has injury risk, and I tend to be more agnostic than most about that, but in Tagovailoa's case, we have a history of serious concussions that seemingly led to real conversations about whether he should continue playing. That doesn't mean Tagovailoa is fated to suffer more in the future, but it does likely mean he has increased risk of sustaining a concussion and increased risk of a multi-week absence as a result of one. Which means if I have him, my strong preference is to keep another QB I can trust on the roster. You have one in Richardson, who should probably be on the bench more often than not behind Tagovailoa moving forward, but who I would feel comfortable starting if something happened to Tua. | | Steve: Why does everyone seem to still rank Dameon Pierce below Miles Sanders? I just traded for the former because I can't stand starting the latter any more. Am I wrong thinking Houston has a better OL and Pierce a higher ceiling despite a slow start? | | Given Houston's injuries along the line – they lost another OL starter to an indefinite absence this week – I definitely don't agree that they've got a stronger line than Carolina right now. | | But the bigger issue here is that I just think Sanders' role is a lot more valuable than Pierce's. Both should be in the 15-carry range most weeks, but Sanders has been targeted more than twice as often so far this season. Sanders isn't a great pass-catcher, so that usage could go away at any point, but I do feel pretty confident he'll have a bigger role in the passing game than Pierce, who hasn't been a great pass-catcher himself. | | Pierce has the edge in terms of the quality of the offense around him right now, but I do think the Panthers will improve as the season goes on. The one red flag for Sanders was that he split work evenly with Chuba Hubbard in Week 4 – my sense is that was because Sanders was limited by a groin injury in the week of practice leading up to the game, but if he's in a committee, it'll be a lot tougher to trust him. | | But ultimately, I think Sanders is the more talented player, and his passing game role gives him a clearer path to an RB1 outcome in any given week, whereas it feels like Pierce probably needs to score to hit that kind of upside. | | | | | | | | Damian Lillard Jerseys | | The Early Edge | Join the revolution and proudly sport the future of Milwaukee Bucks and their new superstar point guard!
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